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Everything posted by jNYC1

  1. What can fans learn from OTA's... not much! I guessing the players learn a lot, and the coaches get good data points. Training camp is a slightly different story. - General health (who is able to participate) - How players look in their uniforms - General anecdotal observations (often meaningless) on athleticism. IE zip on passes, burst, looks explosive - Player press availability (best part - but also mostly irrelevant) With that said, its basically a fun teaser for training camp and the season.
  2. I'm guessing we were probably ranked in the same ballpark last year... bottom 5 team. I'm guessing many were upset at that time since we just drafted Zach, AVT, and Elijah and had a promising free agency. The national media was right last year. The national media, however, can't tell that we've reached a tipping point. - Second year in a system - Salary cap fully utilized on players we expect to play (no dead money) - A team that has consistently invested in premium positions, and building a complete offense - A team with a solid mix of veterans and talented young players, along with solid depth - A team of hard workers, with talent, speed, and athletic traits - A team that never quit - A locker room that is positive, cohesive, and supportive - A team that has bought in So with that said, 31 sounds about right!
  3. I do think the Jets have a more talented team overall team. Having said that, the Pats are tough to beat... for one reason. The Pats can put the best offenses, best offensive play callers, and best QBs in a blender, and spit them back out...
  4. Agree - not a big deal in the grand scheme of things - and not an indictment of the entire Douglas regime. A bad fourth round pick though (poor evaluation, poor value). Preferred at the time that the pick be used as another dart throw on a position need...that probably would have also missed... Not the end of the world. Non premium draft picks are not usually game changers or franchise altering picks. I do think Douglas was influenced by Gase, as it didn't seem consistent with the Douglas master plan.
  5. Whatever happened to rooting fanatically for players to have success… without discarding players before the season even starts… or withholding support. Plenty of time to be proven right or wrong… on predictions/ projections. I understand skepticism - and the specific concerns around players. Every year athletes have to “prove it”. Not to fans, but to their employers and the rest of the league. We can discuss concerns and “data points”, but given the choice, I’ll also hope for the best… and try to be respectful of the players on our team. (As a long time fan I might even subconsciously expect the worse, and wrestle with that negativity) I get it… we want results but it can be tiring to think of all the things we need to see and all the things that need to be proven. Until we start winning it can be applied to everyone and everything… I’ll believe Becton is a good tackle when I see it. He has to prove it to me. I’ll believe Zach is a Franchise QB when I see it. He has to prove it to me. I’ll believe Mims is a capable WR when I see it. He has to prove it to me. I’ll believe Sauce is a #1 CB when I see it. He has to prove it to me. I’ll believe Wilson is a game changing WR when I see it. He has to prove it to me. Etc…
  6. All this Becton slander… smh. All the tough talk from non athletes… about recovering from a serious injury. The only way to move forward… Is to start dislocating some knee caps, maybe with a baseball bat, to prove how easy it is to recover.
  7. GVR would like a word with you!
  8. TE typically takes a while to acclimate to NFL & produce… it’s good that there is no pressure (except from fans) for Ruckert to do much this year barring injury. If all goes well, the first half of the season is sort of a red-shirt period, with some sprinkling in later in the year. I want to start the year relying on the proven veteran TE weapons we picked up, in order to support Zach’s development.
  9. A failed dart throw on a cheap back-up/ developmental QB. I blame Douglas for the move, even though I’m sure Gase had something to with it. It doesn’t seem that hard to hang on a roster as a 3rd string QB but that bar has been too high for Captain Morgan. On the positive side, the Pats have probably drafted way more developmental QBs that haven’t panned out. Of course we’ve drafted more QBs to start for us that haven’t panned out… so that’s not making me feel that much better.
  10. I think people are sleeping on Detroit. They have a proven , perfectly average QB, capable of putting up big games, with decent weapons. Similar to the reasons the Jets could surprise.
  11. It would be nice to have a QB that can put up a few 3TD/0 Int games every year. Or even a few 3 TD/1 Int games… They have been few and far between for our starters in the last 10 years. Darnold only mustered one 3TD/0 Int game. Fitzpatrick had 3. Geno and Sanchez had a couple. Need to have a few of those types of big games to challenge for TD leader. It’s tough in our division because the defenses are good, with strong man coverage secondaries.
