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About nyjbuddy

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  1. Jets : Top 3 NFL Draft picks 2.. AVOID ~ ~ ~

    Josh Allen has the upside of Joe Flacco or Cam Newton, or the downside of Jake Plummer or Jake Locker. Surround them with a top defense and wait for them to make a couple of unbelievable plays to win you games. Every other play will leave you scratching your head, wondering what were they thinking/doing?
  2. Jimmy G Contract Details

    When comparing this to Stafford's contract last year, they are similar in total amount and years (not in guaranteed money though). Also, looks like in both contracts, the team can get out after 3 years. But the way the contracts are structured are very different, cap number-wise. Stafford's contract escalates and tops out at $31.5M in 2020. Garoppolo's contract is front loaded and starts at $37M, but drops and slowly escalates to $27M in 2020. The contracts were structured to be beneficial for their respective teams. The Lions are expecting an increasing cap number and that they can manage their spending in future years, since at the time of the signing they didn't have the cap space. The 49ers front loaded the contract since they have the space now. If the guaranteed monies were somewhat equal, I wonder which type of contract Cousins would prefer? It seems like a few teams, including the Jets, could offer a Garoppolo type of contract, while others may only be able to offer a Stafford type of contract.
  3. Jimmy G Contract Details

    Very smart indeed. Jimmy Garoppolo signed a 5 year, $137.5 million contract with the 49ers on February 8, 2019. All contract details come via a report by ESPN's Adam Schefter and please credit accordingly. Garoppolo received a $7 million signing bonus and $28 million roster bonus as part of his first year salary. His 2018 and $7.5 million of his 2019 salary are fully guaranteed bringing the full guarantee to $48.7 million. $74.1 million of the contract is guaranteed for injury. There are annual per game roster bonuses of $800,000. After the first year, his cap number will seem reasonable considering the handful of quarterbacks expected to get extended possibly this off-season or next (Rodgers, Ryan, Wilson, Mariota, Winston, etc). Also with the growing league cap space by an approximate $12M per year.
  4. nfl.com (both Lance Zeirlein and Daniel Jeremiah) ranks James Daniels ahead of Billy Price. If Daniels has a background with the zone blocking and could be had in the 2nd without trading up and spending picks, would rather wait.
  5. 6 Possible QB Scenarios

    I agree with this but was wondering about the last two statements. Are the rookie contracts able to go that high? I thought the contracts are basically pre-determined and are capped. This year the number 1 pick will get somewhere around $6M in year one and escalate approximately $1.5M a year. So the number 1 pick will get something like 4-years at $33M. Still high for a rookie, but would be around <5% of the salary cap.
  6. Complete Saquon Barkely breakdown and comp.

