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Everything posted by nyjbuddy

  1. I had Jermaine Johnson there but changed in to Travon Walker right before I posted, but forgot to change the school. Both are talented players, but at this point I chose Travon over Johnson. As for the punter, Araiza, it may be a poor selection to take another punter but Mann has been near the bottom of the league for 2 years. The Jets can probably find an upgrade someplace else but Araiza is a pretty good punting prospect with the ability to also kick field goals. He had 39 50 yard punts, 18 of which went over 60 yard punts, 6 of which went over 70 yard punts and 2 that went over 80. He also had a punt that registered as a 79 yard punt but landed in the middle of the end zone which would have been another 80+ yard punt in the air: If he can adjust to the NFL ball and pressure, he could be a real weapon for pinning teams deep, punting from anywhere on the field.
  2. Everyone wants a stud wide receiver but after reading articles and listening to podcast pertaining to the Shanahan style offense (Mike Shanahan’s tree), I am not sure this offense needs a WR1 “prospect”. They need a WR1 but not necessarily a WR1 “prospect”. Looking through the scouting reports of the wide receivers selected by Shanahan disciples (Packers, Rams, 49ers, and Jets), we can see the type of wide receivers they typically draft or acquire to develop within their system. They need to be versatile to play at all alignments, outside/inside, left/right and can be playmakers after the catch. We hear it every time someone from the Shanahan tree gets hired as a head coach or offensive coordinator. We heard it directly from the Jets when asked about Mims’ playing time. Davante Adams, probably the closes to a WR1 coming out of college. He was in GB before LaFleur took over, but he has had some of his best seasons in LaFleur’s offense. His scouting report often highlighted that he was not a number 1 WR, but could be a solid number 2. Quote from Walter football: “Adams may not have the elite speed or size to be a No. 1 receiver, but he should be a solid No. 2.” Cooper Kupp, drafted by the Rams, has shined in McVay’s system. Here is a scouting report from Matt Waldman, “Pre-Draft Grade – 83.9 (Rotational Starter): Executes at a starter level in a role playing to their strengths.” And from Lance Zierlein, “His transition to NFL-level cornerbacks will take time, but he has the ability to become an early No. 3 receiver and eventual starter.” Robert Woods was supposed to be the number 1 in Buffalo, but after his rookie contract they did not resign him, for he did not live up to being the number 1. On March 9, 2017, Bryan Kalbrosky wrote about the Woods signing by the Rams, “Woods is not necessarily going to be a No. 1 receiver for the Rams but is a nice complement to Tavon Austin to in the slot role next season.” Deebo Samuel also did not get the number 1 wide receiver tag when coming out of South Carolina. According to Jon Ledyard of The Draft Network: “I think he’s outstanding after the catch and a good route-runner, but he does project as more of a high-caliber complementary piece in an offense rather than a feature weapon.” Elijah Moore’s scouting report also had mentions of limitations of becoming a number 1 wide receiver, but he had the versatility for the Jets offense. Bleacher Report said of Moore, “Moore primarily lined up in the slot at Ole Miss, but he was featured in the offense and asked to align in spots across the formation based on the play call.” And, “Overall, Moore will be able to contribute right away from the slot and has the upside of being a very good No. 2 option for a good NFL offense, with his path to greater success being dictated by his ability to win on the outside.” The choice of a WR in the second was mainly because I had prioritized o-line and EDGE over WR. If the Jets felt they could find a talented edge or o-line in the 2nd or later, that would be great. But the way I’ve seen mocks going lately, the WRs are getting pushed down while edge players and offensive linemen are being pushed up. If the Jets can grab their choice of lineman and edge in the first, it may surprise them to see a 1st round talent level wide receiver there in the early 2nd; similar to what happened last year with Moore. One or more of John Metchie, Jahan Dotson, Jameson Williams (injury concern) or Chris Olave may be there in the early 2nd. The Cedrick Wilson signing, drafting Metchie and Drummond are all players that can create separation and are yards after the catch type wide receivers. Drummond averaged 9.2 YAC/REC, second to Jameson Williams (9.3). Metchie has 1000 YAC, since 2020. Wilson averaged 6.2 YAC/REC tied for 10th and in the same range as Kupp and Godwin. These are also wide receivers that can line up anywhere in the formation, similar to Moore and Davis, both of whom had experience lining up everywhere in college. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets don’t bring Keelan Cole in for another year as he also fits the profile for a wide receiver in this offense.
