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nyjbuddy

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  1. 4 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

    Ekwonu & Deebo from picks 4 and 10, even if it means we can't recoup capital via trade down, is pretty good.

    Imagine going into the draft with 9 picks, getting Ekwonu and Deebo on day one. Then trading Becton for a day 2 pick and Mims for a day 3 pick, which would allow them to start day 2 still with 9 picks.

  2. 6 hours ago, Alka said:

    Unless the pick is Eckwonu or Hutch or Thibs, I can definitely see JD trading down, and also possibly trading down at #10.  

    Thinking that the Jets need a starting edge rusher, wide receiver, linebacker.   the Jets need another running back, another offensive tackle, another interior defensive lineman, possible starting safety.  Those are 7 players, and I could see the Jets drafting multiple players at the same position.

    There are certainly a lot of smoke screens put out by GM's and teams, and I'm just not buying any of it.

    Jermaine Johnson, Trevon Walker are both intriguing players, but I just don't buy that they both will be top 4 players in this draft.

    And if the Jets stay put at #4, it all comes down to who JD values at the #10 pick, and whether or not he has 4 or 5 players that he feels about equally at that spot.  Same with #35 and #38.  If the Jets have 20 players that they love, then they can move up and down in that top 20.  And if a player in that top 20 drops down below #20, then the #35 and #38 picks could be at play.

    To me, this is what makes this Jets draft so interesting this year.  There are so many options, and JD could end up surprising us all in the end.

     

    • Upvote 2
    • Sympathy 1
    • Haha 1
  3. On 4/18/2022 at 5:17 AM, Barry McCockinner said:

    I've seen a few people making this suggestion over the weekend

     
    Seems like a late round or undrafted type guy though.

     

    Has the traits of a Kyle Shanahan type of receiver from a short area quickness measurables stand point.  6.81 3-cone and 4.10 shuttle are within the range of the typical WR in the system.  Elijah Moore: 6.67 3-cone, 4 shuttle and Berrios: 6.72 3-cone, 4.18 shuttle.  Devin Fuller, Deebo, Richie James, all have similar 3-cone (around 7) and shuttle times (around 4.1). Plays similar to Hunter Renfrow and can be a contributor on special teams.

    • Upvote 1
  4. On 3/31/2022 at 12:56 PM, jNYC1 said:

    Isaih Pacheco - RB Rutgers.  Good scheme fit… blazing fast, decent size 5’ 10”/ 215,  and ran behind a crappy o-line.  Fastest RB at combine.  Late round flyer.

    Seems like a perfect Shanahan late round type of prospect.  built like Elijah Mitchell but plays like Raheem Mostert.

  5. 22 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

    So, like, there arent any actual red flags?  

    Not too long ago a player who ran to the middle of the field and planted a flag on the opposing teams logo, was filmed grabbing his junk and yelling at the other team from the sideline, has footage of him running down the sideline giving his opponent the throat slice was taken 1st overall.  Oh and hey guess what, that player is also on film wasted, trying to run from the police.  But he had moxy and swagger!!!!!!

    The draft is legit, dumb.  Like really dumb.

     

     

    Agreed.  The 'red flags' are over blown when it comes down to the draft as everyone gets nit-picky about every prospect.  Its possible that there are other 'red flags' that are just not available to the public but these issues seem to just be minor concerns.

    • Upvote 1
  6. 4      OL        Ickey Ekwonu
    10    WR       Drake London
    35    EDGE    Nik Bonitto
    38    LB         Quay Walker 
    69    C          Cameron Jurgens
    111  CB        Zyon McCollum
    117  FS        J.T. Woods
    146  WR      Bo Melton
    163  RB        Isaih Pacheco

  7. 34 minutes ago, JiFapono said:

    For this, thank you!

    What are the "red flags" and "maturity" issues w/ George Perkins?  

    Has just a few that were on-field issues:

    2019: Suspended during the 1st half of the Georgia Tech game for violating team rules.  Eventually ejected from game.

    2019: Suspended for the 1st half of the LSU game, for fighting with a defender in the Georgia Tech game.

    "Unfortunately, [Pickens] got an undisciplined penalty and when you make undisciplined decisions, regardless of what's done first, you pay a penalty for that," Smart said. "He won't be able to play the first half of next week and when you make emotional decisions, that's what happens. We're going to help George. We're going to help him grow up. We're going to help him make better decisions so he can help our team, but that's unfortunate."

    Smart called Pickens' actions both "selfish" and "undisciplined."

    "I mean, don't be stupid," Smart said. "It's just silly, it's selfish, it's undisciplined. It's, 'Why?' You ask yourself why. Why would I give up an opportunity over what we have next week? Over what? I always ask guys, 'Was it worth it?' That's what I always say. 'Was it worth it?' It's not worth it to me when you hurt the team.

