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Everything posted by nyjbuddy

  1. If the QBs start to fall, my bold prediction would be Herbert to JAX after a trade back to 14. Tua to the Raiders at 12. Jordan Love to the Broncos at 15. Then the Dolphins sitting there at 18 scratching their heads.
  2. Jets: The Jets will not address the WR position until the second 3rd round pick. They will draft a defensive player (EDGE or CB) before the address the WR position. Draft: This draft will tie the record number of first round WRs (7).
  3. Looking for a late round developmental prospect: Trevis Gipson from Tulsa https://www.nfl.com/prospects/trevis-gipson?id=32194749-5056-4972-92bf-717d307ebaac
  4. The Jets have also shown some recent interest in James Smith-Williams https://www.nfl.com/prospects/james-smith-williams?id=3219534d-4984-1542-2bc0-161ee81572aa Good player but with a long history of injury. Probably a 3rd day or priority free agent type, but has the talent. Would be a Blessaun Austin type of situation. "to wear the team's No. 1 jersey in 2019 for this work ethic, character, leadership and accomplishments."
  5. TLDR; version: For the Jets, according to industry mock drafters: Hope that Wills falls, if not select Becton. If the top 3 tackles are off the board, select a wide receiver. Inspired by TheFantasyFootballer's comparison chart: https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/2020-nfl-draft-expert-mock-draft-comparison-chart/ I added on three extra mock drafts as they have been pretty consistent in their mock draft accuracy according to the huddle report. https://www.thehuddlereport.com/mock.scores.shtml. Huddle Report ranking over the past 5 drafts: 1. Kevin Hanson, 2. Ben Standig, 3. Forrest Long, 5. Ryan McCrystal, 6. Evan Silva Tracked the 6 most talked about draft prospects for the Jets at 11. I kept Thomas even though surprisingly he is never selected in any of these mock drafts. Ruggs was left off because he was always available but never selected. Player Evan Silva Rotoworld (4/20) Peter Schrager NFL.com (4/15) Jenny Vrentas MMQB (4/14) Daniel Jeremiah NFL.com (4/7) Bucky Brooks NFL.com (4/14) Matt Miller Bleacher Report (4/20) Joel Klatt FOX Sports (4/11) Mel Kiper Jr. ESPN (4/14) Charlie Campbell Walter Football (4/20) Walter Cherepinsky Walter Football (4/19) Dane Brugler The Athletic (4/13) Kevin Hanson Sports Illustrated (4/17) Ben Standig Forrest Long
The Huddle Report
(4/16) Ryan McCrystal
(4/14) Wirfs 6 (LAC) 4 (NYG) 6 (NYG) 
Trade with Chargers 4 (NYG) 4 (NYG) 6 (LAC) 5 (MIA) 8 (ARI) 4 (NYG) 4 (NYG) 4 (NYG) 10 (CLE) 4 (NYG) 8 (ARI) 4 (NYG) Wills 4 (NYG) 10 (CLE) 8 (ARI) 8 (ARI) 8 (ARI) 4 (NYG) 10 (CLE) 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 8 (ARI) 18 (MIA) 4 (NYG) 11 (NYJ) Becton 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 9 (JAX) 10 (CLE) 8 (ARI) 8 (ARI) 10 (CLE) 14 (TAM) 18 (MIA) 10 (CLE) 11 (NYJ) 8 (ARI) 14 (TAM) 14 (TAM) Thomas 10 (CLE) 14 (TAM) 9 (TAM)
Trade with Jags 14 (TAM) 14 (TAM) 10 (CLE) 14 (TAM) 14 (TAM) 10 (CLE) 14 (TAM) 14 (TAM) 14 (TAM) 10 (CLE) 10 (CLE) 18 (MIA) Jeudy 12 (LV) 15 (DEN) 12 (LV) 12 (LV) 12 (LV) 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 9 (JAX) 13 (SF) 13 (SF) 15 (DEN) 13 (SF) 11 (NYJ) 12 (LV) 15 (DEN) Lamb 13 (SF) 12 (LV) 13 (SF) 11 (NYJ) 11 (NYJ) 12 (LV) 12 (LV) 13 (SF) 9 (JAX) "10 (PHI) 
Trade with Browns" 12 (LV) 12 (LV) 12 (LV) 11 (NYJ) 8 (ARI) Insight from mock drafts: Most feel Wirfs will be the first tackle off the board, with a few that believe Wills will be the first Wills expected to be the second tackle most of the time, with a few times its Becton Thomas is consistently the 3rd or 4th tackle At the very least, one of either Lamb or Jeudy will be available at 11, if not both From the mock drafters point of view for the Jets picks: If Wills is there, Jets selected him (only Standig disagrees - selects Jeudy over Wills) If Wills is gone, and Becton is available, the Jets select Becton (only Long disagrees - selects Lamb over Becton) If the top 3 tackles are gone, select either Jeudy or Lamb (only Long disagrees - selects Lamb over Becton) There have been reports as to how inaccurate the mock drafts have been this year, so this maybe totally off the mark come draft day.
