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  1. Yes, some will wilt and some will thrive. That is why the exercise of choosing a QB in the draft is such a crap shoot. The whole point of this analysis is to actually look at what these guys have actually done under specific circumstances to see how well they actually did. Yes, they all play in different conferences and under different systems. But they were all asked to do the same things within the confines of the game. This assessment is measuring how well they actually did that. While past is not always prologue, it is a good indicator of what someone is capable of. The troubling thing for me about Josh Allen is the comments made by Dan Orlovsky in that King podcast. Dan Orlovsky was a professional QB in the NFL for 12 years. Yes, he may have been a career backup, but he did not last that long without having some decent skills and without having learned something. He also played in a number of different systems behind some decent QBs. So, when he looks at a QB perform, he knows what he is looking at and what he is looking for. That he felt that Allen did not have " a plan" when he came to the line of scrimmage to deal with what the defense would throw at him is very telling. His wonderlic scores indicate that he is very smart but that may only be book smart. He doesnt appear to be "street smart" with the ability to figure things out quickly on the fly. Which is the exact skill needed to be a successful QB in the NFL.
  2. A long article analyzing the 2018 QBs. Same results as most other analysis is telling us...Mayfield's history of successful performance has the highest probability of being repeated and Allen is likely to repeat his mediocrity...or worse. Note: bolding is my highlighting key points. As much as most of the pundits keep talking up the other guys and talking down Mayfield, all the stat analysis, actual performance and history says Mayfield is the guy. How the top of this draft unfolds will be FASCINATING!!! And hopefully in a good way for us.... https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/5/17046116/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-josh-allen-sam-darnold-projections-hype There’s a new approach to NFL QB projections — and the 2018 draft class is in trouble Looking for a quarterback’s NFL ceiling? Look no further than college stats. By Bill Connelly@SBN_BillC Apr 5, 2018, 9:00am EDT According to Football Outsiders’ DYAR ratings — defense-adjusted yards above replacement — the top five NFL quarterbacks in 2017 were New England’s Tom Brady, the Los Angeles Chargers’ Philip Rivers, New Orleans’ Drew Brees, Minnesota’s Case Keenum, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger. Brady was a moderately successful two-year starter at Michigan and a sixth-round draft pick. Rivers was a record-setting four-year starter at NC State and a top-five pick. Brees was an undersized but prolific three-year starter out of an early version of the spread offense. He was picked in the second round. Keenum was an undrafted journeyman and former two-star recruit who threw for nearly 20,000 yards out of the spread in college but just bounced to his fourth team in six seasons in the NFL. Roethlisberger was a small-school star, a three-year college starter at Miami (Ohio), and a top-15 pick. Three power-conference players and two mid-major stars. Two top picks, a second-rounder, and two draft afterthoughts. Two former blue-chippers and three two- or three-star guys. Three players with perfect QB size and two undersized gunslingers. And lest you think experience was too much of a predictor here (since four of these five are up there in years), the No. 6 (Jared Goff) and 8 (Carson Wentz) QBs on the DYAR list were second-year guys, so that only goes so far as well. The top of this list of passers was low on indicators and high on symbolism. The simple truth: It’s really, really hard to identify good quarterbacks before they become good quarterbacks. Heading into the NFL Draft at the end of April, so much analysis always focuses on the idea of projection, on what a guy might be able to do, not necessarily what he’s done. This makes sense, of course, to a point — so much of success at any level is based on situation, scheme, and circumstance. The right coach, teammates, or system can make an immense difference, plus these guys haven’t faced NFL talent, with NFL coaching, before. Plenty of QBs with great college stats have bombed out in the pros, and plenty with merely good stats have thrived. NFL GMs can be forgiven for thinking that, once we get a kid in our system, it’s all gonna work out just fine. We can fix his flaws and maximize his talent. Stats will only tell you so much. They are, dare we say, for losers. If we look at the right stats, however, and do so from the right perspective, we