
nyjbuddy
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Not gonna count out any of the draft prospects based on the above data. I was simply looking to better understand the traits of a pro bowl tackle. Not to say that any of this year's prospects won't become a pro bowler simply because they didn't run a sub-5 40 and didn't jump further than 109 inches. But I do believe as time goes on, patterns emerge to help identify the traits of successful NFL players. In this case, there is a pattern among left tackle pro bowlers of the last 10 years. In the next ten years this will change and we may see guys like Becton become the norm. As for Josh Jones, I believe he is the safe pick when it comes to the 2nd tier of linemen. Austin Jackson and Ezra Cleveland have shown less on tape but have the physical traits to match the elite athletes at the NFL level. Both ranked in the top 5 in SPARQ scores. To use a baseball analogy, with Jones your hitting a double. With Jackson and Cleveland your swinging for the fences. They are true boom or bust prospects. It all depends on how the first round plays out. Lets say the Jets decide to go with a receiver in the 1st and tackle in the 2nd. If they select Ceedee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy (the supposed safer picks), they could try to take a gamble on someone like Cleveland or Jackson in the 2nd. If they decide to gamble in the first and select a receiver like Henry Ruggs (doesn't have the production like the other two), I could see them coming back in the 2nd (perhaps having to trading up) for Jones.
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He is a little shorter than the ideal size. He needs to work on his pass pro, especially against speed rushers. But he does an adequate job getting to the second level and sealing off blocks. He would be a late round / UDFA project, practice squad type of player.
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Jets let their number 2 wide receiver walk for the Buccaneers' number 3 wide receiver that played behind two pro-bowlers. Robby played in 91% of snaps while Perriman played in 56%. Robby had more yardage and a history of staying healthy and producing. In 2019, 5 TDs, 48.7 yards per game, 54.2% catch rate. Perriman, a former 1st round pick, showed toward the ending of last season, when given the opportunity, he can step up and play. In 2019 6 TDs, 46.1 yards per game, 52.2% catch rate. No. Player Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 82 Jamison Crowder 122 78 833 10.7 6 41 4.9 52.1 63.9% 6.8 79 10.6 837 6 0 11 Robby Anderson 96 52 779 15 5 92 3.3 48.7 54.2% 8.1 53 14.8 783 5 1 26 Le'Veon Bell 78 66 461 7 1 23 4.4 30.7 84.6% 5.9 311 4 1250 4 1 18 Demaryius Thomas 58 36 433 12 1 47 3.3 39.4 62.1% 7.5 36 12 433 1 0 84 Ryan Griffin 41 34 320 9.4 5 45 2.6 24.6 82.9% 7.8 34 9.4 320 5 0 17 Vyncint Smith 31 17 225 13.2 0 37 1.3 17.3 54.8% 7.3 20 13.9 277 1 1 88 Ty Montgomery 17 13 90 6.9 0 21 0.8 5.6 76.5% 5.3 45 4.3 193 0 0 10 Braxton Berrios 13 6 115 19.2 0 69 0.4 7.2 46.2% 8.8 6 19.2 115 0 1 29 Bilal Powell 12 7 33 4.7 0 9 0.5 2.5 58.3% 2.8 66 4 262 0 0 No. Player Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% Y/Tgt Touch Y/Tch YScm RRTD Fmb 12 Chris Godwin* 121 86 1333 15.5 9 71 6.1 95.2 71.1% 11 87 15.4 1341 9 0 13 Mike Evans* 118 67 1157 17.3 8 67 5.2 89 56.8% 9.8 67 17.3 1157 8 0 19 Breshad Perriman 69 36 645 17.9 6 44 2.6 46.1 52.2% 9.3 38 17.4 661 6 0 84 Cameron Brate 55 36 311 8.6 4 37 2.3 19.4 65.5% 5.7 36 8.6 311 4 0 80 O.J. Howard 53 34 459 13.5 1 33 2.4 32.8 64.2% 8.7 34 13.5 459 1 1 44 Dare Ogunbowale 46 35 286 8.2 0 21 2.2 17.9 76.1% 6.2 46 6.6 303 2 2 27 Ronald Jones 40 31 309 10 0 41 1.9 19.3 77.5% 7.7 203 5.1 1033 6 3 10 Scott Miller 26 13 200 15.4 1 48 1.3 20 50.0% 7.7 15 14.4 216 1 0 17 Justin Watson 26 15 159 10.6 2 17 0.9 9.9 57.7% 6.1 15 10.6 159 2 0 25 Peyton Barber 24 16 115 7.2 1 16 1 7.2 66.7% 4.8 170 3.4 585 7