    Same NFL comp made by Lance Zierlein on nfl.com
  7. Seems pretty high for someone with only about half a season of experience. But then again teams used to spend a large portion of their cap space on players that hadn't even played a down in the NFL before the rookie salary cap. The potential to be a great QB is there for Garoppolo. At least the total wasn't a lot more than the Stafford contract last year; though the guaranteed is a lot more. Stafford: $135M, $27M/year, $12.1 guaranteed/year, 44.8% guaranteed, $167M league cap number Garoppolo: $137.5M, $27.5M/year, $14.8M guaranteed/year, 53.8% guaranteed, $178 league cap number Seems like the going rate for a QB contract is hovering around $27M-$28M / year.
  8. Interesting article about Kirk Cousins, written from the perspective of a free agent target for the Vikings. I tried to remove as much of the Vikings talk as possible. There is video break down throughout the article so the text doesn't do it justice. https://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/02/vikings-must-consider-best-worst-kirk-cousins/ If you only looked at Cousins’ box score numbers like completion percentage, touchdowns, quarterback rating etc., it would be a no brainer: Sign him up. But a lot more goes into quarterback evaluation than TD:INT ratio. There are reasons why Washington hasn’t signed onto Cousins long term already and why his former GM said that he isn’t a “special” quarterback. So where does the truth lie? Let’s have a look at his best and worst game of the year (when his supporting cast was largely healthy)… The good Kirk Cousins can throw the ball downfield. Since 2015, Cousins has a 101.0 quarterback rating on throws over 15 yards, which ranks sixth in the NFL, and slightly ahead of Tom Brady, during that timespan. Against the New Orleans Saints, the former Michigan State QB threw for 322 yards, three touchdowns and averaged 10.1 yards per attempt in a 34-31 overtime loss. Early in the game, he found tight end Vernon Davis deep. The throw requires arm strength, accuracy and anticipation. Cousins releases the ball as Davis is coming out of his break and leads him far enough toward the sideline that the Saints’ safety can’t get there in time. One of the great benefits of having Cousins as your quarterback is his toughness. He played in 16 games this year despite being sacked 41 times. He’s willing to stand in the face of pressure and make downfield throws like the one below. New Orleans sends an all-out blitz and Cousins waits for the last possible second to fire the ball downfield to his wide open receiver for a touchdown. As you can see, he gets smacked by two defenders as he lets the ball go. Cousins is exceptional at executing play-action plays. Washington ranked No. 3 in the NFL in 2017 in yards per attempt on play-action throws, first in 2016 and second in 2015, according to Football Outsiders. Jay Gruden dialed up play-action on 20 percent of his total plays. The Vikings ran play-action at a slightly higher rate last season (26 percent). On the play below, the offensive line blocks as if they are going to run an outside zone handoff, then Cousins rolls right. Despite a rusher coming at him, he slams on the breaks and releases a pass to the second level for a big gain. He could have dumped it off short, but instead found the deeper receiver. Some of Cousins’ best moments aren’t the most flashy. He appears to have an exceptional understanding of his offense and where each receiver is going to be. The play below is the best example of Cousins going through progressions and working his way across the field. The receiver to his right is running a slant, which the Saints take away. Backed up against the goal line, he quickly works to his check down option for a positive play. Cousins was effective working the ball to his running backs. In total, they caught 79 passes this season. Top pass-catching running back Chris Thompson gained 13.1 yards per reception. To recap: Cousins throws a strong, accurate deep ball and isn’t afraid to launch the ball to a receiver with coverage lurking. He’s well versed in his offense and knows how to find his playmakers in space underneath, he’s incredibly tough and fantastic at executing play-action throws. The bad Against the Philadelphia Eagles on opening week, Cousins had a rough outing, going 23-for-40 with 240 yards, one touchdown, one interception and a 72.9 rating. It wasn’t his worst game of the year statistically, but it was his roughest game with a full supporting cast. Later in the year, Washington suffered a number of key injuries. We begin on the game’s first drive. On a third-and-long, Cousins avoids an inside rush from the defensive end and has an open lane to throw the ball past the sticks. However, the Eagles are playing two deep safeties and two linebackers dropping deep into zone coverage. At the bottom of the screen, you can see a cover-2 zone look. Cousins’ target sits down between the safety and the corner. But Cousins sees him too late and the Eagles’ linebacker closes quickly, nearly intercepting the pass. This is one area where Cousins appears to struggle: Facing teams playing deep zone coverages, he has issues throwing into tight windows. Pro Football Focus ranked Cousins 17th this year in “big-time throws.” He can also be overly aggressive rather than living to fight another day. The veteran QB has the fifth most INTs on third-and-long in the NFL over the last three years. Below is another example of a third down throw into traffic that doesn’t go well for Cousins. He nearly gets his receiver decked. He may have assumed the single safety was going to drop deep into coverage, but instead the safety sat on the route, fooling Cousins into a poor decision. Earlier we saw Cousins hang in the pocket and take a big hit to throw a touchdown. Well, that can be both good and bad. Over the past three years, Cousins has more fumbles than any quarterback in the NFL with 31. On the play below, we see one example. He doesn’t feel the rusher coming around the edge or slide up into the pocket to buy himself an extra half second. Trying to play hero inside the pocket has also led to some untimely interceptions. On this play, the Eagles have a rusher come free and Cousins wings the ball to his hot receiver instead of taking the sack. Because he can’t set his feet, the ball sails and is picked off. The average interception percentage under pressure is 2.6 percent. This year, Cousins’ was 4.1 percent. But his “big-time throw” percentage was higher than average. To recap: Over the last three years, Cousins has turned the ball over more than Mike Zimmer would like from his quarterback. It appears that his issues with tight-window throws and commitment to hanging in the pocket are responsible for that. Consistency and “clutch” situations *** See article for this part (includes tables) *** Now – about Cousins being a “winner.” Judging a quarterback by his win-loss record isn’t always the best way to evaluate. Quarterbacks don’t play, you know, defense. Washington’s defense has ranked 28th, 28th and 21st in yards allowed and hasn’t cracked the top half of the league in points allowed. But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to the notion of Cousins struggling in certain key situations. For example, Pro Football Focus graded him 30th on third downs this season. Over the last three years, he has a mid-pack 7.5 yards per attempt on third-and-long situations (best is Ben Roethlisberger at 9.2) with the fifth most interceptions. Here are his passer ratings by quarter: First quarter: 103.9 Second quarter: 95.7 Third quarter: 93.0 Fourth quarter: 85.9 Of his 55 career interceptions, 22 have come in the fourth quarter. When Washington is winning, Cousins’ rating is 99.4, when they’re trailing his rating is 85.6. When trailing with fewer than four minutes to go, Cousins has a 69.4 rating. Over an entire career, these things are relevant and likely relate to the struggles we looked at vs. the Eagles.
  9. Sign Kirk, draft QB

    Is the expectation that in 2 years Cousins will be bad so that the Jets are picking in the top 5 picks (assuming that Jake Fromm is a top 5 pick)? Or that Cousins will be doing well and that Jake Fromm will be a mid to late first round QB (or mid round pick)?
  10. If only Brady could catch.....

