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oc_jet

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  1. This. Same running play over and over or the same horizontal pass play. Did we even throw downfield once? Disgusted with Bates
  2. oc_jet

    Jets Minicamp Day 3

    What might have Hernandez done to have pissed him that much? You dont slug someone for no reason..,
  3. oc_jet

    Can we talk receivers?

    Our SOJF are selling our WR core short. In the thread about Pryor in late March. I posted the following four numbered assessments below. First, the Jets had two top 30 WRs in 2017. Stop stating that Anderson and Kearse are JAGs. It aint true. They both ran a large amount of the route tree and are not one trick ponies. Contrary to popular belief, we dont need a true WR1 yet. Secondly, for the first time in a long while, the Jets have a solid and diverse WR core, who have all demonstrated success on the field. They may not be stars, but they are effective. The Jets will become a mismatch nightmare for teams in 2018. Third, all of my former assessments didnt include Enunwa, who would be yet another weapon that defenses would have to account for. With 4-5 capable WRs on the field at any given time, someone should always be open. Third, realize that Pryor is a freak. He is huge, very fast and will demand CB1 coverage, which leaves CB2 on Anderson. Otherwise, having a CB2 on Pryor will be a mismatch, leaving CB3 on Kearse or Enunwa. Fourth, the wild cards are the RBs, the TEs and D Flowers. If any of these guys show any real talent and the ability to consistently catch passes, they will create added space for all the other parts of the offense. I dont know about you, but I am excited to see what these guys can do. Plus, we now have the "Savior" in Darnold. His skill set, talent and anticipation will make everyone around him better performers. I think his mere presence on the team will elevate the offense and the QB room. They all know he is anointed, so everyone will have to step up their game, else he will be starting soon... 1. This is very good analysis of Pryor's skill set is and exactly how he can help the JETS and himself in 2018. If he remains healthy and plays like he did in his best Browns year, the JETS will be a dangerous team. Someone will always be open. 2. Tom Capone1 day ago From what I've read, Pryor was struggling to read defenses in Washington and when running an option route him and Kirk weren't on the same page, he should have more success here cause we don't have our receivers do that. 3. If you look at the JETS receiving last year, both Kearse and Anderson were top 30 WR in 2017 and got almost 1,000 yards. I think we all are selling these guys talents short. With the addition of Pryor, that rounds out the WR corps. With Kearse as the slot WR, Anderson as wide out (X) and Pryor as flanker (Z), you now have three different skill sets operating each of the zones on the field. Further all of these guys have experience at the other WR positions, making mismatches more likely. This a much more balanced WR corp than since the days of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. Plus none of these guys are slow, with clocked 40 times of 4.34 RA, 4.38 TP and 4.43 for JK. Couple that with the 6'5" , 230 lb "Megatron-like" size of Pryor, portends that the Jets should be a harder team to defend. Jermaine Kearse 65 810 12.5 51 5 Robby Anderson 63 941 14.9 69 7 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 50 357 7.1 28 3 Matt Forte 37 293 7.9 34 1 Bilal Powell 23 170 7.4 31 0 Jeremy Kerley 22 217 9.9 31 1 Elijah McGuire 17 177 10.4 38 1 Chad Hansen 9 94 10.4 24 0 Eric Tomlinson 8 121 15.1 34 1 Neal Sterling 6 82 13.7 35 0 If you study the route tree of each of these WRs, you can see exactly where they have been most effective https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/robby-anderson/AND460305 https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/terrelle-pryor/PRY474541 https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/jermaine-kearse/KEA511674/season Our 3rd receiver last year was a statue... ASJ, who only averaged 7 yards per catch. If Tomlinson and/or Sterling or Leggett or whoever the Jets eventually pick up are able to attain reasonably similar numbers the Jets will improve. 4. McCown threw 398 times in 13 games for 2926 yards. Petty threw another 112 times for a Jets season total of 510 attempts. Anderson had 114 targets whilst Kearse had 102. Pryor in his best year with Cleveland had 140 attempts out of 460 attempts, catching 77 or 55%. Similarly, Anderson caught 55% and Kearse caught 63% of their respective targets. The RB crew had roughly 20% of Jets targets or 105. So, assuming the Jets throw 500 times in 2018. And assume that no one receiver dominates the way Pryor did with the Browns, it would be reasonable to expect that 100 targets each or 6.5 per game is very possible. If history repeats and they all maintained their historical catching and yards per catch percentages of 13.1, 14.9 and 12.5 respectively, we could project the following from each: Pryor 100 55 720 Anderson 100 55 820 Kearse 100 63 787 The wild cards in this scenario are 1. Will Anderson be suspended? 2. How will Pryor be used in the red zone? If he picks up where Brandon Marshall left off , that will open up even more the spacing that the Jets offense will be allowed by defenses. If Pryor can achieve these numbers with another 5-7 touchdowns, I will be very happy. FYI, for all the NY "Browns" haters, Crowell is no slouch in the receiving department either, having caught 28 of 42 in 2017 and 40 of 53 in 2016. these are both very under-rated pickups, which should pay decent dividends in 2018.
  4. http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=1001689&draftyear=2018&genpos=ILB Wint is not fast but is a tackling machine. We will see if he can stick....
  5. very good, detailed pre-draft scouting report on Sam Darnold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmhRU5X7RIg
  6. oc_jet