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Agreed the production is not there and it may never be. Never meant to disrespect Robby but the Jets may have a contributing player already on their roster that sounds like the type of player you want on your team. This is from an interview with Demaryius Thomas talking about Vyncint Smith and their time together in Houston: "He wants to know the how and the why," Thomas said. "That’s super beneficial. When you have someone like him that wants to work? Those are the guys who end up being the greats. They’re the ones who are in this league 10-plus years. We never had a problem with Vyncint. He was reliable, dependable and accountable. I praise him so much because he was always on time. He did everything right. We never had to ask him to do anything. He would work in with the No. 1 offense or scout team. He jumped in and did it the same way. He reminds me of myself. I would do those things." "I couldn’t tell (Gase) enough about him," Thomas said. "I told him how he’s the guy who, when you tell him something, he listens. He then instantly takes it to the field. He has raw talent. He can run, catch, run with the ball in his hands. But he listens. He listens and applies. That’s hard for young guys to do. But with Vyncint, you tell him, he’ll practice it a couple of times, then he does it. I’d been around him most of last year. So I knew how hard he works. I told (Gase) how, when we were in Houston, he ran the most routes out of anyone. Sometimes (Hopkins) would be out, or Fuller. Vyncint would fill in wherever they needed him. He ran everything. Never complained. He just did his job. Kept his head down."
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They also have a very similar player to Robby in Vyncint Smith. Similar measurables, similar catch rate, just needs to get on field a bit more. Smith was really good at getting 1st downs and running the ball. He is a wide receiver going into his 3rd year and could have a boost in production if given the opportunity. He could be a good 5th target for Darnold with deep threat abilities. He did average 15.5 yards per catch in college and showed the ability to get that into the 17/18 range at times. In the last 6 games he had at least 1 catch and in the last 3 games had 3 catches in each game. He got the start in the last 2 games. Smith and Robby both had 9 catches in the last 3 games with Smith out gaining Anderson by 8 yards. By no means has he shown that he can replace Anderson's production but he has shown growth throughout the year and will be entering his third year where receivers tend to breakout. A late round candidate is Quez Watkins. Got the speed, size and production at Southern Miss
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https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/former-miss-hawaii-positive-coronavirus The 25-year-old beauty queen, who was crowned Miss Hawaii in 2015 and later competed in the Miss America pageant, made her plea via a Facebook post on Friday, in which she wrote that she believed she was exposed to the virus during a recent trip to New York City where she said she auditioned for the New York Jets dance team.
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Another late round (6th/7th) or UDFA prospect: Arlington Hambright A little older as he played at Oklahoma State then did his graduate studies at Colorado. But could be a late round project the way that Fant was for Seattle. Check out his pro day results: Height: 6-3 7/8 Weight: 307 lbs Hand size: 9 3/8 Wingspan: 79 5/8 40: 4.95 Vertical: 28.5 Broad Jump: 109 Bench: 29
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So... what's on the agenda for Tomorrow's FA?
nyjbuddy replied to GREENBEAN's topic in NY Jets Forum
Not saying any of these guys can contribute but the Jets have a lot of WRs: Crowder, Enunwa, Bellamy, Doctson, Chesson, Vyncint Smith, Berrios, Malone, Hatcher, Jeff Smith. Not a lot of quality but they must have these guys for a reason other than to fill up the payroll. Sign one FA receiver, draft a couple, and sign 1 or 2 as UDFA. As for RBs, they have Bell, Cannon, Josh Adams, and Dixon. With Bell on the roster, they probably can look to the draft to bring in a cheap option. They should just run Bell as much as possible and groom a replacement for when he is done. -
Becton is interesting too because there has not been a recent left tackle pro bowler of his size. Only Clifton, Whitworth and Villanueva were over 315 pounds. Two of the three right tackles left off the list (Trent Brown and Orlando Brown) both weighed over 345 pounds. Making the pro bowl as a right tackle is pretty amazing as not too many right tackles make the pro bowl.
