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Everything posted by nyjbuddy

  1. Cal would be a dark horse. Not the best but would be in the top 10. QB Rodgers, Bartowski RB Lynch, Muncie WR DeSean Jackson, Wesley Walker, Keenan Allen TE Tony G.
  2. Other than his health, shouldn't there also be a concern with his salary demands? He is set to make $14.5M, $12.5M of which is salary. Part of the reason for him sitting out was the lack of guaranteed remaining on his contract. "Entering the final year of his deal, the 31-year-old reportedly is seeking to become one of the league’s highest-paid tackles. Williams is set to make $12.5 million in 2020, but that does not have any guaranteed money left on his contract. And at that figure, Williams’ salary ranks sixth among tackles in 2020. Remember, Williams’ desire for a new deal was a large reason the seven-time Pro Bowler held out last year until the trade deadline, even as he feuded with the Redskins over the handling of a cancerous tumor on his scalp." - https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/2/trent-williams-salary-demands-might-force-redskins/ Signing a multi-year $16M+ contract where there is a large guarantee is a big investment in someone with a history of missing games. He has 2 complete seasons, missing 24 games, during 9 seasons. His last 16 games season was 2013. It may be worth the risk if he can pick up where he left off in 2018, can stay healthy throughout the season and the contract provides an out for the team that signs him after a year or two.
  3. According to wikipedia the cap has gone up by atleast $10M every year for the last 7 years. So not a significant jump from previous years. Sites like overthecap had factored this in when using their calculator tool. Jets still expected to have near $50 million without any significant cuts (i.e. Trumaine, Winters, etc) 2019 $188.2 million 2018 $177.2 million[15] 2017 $167.00 million 2016 $155.27 million[16] 2015 $143.28 million[17] 2014 $133 million[18] 2013 $123 million[19]
  4. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2020-nfl-mock-draft-chargers-move-up-for-tua-tagovailoa-eagles-trade-with-jets-to-pick-ceedee-lamb/ This guy has him mocked going 4th to the Giants. Side note: He also has the Jets trading back with the Eagle to number 21 and selecting Josh Jones.
  5. LT Beachum LG Lewis C Garland RG Haeg RT Vaitai None of these guys would be a significant investment in terms of the cap. They could replace any of them during the draft with a long-term solution. But all could be starters day one and slowly give way to draftees/UDFA either during the year or over the next couple years. Veterans to protect Sam until draftees can take over. Also, rely on Douglas' strength, scouting, to find talent in the draft rather than navigating the free agency market.
  6. I think people tend to forget that it takes a while for offensive lineman to hit their stride in the NFL. On average, it takes about 3 years to begin to perform as an average offensive lineman. There are a few rookies or 2nd year linemen that develop faster, but that is rare and not the norm. Bringing in veteran linemen like Vaitai and/or Beachum will not only allow the Jets to be a little more flexible at 11 but give the draftees time to develop and to play when they are ready. It also will give Darnold the time to develop without having to deal with rookie mistakes.
  7. The first three sound very similar to the way the 49ers built their offense. Number 4 has been replaced to some extent by QBs with designed run plays (i.e. Watson, Tannehill, Taysom Hill) Number 5 requires talented players that can be utilized in multiple ways. With all the injuries this past season, the defense needed to resort to guys with limited experience and scheming to play at their strengths. With guys like Mosley, Adams, and even guys like Anderson on the line, the ability to be game specific will be easier. Gregg Williams talked about this in the beginning of the year, where he was asking players to play multiple positions, which would allow him to have various defensive fronts and schemes. Number 6 is key to implement number 5. Having CBs that can hold their own without safety or linebacker help, frees up those players to move around the formation and create mismatches. Instead of reacting to what the offense is doing, you are forcing the offense to react to what the defense is doing. Rex Ryan and Gregg Williams share that same attacking defense philosophy.
