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Everything posted by Hael

  1. The past two years, I figured our ceiling was .400-.500, but it was more a dream than anything. Injury removed all chance of that last year, and the previous year would have required Darnold turning into a franchise qb but otherwise would have needed a miracle b/c of how bad the talent/cap situation was (thanks Mac). This year, I actually think .500 is doable. Schedule is rough, and true we have a ton of rookies/1yr players but then injuries change everything in the NFL, and we have a deep enough roster to compete in the grindy months. Playoffs, is probably not going to happen, our franchise qb isn't anywhere near good enough yet (and it just takes a lot of time and reps to get it). But I do think a late season surge is possible for us, and that we could (if ZW cooperates) turn into a playoff team the following season.
  2. I like being a homer for players that are actively playing well, and that deserve some hype. I consistently hyped Fatukasi 2 years ago as an example, and Fant and Berrios last year. They were actually playing at a pretty strong lvl by NFL starter standards. Meanwhile we had guys homering for our rookie QB (b/c we always homer for our rookies), and were actively blaming these same players for his struggles and were talking about cutting them after week1. It's like. No. Fant blocked that guy about as well as you can block him. Its not his fault if ZW did a scramble drill .1 seconds into a pass play and didn't throw the ball away, despite running around for 5+ seconds. And of course we have the usual overrated guys, like QW (or Leonard Williams before him). Who were constantly hyped beyond what they were doing. I've been burned by one too many of those these past ten years...
  3. This. We have a very full roster of young players, and more will be coming in next years draft. Lawson and Davis already have replacements on the roster, and Mosley did not play well last year and is on the downward trajectory of his career. Absent a rare career resurgence, I just don't see any of these guys surviving what is turning out to be a pretty competitive roster.
  4. The way I see it, is that players like Burrow basically have 2+ years on ZW in terms of experience due to their collegiate careers. Thats a lot to catch up. So maybe halfway through the season ZW might be able to get to something approximating Burrows rookie campaign level? Is that enough to reach the playoffs? Probably too little too late, but thats basically the sort of progression I want to see.
  5. It doesn't help when you watch the season drop tape compilation and realize that a good chunk of that came from ZW rifling balls at 60 mph to wide open receivers 6 feet away. I remember that Favre used to have this issue with a lot of his receivers, and he was definitely guilty of some of the same things. To be fair, its not all on ZW. Corey Davis in particular had a bad case of not coming down with the ball and there were a number of bad game altering drops last season that they simply have to get better on.
  6. I don't even remember the last time a CB was 'can't miss'. Patrick Peterson maybe? Sauce is a solid pick, but he is definitely not 'can't miss' and he certainly has some issues. I expect him to struggle a bit early on, but then maybe have some great games against his favorable physical matchups (eg big receivers). As the year goes on, I expect him to refine his ability to read routes, and then hopefully he can take the next step.
  7. The notion that Jets WRs were not open is a myth. NY Jets WRs in 2021 were open a lot, and consistently ranked amongst the most open in the NFL. https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation Berrios was amongst the league leaders in separation (tied for 2nd). Crowder and Moore were also completely elite. Corey Davis and Keelan Cole also came in at very respectable numbers (better than AJ Brown, DK Metcalf and Odell Beckham). If you watch the tape, there are guys that are wide open all over the field. Zach just misses them b/c he was a 1 read guy last season. Safeties start to cheat when a QB is incapable of going through his progressions, and well thats what happened.
  8. Basically our entire lbing core looked like they were a step slow off the go and weren't diagnosing plays properly. They were hitting rbs a yard or two upstream compared to what I thought the system asked for.. It came as a bit of a surprise when the coaching staff blamed the DTs, b/c for the most part they looked like they were doing their jobs to me. Eg getting downfield, (gap integrity isn't exactly their main focus in this scheme). But yea, you can't really play like that. You can't have passive lbers and aggressive DTs, it seems to naturally lead to the sort of run breakdowns we saw last year. As far as Quincy Williams, he definitely looked like he took a bunch of bad angles, and was exposed multiple times in the passing game. He just made a bunch of really nice open field tackles where he showed off his range and hitting power.