  6. Hope Douglas also took a little bit of this from Newsome: "Newsome is responsible for the “Raven Way,” which is a brand of football that can only come from loving to play the game. While it is true that Newsome will take the best player available while ignoring needs at times, it always works out. He never chooses a player that would be a bad fit for the Raven way and you can bet the player selected loves playing football.You can also bet he has two elements that cannot be measured at the scouting combine or during a pro day workout. The one element Newsome is perhaps the best in the league at judging is a player’s heart and will. He also has a pretty good finger on a player’s work ethic as well." Love playing the game has rarely been a requirement for being selected by the Jets. Last time the Jets had this mentality Rex Ryan was leading them to two back-to-back AFC championship games.
  7. Using the Rich Hill model, which has taken into consideration recent trades, the compensation looks a little different. The Jets 11th pick would be 358 points according to the model: Team Round Overall Value Difference Compensation to get to 11 (value) Total comp value Jets give back Raiders 1 12 347 11 12 (347) 121 (22) 369 158(10) Broncos 1 15 315 43 15 (315) 77 (60) 375 120(22) Falcons 1 16 305 53 16 (305) 78 (59) 364 191(5) Eagles 1 21 261 97 21 (261) 53 (106) 367 158(10) Trading down doesn't look as good when using recent trade data. The Jimmy Johnson model may be a little outdated.
  8. Interestingly, most sites with O/U odds have Wills and Wirfs going by the 8.5 pick, with Thomas and Becton taken somewhere around the 12.5 pick. Thomas before, Becton mixed. I chose Thomas but he may be gone by then.
  9. Expecting a late 1st round run with teams that have the luxury of reaching for a WR. WRs that may have 2nd round grades but won't be there at the end of the 2nd. Then the run to continue into the early 2nd round with teams having filled other holes with their first picks. The consensus mock drafts have been around 6-7 first round wide receivers and another 7-10 in the 2nd. Jets could be there at the start of the third wave of wide receivers or find some really good value at other positions. Borderline 1st round edge, cb and offensive linemen that fall.
  10. Just a tidbit from the Raven's organization and the way "scheme-fit" is handled there. After the scouts have deliberated enough and added their grades to each prospect, they invite the coach(es) to get their perspective on the players. But the question they answer is a little different from what is being talked about here. The coaches are told to be in the mindset of already having the player on the roster and going through a game planning situation. They are asked questions like, "If player x is your starting tackle, what will this player allow you to do? What types of plays could you, or would you run with this player?" It changes the perspective from limiting a selection due to their negatives to focusing on what a player is capable of doing. If a coach cannot see how they would utilize a player, no matter how talented, that player would probably not see the field for that team. An example of this is the Lamar Jackson selection in Newsome's last draft. It was not that Jackson did not fit into the offense that was build around Joe Flacco, it was that Jackson could open up the offense and Harbaugh could do so much more with his skillset. He would not have been the selection if they were looking for "scheme-fit".