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After reading this article from a couple years ago: https://www.fieldgulls.com/2018/3/5/17080128/seattle-seahawks-offensive-lineman-40-time-important-nfl-combine-draft-pro-bowl-tyron-trent, I did a little research to see the accuracy of the data as well as where it fits into the 2020 draft. Interestingly, the article mentions George Fant as a candidate that meets their criteria. The TLDR; version of the article: Offensive left tackles with a 40 time <= 4.96 seconds, broad jump > 107 tend to have a high floor when entering the NFL with a high probability of success. In my research, I took the approach of finding a corelation between pro bowlers and their combine metrics. I looked at the last 10 pro bowls and analyzed their combine data. There is in fact a strong corelation between "pro bowl left tackles" and their 40 times and broad jump. Data (3 pro bowlers are left off the list: Lane Johnson, Orlando Brown, Trent Brown, all who were primarily right tackles during their pro bowl selection year): Reg Season Pos Name Draft Round Draft Pick Height Weight 40 time Broad Jump Pro Bowl LT Terron Armstead 3 75 76.750 306 4.71 112 2 LT Joe Staley 1 28 77.875 306 4.78 112 6 LT Trent Williams 1 4 76.625 315 4.81 113 7 LT Taylor Lewan 1 11 79.125 309 4.87 116 3 LT Jermon Bushrod 4 125 76.630 315 4.92 102 2 LT Tyron Smith 1 9 77.000 307 4.93 109 7 LT Jason Peters UDFA 76.000 328 4.93 115 9 LT Joe Thomas 1 3 78.630 311 4.94 110 10 LT Kyle Long 1 20 78.125 313 4.94 107 3 LT Matt Kalil 1 4 78.625 306 4.96 1 LT Duane Brown 1 26 76.125 315 5.03 108 4 LT Eric Fisher 1 1 79.250 306 5.05 116 1 LT Jordan Gross 1 8 76.500 300 5.05 112 3 LT Donald Penn UDFA 76.250 317 5.05 3 LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson 1 4 78.000 312 5.08 107 3 LT Chad Clifton 2 44 77.300 334 5.12 102 2 LT Brandon Albert 1 15 77.625 309 5.17 111 2 LT Russell Okung 1 6 77.250 307 5.17 2 LT Andrew Whitworth 2 55 79.000 334 5.17 112 4 LT Ryan Clady 1 12 78.125 309 5.18 108 4 LT David Bakhtiari 4 109 76.250 299 5.18 101 2 LT Ronnie Stanley 1 6 77.750 312 5.2 1 LT Jake Long 1 1 79.000 313 5.26 102 4 LT Matt Light 2 48 76.800 311 5.3 3 LT Tyson Clabo UDFA 78.900 315 5.45 100 1 LT Laremy Tunsil 1 13 77.000 310 111 1 LT Alejandro Villavueva UDFA 81.000 320 2 About the data: 30 tackles have been selected in the last 10 pro bowls. 27 qualifying tackles (played primarily left tackle during the season). 3 tackles did not run faster than a 5.2 40, 2 tackles did not have sufficient data. 7 ran between 5.10 and 5.21. 15 ran faster than 5.10. 60% (15 of 25) ran a faster than 5.10 40. 40% (10 of 25) ran a fast 4.96 or faster. As for the broad jump, 6 did not have sufficient data, while 5 jumped less than 107. 16 of 21 had broad jumps greater than 107. Of the 27 qualifying pro bowlers, 9 had a 4.96 40 time or faster and greater than 107 broad. The 7 that were selected in the 1st round, have a combined 36 of 46 years as a pro bowlers. If you include the two non-first rounders, Terron Armstead and Jason Peters, you get a combined 47 out of 66. Thats 47 pro bowl selections in 66 possible years in the league. Just as a comparison, 27 offensive linemen (include all linemen not just tackles) would qualify for this list from the past 20 drafts. This is not to say that if a tackle runs faster than 4.96 and has a 107 or greater broad jump, they will be a pro bowler. But of pro bowl left tackles they mostly have fast 40 times and a great broad jump. 2020 draft prospect that fit this criteria? Faster than 4.96 in bold: Name 40 time Broad Jump Tristan Wirfs 4.85 121 Danny Pinter 4.91 110 Ezra Cleveland 4.93 111 Jack Driscoll 5.02 114 Jedrick Wills 5.05 113 Matt Peart 5.06 113 Austin Jackson 5.07 115 Jon Runyan 5.08 107 Cesar Ruiz 5.08 113 Alex Taylor 5.09 116
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Favorite quote about James Burgess by Gregg Williams reflecting on their time together at the Browns: "There's a picture that I have in my office," the DC said. "When we played Jacksonville a couple years ago over there, he had 19 tackles, two sacks, six tackles for loss, two hurries, and his helmet looked like back when I played — it was crushed and broken. This is a young man that plays and gives you everything he can and then, he's smart enough to fit in and we adapt when he's in the game."
