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jNYC1

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Posts posted by jNYC1

  1. Last year we had a weak defensive roster… and top players and/or expected contributors got injured.  

    Having said that, the current defensive scheme relies on talent to be successful.  The Gregg Williams defense relied on out scheming offenses and variability to get more out of lesser talent…

    Time will tell if the Jets current defense can get it done.  There were very similar complaints in San Fran in Saleh’s first couple of years as DC.  And lingering complaints that the D was susceptible to giving up big runs - even when the D was on the rise.

    I think the defense will be fine as long as the offense can move the ball consistently and put up points.

    • Upvote 2
  2. Coverage downfield was usually decent last year and/or at least it didn’t feel like we were getting killed over the top.

    It turns out we couldn’t stop the quick passing game, or screens.  Hoping the secondary (and LBs) rally better, take better angles and miss fewer tackles.

    I’m guessing a lot of teams will focus on quick game vs the Jets since our d-line aggressively gets up the field.  Quick game neutralizes the pass rush and fits the skill sets of QBs like Tia and Mac.  To make progress in the division, defending the quick game will be key.

    Ironically, our defense may not see a consistent top notch quick game in practice since that’s an area of opportunity for the Jets offense.

    On a positive note, complimentary pass rush and secondary ball skills/ competence should be improved in the downfield pass game, perhaps allowing for better success defending the shorter stuff… put simply we shouldn’t have to protect our secondary as much this year.

     

  3. Low expectations are the key to happiness!

    Hope, however, is a powerful drug!

    Love what JD has done; love Saleh’s leadership; love the players and optimism in the building.

    Hinges on Zach, so hoping he takes the leap… and over indexing on any positive signs that I can latch onto…

    My expectations are still low (6-7 wins), but my hopes are high (playoffs)!

     

    • Upvote 1
  4. 7 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    Plus there was a bit of a media circus and mess of a front office in Houston, to boot.

    All that, and he still completed 67 % of his throws, threw only 10 INTs and averaged 6.8 YPA.  Not bad at all, rook.

    Davis Mills numbers were pretty amazing considering the lack of weapons and what a dumpster fire the Texans were.  If he put up those numbers in NY, many fans would be penciling him in as a Top 15 QB in 2022. 

    What's fascinating is that he actually has an amazing "pocket passer" pedigree - ranked near top coming out of HS, and ticks all the boxes in terms of size, arm talent, ability to make all the throw, reading defenses.  Injuries and the drop in the market valuation for pocket passers (I dont think there is anything elite about his athletic ability) made him a 2nd round pick.

    I think he has a chance to be better than Mac!

    • Upvote 3
  5. 50 minutes ago, JoeWillieWhiteShoesHOF said:

    Wilson has better physical metrics than all three and is smarter than all three combined.

    The jury is out.  Give him a chance.

    Athletic traits may be objectively better...

    Book smarts may be better... hard to prove.

    Mental processing... which is absolutely critical and often most important... who knows. 

    The speed of processing that is required to play NFL QB is absurd.  The QBs that can pick a defense apart methodically and consistently, usually are the ones who can consistently process quickly and get the ball to the open guy quickly and accurately - all in about 2 and a half seconds (on average).  Many of the elite can also do it when the play breaks down.  I do think that speed of processing is hard to predict and assess.

    Speed of processing...at a competent level...is something that we haven't seen many Jet's QBs master.  It is what I want most for Zach to master.

    Of course, we will have limited data points on this topic until the season starts, and overreact to any of the limited data points that become available. 

    • Upvote 3
  6. 6 hours ago, T0mShane said:

    I thought it was interesting that Saleh’s explanation for why they’re only relying on Calabrese to help Zach this season is because they felt like there were “too many voices” in the QB room, and they wanted to streamline it. In a way, it makes sense, but it just kinda reinforces that they don’t really know what they’re doing in terms of developing a young QB. 

    IMHO - Zach was playing soo poorly last year that they had to figure out who might be able to break through to him.  Hence they hired John Beck, and wound up with too many voices (compounded by adjustments that they had to make after the passing of Knapp over the summer). 