  11. What is even more interesting is that Joe Thomas was also interviewed for an article on cleveland.com a couple weeks ago. https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2020/04/joe-thomas-explains-the-challenges-facing-rookie-left-tackles-and-who-best-fits-the-browns-offense.html Which draft prospect is the best fit for the Browns at left tackle? Four tackles have separated themselves from the pack in most pre-draft analysis: Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs, Alabama’s Jedrick Wills Jr., Louisville’s Mekhi Becton and Georgia’s Andrew Thomas. Joe Thomas thinks any of the four would be fantastic as the next left tackle. Even Wills, who played right tackle in college. But he does have an order. “I would say, guys that are ready from day one, to be dominant in the run game, Wirfs would be the first guy,” Thomas said. “But if you’re going to ask a guy to drop back and pass block, which still happens and you still want that skill, then a guy like Mekhi Becton or Jedrick Wills would possibly, maybe, suit that bill just slightly more. But really I think the Browns are in such a great position because they need a left tackle. There’s four, maybe five of them who all could do a great job.” So... 1. Wirfs 2. Becton / Wills 4. Thomas Wirfs went from number 1 two weeks ago, to number 4. I wonder what changed?
  12. There is still value in grabbing one of these guys and playing them on the right side rather than the left, or even moving them inside. The list of pass rushers that the right tackle must go against is pretty daunting: Kahlil Mack, Von Miller, TJ Watt, Shaq Barrett, Za’Darius Smith, Arik Armstead, Myles Garrett, JJ Watt, Calais Campbell, Cameron Jordan, DeMarcus Lawerence, Joey Bosa, Danielle Hunter. These are players that primary lineup on the left side of the defense against the right guard and right tackle. The goal is to find the best offensive lineman, not just the best left tackle. If the selection ends up having to move inside and becomes a Quenton Nelson type player, it would be disappointing not to have an elite tackle, but wouldn't mind having an all-pro guard if that is the alternative. If the player must play the right tackle and handle teams number one pass rushers, then hopefully we end up with an all-pro like Lane Johnson. The versatility of these lineman are what make them attractive prospects. "How do you know someone doesn’t really know what they’re talking about when it comes to the NFL these days? When they talk about the difference between left tackles and right tackles or describe an offensive lineman as a “right tackle only,” that’s how. The truth is, anybody who has been paying close attention to the league the last few years realizes (or at least should) that there is no longer a distinction between the two positions on the edges of a team’s offensive line. If your team’s front office hasn’t figured that out yet, and there are still a few I’m not convinced have, you’ve got major problems." - Ross Tucker
  13. I don't think its a money thing when selecting a LT over a WR. Of the 3 top paid offensive linemen 2 are right tackles, Lane Johnson being the highest paid offensive lineman. 6 WRs get paid more than Anthony Castanzo, the highest paid left tackle. DeAndre Hopkins is looking for a new contract in the $18M range that would make that 7 WRs. There are 4 offensive linemen that make $16M or more. There are 10 WRs that make $16M or more. Wide receiver has become the 2nd highest paid individual position behind the QB. Offensive linemen remain the highest paid positional group but that is mainly due to the increase of salaries for the right tackle and guard positions. Center still remains low relative to the other positions. Scherff is the highest paid left guard and is the 6th highest paid lineman, Thuney 7th, Brooks 10th and Martin 11th all play right guard.
  14. I don't think it's only the trade down, it's also what else you would get from the trade. Perhaps an extra or better pick for selecting the same player. Imagine the Jets sitting at 11 with 1 WR, Wills and Jones on the board. The Jets are ok with both Wills and Jones but receive a call from the 49ers saying they want that last wide receiver before the Raiders. Dropping down two spots with them selecting a WR will guarantee both tackles still being there two picks later. So the 49ers are willing to send 13 and 31 for 11 and 48. The Jets could get the same player they would select at 11 at 13 but move from 48 to 31.
