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Hael

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  1. Our future personnel situation isn't exactly rosy, given that we've failed so many drafts and that our FAs tend to be on the older side, and Mac just gambled a sizeable amount of money on a lot of question marks. On the other hand its not terrible either. We aren't in cap hell, we have a young franchise QB and a few young cornerstone pieces here and there. It could turn out well, but it could also end in disaster, which puts us par for the course with a lot of other teams in the NFL. It's almost impossible to predict these things. So much depends on getting the right front office and coaching staff in place and achieving long term continuity and consistency.
  2. Honestly, other than Mosley those are all serious question marks. We don’t know if Bell goes back to his old form, or if Williams will be any good. Crowder needs to show chemistry with Darnold and that he can function in a new system etc etc i never make too many assumptions so far from training camp. Historically there are always surprising cuts to would be stars.
  3. I think 8-8 is realistic +- a game depending on injuries/coaches/luck/Darnold. This team has a lot less talent than people claim we have, and everyone is learning new schemes. It will likely take time to gel. But I agree with the poster above who said that at the end of the day, its all about Darnold. Bad QB play can lose a lot of winnable games in a hurry, and is the main difference between the W/L between the 2017 and 2018 squads (the much maligned McCown had a much better season than Darnold's rookie year). I have a good deal of faith that he is going to show some serious progress, and will push us into the playoff discussion. A lot will depend on how good our new schemes are. Last year's offense was just completely embarrassing.
  4. Clowney is sort of interesting as a player in terms of expectations vs reality. He is exactly the opposite of what was advertised, namely a splashy edge who makes spectacular plays but has a lot of downtime b/c of a suspect motor. Instead, he's the opposite, he doesn't make as many splashy plays, but he is consistently disruptive, plays fundamentally sound D and is one of the best run defenders at the edge in the league. For some reasons his pass rush moves are still a problem, and he doesn't win 1-1s vs elite Olines as much as one might have expected.
  5. I don't see it. The Patriots are a sidegrade from last year but even that is not so clear. They had a very good draft where they restocked on talent, but this means they will have a lot of rookie mistakes costing games. The flipside is they've turned into a matchup nightmare for the rest of the east. They currently have the best secondary in the league, and they have a roster of very large human beings as skill players. You can count on Gronk coming back at one point, and that means you have to face 6-3 Nkeal, Demaryius Thomas, Josh Gordon and Gronk potentially all on the field at the same time. We don't have the size in our secondary to matchup against that numerically speaking. It's going to mean that one of our lbs is going to have to take on James White. It also means that they're likely going to do the same shenanigans they did with Patterson last year, where they would shift him into a RB and create instant problems against teams with too many undersized cbs on the field. So expect them to lose some games early, but they'll probably be at the same point 11-5, 12-4 as per usual. Meanwhile our schedule is pretty brutal, with must win trap games everywhere, and with potentially very improved opponents. For instance, the Browns massively outtalent us top to bottom and many people are penciling that in as a a win, even though we have a new O and D system? We have a lot more veterans on our roster than we used too, so that probably means we tighten things up a bit mistake wise, but a few injuries to key players and this team can sink fast.
  6. Depth at almost every position. Injuries happen, and we have a massively top heavy roster (which is the opposite of what you want in this day and age). Other than that, I have zero faith in our OL. I need to see it to believe it.
  7. It's interesting to note how much cap space is valued as well. Two years ago, the Browns traded for Brock Osweiller for 16 million dollars in cap space for a late 2. So when a team hands you a bad contract, they're also effectively giving you a quantity that can be directly translated into draft value.
  8. Nope, not in net value! The 2 we got was a late round pick, b/c of Seattles record. We swapped 7th rounders (which is like a late six for a late 7). That's 14 points in standard trade value off the chart. The pushes our late 2 value well into low to mid 3rd round range. The addition of Kearse (which was viewed as a negative) was us moving a few places lower in the third. This is just how GM's think in this league. It's all translated into net draft value.