  8. Not sure how Gregg Williams feels about Hewitt but here was an article about Burgess back in Week 15. https://www.newyorkjets.com/news/inside-the-numbers-james-burgess-is-a-fun-guy-to-coach Inside the Numbers: James Burgess Is 'a Fun Guy to Coach' The Jets' defensive accomplishments through the first 15/16ths of this season have been outstanding, considering all the "Next Men Up" who've jumped into and out of the lineup. And if there is a Next Man Up Award this year (there isn't, as far as we know), it could easily go to one of the men in the middle of that defense, LB James Burgess. "I love Burge and how hard he plays," defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has said. "How many times has he been cut? Those are fun guys to coach. I love the fact that we've had a chance to win with those kinds of guys." What is it that Burgess has done since he was signed from the practice squad in late October? The most eye-catching thing is the amount of time he spends making plays at and behind the line of scrimmage. By an unofficial count, he's got 14 tackles for loss/no gain on rushes and receptions. That's 1.5 tackles ahead of undrafted free agent rookie DL Kyle Phillips for the team lead. In fact, Burgess' number ranks up there among the top season totals by Jets defenders this millennium. Here are the 10 times Jets players have reached 14-plus regular-season TFLNG since 2000 (*through 15 games): Player Yr Tkls Player Yr Tkls DL Sheldon Richardson 2016 20 DL Muhammad Wilkerson 2014 14.5 LB Bart Scott 2010 18.5 LB Marvin Jones 2000 14 LB David Harris 2013 17.5 LB Demario Davis 2015 14 DL Damon Harrison 2013 17.5 DL Damon Harrison 2015 14 LB Eric Barton 2004 16 LB James Burgess 2019 14* Among Burgess' seven stops with six teams (he began with Adam Gase's first Miami team in 2016 as a UDFA and returned to the Dolphins late last year), Williams coached him with the Browns in 2017-18. "There's a picture that I have in my office," the DC said. "When we played Jacksonville a couple years ago over there, he had 19 tackles, two sacks, six tackles for loss, two hurries, and his helmet looked like back when I played — it was crushed and broken. This is a young man that plays and gives you everything he can and then, he's smart enough to fit in and we adapt when he's in the game." One final point on Burgess' Jets tenure: He's always in the game on defense. His first game this year was at Jacksonville, when he logged 71 of 74 defensive snaps. Since then, the Jets' D has played 527 plays and so has Burgess. In the last eight games he's played in more scrimmage plays than anyone else on the roster. "Make no bones about it, I love that kid," Williams says. Heading into the final game of the season at Buffalo on Sunday, it's easy to see why.
  9. I believe Hewitt and Worrilow are unrestricted free agents and Burgess is a restricted free agents. So the line-up as of today is Mosley, Williamson, Cashman for the two ILB positions.
  10. My optimism stems from looking at the 49ers more so than the Chiefs. If you look at the 49ers in the past couple of seasons, they have come a long way in such a short time. In Shanahan's first two seasons they were 6-10 and 4-12. His second season, which was supposed to be the turnaround season for them, was lost because of Garoppolo's early season injury. They ranked near the bottom of the league in offense. During the offseason they added a few players to their defense which statistically struggled partly because of their offense. But they also added key players to their offense: Tevin Coleman, was added to the Mostert and Breida rotation. Emmanuel Sanders was added mid year, while also drafting Deebo Samuels. Kittle was the only stable offensive player from the previous year. They didn't do much to their offensive line, which isn't known to be a top talent filled group. Similarly, the Jets have this offseason to make the same types of improvements. Defensively, they will get a few key players back from injury. The defense fared way better with a struggling offense compared to the 2018 49ers. Offensively, they need to improve their offensive line but the 49ers proved you need not have an all-pro line to win; though this is an area they need to improve upon. Second, the skill players might not be on the roster from this past season, similar to that of the 2018 49ers. If they might sign a veteran wideout (perhaps a reunion of Gase and Sanders), plus an early impact rookie wideout (i.e. Deebo Samuels), they already have Crowder and Bell and hopefully a healthy Griffin and Herndon. A healthy Darnold for a full-year (very hopeful) should be able to contend for the division. The 2019 Jets, as bad as they were, look to be in better shape than the 2018 49ers. I am not saying that the 49ers laid a blueprint for the Jets to follow, but a quick turnaround for a franchise can happen quick; Especially when a season is marred by injury. The Jets could be a team that goes from 7-9 to playoff contender next year.