    It was a necessary step (to add voices) since Zach was not doing anything well.

    I don't look at it as the coaching staff not knowing what they are doing.  They had a plan and expected Zach to pick-up the offense given his smarts and work ethic.  When he didn't, the coaching staff asked themselves - what else can we do to get results...  I think we all saw the kid holding the ball too long (not hitting his reads on time), and struggling with mechanics/accuracy.

    I get the feeling that they are still looking for answers to help simplify things for Zach so he plays well.  It feels more like a Zach specific issue since the system has seen jags be able to come in and put up production (remember those back-ups in San Fran when Garrapolo was out a couple of years ago).  LaFleur even went to great lengths to describe how they are working to continue to simplify the processing for Zach.

    Side note - we had our own version of a jag having success with Mike White - unfortunately it felt like his arm talent limitations were also exposed once teams realized he couldn't consistently threaten downfield or in man coverage down the field. 

    Saleh indicates reps have been helpful in getting Zach comfortable.  I hope he is able to get enough reps this summer (combined with reps from last year) for Zach to trust the system and himself.  If his average time to throw is above 3 seconds this year again, in this system, we are going to be complaining about the offensive line and the lack of production of the skill positions... instead of focusing on the root cause (QB processing - trusting the system and distributing balls to playmakers on time and on target). 

    • Like 1
  7. 5 hours ago, johnnysd said:

    I am very happy you can separate them. I will admit my analysis is not always 100% objective but I am not completely blind   

    In terms iof QBs I just believe you choose one be it vet or rookie and then 100% commit to that guy until it is clear he is not the guy.

    In terms of repeating the past, I don't think we are. I think there are a few key distinctions. First and biggest is that unlike the others we are 100% committed to Zach. We neutered Samchez, and surrounded Sam and Geno with squadouche. Like nothing. We have surrounded Zach with more this off-season and last season with more than I could even remotely imagine. Outside of Zach we might be close to Top 10 in offensive talent and among the most balanced.

    Second, subjectively I just think Zach is way more talented than the others. Release speed is I think maybe the most overlooked trait and his release is up there with the very best.

    Third, he is in the same system and a great fit for h8m as well.

    Fourth, people say they are excuses bur thete were a lot if weird factors that diminished his performance. He almost never had his starters. LaFleur went to the booth in the White game. LaFleur spent 5 games forcing run run pass which us crippling to a rookie QB. He had the highest drop percentage. Something like 9 of his completions were tackled at the 1. Just slight differences that could have changed the statistical perspective. He still would be bad but nothing like his stats would suggest.

    Just opinion but fifth he us the smartest and hardest working of the rookies.

    Seventh, it us interesting  to note that we have never really had an offense that was sort if veteran ready. We do now. Zach has everything he needs to perform and I think he will

     

     

    Agree with all of the points.  It also speaks to an improved plan from the organization (coaching and GM),

    Given the above, this season should provide enough data to determine if we ride with Zach into year 3... for all of the reasons for optimism outlined.

    A bottom 10 QB season from Zach, and the franchise should be putting the contingency plan in place in year 3.  I think many fans will see a jump from be 31 or 32nd QB in the league to the 22nd ranked QB as progress.  It is more likely a high probability indicator that Zach will not be a FQB.

  8. 6 hours ago, Hal N of Provo said:

    So you pick the biggest outlier you can find and want to hold Zach to that standard?

    Every great person or athlete has detractors.   People bag on every QB.  Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, all of them. 

    Holding Zach to the standard of potential FQB is why he was drafted #2 overall.  When you look at the QBs that are Top 12-15 in the league, they had better rookie seasons than Zach, and strong second years (excluding the real biggest outlier - Josh Allen).

    A strong second year is the expectation that fans should be comfortable with... Its interesting that most fans that are most bullish on Zach, happen to have the lowest expectations for Zach in year 2.

    If Zach is good enough to have haters like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers... that is a dream come true.

    • Upvote 1
  9. 1 hour ago, thebuzzardman said:

    Damn. This Zach guy played like a rookie!

    He definitely played like a rookie.  Unfortunately, he played like a bad rookie...

