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nyjbuddy

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Posts posted by nyjbuddy

  1. 5 hours ago, THE BARON said:

    I'm sensing a little danger here.  I love the idea of a base 4-2-5 defense for "today's NFL", but I'm starting to get the idea that Saleh is a "devotee" of a specific system.  I've had quite enough of that with Gase.  I *hope* Saleh is not another cement-head out to jam square pegs into round holes in search of past glory. 

    Rex's defense was formidable due to his ability to assess the moment and adjust for the moment at the moment.  What he called his base defense was not all that important.   There was also tremendous flexibility in all three levels of his defense.

    I had reservations about a coach that publicly announces "extreme violence" on his wristband, but now I'm really concerned to see that Saleh  was hell bent on recreating" a particular system. 

    That's bad news.  

    I'm not sure Saleh is totally committed to the Seattle style of defense.  The foundation of the defense may be what he ran in Seattle, but he has made changes and continues to make changes.  Over the years in SF, his defense changed according to their personnel and what worked for them.  This came from a write-up from pff in 2019: "One of the biggest changes has been going from running cover-3 almost on over half their snaps last year to only around a third this season."  Here is an article that talks about the changes over three years in SF: https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/how-the-49ers-defense-will-change-in-2020

    Quote

     

    Robert Saleh will unveil a new version of the 49ers defense this fall.

    What will it look like?

    Before I tell you, let me quickly take you through the history of his 49ers deenses, starting with Version 1.0.

    Version 1.0

    This was the 49ers defense in 2017 and 2018, and it was classic Pete Carroll -- stuff the Seahawks did in 2011 when Saleh was one of their defensive quality control coaches. It featured five defensive players on the line of scrimmage to stop the run, and Cover 3 to stop the pass -- zone coverage. This defensive approach worked well 10 years ago, but it’s predictable and NFL offenses figured out how to beat it. So from 2017 to 2018, the 49ers defended the run well, but opposing quarterbacks shredded them.

    That’s why Saleh unveiled Version 2.0 in 2019.

    Version 2.0

    In 2019, Saleh hired defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who installed a Wide 9 defensive front -- meaning four men on the line instead of five. This Wide 9 enhanced the 49ers pass rush and weakened the run defense -- a smart tradeoff in the modern NFL, which is a passing league.

    Saleh also hired defensive backs coach Joe Woods, who varied and disguised the 49ers’ coverages. Instead of using Cover 3 every play, sometimes to keep teams guessing they used Cover 4, meaning four deep defenders and three underneath ones.

    These changes made the 49ers defense the second best in the NFL. But the defense fell apart during the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl -- gave up 21 points. Wasn’t good enough to hold down the Chiefs offense for an entire game. And the 49ers lost.

    So Saleh changed his defense again this offseason.

    Version 3.0

    Woods did such a good job with the 49ers in 2019, the Browns hired him this offseason to be their defensive coordinator. So Saleh needed a new defensive backs coach.

    Most analysts expected Saleh to hire Kris Richard, who was the Seahawks cornerbacks coach when Saleh was their defensive quality control coach. Richard is a zone-coverage specialist who spent the past two seasons with the Cowboys.

    Saleh didn’t hire him. Instead, Saleh hired Tony Oden, a man-to-man coverage specialist who coached the Lions defensive backs from 2014 to 2017, and the Dolphins defensive backs from 2018 to 2019.

    This is Version 3.0 of Saleh’s defense.

    Saleh knows a defense can’t play purely zone coverage and win a Super Bowl anymore. Those days are over. Offenses are too sophisticated -- the best quarterbacks carve up zone coverage. See: Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.

    A great defense must play man-to-man and zone coverage.

    The only team that has beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs since Mahomes became their quarterback was the Patriots in 2018. That season, their linebackers coach was Brian Flores, who became the Dolphins head coach in 2019. He and Oden worked together for a year.

    The Patriots primarily are a man-to-man coverage defense -- they have a different philosophy than Saleh. Bill Belichick wants to take away the opponent’s best weapon. Saleh wants to take away big plays.

    When the Patriots beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, Belichick double covered Tyreek Hill -- took him out of the game. He finished with one catch.

    When the 49ers played the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, the 49ers didn’t double Hill. Instead, they played their typical zone coverages, and gave up a 44-yard catch to Hill on third-and-15, which changed the entire complexion of the game.

    Oden probably would have doubled Hill on that play, and for most of the night.