  15. https://www.newsday.com/sports/football/jets/stephen-hill-doesn-t-seem-too-worried-about-being-cut-1.9178969 - paywall August 29th, 2014 Newsday article after the Jets fourth preseason game and a day before he is cut titled: "Stephen Hill doesn't seem too worried about being cut". Asked if he's earned a spot on the Jets' 53-man roster, the wide receiver flashed a puzzled look. "Yeah? Like, I don't know why I shouldn't. But yeah," Hill said, giggling. So what exactly makes him so confident? "Honestly -- next question," he said, laughing again. "Next question." "No disrespect, but that's why they're on the outside," he said, referring to those who think his roster spot's in danger. "They're not in this locker room, they're not playing. That's all I can honestly tell you. "It's just my job to go out there and play. And that's what I'm getting done out there now," he said. "... I just worry about myself, what I put out on the field. I can't control those things. Things happen. I don't know what's going on. Just like the other guys. I'm just out here playing." https://draftwire.usatoday.com/2020/04/07/nfl-draft-prospects-2020-denzel-mims-baylor-interview/ From an April 7th 2020 article titled: "Meet Denzel Mims, the next generation of Baylor WR prospects." JM: You had an excellent week at the Senior Bowl back in January. Why did you accept the invite? Did you feel like you had something to prove? DM: I most definitely felt like I had something to prove. That’s the reason I went out there. I just really wanted to show everybody that I’m one of the best players in the country. I’ve always had that chip on my shoulder. I knew that some people were doubting me. I still have doubters today. There’s a lot of people out there who don’t think that I’m a good wide receiver. They mention that I went to Baylor and Baylor wide receivers never pan out at the next level. I just wanted to go out there and show that I’m cut from a different cloth. Things are different at Baylor now. I’m one of the best players in the country, and I believe I’ve proved that throughout this process. JM: How do you describe the way that you play the wide receiver position? What are you trying to achieve on a snap-by-snap basis? DM: I’m really just trying to be a great teammate on every snap. Whatever that means to my coach and to my teammates, that’s what I’m trying to do. I’m going out there to do what I was coached to do. I’m doing what I need to do. My assignment is my goal. I wanna go out there and block for my teammates. If my number gets called, I’m gonna make a play on the ball. Difference? One is arrogant, self centered and believes nothing is in his control to make the situation better. The other is out there, trying to get better, is motivated, has something to prove. Plays for his teammates, not for himself. Believes that he can control his destiny. Mims' optimism and drive could change after two years in the league, but if he just keeps the same mindset and drive he will be fine in the NFL.
  16. Baun could be there in the 3rd, depends on how teams feel about the diluted tests. Though some teams will brush it off, some may see it as an attempt to cover up and flush something out of your system. UFC banned IV usage because it masked doping and caused diluted samples. Love the Pittman pick. Think Hamler goes earlier anyway, closer to the beginning of round 2. With the Jets touting speed at the WR position, anyway they go after a faster WR? Both Pittman and Jefferson are not known to be speed guys. Perhaps Reagor (though might be gone by 48) or a guy like Quez Watkins in the 4th?
  17. No to this one. Injuries are starting to pile up on Smith and there were rumors on the USC forum that he was thinking about retiring. He struggles to keep his weight up with back and knee issues it may come earlier than expected.
  18. It's not a crapshoot. In more recent drafts organizations are beginning to look at the bigger picture when it comes to picking players the same way (actually more intense) they would with any potential hiring candidate. It was either an NFL Films producer or 30 for 30 producer that said that if you look at all the interviews of the successful and unsuccessful people they interviewed there is a common theme. Those that were successful focus on external reasons for their success: the city, their friends, teammates, coaches, family members, etc. For their failures they looked within and blamed themselves. Likewise, for those that were somewhat unsuccessful (what we call "busts") blamed others for their failures and the reason for their success was themselves. What organizations are realizing is that the success of a player is not only dependent on their athletic ability or skills on the field. Their success is actually rooted in their character, their environment and their motivation. Its hard for fans as we do not get to see all the behind the scenes activities these teams go through when vetting out these players. On the Move the Sticks podcast Jeremiah talks about how scouts do more than 50 interviews with a players' friends, family, classmates, teachers, pastors, high school coaches, opposing coaches, opposing players, the classmate that lived down the hall in their dorm, anybody and everybody they can to get a better understanding of the prospect. These players are early twenty year olds that are fulfilling a dream of theirs, getting a huge check deposited into their account before they even play an actual game. Thats a lot of pressure on someone that young to perform and succeed. As much as possible, these teams want to know how these players are going to react, not only this year but 4 to 5 years down the line. Are these players going to get along with their teammates, coaches, the front office, how will they do in the city they reside in? Some of these players may be playing their first ever home game in a state they were not born in. Some grew up on a farm where the nearest neighbor is miles away but now live in a building where a single wall separates them from their neighbor. In other occupations, people interview for a job or several jobs and get to choose whether or not they take the job depending on their preferences. In the NFL, if you get drafted, you don't get that choice. That is why some players prefer not to get drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds but rather sign as an UDFA because they get to choose where they go. These organizations want to know if these players are motivated to become great football players or collect a paycheck? Are they spending the offseason working out or spending all their money? When they run into a slump or bad times do they turn to friends and family or do they hold it in and isolate themselves? There is a whole other side to the evaluation of players that is starting to become more and more apparent to sports organizations. When you find players that possess the talent and fit with the culture of the organization, you get highly successful players. Too many people, fans, the media, teams and talent evaluators alike, overlook this aspect too often. Its like any job, if you enjoy the people you work with you are motivated to keep doing it and do well it. If you don't get along with your co-workers, bosses, the company in general, your performance suffers, you dread going into work and may end up moving on.