  3. The thought behind the many o-line picks is looking towards the future, and specifically 2023. As of today, there is one guaranteed starter under contract (Alijah Vera-Tucker). George Fant and Connor McGovern are both in the last year of their contracts and they have no RG or RT as of today. The hope is Becton comes back and supplants Fant on the left, and they move Fant over to the RT for one year. The Jets move the 1st round o-line pick (Ekwonu/Penning) inside to RG. They both have experience playing guard. Next year the Jets can let Fant walk and push the 1st rounder out to RT. If Becton does not take over the LT position, then the Jets would extend Fant to starting LT money and figure out what to do with Becton. Could they move Becton to the other side, or inside, or trade him? As for McGovern, he may need another contract by the end of the year, but hopefully the Jets can find a younger replacement. Cameron Jurgens is someone that looks to have the athleticism to fit the scheme of a quick, fluid, powerful center. He is undersized for the type of lineman typical of this offense. One year of developing behind McGovern will allow him to training with an NFL weight training staff and understand the playbook. Optimistically, the offensive line in 2023 looks like this: LT: Becton (under contract until 2024) LG: AVT (under contract until 2025) Jurgens (under contract until 2025) RG: Turner / Smith (under contract until 2025) RT: 1st rounder (Ekwonu or Penning) (under contract until 2026) Offensive line built to grow with Zach Wilson for at least the next 2-3 seasons.
  4. Starting Cap - $48.2M Cuts Sheldon Rankins $5.5M Ryan Griffin $3M Greg Van Roten $3.5M Justin Hardee $2M Post cuts cap space - $62.2M Resign Eddy Pineiro K 2 year / $2M - $1M Cap Hit Tim Ward DE 1 yr / $920k - 920K Cap Hit Mike White QB 1 yr / $1M - $1M Cap hit Total - $2.9M Cap at start of free agency: $59.3 Trai Turner G age (at start of season): 29 3 year / $18.75M - $6.25M per year A couple years removed from his pro bowl years, this past year in Pittsburgh was a good bounce back year for him. He played this past year on a prove-it deal and he played pretty well coming back from injury. Alternative FA: Austin Corbett, LAR age: 26. Perhaps a little more expensive than Turner, coming off of the Super Bowl win. DJ Reed CB age: 25 3 year / $24M - $8M per year Undersized and may not make it to free agency, but originally a 49er that spent the last 2 years on the Seahawks. He is a young corner that is quietly becoming a very good defender. Alternative FA: Rasul Douglas, GB Age: 26 Cedrick Wilson WR age: 26 2 year / $13M - 6.5M per year Versatile to play inside and outside, YAC/R ranked 10th Alternative FA: Braxton Berrios, though maybe more expensive David Njoku TE age: 26 3 year / $21M - $7M per year Versatile TE. YAC/R ranked 2nd. 1 year removed from being the highest graded blocking tight end by PFF. Alternative FA: Mo Alie-Cox Raheem Mostert RB age: 30 1 year / $2M - $2M per year Knows the system, coming off an injury and will be 30 soon. Not ideal for a veteran RB, but if he is able to get back healthy, would be a solid option to run behind Carter. Alternative FA: Darrel Williams, KC age: 27 DJ Jones DT age: 27 3 year / $27M - $9M per year 49er coming off a really good year, reunites with Saleh. Got better every year and hitting his prime. Alternative FA: Foley Fatukasi, though maybe more expensive Arden Key EDGE age: 26 2 year / $9M - 4.5M per year Another 49er coming off a good year. It seems like Key may have finally put it altogether. Coming off a 6.5 sack year in limited playing time, he was one of the most efficient edge rushers this past year. With an expanded role, perhaps a little more production. Alternative FA: Rasheem Green, SEA age: 25 $ 43.25M - cost $ 16.05M - remaining approximately $13.1M needed to sign rookies Draft If Thibodeaux were to fall to 4 ... #4 Kayvon