    "But you live and you grow up and you love them. And look, I love George Pickens. He went to the hospital with us on Friday and did an unbelievable job. He had as much charisma and as much care for those kids as anybody we had there. George is a great kid. He's a freshman."

    2020: Flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct for squirting water on the Tennessee QB when he ran out-of-bounds on the Georgia sideline

    Georgia wideout George Pickens squirted water at Tennessee quarterback Jarrett Guarantano after the Vol signal-caller ran and fell out of bounds on the Bulldog sideline Saturday.

    Pickens received a 15-yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, and Tennessee later took a 21-17 lead on that drive off a 27-yard touchdown pass.

    After the game, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart expressed his displeasure with Pickens' actions.

    "When somebody comes out of bounds and you squirt water at them, what are we? Are we seven and eight years old?" Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart said, per ESPN's Harry Lyles Jr.

    "I mean come on, let's play football. Let's don't be silly."

    ----

    "George is a talented player. In terms of leadership, it starts from within; it starts with him. He's got to do a great job of making sure he's handling all the things that he's got to do both on and off the field,” Smart said. “George is growing up, as all players do, and we need him to grow up faster. We need him to lead more. He's certainly a talented player, but sometimes that can be a disease at Georgia that affects you. You have to be careful of that, because what makes George great: his love for the game. And you just cannot let that be a weakness; you've got to use it as a strength."

    ----

    “It’s just one of continued growth and maturity, and he has embraced it,” Hankton said of Pickens’ mental development. “When you look at our entire team and you talk about altruism, I think there’s this aura of selflessness and a positive vibe. It has really continued to grow; it really shines brighter. For (Pickens), he’s embraced that, so I’m looking forward to how he continues to move forward.”

    ----

    There are also Georgia fans that called him out his freshman year for only playing hard when it was a pass play and putting little to no effort when it was a run play or the ball was not coming his way.

    There may be other issues that are not known to the public, but you can see that he has been growing up and maturing.  It is really up to the NFL team that drafts him to have the environment for him to thrive.  He has the talent of a 1st rounder, but the 'red flags' and injury has pushed him down to borderline 1st or early 2nd round.  Wouldn't say these concerns remove him from the draft board, but the coaching staff needs to be up to the challenge to help him continue to grow and mature.

     

     

  8. Another interesting tidbit from this podcast was the discussion of the number of 1st round graded players.  Daniel has 16, Bucky has 18 and Brett Veach (KC's GM) has 16-18 1st round graded players.  

    And the follow up to that discussion was that Daniel had a hard time filling out his top 150.  Once he got to 130, he believes there is a huge drop off.  He has 2 punters and 1 kicker in his top 150 which is not typical, there just isn't the prospects after around the 4th round.  They talk about either trading up with later picks (5-7) to get into the 4th or just trading 5-7 round picks for a pick next year.

    • Upvote 3
  9. On 4/20/2022 at 1:42 PM, C Mart said:

    “A lot of his issues come off the field. Work habits, how he’s going to fit on a team. His talent level is up there with guys in the second and third round but a lot of people have him further down because of his football makeup and personal character.” Was thrown out of one game and suspended. Removed from one team’s draft board because of off-field issues. “Very talented,” a second scout said. “There’s some boom or bust with him. The injury, and being sort of coddled at Georgia … there’s maybe some football character concerns.” 

    The talent is there but from what I've read and heard on podcasts is that the character concerns are what is moving him down.  He needs to find the right team and there are questions about his maturity.  

    From a fan post on a Georgia forum from 2020:

    "He does NOT BLOCK this year. Watch him. He takes all plays off that do not directly involve him. Very selfish! I say bench him or use him as a decoy. He needs to grow up."

    The thing is, he can be a very effective blocker when he wants to be.

     

  10. 2 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

    Is it me or does Shenault seem like a better player than all the JAG WRs the Jags signed?

    Doesn't fit the scheme.  Jay Gruden had built a lot of his offense around Shenault.  Direct quote from Gruden :"He’s getting all those reps, the reverses and all that stuff. Some other guys we can get out in space and do somethings, but Laviska’s a different cat and calls for a different type of play. Once he went out, it shortened up our playbook, but we had plenty of other stuff to get to. We were fine.”

  11. 3 hours ago, Bruce Harper said:

    Walker is a beast of an athlete but, based on his college production, I don't think he is a top ten pick.  9.5 sacks in three years of college play does not move the needle for me.

