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varjet

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About varjet

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  1. I was right- We could have drafted Lewis over Ashtyn Davis Cushenberry over Zuniga And foregone any of Morgan, Hall or Clark for Onwenu. IOL would be set for another 3 years. Pathetic.
  2. Let's look at it from the perspective of another team (or the Jets) having seen Darnold's 5 years of tape. You can use a first round draft pick on a QB, invest $30mm-$40mm over four years in that, and potentially have to use draft capital to trade up. That's an option. For $30mm and a draft pick, you can give Darnold another shot for two years, with the franchise tag option after that. That effectively is his 2021 and 2022 fifth year option. Ignoring the sunk cost, the Jets can basically do the same thing, forgoing whatever draft pick they would get. When you compare the FA contracts guys like McCown and Fitz signed, the $30mm option is not terrible.
  3. Let the Jets and Miami bid for Watson. Those are the only two teams that are relevant. JD should put a low ball bid in-like SAR's. 2 Darnold Seahawks 1st round this year. Although I would like a 1st round next year to build the team, my concern is that 23 is lower than the Jets and Seahawks pick next year. But, maybe get creative and give them the Jets' pick next year.
  4. On one hand, any team that trades for Darnold, even a 7th round pick, is giving the Jets value, because not only are the Jets getting priority rights to another player, but they are assuming the guaranteed salary portion of his contract. The article is incorrect-Sam will not be paid $9mm-that is his cap value. His guaranteed salary is $4.6mm. Not peanuts, and that is what the Jets can save if they get someone to trade for Sam. that is half a FA starter. If the Jets like a QB at 2, they obviously should take him, and can even keep Sam to start while the QB prepares. This team is not ready to compete in 2021. I don't see the point of paying a QB top dollar to play for this team. One could even argue that 2 should either be Sewell or trade down for more picks. Next year the Jets can sign a FA QB or use their 2 first round draft picks (or more, depending on the trade down) to trade up next year. But this will be an interesting dilemma on Jets Drive. The Johnsons would love to use their draft picks to trade for a marquee QB-sell tickets, commercials, parking, PSLs, etc. Douglas and Saleh with their backgrounds and long-term contracts will want to build the team from the ground up. They don't need a $30+mm QB to fail behind a weak team, have the Jets not make the playoffs with no hope for later in the decade. That will get Douglas and Saleh fired/not extended.
  5. We could have and should have drafted the C and Gs. We may have been able to draft all of them together.
  6. 1 Seattle gave the Jets first round picks with an approximate aggregate value of 1500 points on the JJ Draft Value Chart. The 2 pick is worth 2600 points. So all of this talk about Adams yielding 2 first round picks is misguided. The most I would pay for Watson, including his salary, is the equivalent of around 3500 points.
  7. Look at the Packers and the Bucs. The Packers built through the draft, drafted a QB in the 20s, coached and developed him and eventually paid him top of the market and have been competitive almost every year. The Bucs built through the draft and paid a veteran QB a below top of the market salary so he can throw to a great team of receivers. Look at the Chiefs and Bills-same but different story. Both teams drafted a first round draft pick to move up a bit and draft a QB. They otherwise built through the draft. Each team has written or will write a big contract for that QB. Trading many, many draft picks for Watson, and still pay him $30+mm after 2021 (a year where the Jets still need players) seems crazy. I do not think that a team pays the price for Watson that the media expects. I saw this trade referred to as the Herschel Walker trade, but in reverse. No-those trades always work for the team that gets the draft picks. You trade all of those picks and Watson ends up like Alex Smith its over. When the Texans decided to pay Watson all that money, that was a risky but sound decision. They still had their draft picks (at the time). To pay all that money and lose your draft picks-that is lunacy. Trading a ton of picks for Watson would be a classic Johnson move. They are salivating over that. I can't see JD doing it.
  8. The No. 2 pick is worth 2600 points in JJ's chart. Seattle's pick is worth 760. Two of those picks are worth 1540, still way below 2600. With the No 2 pick you can pick a QB that could be great and lock him in on a five year contact. There is obviously some risk there. So trading the 2 pick, plus another first, in exchange for a veteran QB and assuming his more expensive contract, seems like a fair exchange to me. Anything more than that would not be worth it. The Jets need players. They are better off building the team with draft picks and finding a QB another way, including by trying to work with Darnold next year for $4.6mm when they are building anyway.
  9. Arians was interviewed last week on Sirius NFL and was asked about Bowles being a future HC. He basically said that Bowles would be better with a better GM. So that is where the blame is being laid. Bowles is a good man who I am sure learned alot. Mac gave him terrible players that did not even fit his system. A combination of Bowles and the Johnsons hired him a very week staff-when he had Chan and Mac hit on some FAs, the Jets won 10 games. Bowles will likely be a HC again and do better. Head to head, I would rather have Saleh.
  10. I don't see JD dumping too many picks on the Texans for DeShaun. Just because the Seahawks gave the Jets 2 1s for Adams does not mean that Jets should necessarily be paying more for Watson. Adams was cheaper, for at least a year, and Adams was supposed to be the missing piece to their Super Bowl run (ok, did not work). The Jets would also be offering the 2nd pick, which is guaranteed to get you anyone else besides TL. Watson would cost alot of money in 2021, when it would be unlikely that the Jets would be competitive, particularly without picks. I actually see JD and the 49ers believing in a balanced team. So may be its both 1s this year (I would not trade the Seahawks pick next year-it could be high). Maybe we take another large contract off the Texans hands. But the Jets would not only be taking Watson's contract off of the Texans hands, but will be giving them a cheap rookie contract of a player many deem comparable.
  11. The Chiefs are going to get burned. their real OC is Kafka, but someone can hire him away as OC because it would be a promotion. Bienemy will get the Texans job to make Watson happy. The Texans can’t trade Watson even if they wanted to.
  12. I think the Jets’ 2021 number 2 pick, plus Darnold, plus MAYBE the Seahawks’ first round in 2022 is a very fair deal for Watson. The only reason I would throw in the second 1st round pick is because Watson’s contract is not terrible. When you think about the 49ers, they traded a second round for Garropolo, and then signed him to a record contract which is actually currently a decent deal. The 49ers have been able to build a whole team without paying their QB too, too much money. The Texans should be better off keeping Watson, but their cap is busted. It makes more sense for them to try their luck with Fields and 4 less expensive years. But this only works if Watson fits in the LeFleur system.
  13. NFL teams have draft picks and money to acquire players. Trades that require both almost never work out. Seattle overpaid for Adams, but he was was still on some rookie contract. Paying multiple 1s for Watson and his contract makes no sense. We can sign Prescott and keep the draft picks.
  14. The Johnsons have never been believers in sunk cost. They will be reluctant to write off the Darnold investment. Unfortunately, the Johnsons hired Gase, who was a terrible match for Darnold. I think when you look at the last 5 years of Darnold and compare to Wilson, Fields and Lance, the comparison is not definitive. You can argue that Darnold should get a chance in this system. But it is all about the contract. Trubisky, for his pros and cons, will sign a contract this season. That is not a bad high end for Darnold. Although the Jets have a cheap year of Darnold next year guaranteed (its cash of about $4.6mm, not his $9.7mm cap value (he costs cap space to trade), if the Jets believe there is hope for Darnold, I would reboot his contract and sign him for an extension that is between his rookie contract and next contract. Maybe two years, $30mm, guaranteed. Let him prove himself and start over, leaving the Jets the franchise tag in 2023. But...that is actually almost the exact same money as next year plus the 5th year option...which is why the Jets will likely do that.

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