can still get further down the road than we would get just relying on basic stats or the eye test. For instance, we definitively know a prospect’s ceiling: His college stats. It makes sense, right? Just as we don’t expect a blue-chip running back to average 12 yards per carry in college like he perhaps did in high school, a college back who averaged seven yards per carry in college probably isn’t going to do so in the NFL. And the odds of a quarterback matching his college stats at the next level are almost null. That is, he won’t match his rate stats. Keenum, for instance, isn’t throwing 50 times per game in the NFL like he did in his junior year at Houston, so his per-game yardage totals will be different. But things like completion rate, interception rate, etc., can be more telling. And success rate can be extremely telling. Success rate and IsoPPP (isolated points per play) have been go-to stats for a lot of my college analysis in recent years. Success rate is a common Football Outsiders tool used to measure efficiency by determining whether every play of a given game was successful or not (the terms: 50 percent of necessary yardage on first down, 70 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third and fourth down). IsoPPP, meanwhile, looks at the magnitude of the successful plays in terms of expected points. As it turns out, the correlation between one’s success rate in college and in his first four years in the pros is around 0.272, better than other rate stats I experimented with. There are 38 quarterbacks who a) were drafted from an FBS school between 2010-17 and have thrown at least 300 passes in the NFL. This is not a huge group, and it overlooks players who either just entered the league, have battled injuries, or, of course, weren’t good enough to throw 300 passes in the league. Looking at college-to-pro results will always have limitations like that. We can still pretty clearly learn something from these 38 QBs. For starters, none of them exceeded their college success rate in their first four years in the pros*. * Why first four years? Because that’s generally how long a rookie contract lasts. If you pick a guy who’s going to need two or three years of grooming, you might lose him as soon as he becomes a viable player. Your college success rate is your ceiling. Almost the only guys who came the close to matching their college success rates were near the bottom: Brock Osweiler (45.4 percent success rate in college, 43.9 percent in first four NFL years) mostly sat the bench for three seasons, then parlayed a fourth-year surge into a lofty contract (and promptly fell apart). Jake Locker (40.0 percent / 38.3 percent) was the least efficient college QB in the sample and one of the least efficient in the pros. New Viking Kirk Cousins (48.5 percent / 46.1 percent), a fourth-round pick in 2012, also perhaps benefited from early-career bench time before thriving. We’ll see if his sparkly new contract ends up a better investment than Osweiler’s. Osweiler and Cousins got to sit and learn for a while before being sent into action. A lot of top draft picks, however, were given early playing time, both because of their potential and the fact that teams had invested top draft picks in them. For players like Jameis Winston (45.8 percent success rate in the pros), Cam Newton (42.6 percent in his first four years), and Marcus Mariota(43.4 percent), this has worked out pretty well. For others, like Gabbert (32.9 percent), Tim Tebow (35.8 percent), and, thus far, Mitchell Trubisky(34.0 percent), it has meant early exposure of all their flaws to opponents. Gabbert and Tebow never really recovered, but Goff (29.6 percent in his rookie year, 44.3 percent in his second) did. Jared Goff’s first season in the pros was a nightmare. His second ended in the Pro Bowl. Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports We don’t learn as much about the guys with great college efficiency as the ones with statistical deficiencies. Your success rate is going to sink as the degree of difficulty improves, and while the most efficient college quarterbacks have the best odds of pro efficiency, the variance is pretty high. But your ceiling is your ceiling, and even if this doesn’t say much about guys with obscene college stats, it says a ton about the Lockers and/or Blaine Gabberts of the world, the guys with mediocre stats and standout physical traits, the guys about whom scouts will say “Yeah, his stats aren’t that good, but I can fix him. Just look at that arm!” So what does this tell us about this year’s draft prospects? Less than amazing things. I’ve been very confused by the chatter about this being an amazing QB draft class. The buzz began before the 2017 season and continued despite Wyoming’s Josh Allen regressing drastically from a statistical perspective, UCLA’s Josh Rosen