    "You have to catch the ball when you're supposed to catch the ball" - Gisele Bundchen, post 2012 Super Bowl "My husband cannot f--king throw the ball and catch the ball at the same time. I can't believe they dropped the ball so many times." - Gisele Bundchen, post 2012 Super Bowl
  11. Sign Kirk, draft QB

    Out of curiosity, who would be the backup QB if Cousins is signed? The 2017 season was one of the worst seasons for QB injuries. According to fivethirtyeight, by the start of week 11, it ranked 8th in adjusted games lost for quarterbacks. That was before Cutler, Taylor, Peterman, and Savage went down for at least 1 game and Lynch, Wentz and McCown having season ending injuries. Its not just the 2017 season that was high. 2016 ranked 4th, 2015 ranked 10th, 2014 ranked 9th, and 2013 ranked 3rd. Though the rules are being changed to protect the QB, in the past 5 seasons, we have seen 5 of the top 10 highest number of games being missed by QBs. The 2017 season even ranked 4th, for quality QBs (evaluated by DVOA) getting injured. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-this-the-worst-year-for-quarterback-injuries/ Hopefully Cousins would not get injured, but it would be wise to have someone who could step in if he were to go down for an extended period of time. Would rather have a Foles (FA), Bradford(FA), Keenum(FA) sitting on the bench rather than a Hundley (5th round developmental QB), Cook (4th round developmental QB), or Petty(4th round developmental QB). The free agency market is very limited this year: McCown, Fitzpatrick, Geno, Sanchez (could be our Foles, only joking), Moore, Cutler, Anderson, Stanton, Savage, Henne, Gabbert. So where will this capable backup would come from? Is there a successful blueprint on finding a cheap, capable backup?
  12. In the article with Arians and Kizer, it did not say that Arians liked Kizer but just "I think one of them is probably ready to start as a rookie". Being ready to start and a prospect's potential are two different things. Maybe he did feel like Kizer was ready to start as a rookie but it doesn't mean that he had the highest ceiling as a prospect. It also doesn't mean you draft him, especially when they had Palmer as the starter. In fact, thinking that they had Palmer at least for one more year, I would have expected them to draft someone that wouldn't necessarily start right away but had a higher upside than Kizer. They just didn't find one in that draft that they were comfortable taking with the picks they had.
  13. Good comp. For me, Rosen reminds me of Jay Cutler. Talented arm, confident (Some may say arrogant), sometimes fiery but otherwise mostly really relaxed. Darnold reminds me of a slightly more athletic Philip Rivers. Long throwing motion, but good timing and anticipation. Both could be something special.
  14. Odds to Land Cousins

    Agreed, the Broncos don't have much cap space to improve, but they have done a decent job of re-building through the draft since the super bowl. You've got a good point with Thomas and Sanders being 31, but they've proven that they can both be effective, both put up 1000 yard years and they done it for more than just 1 year. They are also only 1 year for doing it. Broncos could just as well take Barkley in the draft ahead of the Jets. If that were the case, it would be Barkley vs Forte/Powell. The 32 year old Forte is 3 years removed from a 1000 yard year and Powell, 30 in October, has not posted over 800 yards in a single season. According to FootballOutsiders: Broncos o-line ranked 9th in run blocking and 29th in pass blocking. Jets o-line ranked 29th in run blocking and 27th in passing blocking. Throughout the season PFF ranked Broncos in the middle of the league, while Jets usually ranked towards the bottom. I think the point you make about "improve the o-line in FA" is very important. If Cousins is impatient and wants to sign early he will be looking at the rosters as they are at the opening of free agency. Until the Jets actually sign players (or at least reach agreements) to improve their o-line, there isn't an advantage there. For all we know the Jets may prioritize signing a couple of corners, outside linebackers, and d-lineman in front of signing an offensive lineman. I agree that the potential of this team is greater than the Broncos, but its if and when will that potential be realized? Cause that window of opportunity opens and closes quickly for some teams.
  15. Odds to Land Cousins

    Elway has a super bowl as a GM; we sometimes minimize the effort it takes and the rarity to actually win one. Thomas and Harris were the only starters on that Super Bowl team that was there before Elway got there. Hillman, Paradis, Schofield, Jackson, Wolfe, Williams, Miller, Trevathan, Harris (UDFA), Anderson(UDFA) were all drafted during Elway's time. That's pretty good drafting. He also acquired some very solid free agents with Daniels, Mathis, Vasquez, and Marshall. So he does have a pretty good track record of also identifying free agent talent. After reaching the Super Bowl in 2014, he went out and signed Sanders, Ware, Talib, and Ward. Elway did a great job in building a Super Bowl team. Since Elway becoming a GM, Denver has had more pro bowlers than the Jets every year. Not a great measure of GM ability, but a simple comparison of the talent-level on each team as seen by the fans. YEAR DEN NYJ 2017 2 0 2016 6 1 2015 6 5 2014 11 2 2013 5 2 2012 7 2 37 12 As for Mccagnan, only time will tell if he could do the same. It took Elway 4 years to build a super bowl contender, Maccagnan is going into his 4th. Perhaps in time he could prove to be a good GM but I would have to say Elway has a significant advantage at this point.