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About Hael

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  1. The level of delusion is great it seems. Much of our roster is gone next year and we have fans talking about AFCE contention.... No, we are not ok. Objectively too. We don’t have the assets to turn it around in FA unless we hit on about 8 Brian Poole level success stories (eg chronically underrated talents that are cheap and that perform at a high level). That almost never happens.. it’s usualy about one or two per year max. Meanwhile we have to hope that our own players don’t regress (again that almost never happens). Every year u have guys that don’t play as well as they used too. its also unclear how much coaching turnaround there is... Im just tired of of the same story year after year. Hype a mediocre squad to death before they even get a chance. Then piss and moan after the first game of the season ruins the party. The same silly story has been played for the last several years. then we start fire the coach/GM/everyone over reactions which are just as bad since the front office laughably pays attention to this, and we end up with zero continuity year after year.
  2. There's no way around it, we are at least two years from some sort of resolution for this team. I should call it stabilization. We don't have the money to quick fix the team alla 2015 with high priced FAs. We've tried that two years in a row, and it didn't work and now we've run out of options on that front. Olines and the skill players- qb connection don't get continuity over night and almost never in a single year (unless there is a lot of stabilizing pieces in place prior), and new rookies take time to develop. We've also missed Darnold's rookie window and will likely have to pay him before we are in playoff contention. If you look at the teams around the league that are winning right now, their best units have all been under the same system and with the same core personnel packages for at least 2-3 years. See KC offense, or the SF defense, or the Pats defense. So yea, a rebuild is incoming and there is considerable uncertainty in the front office/gm/coaches and personel groups going forward. In short, a fairly typical bottom of the barrel team state with the one bright spot that the QB position likely will have some stability for 4 or 5 years (and lets pray that works out like we all hope).
  3. The Giants essentially paid the difference between a top 5 third rounder in next years draft vs a comp pick at the end of the third round the following year. You can think of the extra fourth or fifth as the price we pay to eat his contract. Still that’s like moving up 60 spots in the draft, and is significant value added. That’s like trading a fifth round pick for a third round pick in value. Its not worth it if the player was a great talent that you lose... but I don’t think LW was that level of player. He’s a good but not great starter with upside.
  4. QW with the elite moves against the Dolphins CFL OL. It’s stat day! Oh wait...
  5. I still fault the competitive rebuild in 2015 the most. Pretty much everything that got him exec of the year considerations. How to tank a rebuild before it even begins... sign aging, massively overpriced, locker room cancers to long deals all the while ignoring youth, cap discipline and chemistry. Great work!
  6. It’s really hard to name a single person other than Darnold that will for sure be here in three years. Maybe QW? Maybe Mosley? Maybe Adams/Maye? Our roster is almost entirely compromised of players that are either bad, discontent, overpriced, or passing their prime now. Moreover the players that are good and currently cheap aren’t locked away for very long and will likely depart with big contracts at some point. It’s just a god awful foundation after what was five years of rebuilding. Pretty much one of the worst GMing jobs in modern NFL history.
  7. Funny, I actually think he’s playing well. Most of the incompletions are passes he’s throwing to a spot.. a spot where he expects a receiver but no one shows. The system they run requires the receivers to make reads and when they don’t make the same read he does, it leads to the sort of confusion you see. It’s the same reason backup QBs typically perform so badly.. it takes a lot of reps to build a rapport and confidence with your skill positions. This even before we get into the nitty gritty of whether the receiver can get open and run or catch.
  8. I was pretty high on this guy as well as Chase Winovich. We had a choice between those two and Polite, so of course we picked Polite.. Now they're both on track for 10+ sacks this season.
  9. You want better than 2nd string grades for your starting LT in this league. 64 is pretty bad. We are cash strapped in FA so overpaying for a marginal talent isn’t something that I’d advise. Honestly at this point trading draft assets for a bonafide LT might be the only way we get something serviceable. Of course we could gamble on a first rnd rookie, but if that doesn’t pay off for awhile (and it rarely does as a rookie) Sam will be under the same sort of catastrophic duress next year, and that’s not really something you want with your franchise qb. It leads to all sorts of bad habits.