    Oden should improve the 49ers’ ability to play man-to-man coverage, which is exactly what they need. He helped develop Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard, who intercepted seven passes in 2018, and helped develop cornerback Darius Slay, who intercepted eight passes in 2017.

    Maybe Oden can develop Ahkello Witherspoon, who is the 49ers’ best man-to-man corner. He struggles playing zone, so more man coverage would benefit him. But it wouldn’t benefit Richard Sherman, because he struggles playing man to man. Meaning Sherman might play less in 2020 than he did in 2019.

    Version 3.0 could look quite different than the previous one.

     

    Tony Oden followed Saleh over to the Jets and is their current cornerbacks coach.  Jeff Ulbrich's defenses have also played less zone (around league average) when he was in Atlanta.  "I’m not going to be handling play calling duties on defense, got the utmost respect and confidence in Jeff Ulbrich to be able to do that" - Saleh. Saleh's strategy has been to change the defense to do what works. 

    • Upvote 3
  2. 2 hours ago, Dinamite said:

    I can see Jets trading for Nick Foles, or hopefully just signing him when he gets cut.

    This is a possibilty with the connection between Douglas and Foles.  Possibly a 2022 7th round pick that escalates to a 6th if he plays more than a certain amount, which should be unlikely.  I believe it would be a post-June 1 trade to benefit the Bears.  $4M in 2021 and $8M in 2022.  Only $1M of that 2022 is guarunteed, so they could cut him in 2022 but $8M for a veteran like him is reasonable especially with the starting QB on his rookie contract.  Or they could wait until he is cut.  Not sure how many teams need a veteran backup QB.

  3. 2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

    I must say I’m surprised the jets haven’t traded up today.  You’d figure they know who they want and won’t use all 6 picks.  

    Still a lot of talent out there.  Good special teamers and depth.

  4. RB Chris Evans
    RB Michael Carter
    FB Ben Mason
    OT Tommy Doyle
    OT Landon Young
    OT Dan Moore Jr.
    OG Sedarius Hutcherson
    OG Jared Hocker
    EDGE Quincy Roche
    EDGE Elerson Smith
    EDGE Janarius Robinson
    LB Jabril Cox
    LB Dylan Moses
    CB Marco Wilson
     
  5. 5 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

    I'm not Judging Lance in the post just saying I thought he would have been available at 12. The Lance hype came in long after the San Fran trade which makes it even worse to dump 2 1's and a 3. Most things I read had Lance going late in round one with a possible slip to round 2 and if you look at the way it played out he would have easily last to 12 where the Niner's were originally. 

    No doubt there is potential but its mostly based on athletics since the guy has very little playing time and 1 game in the last 2 years. What was he learning the last 2 years doing nothing ? What happens if Jimmy G finally gets healthy an starts playing well ? That would equal 3 first round picks in the toilet IMHO. So once again I don't want to knock the potential of the player but I feel San Fran could have easily waited a year before making this move because Lance does absolutely nothing for them this year and they better be in a position to add a veteran back up if Jimmy gets hurt again or risk throwing the kid to the wolves way too early. That will wind up being a huge test for the zone scheme running game for sure :)

     

    I agree they probably didn't need to trade up so high.  I think the 49ers traded up to 3 after they saw his pro day.  Since January, Lance has been considered a top 10 pick and eventually rose to top 7 (https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2021/trey-lance).  They probably could have traded up to around 7, as they would have needed to get in front of Carolina since the Darnold trade happened later.  But with QBs getting pushed up toward draft time, getting into the top 5 was probably their best bet.

    With Garappolo though, there is just a limitation in his abilities similar to the limitation with Alex Smith in KC.  So even with a healthy Jimmy G, the 49ers probably want to move to a more explosive and dynamic offense.  Lance allows them to do that.  Also, Garappolo's best year (2019) is slightly above the NFL average in terms of production.  If you can get a similar level of passing production from Lance, basically league average, and add to it 200-300 rushing yards and a 3-4 rushing TDs, thats top 10 production from the QB.

    Also, I agree they probably need another veteran backup in case Garappolo gets injured but they also don't want a backup that hinders Lance's development by taking away practice snaps.

     

  6. 3 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

    San Fran moving from 12 to 3 giving up 2 firsts and a third to get a guy they could have drafted at 12. Dumb Move.