Thibodeaux - EDGE - Oregon #10 Trevor Penning - OL - Northern Iowa If not... #4 Ikem Ekwonu - OL - NC State #10 Travon Walker - EDGE - Florida State #35 John Metchie - WR - Alabama #38 Jaquan Brisker - S - Penn State #69 Jeremy Ruckert - TE - Ohio State #110 Lecitus Smith - G - Virginia Tech #116 Cameron Jurgens - C - Nebraska #146 Dontario Drummond - WR - Ole Miss #163 Matt Araiza - P - San Diego State $2.95M under the cap If they need to free up more cap space, they could attempt to restructure contracts: CJ Mosley, Carl Lawson, etc Post-draft Trade Denzel Mims for a 2023 pick Cut Braden Mann QB: Zach Wilson RB: Carter, Mostert WR: Moore, Davis, Cedrick Wilson, Metchie, Drummond TE: Njoku, Ruckert OL: Fant, Becton, Ekwonu/Penning, Vera-Tucker, McGovern, Turner, Jurgens, Smith DL: Lawson, Quinnen Williams, Franklin-Myers, Thibodeaux/Johnson, Jones, Key LB: Mosley, Quincy Williams, Nasirildeen, Phillips, Hamilcar CB: Hall, Echols, Carter, Reed S: Davis, Brisker K: Pineiro P: Araiza
  5. Jon Embree was let go by the 49ers earlier this week. He was the Assistant Head Coach and Tight Ends coach. He had a hand in developing Kittle, and Tony Gonzalez a while back. He was also an assistant under both Shanahans (Mike and Kyle) so there is familiarity with the system. Maybe there is an opportunity to join his son on the Jets coaching staff? He would bring a veteran coaching presence that would be very valuable for the Jets coaching staff. With Cavanaugh leaving, what coach should the Jets bring in to help with the offense / Wilson? Or are they set?
  6. Trade Crowder for Lattimore? Crowder may not be in the long terms plans for the Jets, but gives the Saints a one year rental, at the very least. He could do well in that offense while Thomas is out. Also opens up more opportunities for the younger wide receivers. Lattimore has been talked about on here as a possible trade target back in January with mixed opinions. He may be on the decline but may just need a change of scenery. Lattimore is still young (25) and the Saints just reworked his contract, 1 year with voidable future years, but setup for long term (no specifics set yet). Both have basically 1 year contracts. Not sure if picks would also be involved but if Lattimore can get back on track he could be a solid CB for at least the next three to four years.
  7. I'm not sure Saleh is totally committed to the Seattle style of defense. The foundation of the defense may be what he ran in Seattle, but he has made changes and continues to make changes. Over the years in SF, his defense changed according to their personnel and what worked for them. This came from a write-up from pff in 2019: "One of the biggest changes has been going from running cover-3 almost on over half their snaps last year to only around a third this season." Here is an article that talks about the changes over three years in SF: https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/how-the-49ers-defense-will-change-in-2020 Tony Oden followed Saleh over to the Jets and is their current cornerbacks coach. Jeff Ulbrich's defenses have also played less zone (around league average) when he was in Atlanta. "I’m not going to be handling play calling duties on defense, got the utmost respect and confidence in Jeff Ulbrich to be able to do that" - Saleh. Saleh's strategy has been to change the defense to do what works.
  8. This is a possibilty with the connection between Douglas and Foles. Possibly a 2022 7th round pick that escalates to a 6th if he plays more than a certain amount, which should be unlikely. I believe it would be a post-June 1 trade to benefit the Bears. $4M in 2021 and $8M in 2022. Only $1M of that 2022 is guarunteed, so they could cut him in 2022 but $8M for a veteran like him is reasonable especially with the starting QB on his rookie contract. Or they could wait until he is cut. Not sure how many teams need a veteran backup QB.