    Tweets from Rookie Minicamp.

    Although the stats say say Fotukasi is supposed to be bigger than Shepherd, those stats lie. Shepherd is massive and has tree trunks for legs. Given those anchors, no wonder he was tossing the new Giants rookie OL around.
  7. oc_jet

    50 year curse over-Facts!

    Dude....you really had to go there. Hopefully YOU arent the jinx! Ya might think it... but you dont print it...
  8. oc_jet

    Grinders

    Wholeheartedly agree! I have read these same type of descriptions about all of the Jets new players. If this becomes the new culture for the whole team to play relentlessly to the whistle on every play, they will make great strides in 2018. All of these guys seem like athletic, physically strong, and very fast over- achievers. I hope that Bowles will take a clue from the Eagles and have waves of fresh interchangeable players to throw at opponents. The two new DTs in combination with the existing guys could epitomize this...I hope our dreams become reality
  9. The more that I learn about this kid, the more I like him. I also think how lucky JET fans are to have him and how smart in hindsight McC is for moving up to be in position to get him.
  10. Good call!!! The top pick WAS the Jets draft board!!!! LOL
  11. http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2018/04/nfl_draft_2018_sam_darnold_scouting_report_next_br.html NFL Draft 2018: Sam Darnold scouting report | Next Brett Favre? 'Coolest human you will ever meet' Posted April 26, 2018 at 08:29 PM | Updated April 26, 2018 at 11:16 PM 0 Comment Zack Rosenblatt | NJ Advance Media By Ryan Dunleavy | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com Is Sam Darnold the next great NFL quarterback? Or the next great bust? Darnold is the quarterback most NFL Draft analysts identified as the top option in the 2018 NFL Draft, though reportedly not all teams agreed. That's the beauty of 32 different teams ranking prospects on a board in 32 different orders. Darnold toed the politically correct lines whenever he was asked where he wanted to play, but he now he knows his fate: He is joining Jets. Here is what the experts are saying about the "coolest human you will ever meet," including Brett Favre and Andrew Luck comparisons. Kelvin Kuo | AP Bob McGinn Football Bypassed two seasons of eligibility; won’t turn 21 until June. “He’s Mr. Cool under pressure,” said one scout. “Nothing rattles the kid. He’s a gamer. No situation is too big for him. He’s at his best in the big-time situations. In the clutch.” Completed 64.9% of 846 passes for an NFL passer rating of 103.4. “He needs to clean up some footwork and taking care of the ball,” said another scout. “But he’s going to be a player. He’s got some (bleep) you can’t coach. He’s the opposite of (Josh) Rosen. He’s a great kid. I think he’s a better locker-room guy. He has a very good arm. I was at the workout in the rain and it was impressive.” Didn’t fare as well statistically in 2017 as he did in ’16. Finished with 21 fumbles and 22 interceptions in just 24 starts. “I love the makeup and the character,” a third scout said. “He has play-making ability. He has toughness and poise. The turnovers are a major concern. He’s so jittery … scattered in the pocket. He’s not going to be able to keep getting away with that.” Scored 28 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test. Ran for 332 yards and seven touchdowns. “He’s Andrew Luck when Luck was a sophomore,” said a fourth scout. “He’s 100 percent football. He’s got hitches in his motion. Great athlete, strong arm. He makes some bad decisions.” From Capistrano Beach, Calif. “His arm’s not like (Brett) Favre’s but he has a little bit of that in him,” a fifth scout said. “He makes some throws on the move. Not real natural in the pocket yet. Best on the move.” ESPN Darnold couldn't have possibly lived up to the hype entering the 2017 season, especially when losing three offensive linemen to the NFL and both starting wideouts (including JuJu Smith-Schuster). There's no question that he developed some bad habits with his footwork (lazy/sloppy with lower-body at times) and ball security (dangling ball with one hand when moving in the pocket), but both are correctable. The bottom line is that Darnold is the most complete quarterback in the 2018 class and he has the type of makeup that most good NFL starters possess. Darnold grades out as a high-level NFL starting quarterback and he projects to be a top-five pick. NFL.com At the end of the day, Darnold has NFL size, arm strength, accuracy, pocket mobility, poise and field reading capability. His windup is an eyesore for sure, but he has the velocity to mitigate the additional release time. While Darnold has the mental toughness and talent to start tomorrow, early sideline seasoning could help him better process coverages in an attempt to eliminate future interceptions. Darnold has the tools to thrive in any system and doesn't have to have perfect protection to succeed. His floor is solid starter, but he has the ceiling to be one of the top tier quarterbacks in the game as he gains more experience. NFL