    Pre-combine Daniel Jeremiah had moved him to 10 and said he heard teams had him in their top 5.  But he was hesitant to move him any higher because of the lack of production.  Since the combine though, his stance has shifted a little and thinks teams have him in the top 5 strictly due to his athletic upside and versatility.  He is not just a pass rusher which allows teams to be more creative with his usage and could still have a role if the pass rushing skills don't lead to production.  He is less of a boom or bust player that is typical of strictly pass rushing prospects due to his playability.

  12. There have been a lot of discussions on this forum about the way the Jets / Douglas should approach free agency.  The approaches range from filling depth in free agency and building to the draft to going after high cost premium difference making players.  I came across a PFF article that presents a statistical analysis of finding value in free agency.

    https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-success-free-agency-nfl-team-2022

    TL;DR version: "This goes to show that the winners of next week’s free agency frenzy will probably not be the teams that made the splash signings but rather those who find valuable contributors for little or medium money."

    Quote

    NFL free agency doesn't officially open until March 16, but that didn't stop teams from getting a sizeable headstart on roster-building this past week, with the Green Bay Packers re-signing longtime quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the Denver Broncos trading for star quarterback Russell Wilson.

    The “legal tampering period” of free agency will begin on Monday, March 14, bringing with it the most crucial part of the offseason. A franchise's decisions within the next few weeks will shape its direction for the next two years.

    Naturally, the most important task for teams during the offseason is to build a team of talented players for the next season. While good drafts facilitate long- and mid-term success, some stellar personnel moves in free agency or via the trade market can spark a quick turnaround or make a good team even better.

    Look no further than the Buffalo Bills as a recent example, as the aggressive offseason moves — like the trade for wide receiver Stefon Diggs — fuelled the postseason runs of 2020 and 2021 and made them arguably the best team of the 2021 season.

    Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Bengals drafted Joe Burrow and Ja’marr Chase, core players for years to come, but their 2021 Super Bowl run wouldn’t have been possible without their free agency signings. Their six most valuable players, according to PFF WAR, include Chidobe Awuzie, Mike Hilton and Vonn Bell  — all of whom were signed in the 2020 or 2021 offseason. Other recent free agents who made a significant impact for Cincy last season include Eli Apple and D.J. Reader.

    In this article, we want to highlight the teams that have successfully signed valuable contributors and those that have failed to get value out of their investments.

    To get a complete picture, we'll look at free-agency signings, re-signings and trades at any point in the offseason — any time a team adds a non-rookie player to their roster. We will discount extensions for players who still have a year or more left on their contract.

    METHOD

    We will measure the success of these personnel moves with the help of PFF WAR, which gives us an accurate indication of the value the signings and trades contributed on the field in terms of wins.

    Since the goal of free-agency signings and player trades is an immediate improvement, we only look at the first two years and use the greater WAR in these two seasons to measure success. For one-year contracts, we will use the WAR for that season.

    Whenever we attempt to identify the teams that got the most on-field value out of their personnel moves, we also have to talk about cost. The natural way to look at the cost of free agency moves is in cap dollars.

    To get a reasonable comparison of free agency moves in the 2020 offseason compared to the 2014 offseason, we will translate the APY (average dollars per year) value of contracts to the percentage of the total cap space a team was granted at the year of the signing.

    The cost of trades needs further analysis since it’s not obvious how to compare cost to salary cap dollars. We use the surplus value of draft picks to translate the draft picks that the team had to give up into salary cap dollars.

    The total cost of a trade is the contract cost of the player in the first two years for his new team — or only the first year if the player remained on the new team for only one year — plus the trade cost in salary cap dollars. Again, we will work with percentages of the total cap space to compare trades in different years.

    For this article, we will translate all percentages of the total cap space into salary cap dollars in the year 2022. For example, 10% of the cap is $22.08M since the 2022 cap space is $220.8M.

    DIMINISHING RETURNS FOR EXPENSIVE INVESTMENTS

    With the cost and value of each personnel move established, here is a chart for all moves including non-quarterbacks since 2013:

    all_non_qbs-1024x717.png

    While a greater investment also leads to a greater return on average, it’s apparent that there are diminishing returns for investments with an APY greater than $10M.

    The average value of moves with an APY cost of $20M isn’t twice as large as the average value of moves with an APY cost of $10M. This brings us back to the long-known conclusion that medium-sized free agency deals tend to work out best for teams, not the top deals.

    We can also look at quarterbacks, and it’s not surprising that the Buccaneers signing Tom Brady was the best quarterback signing in recent history.

    all_qbs-1024x717.png

    THE BEST TEAMS IN FREE AGENCY

    Since the WAR values of quarterbacks are so much larger, we will perform the remaining analysis without quarterbacks.

    We start with looking at the best teams since 2013:

    teams_since_13-1-1024x717.png

    Bill Belichick is often called the best coach of all time, but his success as a coach can’t be disentangled from his success as a GM.