  9. Still a lot of talent out there. Good special teamers and depth.
  10. Hoping Ben Mason is there at 143 since Elerson Smith just got selected
  11. Jacob Harris WR/TE. Very raw, only 220 but athletic and very productive in limited time. Special teamer that may take a couple years to develop.
  12. RB Chris Evans RB Michael Carter FB Ben Mason OT Tommy Doyle OT Landon Young OT Dan Moore Jr. OG Sedarius Hutcherson OG Jared Hocker EDGE Quincy Roche EDGE Elerson Smith EDGE Janarius Robinson LB Jabril Cox LB Dylan Moses CB Marco Wilson
  13. Jarrett Patterson - RB - Buffalo
  14. Trade 34 to the Eagles for Ertz and the 37, then select OL Teven Jenkins, OL Jalen Mayfield, OL Creed Humphrey, RB Williams or WR Elijah Moore.
  15. I agree they probably didn't need to trade up so high. I think the 49ers traded up to 3 after they saw his pro day. Since January, Lance has been considered a top 10 pick and eventually rose to top 7 (https://www.nflmockdraftdatabase.com/players/2021/trey-lance). They probably could have traded up to around 7, as they would have needed to get in front of Carolina since the Darnold trade happened later. But with QBs getting pushed up toward draft time, getting into the top 5 was probably their best bet. With Garappolo though, there is just a limitation in his abilities similar to the limitation with Alex Smith in KC. So even with a healthy Jimmy G, the 49ers probably want to move to a more explosive and dynamic offense. Lance allows them to do that. Also, Garappolo's best year (2019) is slightly above the NFL average in terms of production. If you can get a similar level of passing production from Lance, basically league average, and add to it 200-300 rushing yards and a 3-4 rushing TDs, thats top 10 production from the QB. Also, I agree they probably need another veteran backup in case Garappolo gets injured but they also don't want a backup that hinders Lance's development by taking away practice snaps.
  16. Not sure the 49ers' pick of Trey Lance was that bad. Sure they may not have needed to get to 3 but if that was their guy, they did what they needed to get him. Same thing the Jets did by trading up from 23 to 14, but the 49ers did it for a QB, in which the cost is understandable. Listening to several podcast this morning, some have noted that this could be similar to the Alex Smith/Pat Mahomes/KC situation with Garappolo playing out his contract until Lance is ready. If you look back at grades and reviews of the Mahomes pick back in 2017, there was some praise but a lot of similar criticism for the KC move/pick. Steven Ruiz - "Calling Mahomes a project is a major understatement. He’s nowhere near ready to play in the NFL. And, honestly, he may never be. Between his inconsistent accuracy due to poor mechanics, his tendency to bail from clean pockets and his lack of field vision, he’s going to leave as many big plays on the field as he creates. This was a risky pick." Dan Kadar (gave KC a C) - "My grade on what Kansas City did in this draft is due to my opinion that they gave up way too much to trade up for quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the first round. Again, if he works out, I look dumb and it doesn’t matter. But to give up pick Nos. 27 and 91 this year and a first-round pick in 2018 is a lot." Vinny Iyer (gave KC a C-) - "Trading up for Mahomes, a big-armed gunslinger who really doesn’t mesh with the true mentality as Alex Smith’s successor, set up a bad tone in this draft.” I am not saying Trey Lance will be another Mahomes, but he is a player that has the potential to be a great player and Garappolo has limitations that prevent the 49ers from really having an explosive offense. Lance allows the 49ers to open up the offense a bit more and enables them to run more RPO and more misdirection. Imagine a 49ers offense that builds upon what they have now (high efficiency passing) with a bit of Baltimore Raven's (Lamar Jackson/J .K. Dobbins/Gus Edwards) highly efficient running game.
  17. Or Douglas does what he did in the 2nd round last year. With Jenkins on the board, he trades down a couple spots and Jenkins is still available.