  9. I can't wait for training camp to start. I hate this part of the year, where its all hot takes, puff stories and recycled opinion content from the draft weekend
  10. IMO Reagor is the biggest bust so far. Ruggs and Jeudy were both beginning to show off when injury/off field stuff came into play. Reagor definitely surprised me, I thought he would be much better than he is. Its a bit of a learning lesson too. If you are a 5’11 wr, you better have either amazing route running, speed or hands. You can’t just be average.
  11. Sauce should do very well against the bigger receivers. His straight line speed and length should match up well. The shifty quick guys are going to be a problem, and the polished route runners are also likely going to be a problem.
  12. First four games I also think we can go 2-2 if Saleh really coaches them up during the offseason. The next 5 are brutal though, and if we get 1 win i'd be happy (1-4). The next four after that I think we can split (2-2). Final 4 games is where we can really make the season. 4-0. So that's 9 wins. That seems strangely realistic. Of course much will depend on injury at that point, as is the norm in the NFL. The worry is our QB.. He has to be unbelievably consistent in order to achieve that goal. He can't have an off game where he throws 4 ints and we lose to something like the Jags. Indeed he will likely need to put the team on his back for a game or two against a superior team (maybe a split against NE or Miami for instance) and eek out a hard win. I foresee a lot of close games. Always like this with young teams. They have to learn how to win first.
  13. Mmm, not sure I like the thought of our ILBs trying to catch Lamar Jackson in space. But overall, I actually think we have a semi decent chance b/c of how their D is a big unknown, and likely hasn’t gelled yet. I think we could catch them in some busted coverages. They don’t scare me like they used too.
  14. Pretty obvious really. JD >>>> Saleh >>>> Zach It takes a few years for a system to really be implemented and to become team wide memory, and I dont expect things to be all smooth sailing this year either. IMO Salehs hot seat if things dont work out is really end of next year and the following season. JD has expertly delivered a tear down and has done 75% of the job in bringing in new blood that fits the new scheme. A+ grade, I dont think there is a GM in the league that could have done more in such a short amount of time given the constraints he was under. ZW.. Not impressed at all, his rookie year was flat out atrocious, and the flashes I saw were problematic from a reproducability stand point. He’s basically just raw undeveloped arm talent and some ok athleticism. I personally think the best case is like a 3-4 year project, but hope to be wrong. My injury prognosis for him is very high.
  15. Mac was the worst GM I have ever seen, and it was obvious within the first months of his tenure. The thing with cap money is you can play games, where you take from the future to buy success in the present. Theres a ton of ‘transfer’ tricks you can play. But still at the end of the day, in a 5 year period you only have the total cap amount to play with…. You cant keep borrowing forever. Bad GMs use this to give themselves ‘good’ years, that appeal to the fans and management. Mac did this almost every year of his tenure, and the hilarious thing is that he failed every single year in getting anywhere. So despite the fact that he had all these crappy contracts who’s stench was pushed into the distant future, he still utterly failed in getting anywhere. That folks, is complete ineptitude at a scale we have never seen before. Joe D had three years of this nonsense to deal with (and still has Mosley’s crappy contract).. Be sure that had at least some effect on our record under Joe D.
  16. The Pats, despite losing McDaniels has amongst the highest continuity of any team in the NFL. They almost always win their first few games, simply b/c they are better prepared. (Or rather I should say, most teams are a complete #$@!show early on in the modern NFL season). Also, given their qbs decided struggles in the cold (and comparing and contrasting his warm weather stats), we definitely want to play them late in the year.
  17. If I had to face anyone in the AFCE, its definitely the Dolphins. The loss of a coach forces a reshuffling of strategy and an adjustement period (they are also learning a new OL scheme). Later in the year, they will start to gel, and they out talent us, so I don't like our chances, but I think they can be had early.