    Nobody got more value out of their investments than Belichick since 2013, with excellent value signings and trades for players such as Darrelle Revis, Julian Edelman, Jason McCourty, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung, Martellus Bennett, Jabaal Sheard and Adrian Phillips.

    Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman has also been very successful with his offseason moves. His reputation has stagnated due to Carson Wentz’s demise, but he is still one of the best GMs in the league and probably underrated right now.

    From now on, we will focus on the last five offseasons to look at more recent success. The following chart shows the best offseason classes from all teams:

    classes-1-1024x683.png

    We can see the 2021 Cincinnati Bengals are among the teams that got more value out of their investments than one would expect. It’s also noteworthy that the San Francisco 49ers had two very good offseasons in a row, a large reason why they almost made the Super Bowl despite starting a mediocre quarterback on an expensive veteran contract.

    In the last two years, the 49ers added or re-signed Trent Williams, Jimmie Ward, Jason Verrett, Arik Armstead, Jaquiski Tartt, Alex Mack, K’Waun Williams, Tom Compton, all of whom contributed positively for them.

    Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders also had an excellent offseason in 2020, adding or re-signing Kendall Fuller, Ronald Darby, Logan Thomas, Brandon Scherff, Wes Schweitzer and others as valuable pieces to their roster. While the defense had a down year in 2021, the Commanders are probably still only a good QB away from contention.

    Looking at the best teams since 2017, it sticks out that the 49ers had the best offseasons, illustrating that Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch have done a very good job identifying players that fit into Shanahan’s system.

    teams_since_17-1-1024x717.png

    AN ALTERNATIVE WAY OF MEASURING COSTS

    After assessing costs in salary cap dollars, another way of looking at personnel moves is whether a player generated more value after the signing than before.

    To do that, we compute the WAR of each player in the year before he signed or got traded and compare that number to the value the team got out of him after the move (measured the same way as above).

    The following chart show all offseason classes from that angle:

    classes_prior_war-1-1024x683.png

    The 2020 Commanders and 49ers still stand out, but this chart also shows how good the Bears‘ 2018 offseason was. All things considered, Khalil Mack was probably too expensive, but Kyle Fuller, Prince Amukamara and Allen Robinson II were valuable investments, and all three of them generated more WAR than in 2017.

    Here is a look at all teams since 2017:

    teams_since_17_prior_war-1-1024x717.png

    It’s noteworthy that most teams get less value from their signings when we compare it to the value the same players generated a year prior, a phenomenon we investigated last year.

    It’s noteworthy that this is even the case when measuring the value with the maximum WAR of the first two years with the new team, i.e., the player has two chances to surpass the value he had with his old team.

    This goes to show that the winners of next week’s free agency frenzy will probably not be the teams that made the splash signings but rather those who find valuable contributors for little or medium money.

     

     

     

  13. 2 hours ago, Jdub03 said:

    It's brought up consistently in multiple threads, the need we have for a #1 WR. In those threads there seems to be a wide disparity on what the definition of a #1 WR is to each individual.

    Do we really need this fabled #1 WR, or simply a WR that can beat press in one on one situations, get open where there supposed to be at a high rate, and catch the ball when on target? Some of the above is hard to quantify when only looking at production statistics (rec/yds/tds) due to things outside of the WRs control, i.e Oline and Qb play, scheme, etc...

    What criteria does everyone use to determine what a #1 WR is? What characteristics are you looking for in a WR to add to this Jets offense? 

    A #1 WR is different from WR1.  A WR# is used to order wide receivers.  So WR1 on a team is the most productive wide receiver on that team.  A WR1 in the league is the highest producing wide receiver in the league.  During draft season, WR# is used to order or rank the wide receiver prospects.

    This is different from a number one wide receiver (#1 WR).  A number one wide receiver is not based on production but rather the traits and abilities of the wide receiver.  Its a wide receiver that has the ability to beat any type of defense / defensive player.  They can beat smaller, quicker defensive players with physicality or long speed.  They can beat physical, bigger defenders with quickness or route running.  They are smart enough to read and exploit coverages.  They are players that cannot be simply shut down by eliminating one aspect of their game.  On the flip side, some wide receivers have limitation that force them into roles as just a deep threat, or must play in the slot because they have a harder time releasing at the line against bigger corners.  Other wide receivers may not have the speed to be a deep threat, and can work underneath.  A number one wide receiver is a complete wide receiver.

    It's why during draft season or free agency they can label players as number one wide receivers even though they don't know what team they will go to.  They are talking about the traits of the player that make them number one wide receivers.  They don't know if they will be the highest producing wide receiver on their new team, but they do have the talent to be productive through their varied skillset.

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