  18. #2 Zach Wilson #23 Jaelan Phillips #34 Teven Jenkins
  19. Alijah Vera-Tucker if available. If AVT not available: Jaelan Phillips or Jayson Oweh
  20. Who are your favorite draft prospects for 2021? RB Chris Evans FB Ben Mason WR Dwayne Eskridge WR Nico Collins WR Simi Fehoko WR Terrace Marshall TE Hunter Long TE Pat Freiermuth C Creed Humphrey OT Liam Eichenberg OT Tommy Doyle OT Landon Young OT Dan Moore Jr. OG Sedarius Hutcherson OG Jared Hocker EDGE Ronnie Perkins EDGE Quincy Roche EDGE Joe Tryon EDGE Elerson Smith EDGE Janarius Robinson EDGE Jaelan Phillips LB Baron Browning CB Jaycee Horn CB Paulson Adebo CB Marco Wilson CB Brandon Stephens
  21. I hope OL at 23 is the pick but would Douglas pass on a premium position pick at EDGE or CB if one of the top players dropped? That fifth year option is huge for those positions, more so than a guard or center. I could see them going EDGE at 23 and signing Sherman post-draft. Sherman may be a back-up plan if they don't draft a CB in the early rounds that they see as an immediate starter. Also, do rookie offensive players help the development of a rookie QB? The Jets seemed to have brought in skill position veterans (Davis, Cole, Coleman) that can help a rookie QB's development. Supplanting those veterans with rookies may hinder the QB's development? And vice versa?
  22. This is a possibility. What if the exact opposite happens, where Darnold gets injured, highly likely given his past three seasons, and the draft pick plays lights out? Darnold walks away and gets no pick in return. Or what if Darnold can't beat out the draft pick? The return for Darnold now would garner another starting caliber prospect. Signing someone like Alex Smith, who has proven he can win, more so than Darnold, would be a more ideal backup if they are worried about winning this year. Smith also has more experience in the Shanahan offense and has shown to be a great locker room leader, especially with how he helped mentor Mahomes. If they feel Darnold is able to compete for the starting job, then they should not draft the QB at 2 to begin with. Darnold and a 5th/6th round comp pick or Smith and a starting IOL/CB/EDGE?
  23. If the Jets cannot trade Darnold this year, the free agency market for him next may not garner anything close to a 3rd round compensatory pick. He would need to sign a $15M+ per year deal. As a comparison Mariota's 2 year deal $17M with the Raiders, would have resulted in a 6th round comp pick for the Titans. That could be the same type of contract Darnold would sign. If a team is willing to sign him to a $15M+ contract next offseason, what would teams be willing to give up for Darnold at $10M this year and $19M next (exercise 5th year option)? By trading for Darnold, the team that gets him would not have to fight for his rights next offseason. It comes down to how much do teams value Darnold? Is he worth trading away for a 1st/2nd or do you take your chances and hope he signs a $15M+ contract? More likely he will sign something that will garner a 5th or 6th round pick. An alternative strategy that has been mentioned is taking a QB at 2, trading Darnold and signing someone like Nick Mullens, Alex Smith or CJ Beathard. You get a 1 year bridge QB that knows the system and can mentor the number 2 pick, you maximize the value you get from Darnold (a 1st/2nd over a 5th/6th) and you won't have any locker room loyalty issues.
  24. Knowing he was building for the future, Douglas took more developmental prospects with more future upside, rather than immediate impact players. Players develop during practice more so than during games. Game experience is valueable and cannot be replaced but they spend way more time during practice developing these players. 4 - 5 hours a day, 5 days a week, for almost 25 weeks of film study, walk-thrus, weight training, meetings and on field drills outweighs the approximate 30 minutes of playing time each game, 16 times a year. Getting on the field in year one is not as valueable as making sure they are building the right habits and developing the right process through out the season. That is better for sustained success in the NFL, rather than throwing a rookie into the mix and forcing them to sink or swim.
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