    I think it will get better but he played poorly as rookie QB (several of the touted rookie QBs had abysmal seasons so he's not alone...)

    Reminds me of Darnold, Rosen, Baker.  Baker played the best but Darnold and Rosen played poorly as Top 15 picks. 

    The tough thing is that in the last 10 years, most rookie QB starters who turned out to be FQBs or Average QBs, actually played better as rookies than Darnold or Zach... Josh Allen is the one exception... (and potentially Goff).  Prescott, Watson, Herbert, Burrow (terrible line, no Chase), Murray (terrible AZ team), Newton, Luck...

     

  10. I’ll add that I believe Zach will be much more accurate in 2022.

    Drops do not explain Zach’s poor completion percentage and poor performance in 2021.  

    Obviously drops didn’t help, but when drops are accounted for, Zach still had one of lowest completion percentages in the league.

    Drops narrative is overblown but will be great if we return to average or better in this category.

     

    • Upvote 1
  11. Just checked PFF adjusted completion percentage metric. 

    • Zach ranked 35th out of 39 QBs (of QBs that had at least 20% of dropbacks)
    • Zach ranked 30th out of 30 QBs (of QBs that had at least 50% of dropbacks)

    For reference:

    Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors outside of the quarterback's control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw

    After accounting for drops (and other factors), Zach was still near the bottom in adjusted completion percentage.

    • Upvote 3
    • Post of the Week 1
  12. 2 hours ago, Larz said:

    To give a frame of reference, the Jets attempted 603 passes in 2021.

    We completed 357.  For a team Comp. % of 59.2%.

    Had the Jets had the average # of drops for 2021, our comp. % would have been 60.0%.

    Completely agree.  IMHO - The drops narrative is over blown… to provide some with comfort that Zach actually played better than he actually did in 2021, and his teammates let him down.

    More often, Zach let his skill positions down.  The Elijah stats are a great example…. Even when adjusting for drops, Zach completion percentage was putrid.

    • Upvote 1
  13. 47 minutes ago, Warfish said:

    https://scores.nbcsports.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

    Dropped Passes by Team.

    Jets were tied for 4th worst, with 25 total.

    Max was 33 (Chargers).  Fewest was 9 (Seahawks).

    Avg. for all NFL teams was 19.6 drops.

    The variance for the Jets QB's (Zach, White and Flacco) was 5.4 more drops than League Average over the 17 game season.

    To give a frame of reference, the Jets attempted 603 passes in 2021.

    We completed 357.  For a team Comp. % of 59.2%.

    Had the Jets had the average # of drops for 2021, our Comp. % would have been 60.0%.

     

     

    Context!!

    Of course many will argue that those drops prevented the offense from continuing possessions… which if continued, would have allowed the QB to complete more passes with a higher completion percentage than they did in the rest of a season’s worth of sample size (ie total passes completed).

    We had “way” more drops than average but it’s hard to imagine Zach’s completion percentage or expected completion percentage being dramatically different.

  14. 8 minutes ago, bitonti said:

    i like that he has a live arm 

    that's about all i like

    his footwork his garbage, his ability to read a defense undetermined. his ball placement is overrated (not as accurate as his reputation). he runs backward under pressure. He's not durable (missed a month last year)

    everyone's so focused on getting him all the weaponz and linemen and everything he needs to be comfortable 

    meanwhile we all missed the fact that 2 overall pick doesn't need everything to be perfect

    that's Trent Dilfer "manager" type talk. that's Sanchito talk. 

    Zach Wilson should be making everyone around him better. He should have this team believing they can win a game, even down 20 points at half time.

    That's what a franchise QB does. Zach wilson received the biggest signing bonus in franchise history last year. But he needs everything to be just right 

    the Jets drafted a guy they hope becomes a franchise QB and we'll be lucky if he makes it to manager. 

    I think Zach still has a shot to be a FQB.  I’d argue the expectations need to be aligned with that.  

    No one should be satisfied if he is a game manager this year… just because he was soo bad as a rookie that it would be a big improvement. 