  9. It was much less good than advertised, and we got somewhat lucky. The Kearse piece was actually us paying Seattle in 'value' to take him off the roster b/c they didn't want his overpriced contract. The Richardson part was actually the equivalent of a late 3rd pick in draft value (we swapped late round picks). Kearse played really well that first season b/c he was slighted, but his salary was definitely a net negative last season. So it's a wash. End of the day, we got about expected value from the trade (Richardson for a late 3), which we would have got anyway in comp draft value. Meanwhile Sheldon has been average on the teams he's been on (i'm not entirely sure what happened to that guy, he was so good his first two years). So it's a whole lot of meh at the end of the day.
  10. Marino had the great throwing ability no doubt. He was probably the best pure thrower of all time, right up there with Aaron Rogers. He had an unbelievably quick release, a huge arm and top tier accuracy (maybe not quite as good as Brady/Montana but still excellent) But he didn't dissect a defense presnap like Montana or Brady, and was prone to making more 'wrong' decisions. He also lacked a lot of intangibles, like Montana's mobility and ability to throw on the run or Brady's ability to slide in the pocket. Even early on (eg 1985) when Marino was breaking all those passing records, I still considered him the second best qb in the league. Its a lot like Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady in the early years. Brady was always better, if you could see beyond the stats to what was actually taking place on the tape (and what ultimately matters more in the playoffs). There's a reason Peyton fizzled so many times in the playoffs.
  11. Watched almost all of them. Brady and Montana are significantly better than the rest. Aaron Rogers is probably third, but he needs a little more playoff success. At no point in time was Marino, Favre, Manning, Brees, Young, Bradshaw, or Elway anywhere near that group. They’re all damn good, just not that good. Players like Unitas, Starr and Fran Tarketon are hard to categorize. They were amazing, but their primes were in eras that were so different than what we are comparing to
  12. Leo was doubled less than Anderson actually and was doubled at a rate that wasn’t particularly high for his position, or for his status as a team’s best lineman. PFF has him as the 30th best interior lineman last year and if I recall he was 24th the year before. That’s not bad, and it is valuable to have an above average starting caliber player with a lot of upside. Still, he will be expensive and it’s unclear what his real price point should be. It’s also clear that there are much better quality price options in the NFL. Look no further than Anderson.
  13. Forget about the illegal stuff. These guys take massive amounts of painkillers before games, have prescriptions for ADHD meds like Ritalin (which is like Cocaine when you take a lot of it) and take so many stimulants that they're wired to the hilt without an inch of feeling in their bodies come game time. That's in many ways more important performance wise than the pure strength and muscle builders/cardio boosters b/c it allows them to go full speed without a regard for anything.
  14. Trade compensation for Leo would be roughly what we got for Sheldon Richardson (who had more production). Eg a net third rounder (in Sheldon's case we got a 2nd and swapped picks to bring the draft value to a mid third)
  15. Timing matters here. Our new GM search is now considerably harder than it was before. Instead of picking the best candidate, we now need to pick a candidate who is both available, ok with having Gase as their coach, as well as one who is decidedly aware that NYJ is the place where coaches and GMs come to die. Further, every player currently on the roster is now subject to being purged by any new regime. Even including untouchables like Darnold. Don't think it can happen? Look no further than the Redskins. It's also a really poor look for the franchise. If we believed that Mac was doing his job (and that the offseason was a success), then it means that he was fired b/c his own hand picked coach turned on him (or that the front office turned on him on a whim). Alternatively, if he wasn't doing his job, why was he kept for so long? In both cases, it paints a very bleak picture of the process going on within the FO. In the meantime, we have an inexperienced GM running things, we potentially have a bunch of players that don't fit our new coaches system (which was what seemed to be the problem that led to this situation in the first place), and we have a coach who is essentially unaccountable b/c they're not 'his guys' for at least a few years. So yes, it matters.

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