  19. It would feel like the 2014 Idzik draft. In a deep and talented WR class waiting until the later rounds to grab a quality starter would put a lot of pressure on those top picks to be successful. It would be easier to deal with picking the wrong one (i.e. 2012 draft: Stephen Hill over Alshon Jeffrey) vs totally missing out on a top notch WR (Cooks vs Pryor, Adams, Robinson or Landry vs Amaro).
  20. Rice played until 2004 and he has 3, Keyshawn has 1, Boldin has 1, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Jets WR coach Hines Ward has 1. Using Peters as an example actually works against the point you are trying to make. Peters got injured midway through their super bowl season and was replaced by a 5th round backup. The Eagles were able to still win a super bowl while losing their 9 time pro bowl left tackle. Before that super bowl year, he hadn't been on a team that won a playoff game.
  21. Yup. I think that may be the issue with these simulators, they aren't really up to date. Plus users that may be feeding the simulators are just selecting the next highest rated player without taking into the latest news which just preserves them being ranked high. I've seen some players recently rumored moving up into the 1st in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. But it was an interesting and fun exercise.
  22. Did another one from pro football network on basically auto pick by position: 11. Austin Jackson OT USC 48. John Simpson G Clemson 68. Gabriel Davis WR UCF 79. Keith Ismael C San Diego State 120. A.J. Green CB Oklahoma State 158. Casey Toohill OLB Stanford 191. James Robinson RB Illinois State 211. Tyrie Cleveland WR Florida
  23. Did a mock draft via a simulator, just took the best available determined by the simulator Rd1 LT - Jedrick Wills Rd2 Off G - Netane Muti Rd3 WR - Bryan Edwards Rd3 Off C - Keith Ishmael Rd4 CB - Amik Robertson Rd5 DL - James Smith-Williams Rd6 RB - James Robinson Rd6 WR - Quez Watkins
  24. I admit I have only watched a couple of AGG games (Auburn game and BYU game) and a few of his highlight videos. But read some of his draft profiles: "Initial acceleration at the line but also at the catch point is only marginal. His flying 20 has some kick to it but generally speaking he's not going to be dusting corners unless he's able to force a misstep with hand fighting. Hard angle breaks gear down and open window for DBs to jump across his face." "Gandy-Golden's long speed and consistency creating separation on his route stems will water down his viability as a volume receiver but he's a possession type who should carve out a productive niche in an NFL WR group." "With that said, his lack of a translatable skill set to separating at the next level is concerning." "Separation quickness on horizontal cuts is underwhelming. Isn’t very elusive, twitchy or sudden." "Gandy-Golden has little to no experience with a complex route tree, nor does he have the physical profile that lends itself to becoming a plus route runner. While players can survive by being experts in the vertical third of routes, Gandy-Golden isn't running away from NFL athletes, and even with his near-elite track/adjust and catch radius abilities, will struggle to find such success with NFL CBs unless he improves his releases. Gandy-Golden is a fringe development prospect who may struggle to stick in camp." "He is somewhat a one trick pony at this point in his football career. Deep routes and jump balls are the name of his game. AGG’s route tree development leaves a lot to be desired. He won a lot against lesser opponents with his ability to out jump and muscle smaller defenders. He will struggle with the NFL’s physical cornerbacks." "But don't expect the smaller-school product to get behind those defensive backs. Gandy-Golden is considerably slower than the other wide receivers in this year's draft class, evident in a 4.6-second 40-yard dash