continuing to struggle with injuries, and USC’s Sam Darnold dealing with some turnoveritis. I have long suspected that this QB buzz has come in part because most of the truly best players in the draft play positions that don’t tend to warrant the top pick — running back (Saquon Barkley), offensive guard (Quenton Nelson), safety (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Derwin James), inside linebacker (Roquan Smith). That is to some degree understandable. But you have to add a lot of favorable context to these stats to convince yourself that this is even an above-average QB crop. Since the highest four-year pro success rate from any QB in this sample is 46.1 percent (from both Cousins and, thus far, Dak Prescott), and since 35 of 38 quarterbacks in our draft sample were at least three percentage points lower in the NFL than in college (most were much further away than that), let’s set an artificial bar at 49.1 percent. Those at or above that mark are the ones with Prescott-level early-career efficiency potential. Where do this year’s 13 primary QB prospects land? 2018 QB prospects with a career success rate of 49.1 percent or higher: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma (54.8 percent) Sam Darnold, USC (52.0 percent) Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State (50.0 percent) Logan Woodside*, Toledo (49.5 percent) Of the 38 players in the NFL sample, only Winston (57.1 percent) and Bradford (55.4) had higher career success rates in college than Mayfield. Winston’s first three seasons in the NFL have generated a 45.8 percent success rate; Bradford battled injury and a porous offensive line, generating a 37.2 percent success rate in his first two years before rising to 42.3 percent, near the league average (which is usually between 42.5 and 43 percent), in his next two. Again, since both were drafted so high, there was no sitting — they threw a combined 1,181 passes in their respective rookie seasons. Mayfield and Darnold will potentially be thrust into action just as quickly. Rudolph and Woodside, perhaps less so. * Note: these are raw stats, unadjusted for opponent, and we don’t have enough of a sample of QBs from mid-major schools to know how much of a difference to expect from that jump. But the guys in the sample — Colin Kaepernick (47.3 percent in college, 42.1 in the NFL), Andy Dalton (49.5, 42.6), Derek Carr (47.1, 41.0), and Blake Bortles (51.6, 39.6) — have made the statistical transition about the same as the power-conference guys. Baker Mayfield’s college stats were otherworldly. Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports Here are the 2018 QBs who came relatively close to that 49 percent mark: 2018 QB prospects with a career success rate within two percentage points of 49.1 percent: Riley Ferguson, Memphis (49.0 percent) Nick Stevens, Colorado State (48.9 percent) J.T. Barrett, Ohio State (48.6 percent) Luke Falk, Washington State (48.0 percent) Lamar Jackson, Louisville (47.4 percent) Mike White, WKU (47.4 percent) You can’t really get a conclusive read on prospects within this range, especially someone like Lamar Jackson, whose rushing ability is incredible. (I limited this look to just pass proficiency.) You can, however, draw some pretty stark, alarming conclusions about prospects in this range: 2018 QB prospects with a career success rate lower than 47.1 percent: Rosen (46.6 percent) Litton (45.2 percent) Allen (43.3 percent) Of the 38 QBs in our pro sample, only one (Osweiller) managed a league-average passing success rate in the NFL over his first four years after producing a college success rate this low. The only two QBs in the lower-efficiency range who were drafted in the first round, as Rosen and Allen will be: Gabbert and Locker. Not the greatest of role models. Of course, Rosen’s career numbers were dragged down by the simple fact that he played as a true freshman. Allen didn’t, nor did Gabbert. Rosen’s success rate improved over his three seasons, from 44.8 percent as a freshman in 2015, to 46.3 percent in 2016, to a perfectly solid 48.7 percent last year. So maybe he’s in the clear. Allen, however? If you’re likely to finish, at best, two to three percent below your college success rate, that means his ceiling is around 40.5 to 41 percent. That’s Ryan Mallett territory (40.8 percent). As a ceiling. Are we sure we’re willing to spend a top-five pick on a guy who might, with some good breaks, become Ryan Mallett? Maybe he goes on to become the outlier of outliers, as insisted on by every draft scout who watches him throw in shorts against no defenders. But what an incredible gamble it will be for whatever team inevitably picks him in the top 10. Josh Allen’s Wyoming stats were ... lacking. Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports To add further context to these numbers, let’s run some basic projections. To do so, though, let’s talk a moment about explosiveness. Back in January, I began playing with what I call marginal efficiency and marginal explosiveness. In my 2018 college football preview series, I have been integrating marginal efficiency and marginal explosiveness into my player analysis, and it works pretty well. You can never truly isolate one player’s performance from others’ using play-by-play stats — there’s always extra context to address — but this can perhaps take us further down the road. In this case, it basically tells us that big plays don’t carry over to the pros. While the correlation between one’s marginal efficiency in college and the pros is about the same as success rate, the correlation for marginal explosiveness was much lower (0.099). That is to say, there’s almost no relationship. This was what I expected to see, both because of the inherent randomness of big plays and the fact that, because of fewer lopsided matchups and/or crippling errors, there are fewer big plays in the pros. But it means that we have to stick mostly to efficiency when attempting to make college-to-pro projections. That’s a differentiation we can’t make with more standard stats like yards per attempt. I ran a simple regression to see how these players’ college stats might translate to the pros. I included explosiveness below as a way to figure out who we might be getting a false impression of as much as anything. Players like Mayfield, Rudolph, Woodside, Ferguson, and Allen likely benefited more from a level of explosiveness that won’t carry over to the pros. Mayfield nailed the efficiency element of the routine as well, however. Allen, on the other hand... Since a common retort from Allen advocates has been that his supporting cast was terrible in 2017, and that this should negate his mostly awful stats from last fall, I included a projection based on his 2016-only stats as well. Using 2016 upgrades him from DeShone Kizer to Tim Tebow. Stats will never tell you everything about what a player can do. In this case, though, it tells you what certain players probably can’t. And in the case of Josh Allen, it would take a spectacular outlier performance — one that hasn’t happened this decade — to live up to the expectations of the top-five or top-10 pick it appears he will become.
  3. I agree. We need someone "street" smart, who thinks quick on his feet as our QB. We dont need a project. We need someone with the "IT" quality.
  4. There were two extremely insightful posts recently, by HMHertz and Gangrene. Props for posting. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/4/1/17185862/nfl-draft-qb-ball-placement-analysis Clean = basically the QB got his feet set and made a throw with his normal mechanics Move = the QB threw it on the move Tight Window = the defense was tight enough that the QB had to adjust the ball-placement to get it around/through the defense. The main takeaways for me: Holy Lauletta (though he has by far the least amount of film compared to the others) Mayfield and Rosen are also very good, as expected Based on these numbers, Lamar Jackson is one of the most accurate QBs in the draft but REALLY struggles on those screen passes/passes to the flats. Rudolph is terribly average. And the Dan Orlovsky/ Peter King podcast: https://dfkfj8j276wwv.cloudfront.net/episodes/57ff7f93-1714-4ba6-a485-7d9761fb9b6c/ce6d056e00b3d022ca8ad0b0c6abacfebc455927501bfca2307eeb90dd241c07fb09434ecac27e98e27df0e31ebac4eab9170139033a98dc0cde69727b3f0070/2018 04 04 MMQB with Peter King.mp3 If you listened closely to Orlovsky's detailed view and look at the metrics of what this chart reveals, The Jets should want no part of Josh Allen. Yes, Allen is also very smart and has a cannon for an arm, but he doesnt have the ability to think beyond what is patently obvious and see many alternatives on the moving chess board of football. In other words, the ability for instantaneous scenario projection and strategic adjustment. His numbers bear that out to me. Conversely, Mayfield, Darnold and Rosen appear to possess that quality. One thing with Rosen, however, we better have a solid offensive line, because he breaks down when on the move. Also, Jackson is no slouch. He just requires a different level of commitment, which I dont think the Jets are willing to make. If we could somehow come away with one of these three and Lauletta, the Jets would be set for the next 5-7 years.
  5. The Jets have already demonstrated their desire for more talent on the D-line with their offer of $14mm plus to Suh. Given Hankins size, strength and pedigree he might be a great pick up, assuming he and the Jets are both reasonable with the contract. Since he has been available for several weeks of free agency, had two visits and hasnt signed a deal, hopefully there should be some flexibility from Hankins.