    This move basically says they are giving Garoppolo a few years to do something while Lance hopefully develops. They could have easily done this by not trading at all still going with Garoppolo and getting a premium player at 12 this way if Garoppolo does not work out they can make a QB choice next year or the year after keeping their 2 number 1's and third.

    They could have traded back in the first and got Najee Harris and accumulated more picks . I say this because their vaunted zone blocking scheme does well during a game but when they needed it most to secure a SB win vs Mahomes and KC they didn't have a runner to shut that game down when the box was stacked . Sure you can accumulate yards during the season and during games but its obvious you need a superior back to run the ball in the 4th when the RB by committee fails on an epic scale. This league still pushes the bad value of a RB in the first which is terribly flawed logic all while the smart teams like the Steelers jump all over Harris ...tell me the Steelers are a bad drafting team ? 

    I hope to god the Jets get a solid every down back soon to not only do what I stated above but to take the pressure off Zack Wilson to ignore this would be a big mistake. 

    Not sure the 49ers' pick of Trey Lance was that bad.  Sure they may not have needed to get to 3 but if that was their guy, they did what they needed to get him.  Same thing the Jets did by trading up from 23 to 14, but the 49ers did it for a QB, in which the cost is understandable.  Listening to several podcast this morning, some have noted that this could be similar to the Alex Smith/Pat Mahomes/KC situation with Garappolo playing out his contract until Lance is ready.  If you look back at grades and reviews of the Mahomes pick back in 2017, there was some praise but a lot of similar criticism for the KC move/pick.

    Steven Ruiz - "Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick."

    Dan Kadar (gave KC a C) - "My grade on what Kansas City did in this draft is due to my opinion that they gave up way too much to trade up for quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the first round. Again, if he works out, I look dumb and it doesn’t matter. But to give up pick Nos. 27 and 91 this year and a first-round pick in 2018 is a lot."

    Vinny Iyer (gave KC a C-) - "Trading up for Mahomes, a big-armed gunslinger who really doesn’t mesh with the true mentality as Alex Smith’s successor, set up a bad tone in this draft.”

    I am not saying Trey Lance will be another Mahomes, but he is a player that has the potential to be a great player and Garappolo has limitations that prevent the 49ers from really having an explosive offense.  Lance allows the 49ers to open up the offense a bit more and enables them to run more RPO and more misdirection.  Imagine a 49ers offense that builds upon what they have now (high efficiency passing) with a bit of Baltimore Raven's (Lamar Jackson/J .K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards) highly efficient running game.  

  7. 42 minutes ago, ryu79 said:

    If by some miracle Jenkins is there at 34 - pick him too! I get the desire to add picks but if we could lock in real quality at LG and RG this draft it would totally be worth it.

    Or Douglas does what he did in the 2nd round last year.  With Jenkins on the board, he trades down a couple spots and Jenkins is still available.

    • Upvote 1
  8. Who are your favorite draft prospects for 2021?

    RB Chris Evans

    FB Ben Mason

    WR Dwayne Eskridge

    WR Nico Collins

    WR Simi Fehoko

    WR Terrace Marshall

    TE Hunter Long

    TE Pat Freiermuth

    C Creed Humphrey

    OT Liam Eichenberg

    OT Tommy Doyle

    OT Landon Young

    OT Dan Moore Jr.

    OG Sedarius Hutcherson

    OG Jared Hocker

    EDGE Ronnie Perkins

    EDGE Quincy Roche

    EDGE Joe Tryon

    EDGE Elerson Smith

    EDGE Janarius Robinson

    EDGE Jaelan Phillips

    LB Baron Browning

    CB Jaycee Horn

    CB Paulson Adebo

    CB Marco Wilson

    CB Brandon Stephens

  9. I hope OL at 23 is the pick but would Douglas pass on a premium position pick at EDGE or CB if one of the top players dropped?  That fifth year option is huge for those positions, more so than a guard or center.  I could see them going EDGE at 23 and signing Sherman post-draft.  Sherman may be a back-up plan if they don't draft a CB in the early rounds that they see as an immediate starter.

    Also, do rookie offensive players help the development of a rookie QB?  The Jets seemed to have brought in skill position veterans (Davis, Cole, Coleman) that can help a rookie QB's development.  Supplanting those veterans with rookies may hinder the QB's development? And vice versa?