    Joe Burrow was a FQB his rookie year playing behind a crap o-line and without Chase.  We need to see that from Wilson in year 2 surrounded by strong talent. 

    • Upvote 1
  15. I think it's important for Zach to play like MOST FQB's play in their second season.  It seems like there are still low expectations for Zach heading into this season (both from the media and many fans.)

    It seems that some fans would be comfortable with a Josh Allen type 2nd season.  The media seems to discount the Jets in 2022 based on a lack of confidence that Zach reaches FQB levels (as evidenced by win total projections and level of concern about strength of schedule.)

    I want Dak/Herbert/Murray/Mahomes/Jackson/Burrow/Goff*/ Wentz* level production from Zach in second year.  Most FQBs show it in a big way in their second season.  Most of the young guns are doing it in their second year.  Even Goff and Wentz who haven't quite proven themselves FQBs did it. 

    In the past 10 years, its only the non-FQBs that didn't ascend in year 2 - with Josh Allen being the one exception...

    • Upvote 1
  16. 3 hours ago, Warfish said:

    Ah, ok, I see now, thank you.

    I support the existence of Unions, even if I'd never join another one personally.  In my experience Unions are more corrupt than then management they oppose, and serve mostly to line the pockets of Union leadership, fund that leaderships political friends, and protect bad union members more than truly serving the rank and file, but your own personal mileage may vary.

    I do not generally support Unions protesting or organizing on their employers time (i.e. during the time the employees are being paid to work).  If the cause of labor organization is important, find the time on your own time to organize.  

    If "Union activity time" is negotiated in their agreement(s) with Management, then that's fine of course.

    I'd also say this is a very different situation that Kap, as a Unions "protest" is likely directly against their employer.  More like a work-stoppage/strike than a "protest" of some social ill.  Labor v. Management is a very different beast than socio-political "protest".

    That's not the case with Kap, Kap is not protesting the NFL as his management from a Union standpoint, he's is using his employers time/stage without permission to protest a social ill.  I happen to agree with his cause, just not his methodology.  He has/had a loud enough microphone on his own, he had no need to involve his employer on their time.

    If a Union wanted to "protest" some social ill, unrelated to their employer, they too should do it on their own time, not their employers time.

    How do you feel about “companies” protesting -  on the company’s time - and using “company” resources by raising PACs, lobbying, and making massive contributions to not only protest things the company doesn’t like or want, but to effectively “buy” politicians?

    • Upvote 1
  17. 22 minutes ago, Dunnie said:

    I've been saying all offseason the OL still needed work and got lambasted for it by the PFF stat crowd.

    Zach took too many sacks.  Nania has a good analysis.

    A lot of sacks we’re on Zach holding the ball too long or not taking outlets.  We vilified GVR for suggesting it in public but it was a fact.

    White, Flacco, and Josh Johnson didn’t take sacks anywhere close to the rate that Zach did.  

    • Upvote 2
  18. Connor Hughes is a tough listen. I sometimes can't make it through the first 10 minutes of his random personal stories...  He strikes me as self-absorbed.  It doesn't help that he doesn't seem particularly knowledgeable about football, or interested in doing his job well.  He does seem excited to give his "educated opinion/narrative" but that has proven to be unreliable. 

    IMHO - DJ is the best beat reporter currently... or at the least the most objective and entertaining.

    • Upvote 1
    • Post of the Week 1
  19. I didn't notice the cursing... I was enjoying the Zach positivity too much.  I'm happy to consume the Zach kool aid since I'm still anxious about how well Zach will do.

    Simms does watch film so it is somewhat encouraging to see him doubling down on his belief in Zach.  Many of his takes echoed are familiar...late season improvement with makeshift weapons/line.  The interesting thing Simms mentioned was that Zach was expected to do more in the scheme... and Zach had success making some tougher reads/throws later in the season. 

    • Upvote 3
  20. FWIW - Regarding accuracy - Zach looked great in training camp and preseason last year - with the exception of one day. 

    Expect to see the same this year.  The hope is when the real games start his completion percentage, and on target throws are average or above league average.  They should be with all of the easy throws in this system.

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