  6. agreed...sign this beast! https://www.hogshaven.com/2018/3/17/17134610/could-johnathan-hankins-provide-the-answer-in-the-middle-that-the-redskins-have-been-looking-for Could Johnathan Hankins provide the D-Line help that the Redskins have been looking for? 197 One team’s trash is another team’s treasure... By Bill-in-Bangkok Mar 17, 2018, 6:37pm EDT Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images View image on Twitter Twitter Ads info and privacy View image on Twitter Twitter Ads info and privacy Twitter Ads info and privacy Twitter Ads info and privacy The 6-2, 325-pound interior defender is a natural two-gap tackle, and had a great season centering the Indianapolis Colts’ 3-4 in what was the first season of a $27 million, three-year deal. The “one person’s trash” principle is in full effect here. Hankins earned an 85.0 grade from Pro Football Focus, and was ranked their 20th-best interior defender. Having just turned 26, the Dearborn Heights product and Ohio State Buckeye is still on the upswing. The former Giant and Colts interior defensive lineman would represent an “impact” signing for the Redskins, who could find the missing piece of the puzzle in Hankins, drafted in the second round by the Giants in 2013. For anyone concerned about the impact on the Redskins’ compensatory draft situation, there’s no need to worry. Since Hankins was cut by the Colts, he does not count in the comp pick formula. The ‘second wave’ of free agency often finds unexpected gems like this — players cast aside because of scheme or coaching changes. The team finds a player in the first days of free agency who fit the new philosophy better, and around the fourth or fifth day, part ways with a productive and talented veteran who is immediately snapped up by a patient team with cap space who need the skills on offer. The Redskins’ patience could be rewarded if they act swiftly. Get Redskin One in the air, and land it on Hankins’ front lawn while he is still shocked and reeling from the move. Wine him, dine him, and sign him... do what Dan & Bruce do best. Then get out of the way and let Tomsula and Manusky get to work integrating this guy into what the Redskins do. Coming out of college in 2013, he was described this way: Last year, when he entered free agency the first time, there were glowing reports about him: Hankins had a 3-year, $27m contract signed just last off-season, meaning that he was making $9m per year average, but he collected $10m in 2017, so he’s not likely to be impatient. He didn’t sign a contract until the late stages of free agency last year (a week into free agency last season, he was still available) so he and his agent know the value of waiting for the right offer. Hankins was slated to make $8.4m this season, but it wasn’t guaranteed, and the Colts incurred no dead cap hit when they cut him, so Hankins will likely be looking for more security this time around. The “right offer” would put Hankins into burgundy & gold. The front office should make this happen.
  7. Jets Sign Pryor

    Forgot to read the small print...consider the source. ESPN New York believes the Jets could move on from Jermaine Kearse. Kearse set career highs last season but isn't a lock to return for the final year of his deal. The Jets signed Terrelle Pryor and are getting slot WR Quincy Enunwa back, making him expendable. Releasing Kearse would create $5 million in cap savings. Source: Rich Cimini on Twitter Mar 24 - 3:21 PM Discount at all costs....
  8. Jets Rescind Suh Offer

    Where you and I differ is that I dont think the Jets are desperate. They have approached selective players in selective situations. They have a ton of cash that they actually have to spend. So they put up some 60 foot shots. They know they wont hit on all or maybe any of them. But all it takes is one... Besides, how embarrassed can you be whilst running a billion $$$ organization??? What did Parcells say: 1. Ignore other opinions – Press or TV, agents or advisors, family or wives, friends or relatives, fans or hangers on – ignore them on matters of football, they don’t know what’s happening here.
  9. Jets Rescind Suh Offer

    Not avoiding. I dont care. If he isnt so motivated to be here, then who cares why. According to a number of rumors surrounding Cousins, he was never coming to the Jets anyway. It doesnt mean that they shouldnt try. How many times have you asked girls out only to be shot down? Did you stop trying? Hopefully, no. But those magical times when those fine girls said yes, made all the rejection worthwhile. The Jets seem to have specific types of players and talents that they are adding to this team. They are also willing to take flyers on some suspect characters whose talent that fits their perceived needs. This is a whole lot more coherent than the last two regimes. Give them until after the draft dust and pre-summer pickups are done and see what the team looks like. Bet it will be competitive...
  10. Jets Rescind Suh Offer

    Suh has always been a marquee player, having signed one of the biggest deals ever for a non-QB. He wasnt coming for pennies. And BTW, the highest offer is what wins the bid in most auctions. So the Jets kicked the tires. If you dont ask, you dont get. In this case, Suh was dicking around, so the Jets moved on. They have other fish to fry.