time at the NFL Combine. Some experts have questioned whether Gandy-Golden is even fast enough to play in the NFL." I agree some of these players will find a team to play for and if they find the right system they may be good. I just don't feel the Jets are the right system for a lot of these players. The theme of the offseason with the Jets has been explosiveness and speed. On resigning Anderson: "Robby Anderson has a skillset a lot of teams are looking for," Douglas said. "I think he can run by anybody." "It's great," Gase said, "to have a guy that can go over the top, that can really stretch the field, cause the safety to lean one way, make sure that they have some two-high looks, which just opens up some lanes for the running back. Anytime you add speed to your team, that's a positive thing for your offense." On the WRs in the draft: "There's a lot of 'em," Gase said. "The wide receiver group is a large group. There's a lot of speed, there's a lot of guys with experience, there's a lot of guys that can do a lot of good things." Douglas on what they are looking for: "Well, I think you saw that in the two teams [Chiefs and 49ers] that competed in the Super Bowl this year, how many explosive players they had on both sides of the ball," Douglas said. "Look, I mean, everybody's trying to get bigger, faster, smarter, tougher. So we need explosive guys. We need explosive dynamic playmakers." "Speed creates pressure and pressure bursts pipes," Douglas told newyorkjets.com's Eric Allen at the NFL Scouting Combine. "When you have one guy that can run by you, you're worried. When you have three guys, that really puts teams in a bind. When you have that, you can have three-point shooters. You don't have to worry about the 12-, 15-play drives. You can throw in a couple one-, two- or three-play drives. Now you're cooking."
  25. I agree most of these guys were there when Gase took over but he has had a big impact on whether they play or continue playing for the team. Eric Decker being replaced by Sanders or Landry being replaced by Albert Wilson. As good as those players were, he let them walk or forced them out to replace with his type of player. If there is one thing about Gase, its his stubbornness to change and that he sticks to a certain type of player/style. I posted this in another topic but there is definitely a trend of guys he either acquired or has seen significant playing time in his offense: Position Name Height Weight 40 10-yard x Demaryius Thomas 6'3" 224 4.38 x Devante Parker 6'2" 209 4.45 1.51 x Cody Latimer 6'2.5" 215 4.44 1.55 x/z Bershad Perriman 6'2" 212 4.26 1.51 x Quincy Enunwa 6'2" 225 4.41 1.57 x/z Josh Malone 6'3" 208 4.40 z Kenny Stills 6'0" 194 4.38 1.54 z Emmanuel Sanders 5'11" 186 4.41 1.49 z Robby Anderson 6'3" 187 4.36 1.59 z Vyncint Smith 6'2" 190 4.36 s Isaiah Ford 6'1" 194 4.61 1.59 s Jakeem Grant 5'6" 165 4.37 1.54 s Jarvis Landry 5'10" 205 4.65 1.73 s Braxton Berrios 5'7" 184 4.44 1.58 s Jamison Crowder 5'7" 185 4.46 s Albert Wilson 5'8" 202 4.43 1.54 s Danny Amendola 5'9" 183 4.58 1.56 It's also not like these 4.45 guys are everywhere. In this years combine only 12 of the 43 that ran the 40 would fit the criteria. And if you are looking for sub 4.41 guy to play the z receiver: 6 out of the 43. Even his most recent slot players he's acquired have been Berrios, Crowder, Wilson, Grant and Amendola. Amendola being the outlier but the others all under 4.47. As for Smith, Berrios, and Malone, they were "bargain basement pickups" with one thing in common: speed. None of them were highly regarded wide receiver prospects. They were middle of the road wide receivers prospects with speed. "As for the range for above-average and elite wide receivers (between 4.42 and 4.57 seconds)" - Cynthia Frelund. It seems like Gase gravitates more toward the 4.42 with rare instances past 4.45.
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