  11. Top 25 WRs by average $ per year: Player Team Age Avg $ / year Julio Jones Falcons 31 $22,000,000 Michael Thomas Saints 27 $19,250,000 Tyreek Hill Chiefs 26 $18,000,000 Odell Beckham Jr. Browns 28 $18,000,000 Mike Evans Buccaneers 27 $16,500,000 DeAndre Hopkins Texans 28 $16,200,000 Brandin Cooks Rams 27 $16,200,000 Adam Thielen Vikings 30 $16,200,000 Sammy Watkins Chiefs 27 $16,000,000 Jarvis Landry Browns 28 $15,100,000 A.J. Green Bengals 32 $15,000,000 Davante Adams Packers 28 $14,500,000 Stefon Diggs Vikings 27 $14,400,000 Allen Robinson Bears 27 $14,000,000 T.Y. Hilton Colts 31 $13,000,000 Alshon Jeffery Eagles 30 $13,000,000 Larry Fitzgerald Cardinals 37 $11,500,000 Keenan Allen Chargers 28 $11,250,000 Tyrell Williams Raiders 28 $11,100,000 Emmanuel Sanders 49ers 33 $11,000,000 Tyler Boyd Bengals 26 $10,750,000 Tyler Lockett Seahawks 28 $10,600,000 Sterling Shepard Giants 26 $10,250,000 DeVante Parker Dolphins 27 $10,166,667 Devin Funchess Colts 26 $10,000,000 Robby Anderson will be 27 in May. So age wise he would compare to Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs and Allen Robinson on the high side of the $13-$15M range. Paid better than Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams and Tyler Boyd. Statistically he compares closer to the bottom of that list. A base salary in the $9M-$11M range is more appropriate than $13M+, with escalators and incentives for 1000+ yards receiving, double digit TDs, pro bowl selection, 70+ catches etc, that could take him into the $12M-$13M range.
  12. During the Houston v Buffalo broadcast (before the 3rd quarter implosion by the Bills), they were mentioning that part of the off-season strategy last year for the Bills was to have veteran leadership at every position group. They had re-signed Alexander to keep that leadership on the defensive side, brought in Gore (drafted Singletary), re-vamped their o-line with veterans while drafting Cody Ford. Some of those guys were not part of the long-term goals but provided much needed leadership in the locker room. They also went out and got Josh Allen some help by signing Beasley and Brown, drafting Knox and Singletary, and adding more talent to their offensive line.
  13. Maybe they promote from within and move Eliot Wolf to GM and hire McCarthy as the HC.
  14. Interested to see Wirfs vs Christian Rector (possible late round DE) and Drake Jackson (247Sports Freshman All-American). Should be able to easily handle both of them but they have very different skillsets to test Wirfs. USC tends to rotate/switch their ends so Wirfs will probably have time to play against both.
  15. I did some of the same analysis as the original post but the number of resources were less. First time I used 11 sites, this time I used only 5. Rather than posting a list, I just wanted to add a few notes (risers and fallers). The top 20 remained mostly the same with a few exceptions: Walker Little and Albert Okwuegbunam are not appearing in as many mock drafts (no longer considered 1st rounders) Derrick Brown has dropped from ADP 7.6 to ADP 18.8 Raekwon Davis has dropped from ADP 15.6 to ADP 20.75 Jaylon Johnson, Collin Johnson, Paddy Fisher, Trey Smith, Nick Coe, Kenny Willekes have all dropped out of the first round conversation A few risers: D'Andre Swift (RB, Georgia), Tristan Wirfs (OT, Iowa), Jordan Love (QB, Utah State), Julian Okwara (EDGE, Notre Dame), Paulson Adebo (CB, Stanford) Tristan Wirfs seems to have replaced Walker Little as the 2nd OT after Andrew Thomas Jerry Jeudy, Laviska Shenault, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs are all set to be first round WRs.