  11. Jets Rescind Suh Offer

    Not at all. The Jets did the right thing throughout the Suh affair. They offered him what they thought was fair and could afford and something that he could accept. They gave him a reasonable amount of time to indicate his level of seriousness and since he didnt meet those parameters, they rescinded their offer. This lets the rest of the league know that the Jets will be fair with you but are not going to be used. If you are not serious, dont waste our time or resources. Further, this decision was a complete front office and ownership decision. The new Jets management is handling its business like the adults in the room.
  12. Jets Sign Pryor

    Thx...I appreciate the compliment. McCown threw 398 times in 13 games for 2926 yards. Petty threw another 112 times for a Jets season total of 510 attempts. Anderson had 114 targets whilst Kearse had 102. Pryor in his best year with Cleveland had 140 attempts out of 460 attempts, catching 77 or 55%. Similarly, Anderson caught 55% and Kearse caught 63% of their respective targets. The RB crew had roughly 20% of Jets targets or 105. So, assuming the Jets throw 500 times in 2018. And assume that no one receiver dominates the way Pryor did with the Browns, it would be reasonable to expect that 100 targets each or 6.5 per game is very possible. If history repeats and they all maintained their historical catching and yards per catch percentages of 13.1, 14.9 and 12.5 respectively, we could project the following from each: Pryor 100 55 720 Anderson 100 55 820 Kearse 100 63 787 The wild cards in this scenario are 1. Will Anderson be suspended? 2. How will Pryor be used in the red zone? If he picks up where Brandon Marshall left off , that will open up even more the spacing that the Jets offense will be allowed by defenses. If Pryor can achieve these numbers with another 5-7 touchdowns, I will be very happy. FYI, for all the NY "Browns" haters, Crowell is no slouch in the receiving department either, having caught 28 of 42 in 2017 and 40 of 53 in 2016. these are both very under-rated pickups, which should pay decent dividends in 2018.
  13. Jets Sign Pryor

    Either way will be a big plus for the Jets. Balls thrown near, above or away from him are unreachable by the defenders, given his size. His catch radius and arm length is huge, which means he can box out virtually all DBs. Only on poorly thrown balls will a defender have a chance. This is a unique option and advantage for the Jets to have.
  14. Jets Sign Pryor

    That may be true, but do we need him to get 1,000 yards. If you look at the JETS receiving last year, both Kearse and Anderson were top 30 and got almost 1,000 yards. I think we all are selling these guys talents short. With the addition of Pryor, that rounds out the WR corps. With Kearse as the slot WR, Anderson as wide out (X) and Pryor as flanker (Z), you now have three different skill sets operating each of the zones on the field. Further all of these guys have experience at the other WR positions, making mismatches more likely. This a much more balanced WR corp than since the days of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes. Plus none of these guys are slow, with clocked 40 times of 4.34 RA, 4.38 TP and 4.43 for JK. Couple that with the 6'5" , 230 lb "Megatron-like" size of Pryor, portends that the Jets should be a harder team to defend. Jermaine Kearse 65 810 12.5 51 5 Robby Anderson 63 941 14.9 69 7 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 50 357 7.1 28 3 Matt Forte 37 293 7.9 34 1 Bilal Powell 23 170 7.4 31 0 Jeremy Kerley 22 217 9.9 31 1 Elijah McGuire 17 177 10.4 38 1 Chad Hansen 9 94 10.4 24 0 Eric Tomlinson 8 121 15.1 34 1 Neal Sterling 6 82 13.7 35 0 If you study the route tree of each of these WRs, you can see exactly where they have been most effective https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/robby-anderson/AND460305 https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/terrelle-pryor/PRY474541 https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/jermaine-kearse/KEA511674/season Our 3rd receiver last year was a statue... ASJ, who only averaged 7 yards per catch. If Tomlinson and/or Sterling or Leggett or whoever the Jets eventually pick up are able to attain reasonably similar numbers the Jets will improve.
  15. He gets it. As we know all too well, it could be much worse.