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Either re-sign Robby or move on to Dorsett or Perriman Sign both Jenkins and Golden Sign a veteran backup QB
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Overthecap.com usually does a good calculation around the time the offseason ends.
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Good depth signing. Fits the trend of getting athletic linemen. If this trend follows into the draft, the Jets will probably target Wirfs in the first followed by Ezra Cleveland and Austin Jackson as targets in the 2nd tier of OTs. Trade back (if possible) gaining more picks to possibly snag Cesar Ruiz (trade up if needed). O-linemen SPARQ score ranking: 1. Wirfs, 2. Cleveland, 3. Jackson, 4. Ruiz. Possible starting line: LT Fant LG Lewis C Ruiz RG McGovern RT Cleveland / Jackson
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Mock Draft Friday fanspeak 7 rds - Okudah falls to 11!
nyjbuddy replied to 19andOhWait's topic in NFL Draft
How about a combination of both drafts? 11: R1P11 OT JEDRICK WILLS JR. ALABAMA 48: R2P16 WR DENZEL MIMS BAYLOR 68: R3P4 WR CHASE CLAYPOOL NOTRE DAME 79: R3P15 C CESAR RUIZ MICHIGAN 120: R4P14 RB CAM AKERS FLORIDA ST. 158: R5P12 EDGE NICK COE AUBURN 191: R6P12 G SOLOMON KINDLEY GEORGIA -
1 year $8.5M fully guaranteed. Bonus escalators for performance. Over 1000 yards, an extra $1.5M. Double digit TDs, extra $2M. So possibly, a $12M deal but with Robby's past performances, it most likely will be an $8.5M deal. Draft 2 WRs and if they are contributing by the end of the year, they'd be less likely to pay Robby's bonus. If the 2 draft picks don't see the field right away, they have a year to develop behind Robby. If Robby does do well, then offer him a big contract, knowing you got him for 1 year cheap (less than his $15M asking price) and that he is a WR that is capable of being a top receiver in the league.
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Rumors, Leaks, Reports, Whines, in 2020 Free Agency
nyjbuddy replied to jetstream23's topic in NY Jets Forum
Perhaps Gase trying to relive the good ol' days. Trying to bring in Sanders and then re-sign Thomas. That 2014 was a career year for receiving yards for both of them. Getting the band back together. -
Pro Football Reference is a good source. They have draft finder which allows you to filter draft picks by round, which pick they were in that round, the year they were drafted, etc. Sort by CarAV which is their value scale. I did a search (click link to see results) with drafts between 2010-2019, drafted 33 or more in the round and between rounds 5 - 7. A few interesting names: Marshall Newhouse, Ricky Wagner, Kelvin Beachum, Devon Kennard, Malcolm Smith (Super Bowl MVP), Michael Person, Trevor Siemian, Quincy Enunwa, Antonio Allen
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Which of the Jets 22 UFA would I bring back if I were GM?
nyjbuddy replied to Sarge4Tide's topic in NY Jets Forum
Maybe JD is rewarding him by letting him test the free agent market with the possibility of being a starter or primary backup somewhere else. Perhaps the Jets plan on keeping Avery and have Cashman as the primary backup. This would only allow Burgess significant playing time if there were injuries. Whereas he could sign with another team and get more playing time. If no other teams sign him, maybe the Jets offer him a contract heading into camp. -
Which of the Jets 22 UFA would I bring back if I were GM?
nyjbuddy replied to Sarge4Tide's topic in NY Jets Forum
Not that he was high on your list but Maurice Canady was signed by the Cowboys. -
Wasn't Greg Robinson the guy that just got arrested for having 150 pounds of marijuana?
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Rumors, Leaks, Reports, Whines, in 2020 Free Agency
nyjbuddy replied to jetstream23's topic in NY Jets Forum
Out of curiosity, anyone has an accurate estimate on how much cap space the Jets have after the three offensive linemen signings? My estimate is around $25M with Trumaine still on the books. With the new CBA, I am not sure exactly how that would affect the cap but perhaps an extra $10M? So, they are looking at maybe $35M left in cap space? -
Another interesting tidbit from his NFL.com combine profile: One of the strongest players in college football, McGovern has broken weight room records at Mizzou (like a 690-pound squat) and actually tore his pectoral muscle trying to bench 515 pounds.