  16. This was from an article over 2 weeks ago but has some good information on AB's contract situation. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-what-happens-if-raiders-try-to-void-antonio-browns-guarantees-in-his-contract/ The Raiders seem to be tiring of the drama surrounding Antonio Brown. General manager Mike Mayock expressed frustration with the mercurial wide receiver missing Sunday's practice because of an ongoing helmet issue during a brief impromptu meeting with the media. He issued an ultimatum to Brown for him to be all in or all out. Brown returned on Monday for a team meeting before the Raiders broke training camp. Brown previously left training camp for several days because of an inability to wear an outdated helmet, the Schutt AiR Advantage that's no longer approved for NFL use, and to continue recovering from a cryotherapy chamber mishap that happened before training camp opened that damaged his feet. Brown had been cleared for practice despite the foot issue. The four-time All-Pro also filed a second grievance on Monday asserting that he wasn't given a full calendar year grace period to find a new helmet. Just over a week ago, an arbitrator denied Brown's request to use his old helmet, which he has worn for his entire NFL career. Whether Brown is actually all in with the Raiders remains to be seen. Brown's contract Whenever there is an issue in a business relationship, a natural tendency is for the parties to examine the contract between them. Let's take a look at Brown's contract. The Raiders gave the Steelers third- and fifth-round picks in the 2019 draft to acquire Brown in March. As a part of the trade, Brown got an upgraded contract. He received an $11.2 million raise over the three remaining years of the four-year, $68 million contract extension he signed with the Steelers in 2017. He is scheduled to make $50.125 million over the three years, with the potential of an additional $4 million through incentives. The adjusted contract has $30.125 million fully guaranteed. The guaranteed money is Brown's $14.625 million 2019 base salary, $14.5 million 2020 base salary and $500,000 workout bonuses in 2019 and 2020. The $1 million of workout bonuses are being treated like signing bonus for salary cap purposes and prorated over the three years due to being fully guaranteed at the signing of the adjusted deal. It is standard for NFL contracts to contain language voiding salary guarantees for a laundry list of reasons. The conditions vary depending on team convention, the attention the agent pays to the language and his/her leverage in negotiations. Brown's contract isn't any different than anybody else's. The default language in Brown's contract that controls the voiding of his guarantee reads as follows: "Notwithstanding this Skill, Injury and Cap Guarantee, Player shall report to Club, practice with Club, play with Club, and honor all terms of the Contract, including all addenda thereto. If at any time Player does not report to Club; does not practice or play with Club; leaves Club without prior written approval (including, but not limited to retirement); does not honor any terms of the Contract (including any addenda thereto); is suspended by the NFL or Club for conduct detrimental, violation of the NFL's Personal Conduct Policy, violation of the NFL Policy on Substances of Abuse, or violation of the NFL Policy on Anabolic Steroids and Related Substances; violates any other agreements between Club and Player; or is injured as a result of a breach of Paragraph 3 of the Contract or as a result of participation in hazardous activities which involve a significant risk of personal injury and are non-football in nature (including but not limited to skydiving, hang gliding, mountain climbing, auto racing, motorcycling, scuba diving, skiing, and any other sports) then Player shall be in default ("Default") and the Skill, Injury and Cap Guarantee shall be null and void and Player shall be only eligible to earn his remaining stated Paragraph 5 salary on a weekly, non-guaranteed basis if Player is on Club's roster for the 2019 League Year and meets all ordinary criteria for earning Paragraph 5 Salary, subject to any applicable fines." This exact language is a part of each salary component that is guaranteed, with a couple of differences. The main differences are "2020 League Year" replacing "2019 League Year" and "Workout Pay" replacing "Paragraph 5 salary" where applicable. The effect of voiding guarantees Brown's actions would seemingly give the Raiders grounds to enforce the voiding of his guarantees. With the guarantees remaining intact, it would be too salary cap prohibitive for the Raiders to release Brown until 2021, when he no longer has financial contract security. For example, Brown's 2019 cap charge would increase by $14.5 million because of the 2020 salary guarantee accelerating onto Oakland's current cap with his release. The Raiders have approximately $17.2 million of 2019 cap space, according to NFLPA calculations. The only 2020 cap charge for Brown would be $666,667 relating to the proration of the workout bonuses. The guarantees have an offset so the Raiders would get cap relief from whatever deal Brown signed to play this season with another team. The Raiders would have much more flexibility with Brown by voiding the guarantees. If released before the start of this regular season, the Raiders' only 2019 cap obligation would be $333,333 of bonus proration since Brown's now unsecured $14.625 