Comparison: Andrew Luck Walter Football Across the league, Darold is the consensus top quarterback prospect even though he may not be the top pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. Darnold has a quality skill set with exceptional accuracy as a passer and the ability to throw on the move. His mobility and ability to create positive plays after blocking fails him is tremendous. Darnold is superb at throwing open receivers and leading them or hitting them in stride to set up yards after the catch. In the NFL, Darnold would be a great fit in a West Coast offense. Darnold is the safest quarterback prospect in the 2018 NFL Draft. He didn't throw at the NFL Scouting Combine, but he interviewed well with teams showing good recall and football IQ. At his pro day, Darnold put on a clinic, throwing accurate passes in the rain with excellent timing and anticipation. Of the top quarterback prospects, Darnold had the best pro-day performance. In 2017, Darnold completed 63 percent of his passes for 4,143 yards with 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He had an up-and-down season with too many turnovers - fumbles were a particular issue beyond the interceptions. Darnold also made some beautiful anticipatory throws with excellent accuracy in just about every game. Jae C. Hong | AP Matt Miller, Bleacher Report A two-year starter at USC, Sam Darnold is widely praised for his toughness, football IQ and leadership. A coach with the Trojans told me Darnold only cares about football and not the benefits of being a star quarterback. He did turn the ball over 22 times in 2017, which should at a minimum send scouts back to the tape to find the context of each turnover. But Darnold's tangible and intangible traits are tops in the class. DraftTek Strengths Great arm strength Prototypical size and build for a quarterback Impressive athlete for his size Cerebral player Calm and poise Displays NFL quarterback traits (Anticipation, Ball-Placement, Reads full field, Maneuvers in pocket without dropping his eyes) Weaknesses Limited experience A bit of a wind up in his motion Occasionally becomes a gunslinger Darryl Slater | NJ Advance Media Trent Dilfer, quarterback analyst “Darnold is the coolest human you will ever meet. He’s just cool. He can do anything. Sam Darnold could be the president. He’s just cooler than everybody you know. He is the coolest dude at the Super Bowl party, he is the coolest dude at the bar, he is the coolest dude at the basketball court. His teammates love him. Everybody loves him.” 10 final thoughts on NFL Draft: 'Scared for Josh Allen' in New York Mike Mayock, NFL Network "Darnold is my number one guy because I think he can beat you from both inside the pocket and outside the pocket. Your first pick has got to set the tone, and I think at the end of the day it will be Sam Darnold, and he's got a little Brett Favre in him, which I think John likes. John likes a little swagger. He'll make some mistakes and turn the ball over, but at the end of the day, that's what my gut tells me." Ryan Dunleavy | NJ Advance Media for NJ.com Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network "I've been on record for a long time saying I think Sam Darnold should be the pick for the Cleveland Browns. I think he's the right guy there. I personally think he's the best quarterback in his class. And I think he's, at 20 years old, is just scratching the surface of what he can do. "So that to me, coupled with him going through the process, he didn't throw at the combine so we'll see him at the pro day. And I thought it was a lights-out pro day, in the rain. Look, it wasn't a snowstorm. But you wanted to see how he spun the ball and it was wet out there, it was raining pretty good, and I thought he did a great job." Bucky Brooks, NFL Network "Sam Darnold is a guy who is an ultimate competitor, but when you're around him, he is humble, he kind of goes about his business, he just kind of goes to work."
  12. Yes, some will wilt and some will thrive. That is why the exercise of choosing a QB in the draft is such a crap shoot. The whole point of this analysis is to actually look at what these guys have actually done under specific circumstances to see how well they actually did. Yes, they all play in different conferences and under different systems. But they were all asked to do the same things within the confines of the game. This assessment is measuring how well they actually did that. While past is not always prologue, it is a good indicator of what someone is capable of. The troubling thing for me about Josh Allen is the comments made by Dan Orlovsky in that King podcast. Dan Orlovsky was a professional QB in the NFL for 12 years. Yes, he may have been a career backup, but he did not last that long without having some decent skills and without having learned something. He also played in a number of different systems behind some decent QBs. So, when he looks at a QB perform, he knows what he is looking at and what he is looking for. That he felt that Allen did not have " a plan" when he came to the line of scrimmage to deal with what the defense would throw at him is very telling. His wonderlic scores indicate that he is very smart but that may only be book smart. He doesnt appear to be "street smart" with the ability to figure things out quickly on the fly. Which is the exact skill needed to be a successful QB in the NFL.