    • Upvote 1
  10. 3 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

    And if Wilson goes down with injury this year, then what?  Yes, it would be nice to have a pick for Darnold, but it's also good to have a depth chart and a chance to win with either.  Darnold starts the year if he can beat Wilson in camp... we see how it goes... can always make a change mid-year.  And then, so be it if he leaves with a lower round compensatory pick.  Otherwise we have nothing behind Wilson, a rookie who has already demonstrated a proclivity to injury.    Or alternatively, Darnold plays lights out, and maybe it is WIlson who is the odd man out.  JD will be forgiven if Darnold is a late bloomer.  Stacking the QB room, particularly since it doesn't overwhelm the cap, is not such a bad idea.  We wouldn't be the first team to do it.

    This is a possibility.  What if the exact opposite happens, where Darnold gets injured, highly likely given his past three seasons, and the draft pick plays lights out?  Darnold walks away and gets no pick in return.  Or what if Darnold can't beat out the draft pick?  The return for Darnold now would garner another starting caliber prospect.

    Signing someone like Alex Smith, who has proven he can win, more so than Darnold, would be a more ideal backup if they are worried about winning this year.  Smith also has more experience in the Shanahan offense and has shown to be a great locker room leader, especially with how he helped mentor Mahomes.

    If they feel Darnold is able to compete for the starting job, then they should not draft the QB at 2 to begin with.  

    Darnold and a 5th/6th round comp pick or Smith and a starting IOL/CB/EDGE? 

     

    • Upvote 1
  11. 2 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

    As someone who would lean toward keeping Darnold and building up the rest of the team, my sense is the tides are moving in the direction to take Zach Wilson.  If not, I would have thought the Jets would have been more adamant by now that they were keeping Darnold, so as to make a bidder's war for the number 2 pick.  That they've said nothing to me has me thinking they are likely going with the QB at 2.

    But this is where I disagree with others who think Darnold will simply be traded.  It's not clear that he has a bonafide starting position elsewhere, maybe Denver or WFT.  Otherwise he will compete for playing time.  And then he is a free agent the following year.  Teams are not likely to trade much in that scenario if they intend for him to be a backup or a one-year plug-in.  Given that, why wouldn't we do the same if we can't obtain a high draft pick for him (low 1st?).  If he is the bridge to Wilson but bounces back with a stellar year, we can franchise or let him walk and take the 3rd round compensatory pick if he signs a big contract elsewhere.  That decision would be based on Wilson's development and whether he takes over during the year.  It gives us two starting options if one of them gets hurt.  What's not to like about a great qb room of Darnold, Wilson, and Morgan, with tremendous flexibility for next year?

    Seems to me that it doesn't make sense to trade Darnold in any scenario unless another  team gets desperate and is willing to part with a higher pick.  He is cheap this year.  And that's even assuming we take Wilson, which is looking more likely by the day.

    If the Jets cannot trade Darnold this year, the free agency market for him next may not garner anything close to a 3rd round compensatory pick.  He would need to sign a $15M+ per year deal.  As a comparison Mariota's 2 year deal $17M with the Raiders, would have resulted in a 6th round comp pick for the Titans.  That could be the same type of contract Darnold would sign.  If a team is willing to sign him to a $15M+ contract next offseason, what would teams be willing to give up for Darnold at $10M this year and $19M next (exercise 5th year option)?  By trading for Darnold, the team that gets him would not have to fight for his rights next offseason.

    It comes down to how much do teams value Darnold?  Is he worth trading away for a 1st/2nd or do you take your chances and hope he signs a $15M+ contract?  More likely he will sign something that will garner a 5th or 6th round pick.  An alternative strategy that has been mentioned is taking a QB at 2, trading Darnold and signing someone like Nick Mullens, Alex Smith or CJ Beathard.  You get a 1 year bridge QB that knows the system and can mentor the number 2 pick, you maximize the value you get from Darnold (a 1st/2nd over a 5th/6th) and you won't have any locker room loyalty issues.

    • Upvote 1
  12. 42 minutes ago, Dcat said:

    I agree, but I think the point was about a disappointing rookie season in general in 2020 one in which we got far less on the field than expected from the lot.  Not a "final" judgment.  But 1st year performance overall by 2020 picks was definitely "below expectations" for me.  

    Knowing he was building for the future, Douglas took more developmental prospects with more future upside, rather than immediate impact players.  Players develop during practice more so than during games.  Game experience is valueable and cannot be replaced but they spend way more time during practice developing these players.  4 - 5 hours a day, 5 days a week, for almost 25 weeks of film study, walk-thrus, weight training, meetings and on field drills outweighs the approximate 30 minutes of playing time each game, 16 times a year.  Getting on the field in year one is not as valueable as making sure they are building the right habits and developing the right process through out the season.  That is better for sustained success in the NFL, rather than throwing a rookie into the mix and forcing them to sink or swim.