  18. About 50% of these drops are on Zac. The Berrios drop to INT for instance is an almost impossible catch for a receiver to make and reminds me of many Brett Favre INTs. You have to take some mustard off the ball in certain angles to give the receiver a chance. Also when he's running and contorting around defenders, the balls he throws are frequently not tight spirals. NFL receivers are supposed to make those catches, but i mean it can be hard when the ball is bobbing around with weird spins. The remaining 50% are really bad, Davis in particular had some awful drops.
  19. Schedule will be massive for our win total I think. We want to play Buffalo and NE late in the year, but we want Miami early.
  20. People systematically underrate NEs talent. Its been the same story since the 2007 team, where every year it was (oh its just Brady or Coaching, the rest of the guys are bad). But then you look at who they had playing for them in hindsight, and you realize they were actually stacked. They were just young players who werent known at the time. I look at the 2022 patriots and I see a rather underrated O, but unlike previous years they have big question marks on D. Their secondary was the best overall unit in the NFL for the past 3 years. This year, I think they are at best middle of the pack, and maybe even a liability. And that more than anything else is a problem for them. M Jones is not going to win shootouts with teams. That team is built for low to mid scoring grind a thon games. If they cant cover I expect a few blowouts where the pundits go in hard about the prvious draft and so forth and im kinda hoping the pressure gets to M Jones.
  21. I wonder what the correlation between those scores and the ten year evals are? I remember thinking that the Browns crushed all of their drafts in the mid 2010s (along with all the pundits), but instead they produced some of the worst results ever assembled in the modern era.
  22. If you take ZW and Mac out of the equation, and just look at talent, I think Jets = NE < Miami < Buf. NE still has a better Oline/rbs than we do but their D has taken a step back and I think we now have better overall WR/TEs/DL. I don’t think their draft helped them much. Unfortunately I do think Mac is still a significantly better qb than ZW, so they probably will have a small edge. I’m hoping ZW can thin the divide a bit this year and maybe we can split games with them for once (I dont even remember the last time we were competitive with the Pats)
  23. I was a big fan of both of these picks, and given where they were had and how much draft capital the Ravens accrued.. Yea pretty flawless first round. I mean it may or may not work out (the draft is ultimately a crapshoot) but the logic and maneuvering was flawless. Overall, the Ravens are the 3rd in drafting over the past ten years and it shows: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/33297949/nfl-draft-which-teams-gotten-best-value-2012-rank-all-32#BAL
  24. Ojabo is basically a dr decision. If he comes back from injury properly, he might be considered the best edge in the draft in 3 years.
  25. My thoughts are the following. This was an exceptionally tough draft to navigate for a GM and I think it might go down as one of the great GM career killers, b/c the difference between pick 5 and pick 100 is very small (and there will be potential HOF players in this draft that are taken later). Sauce (or Eck) at 4 were the safe picks. You lose a little value b/c he probably would have gone a little higher in any other year (like 7-10), but Sauce is a great player and relatively safe pick at a position of need and it makes sense. Barring some sort of crazy trade down for a host of picks, I like the pick. I also think it was a pretty obvious one. Another implication is that it probably means they have more faith in Becton than reports led us to believe, b/c I do think Eck was the best player in the draft. Pick 10 is my least favorite. Garret Wilson is basically a Moore sidegrade, and i've been worried about the pick for months. He fits the offense, and is a solid player, but we definitely lose value here (compared to Moore in the 2nd). In another draft he probably goes like 20. He's not really going to transform your team either. A truly elite WR1 will continue to be a need for the Jets, but I do expect him to be a top 20 player barring injuries (and his frame makes injuries a problem) and that's ok I guess. Of course the JJ trade is the big crowd pleaser. He is a very good player that imo will be a better player than our pick10. Maybe not a truly transcendent edge, but we now have a pretty potent attack between Lawson, JJ and JFM. Now, could we have gotten him or something similar 10 picks later? The loss of a 3rd rounder in this draft sucks, b/c there are A LOT of talented players left that are not that far removed from JJ's caliber. I don't know. Overall, I give Douglas an A- and I like that he was relatively conservative with how he protected his draft value. He really is an excellent GM that understands how to balance things properly (and isn't completely careless with his picks like Idzik or incompetent like Mac).
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