  13. A long article analyzing the 2018 QBs. Same results as most other analysis is telling us...Mayfield's history of successful performance has the highest probability of being repeated and Allen is likely to repeat his mediocrity...or worse. Note: bolding is my highlighting key points. As much as most of the pundits keep talking up the other guys and talking down Mayfield, all the stat analysis, actual performance and history says Mayfield is the guy. How the top of this draft unfolds will be FASCINATING!!! And hopefully in a good way for us.... https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype There’s a new approach to NFL QB projections — and the 2018 draft class is in trouble Looking for a quarterback’s NFL ceiling? Look no further than college stats. By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Apr 5, 2018, 9:00am EDT According to Football Outsiders’ DYAR ratings — defense-adjusted yards above replacement — the top five NFL quarterbacks in 2017 were New England’s Tom Brady, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Philip Rivers, New Orleans’ Drew Brees, Minnesota’s Case Keenum, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger. Brady was a moderately successful two-year starter at Michigan and a sixth-round draft pick. Rivers was a record-setting four-year starter at NC State and a top-five pick. Brees was an undersized but prolific three-year starter out of an early version of the spread offense. He was picked in the second round. Keenum was an undrafted journeyman and former two-star recruit who threw for nearly 20,000 yards out of the spread in college but just bounced to his fourth team in six seasons in the NFL. Roethlisberger was a small-school star, a three-year college starter at Miami (Ohio), and a top-15 pick. Three power-conference players and two mid-major stars. Two top picks, a second-rounder, and two draft afterthoughts. Two former blue-chippers and three two- or three-star guys. Three players with perfect QB size and two undersized gunslingers. And lest you think experience was too much of a predictor here (since four of these five are up there in years), the No. 6 (Jared Goff) and 8 (Carson Wentz) QBs on the DYAR list were second-year guys, so that only goes so far as well. The top of this list of passers was low on indicators and high on symbolism. The simple truth: It’s really, really hard to identify good quarterbacks before they become good quarterbacks. Heading into the NFL Draft at the end of April, so much analysis always focuses on the idea of projection, on what a guy might be able to do, not necessarily what he’s done. This makes sense, of course, to a point — so much of success at any level is based on situation, scheme, and circumstance. The right coach, teammates, or system can make an immense difference, plus these guys haven’t faced NFL talent, with NFL coaching, before. Plenty of QBs with great college stats have bombed out in the pros, and plenty with merely good stats have thrived. NFL GMs can be forgiven for thinking that, once we get a kid in our system, it’s all gonna work out just fine. We can fix his flaws and maximize his talent. Stats will only tell you so much. They are, dare we say, for losers. If we look at the right stats, however, and do so from the right perspective, we can still get further down the road than we would get just relying on basic stats or the eye test. For instance, we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats. It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null. That is, he won’t match his rate stats. Keenum, for instance, isn’t throwing 50 times per game in the NFL like he did in his junior year at Houston, so his per-game yardage totals will be different. But things like completion rate, interception rate, etc., can be more telling. And success rate can be extremely telling. Success rate and IsoPPP (isolated points per play) have been go-to stats for a lot of my college analysis in recent years. Success rate is a common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not (the terms: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down). IsoPPP, meanwhile, looks at the magnitude of the successful plays in terms of expected points. As it turns out, the correlation between one’s success rate in college and in his first four years in the pros is around 0.272, better than other rate stats I experimented with. There are 38 quarterbacks who a) were drafted from an FBS school between 2010-17 and have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. This is not a huge group, and it overlooks players who either just entered the league, have battled injuries, or, of course, weren’t good enough to throw 300 passes in the league. Looking at college-to-pro results will always have limitations like that. We can still