    • Upvote 2
  13. Anthony Schwartz
    Wide receiver
    Height: 6-0 / Weight: 186
    Vertical: 32
    Broad: 10-3
    Bench: N/A
    40-yard dash: 4.26

    On expectations for Pro Day…
    "My expectations were just to run fast on my 40, do good on all my drills and then when it came to the position work, just being able to show good footwork, be fast in and out of my breaks, be clean in and out of my breaks. And I feel like I did all of what I listed. I feel like there's still room to improve, but I feel like today I showed I'm more than just that deep-threat guy. I can do everything a receiver is supposed to do."

     

     

     

  14. 55 minutes ago, varjet said:

    This is my take ^

    JD's biggest gaffe at this point was not drafting OL in the 3rd and 4th rounds last year.  He has seen that he can't sign anyone close to Damien Lewis and Michael Onwenu for 5x what the rookies were paid.  

    This is why the 1 year deals are great.  If the Jets make a mistake, they can easily move on.  Mistakes don't set the franchise back.  If they hit on a free agent, they can try to re-sign them before they are free agents again.

    • Upvote 2
  15. 36 minutes ago, BornJetsFan1983 said:

    JuJu wou;dnt play that much outside with Corey Davis and Mims here, but sure he would some. 

    THe big part you dont really give credit to is that Crowder was a wasted on the outside as well as in the slot. Not doing much with any opportunity.

    Juju is being touted as a versatile WR that can play on the outside.  But we didn't see that last year (His 2018 year he also led the league in slot targets with 92).

    The original point was not to compare Juju and Crowder.  The point was that adding Juju to the offense will add questions about the playing time as the offense the Jets were planning on implementing limits the usage of 3 WRs as compared to other NFL offenses.  When the team is running 2 or less WRs more than 50% of the time, which 2 WRs of the 3/4 WRs will be on the field (Davis, Mims, Juju, Crowder, etc).

    If we compare Juju to Crowder, Crowder was more efficient in the limited opportunities than Juju was last year.

    image.thumb.png.82a5591361e5010731bf4e887e157a27.png

    If we project out Crowder to the full 16 games and continued his target rate, he would have ended up with an extra 26 targets.  With those 26 targets and his catch%, he would be projected to have 900 yards.  With his TD rate, he ends up with 8 TDs.  He would have had 70 more yards, one less TD on 13 less targets.

    2020 PFF grades: Crowder 75.3, Juju 68.2.

    2020 AV: Crowder 5 in 12 games, Juju 6 in 16 games.

    Crowder also had a higher YAC at 5.6 yards per reception vs Juju's YAC of 4.4 yards per reception.

    This raises the question of which Juju would the Jets be getting?  The 2018 or 2020 version of Juju?

     

    • Upvote 1
  16. 13 minutes ago, slats said:

    The Jets don’t have a Kittle on the roster (and Pitts is a pipe dream), so a big slot would fill some of that void. I’d expect a lot more three WR sets here than in SF. 

    If JD wanted to be cold and heartless, Crowder’s the guy he could come to in August and say, “we can either cut you or your pay, which do you prefer?”  
     
    And that’s only if they can’t get something worthwhile in a trade. 

    I'm just not sure that the WCO is built for running a lot of 3 WR sets.  Unless Mike LaFleur was planning on drastically deviating from the Shanahan WCO, I would expect to see the number of 3 WRs somewhere between the 49ers and the Packer which would still be below the league average.  The spacing and blocking concepts in a WCO really changes with 3 WRs which is why we don't see it very much.  Perhaps Mike LaFleur will be the one to change this but would have to see it first before we assume this is the case.

    As a comparison, Kittle runs less than 17% of his routes from the slot vs in-line.  So its not like the 49ers are running 3 WRs with one of them being a TE that is split out into the slot.  Deebo Samuel is another good example.  He played 15% of snaps in the slot in 2019 and 12% in 2020.  For a "slot" WR, that is a really low percentage.  

    Juju would have to play on the outside, which is something he didn't do a lot of last year (less than 20% of his snaps came on the outside).  Crowder, on the hand, played nearly one-third of his snaps outside as the Jets' "slot" WR. 

    • Upvote 1
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