  12. 1/2 of NFL fan bases feel tortured… many legitimately. It is nice to see us operating like a professional franchise which is half the battle. The other half of the battle is a franchise QB. We have a bunch of quality young men on this team. A team that might have some actual home grown stars. A team that is set-up to be more consistently competitive. A team on the rise. Have to enjoy the journey since a Super Bowl isn’t promised.
  13. Appreciate all the work on this analysis. - bust rate high (stating the obvious) - around 23% who show “little promise” as rookies make strides 17%/(56%+17%)… if I did the math right..
  14. The reason I think the last 10 years is particularly relevant, is the changes in rules, schemes, and approach to favor offensive production. Total QB production/ offense (league totals) is at an all time high. Agree that Zach has better chance than Darnold. Agree - 2-3 year development commitment - unless year 2 = bottom 5-10 QB. Rookie season doesn't determine future. We can all agree. Luckily those who are taken highly get a little more time and consideration (the Minshews of the world are easily dismissed because of the lack of elite upside)
  15. Agree on continuity being huge, and a good reason to be optimistic about Zach progressing. The team has done everything "right" to give Zach the opportunity to develop. Off the top of my head from last few drafts: Continuity: Josh Allen, Lamar, Mahomes, Burrow, Dak, Trubisky Multiple Coordinators: Darnold, Baker, Herbert, Tua, Mariota, Rosen, I will also say continuity alone is interesting. A little chicken and egg. QB doesn't look good in his first or second season, the easy answer is poor coaching, and coaches get fired... further confusing the development of the QB, and the evaluation of the QB. Personally, I hope we stick with this coaching staff.
  16. In the last 10 years, I would be interested in learning about the "Too many examples of guys who sucked at first but got good." My only point is that it is a very short list. Most of QBs in the last 10 years that have turned out to be good, were competent in their rookie years.
  17. Haha - I hear you. I do think Darnold passed the eye test for “special” in a couple of games. I still remember Geno posting a perfect passer rating against the Fins and thinking it passed the eye test. In my old age, flashes and eye tests are now about consistency. Does the guy look like a competent QB 95% of the time…
  18. Yes! A strong running game has allowed QBs to prosper and put up numbers… Tannehill, Garapolo, and Goff (with Gurley.) The old ground and pound is now - Ground, Pound, and Pass
  19. I hate to say this but the Bengals comparison hinges on QB - Burrow is really good. He was really good as rookie as well. And last year he was really good playing behind a putrid O-line. If Zach is really good, the Bengals comparison holds.
  20. Good list. The ability to do 1 & 2 consistently can be more important than an elite arm.
  21. Most rookie QBs who never succeed, struggle mightily. Recent history shows those QBs that DON’T struggle mightily as rookies, are more likely to become average or above average QBs in the league. In the last 10 years, outside of Josh Allen, most Top 15 rookie QBs that struggle as badly as Zach, don’t succeed or reach FQB status. Perhaps Lamar might be one exception but he wasn’t a Top 15 pick, and his freakish running ability make him another anomaly. I may be missing something. There has been an influx of great QB talent in the last ten years. There are only 2 examples of QBs turning it around that I can think of after struggling mightily in rookie season - Josh Allen and Jared Goff. (Lamar’s wasn’t great as a rookie 6/3 TD/int, 5 rushing TDs, and a 84.5 passer rating). No need to obsess over rookie stats, but they don’t get thrown out either. Zach might be the answer if HE can put it together like we hope.
  22. “Worst qb ever trajectory” is only mildly hyperbolic. Definitely accurate if modified slightly to say Zach’s trajectory is consistent with being one of the worse QBs in the last 10 years. (And yes, Josh Allen is the outlier of all outliers)
  23. The front office and coaching staff have done everything to help develop Zach. Personnel, Scheme, Coaching. They even hired his personal QB coach last year. It’s not up to LaFleur and Saleh… it’s up to Zach. There aren’t many “hand holding” options left…
  24. Zach was terrible… I don’t think that is an overstatement… and even with a “good” end of the year he was still only barely above Josh Rosen level. His current trajectory is most closely aligned with colossal bust - even after looking competent with a weak cast at the end of the season. Zach was arguably the worse QB in the league last year, even after taking into account the situation and his positive tape in the last few games. What he actually did last year puts him in terrible company when you look at the history of the league. (And the rules and schemes are way more QB friendly now, perhaps making it more concerning when looking back) Most fans are hopeful he will be better, myself included. Stating the facts doesn’t make someone a Zach hater… the facts however do make skepticism understandable.
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