pretty clearly learn something from these 38 QBs. For starters, none of them exceeded their college success rate in their first four years in the pros*. * Why first four years? Because that’s generally how long a rookie contract lasts. If you pick a guy who’s going to need two or three years of grooming, you might lose him as soon as he becomes a viable player. Your college success rate is your ceiling. Almost the only guys who came the close to matching their college success rates were near the bottom: Brock Osweiler (45.4 percent success rate in college, 43.9 percent in first four NFL years) mostly sat the bench for three seasons, then parlayed a fourth-year surge into a lofty contract (and promptly fell apart). Jake Locker (40.0 percent / 38.3 percent) was the least efficient college QB in the sample and one of the least efficient in the pros. New Viking Kirk Cousins (48.5 percent / 46.1 percent), a fourth-round pick in 2012, also perhaps benefited from early-career bench time before thriving. We’ll see if his sparkly new contract ends up a better investment than Osweiler’s. Osweiler and Cousins got to sit and learn for a while before being sent into action. A lot of top draft picks, however, were given early playing time, both because of their potential and the fact that teams had invested top draft picks in them. For players like Jameis Winston (45.8 percent success rate in the pros), Cam Newton (42.6 percent in his first four years), and Marcus Mariota(43.4 percent), this has worked out pretty well. For others, like Gabbert (32.9 percent), Tim Tebow (35.8 percent), and, thus far, Mitchell Trubisky(34.0 percent), it has meant early exposure of all their flaws to opponents. Gabbert and Tebow never really recovered, but Goff (29.6 percent in his rookie year, 44.3 percent in his second) did. Jared Goff’s first season in the pros was a nightmare. His second ended in the Pro Bowl. Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports We don’t learn as much about the guys with great college efficiency as the ones with statistical deficiencies. Your success rate is going to sink as the degree of difficulty improves, and while the most efficient college quarterbacks have the best odds of pro efficiency, the variance is pretty high. But your ceiling is your ceiling, and even if this doesn’t say much about guys with obscene college stats, it says a ton about the Lockers and/or Blaine Gabberts of the world, the guys with mediocre stats and standout physical traits, the guys about whom scouts will say “Yeah, his stats aren’t that good, but I can fix him. Just look at that arm!” So what does this tell us about this year’s draft prospects? Less than amazing things. I’ve been very confused by the chatter about this being an amazing QB draft class. The buzz began before the 2017 season and continued despite Wyoming’s Josh Allen regressing drastically from a statistical perspective, UCLA’s Josh Rosen continuing to struggle with injuries, and USC’s Sam Darnold dealing with some turnoveritis. I have long suspected that this QB buzz has come in part because most of the truly best players in the draft play positions that don’t tend to warrant the top pick — running back (Saquon Barkley), offensive guard (Quenton Nelson), safety (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James), inside linebacker (Roquan Smith). That is to some degree understandable. But you have to add a lot of favorable context to these stats to convince yourself that this is even an above-average QB crop. Since the highest four-year pro success rate from any QB in this sample is 46.1 percent (from both Cousins and, thus far, Dak Prescott), and since 35 of 38 quarterbacks in our draft sample were at least three percentage points lower in the NFL than in college (most were much further away than that), let’s set an artificial bar at 49.1 percent. Those at or above that mark are the ones with Prescott-level early-career efficiency potential. Where do this year’s 13 primary QB prospects land? 2018 QB prospects with a career success rate of 49.1 percent or higher: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (54.8 percent) Sam Darnold, USC (52.0 percent) Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (50.0 percent) Logan Woodside*, Toledo (49.5 percent) Of the 38 players in the NFL sample, only Winston (57.1 percent) and Bradford (55.4) had higher career success rates in college than Mayfield. Winston’s first three seasons in the NFL have generated a 45.8 percent success rate; Bradford battled injury and a porous offensive line, generating a 37.2 percent success rate in his first two years before rising to 42.3 percent, near the league average (which is usually between 42.5 and 43 percent), in his next two. Again, since both were drafted so high, there was no sitting — they threw a combined 1,181 passes in their respective rookie seasons. Mayfield and Darnold will potentially be thrust into action just as quickly. Rudolph and Woodside, perhaps less so. * Note: these are raw stats, unadjusted for opponent, and we don’t have enough of a sample of QBs from mid-major schools to know how much of a difference to expect from that jump. But the guys in the sample — Colin Kaepernick (47.3 percent in college, 42.1 in the NFL), Andy Dalton (49.5, 42.6), Derek Carr (47.1, 41.0), and Blake Bortles (51.6, 39.6) — have made the statistical transition about the same as the power-conference guys. Baker Mayfield’s college stats were otherworldly. Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports Here are the 2018 QBs who came relatively close to that 49 percent mark: 2018 QB prospects with a career success rate within two percentage points of 49.1 percent: Riley Ferguson, Memphis (49.0 percent) Nick Stevens, Colorado State (48.9 percent) J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (48.6 percent) Luke Falk, Washington State (48.0 percent) Lamar Jackson, Louisville (47.4 percent) Mike White, WKU (47.4 percent) You can’t really get a conclusive read on prospects within this range, especially someone like Lamar Jackson, whose rushing ability is incredible. (I limited this look to just pass proficiency.) You can, however, draw some pretty stark, alarming conclusions about prospects in this range: 2018 QB prospects with a career success rate lower than 47.1 percent: Rosen (46.6 percent) Litton (45.2 percent) Allen (43.3 percent) Of the 38 QBs in our pro sample, only one (Osweiller) managed a league-average passing success rate in the NFL over his first four years after producing a college success rate this low. The only two QBs in the lower-efficiency range who were drafted in the first round, as Rosen and Allen will be: Gabbert and Locker. Not the greatest of role models. Of course, Rosen’s career numbers were dragged down by the simple fact that he played as a true freshman. Allen didn’t, nor did Gabbert. Rosen’s success rate improved over his three seasons, from 44.8 percent as a freshman in 2015, to 46.3 percent in 2016, to a perfectly solid 48.7 percent last year. So maybe he’s in the clear. Allen, however? If you’re likely to finish, at best, two to three percent below your college success rate, that means his ceiling is around 40.5 to 41 percent. That’s Ryan Mallett territory (40.8 percent). As a ceiling. Are we sure we’re willing to spend a top-five pick on a guy who might, with some good breaks, become Ryan Mallett? Maybe he goes on to become the outlier of outliers, as insisted on by every draft scout who watches him throw in shorts against no defenders. But what an incredible gamble it will be for whatever team inevitably picks him in the top 10. Josh Allen’s Wyoming stats were ... lacking. Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports To add further context to these numbers, let’s run some basic projections. To do so, though, let’s talk a moment about explosiveness. Back in January, I began playing with what I call marginal efficiency and marginal explosiveness. In my 2018 college football preview series, I have been integrating marginal efficiency and marginal explosiveness into my player analysis, and it works pretty well. You can never truly isolate one player’s performance from others’ using play-by-play stats — there’s always extra context to address — but this can perhaps take us further down the road. In this case, it basically tells us that big plays don’t carry over to the pros. While the correlation between one’s marginal efficiency in college and the pros is about the same as success rate, the correlation for marginal explosiveness was much lower (0.099). That is to say, there’s almost no relationship. This was what I expected to see, both because of the inherent randomness of big plays and the fact that, because of fewer lopsided matchups and/or crippling errors, there are fewer big plays in the pros. But it means that we have to stick mostly to efficiency when attempting to make college-to-pro projections. That’s a differentiation we can’t make with more standard stats like yards per attempt. I ran a simple regression to see how these players’ college stats might translate to the pros. I included explosiveness below as a way to figure out who we might be getting a false impression of as much as anything. Players like Mayfield, Rudolph, Woodside, Ferguson, and Allen likely benefited more from a level of explosiveness that won’t carry over to the pros. Mayfield nailed the efficiency element of the routine as well, however. Allen, on the other hand... Since a common retort from Allen advocates has been that his supporting cast was terrible in 2017, and that this should negate his mostly awful stats from last fall, I included a projection based on his 2016-only stats as well. Using 2016 upgrades him from DeShone Kizer to Tim Tebow. Stats will never tell you everything about what a player can do. In this case, though, it tells you what certain players probably can’t. And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of the top-five or top-10 pick it appears he will become.
  14. I agree. We need someone "street" smart, who thinks quick on his feet as our QB. We dont need a project. We need someone with the "IT" quality.

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