million base salary wouldn't be paid. The 2020 cap charge would be likely $166,667, with Brown's $14.5 million 2020 base salary and $2.5 million game day active roster bonuses ($156,250 per game) coming off Oakland's books and a $500,000 cap credit from the unpaid previously guaranteed 2020 workout bonus. Brown's 2019 base salary would become fully guaranteed through the NFL collective bargaining agreement's termination pay provisions with the guarantees voiding provided he was on Oakland's 53-man roster for the season opener against the Broncos on September 9. The Raiders would need to demonstrate that Brown failed to give a good faith effort after a written warning to try to invalidate any termination pay claim. Practically speaking, the impact of voiding the guarantees probably wouldn't potentially come into play until next offseason since the Raiders have been expecting Brown to be their primary weapon in the passing game this season. A subpar performance or continued drama throughout this season would put his roster spot for 2020 in jeopardy. The Raiders' 2020 cap relief would be the same as if released this year. Brown would surely file a grievance to collect the balance of the guarantees if released after the Raiders enforced voiding. This could be a dispute over as much as $29.625 million depending on the timing of Brown's release. The Trent Richardson case Grievances over the voiding of guarantees are a rarity. There was one involving 2012 third-overall pick Trent Richardson relating to less egregious conduct than Brown's. Richardson has been a disappointment since the Colts gave the Browns a 2014 first-round pick for him early in the 2013 season. He was a healthy scratch in the 2014 AFC divisional playoffs and was given a two-game conduct detrimental suspension for missing a walk through the day before the AFC Championship Game without alerting the team beforehand of his absence, which was due to a serious family emergency. The Colts voided the guarantee for Richardson's $3,184,062 2015 base salary because of the suspension. Richardson promptly filed a grievance over the guarantee claiming that his actions didn't qualify as conduct detrimental after the Colts released him in March 2015. The grievance was eventually settled with Richardson receiving $561,893, which equaled three weeks of his 2015 salary. The NFLPA lost a similar challenge in 2013 with cornerback Eric Wright over his $7.75 million 2013 contract guarantee voiding because of his performance enhancing drugs suspension during the 2012 season while with the Buccaneers. Final thoughts Conventional wisdom suggests that Brown's latest grievance is a Hail Mary, which will likely fail. Ideally, Brown would accept a second unfavorable decision so he could focus on having his seventh straight 100-catch season. The Raiders have been exercising restraint and patience with Brown. Highly productive players such as Brown are typically given more leeway than lesser talents. If Mayock is true to his word, the Raiders may be rapidly getting to the point where exercising contractual rights will be more important than pacifying Brown.
  17. The details of the new Ezekiel Elliott contract are now in. First reports cited six new years at $90 million, added on to the already existing two years. Now, there’s more insight into how exactly the reported $50.5 million in guarantees is actually structured. As reported first by ESPN’s Todd Archer, here are the details of the agreement. The deal has just over $28 million in true guarantees, including a $7.5 million signing bonus, and an option bonus worth $13 million in 2020. His first two seasons of base salary are both guaranteed, too. Ezekiel Elliott: 6 New Years, $90M 8-yr, $102.9M total value 2019 Signing Bonus $7.5M 2020 Option Bonus $13M Year Base Salary Total Bonus Cap Hit 2019 $752.137 $1,500,000 $6,339.653 ($4,087,516 from rook deal) 2020 $6.800,000 $4,100,000 $10.9 million 2021 $9,600,000* $4,100,000 $13.7 million 2022 $9,725,000 $4,100,000 $16.5 million 2023 $10,900,000 $4,100,000 $15 million 2024 $10,000,000 $2,600,000 $12.6 million 2025 $15,400,000 2026 $16,600,000 TOTAL $82,452,137 $7,552,137 g’teed $20.5 million $107,039,653 If Elliott is on the Cowboys roster on the 5th day of the 2020 league year, his 2021 salary becomes guaranteed. If Elliott is on the roster on the 5th day of the 2021 league year, his 2022 salary will be fully guaranteed. Those are what I term escape hatches which afford Dallas some protection if things go sideways, either by conduct or by injury. More on that later. Richest running back ever Elliott went into the negotiation looking to surpass the money that Los Angeles gave Todd Gurley prior to 2018. Gurley was in the exact same situation; a fourth-year back and former first-round pick who had one year, plus the team-activated fifth-year option, two years of team control remaining. In total value, fully guaranteed money, total guarantees, average annual value, new money value, contract length, everything except value over the first three years of the deal, Elliott beat out Gurley. In February, prior to free agency and the signing of LeVeon Bell by the New York Jets, I predicted what Elliott’s contract should look like. A little over six months later, things came out almost exactly on par with that projection. https://cowboyswire.usatoday.com/2019/09/05/dallas-cowboys-ezekiel-elliott-contract-extension-breakdown-jerry-jones-todd-gurley-comparisons/
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