  10. At the beginning of the year, I thought we would be 7-9. WIth the way the early season started, that looked optimistic, however with the recent momentum, I think that it's achievable. Buffalo, Oakland and the Ravens are fundamentally better than we are, and the Steelers are roughly equivalent. So pencil in two easy wins against Miami and Cinci. The question is, do we beat the Steelers and pull an upset against one of the remaining three? I think we do. 7-9!
  11. Beachum made about ~8 million per year during his last contract Shell will be looking to get paid after his rookie contract. Alex Lewis was ~ 2 million per year, he will want much more. Winters has a 7.2 million cap hit next year. He's definitely gone. None of those guys are really worth the money they're going to ask for in FA except maybe Lewis. If you look at production per dollar spent, it's pretty abysmal and its very hard to get relatively young guys to take a paycut (and they won't) until after they test free agency. So yea, its going to basically be Edoga and a completely new team. Expect them to go after a high priced LT as their one big splash FA signing, and the rest will likely be super old vets on their final one year contracts to try to keep prices down and possibly a large amount of rookies (b/c we are really badly cap strapped due to the amount of people we will have to replace via FA). When you actually sit down and start putting numbers in to this mess, you quickly see just how dire the cap situation is. Next year's team is going to be even more paper thin than this years, as we will necessarily need to include a huge amount of rookies and FAs signed post draft.
  12. We've actually been pretty lucky with injuries the last few years. This year is probably a little above average for an NFL team, but then again i've seen far worse. Made worse of course by the glaring lack of roster depth. Of course, with the recent public issues our medical staff have been having, let's just say my confidence isn't super high in their abilities.
  13. Adams has a cap hit of ~7 million dollars in 2020 making him one of the highest paid safeties in the league and is in the final year of his rookie contract, unless we resign him to a 5th. He has a dead money cap hit of 3.6 million in 2020. If we traded him for a pick, a middle of the pack starting caliber S in FA is roughly 4 million per yr (maybe we get that for 5-6 Mil in FA b/c contracts are always inflated). So you'd actually lose about 1.6-2.6 million in cap space from that operation. B/c we are going to be so cap strapped trying to resign everyone, i'm not sure if our GM will pull the trigger on any such deal. If he did, it might come midseason to lesson the cap hit.
  14. It does in the sense that had they not signed them, that money would have carried over into additional cap space in the following year. There is no free lunch in the NFL. Having said that, one year rentals are usually not the problem. It's more the dead money that comes when we trade or cut players with many years left on their contract that then have to be replaced by new players that demand just as much. Tru is a great example of this. Cutting him next year essentially costs double, b/c we'll need to replace him with a new pricey CB1 in FA.
  15. I could understand resigning Jenkins. He might take a team friendly deal, and he is probably underrated by the league.. But Robbie Anderson is overrated by many teams, would almost assuredly not take a team friendly deal after the trade deadline fiasco, and is going to be overpaid in the offseason. I'm also not so sure he fits well in Gase's system. We won't be able to afford Poole, who is going to cash in on a very good season and its not like he is an under the radar player. Its also not clear if you want to spend that type of money on a slot cb. I was looking at overthecap numbers and doing some simple math on how much money we actually have to spend, and it's considerably worse than I thought (despite first appearances). Getting 3 or 4 average to below average OL starters in free agency and a CB1 is going to absolutely kill our cap space, even if they take under market value deals. There is going to be a ton of jags on the roster next year, and depth will again be a problem as we're going to have to rely on a lot of rookies. We don't really have any money for luxury FAs either, much less overpaying our own guys. There is also the lingering QB2 problem. We're probably going to have to spend some money on a solid backup qb next season to avoid this seasons snafu... If we do that, then there really is no room to maneuver unless you push the money into the following season, and that's not something you usually want to do in a rebuild year.

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