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jNYC1

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Posts posted by jNYC1

  1. 7 hours ago, slimjasi said:

    Not sure how most of this  is relevant to my point - which is that the conventional wisdom regarding college QB prospects is largely unreliable.

    further, I doubt very many jets fans would have actually drafted Wilson over Lawrence, despite some claims to the contrary. Lawrence was always the golden boy and he had as disappointing a rookie season as anybody. 
     

    Also, “worst starting QB I’ve ever seen type trajectory” is pretty silly after a handful of games (5 complete games pre-injury?), even for a Wilson skeptic. 

    Zach was terrible… I don’t think that is an overstatement… and even with a “good” end of the year he was still only barely above Josh Rosen level.   His current trajectory is most closely aligned with colossal bust - even after looking competent with a weak cast at the end of the season.

    Zach was arguably the worse QB in the league last year, even after taking into account the situation and his positive tape in the last few games.

    What he actually did last year puts him in terrible company when you look at the history of the league.  (And the rules and schemes are way more QB friendly now, perhaps making it more concerning when looking back)

    Most fans are hopeful he will be better, myself included.  Stating the facts doesn’t make someone a Zach hater… the facts however do make skepticism understandable.

    • Upvote 3
  2. The body of work for a GM extends beyond the crap shoot that is the draft. 

    For example, right now one of our best defensive players - JFM (highest graded Jet's defensive player according to PFF) was a waiver wire pick up.  In fact JD picked up multiple DEs, and traded one for a draft pick to SF (Willis), and got serviceable play out of Basham.  No draft pick involved and we got the equivalent of a 1st rounder in JFM.  Value out of thin air!

    There are so many examples of good GMing to point to in JD tenure.  It's ok to be skeptical until wins happen... but I fear we'd be hard pressed to find greater competency in the next GM.  The best we could hope for is the next GM is "luckier."

    • Like 1
  3. I alternate between cautious optimism that Zach will play well, and high anxiety that Zach will be a bottom 5 QB. 
     

    His floor was soo low, and the “high” of the last 5 games was encouraging but still only brought him up to 31st or 32nd best qb.

    If I’m being honest, I felt more confident in Sam after his rookie season, but weirdly more hopeful about Zach.  

    All said - it’s agony to have to wait…  It’s a strange “QB PTSD” (not trying to minimize actual PTSD)

  4. To sum it up.. JD is a professional GM that appears to be strong across all of the dimensions of the job.  He's not "just a scout", or "just a cap manager", or "just a personnel guy." 

    Has he hit on everything - no.  But no GM does.  The theory, much like analytics, is if you follow good process, you give yourself better odds over time.  I think he is doing that.

    • Upvote 3
    • Like 1
  5. JD has had strong process:

    Strategy (focus on positional value when investing resources, building the trenches, skill players)

    Financial Discipline (contract structuring/handling dead money)

    Operational Diligence  (Leveraging all avenues to improve team - trades, UDFA, waiver wire claims, free agency, etc)

    Not everything works out but it's really hard to argue the process... 

    There are very few moves that I can look at and say that made no sense... even when I look at the misses in hindsight.  The nice thing is that the misses didn't adversely impact the future of the team, unlike the moves of previous GMs.

     

    • Like 2
  6. 6 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

    Listened to this on my run. Most interesting part is Saleh discussing the organizational commitment to the process as opposed to focusing on short term goals. They really believe they’re doing the right things on a day to day basis, and those things will eventually yield results. 
     

    Also interesting question by Hughes, asking Saleh what the org sees in Zach that the rest of the world doesn’t. Saleh gave the stock answer “How hard he works behind the scenes,” but also discussed the challenges of getting Zach to get a handle on the “101” stuff about the offense, where he and LaFleur are on the same page, which will make LaFleur’s job easier. Says everyone in the org believes in Zach, but I think it’s telling that Zach is still at the point—in Saleh’s eyes— where he hasn’t mastered the 101 stuff yet. Saleh even says it’s a “quarterback friendly system.” 

    You captured it.  It sounds like Zach is still at the 101 level.  The front office and coaching staff are doing everything possible to support Zach.

    It feels like we are all waiting for things to click for Zach.  

    It’s not on the coaching staff or front office if Zach struggles…period.
     

    • Like 1
  7. 6 hours ago, Claymation said:


    What is they were not rookies when were exposed to the system?

    Burrow looked pretty comfortable in a similar system as a rookie.  Zack played in a college offense that ran similar concepts.  As a rookie, he was in theory running a QB friendly offense aligned with his strengths.

    I just don't buy the line of thinking that he played poorly because he was still trying to get comfortable/ learning the offense. 

    It does seem like he got rattled early, thought he could play hero ball, and tried to operate outside of the offense...  combined with poor mechanics that he could get by with in college but not in the NFL. 

    It was good to see the improvement later in the year... which I think had little to do with the knowledge of the offense and more to do with him operating within it.

  8. 14 minutes ago, rtnelson said:

    Tbh, I think he was doing okay with the offense, just that he got shell shocked taking so many big hits early on.  Then at the end of the year as he was finally getting his feet back under him he had nobody to throw to but Berrios.  

    I think we will see a different Zach this year.

    That’s my hope too.  I just find the narrative about not being comfortable in the offense unsettling…

    • Upvote 1
  9. Like Zachtomims47, I'm also old enough to remember when Ja'marr Chase couldn't catch NFL balls during pre-season... so I am now 100% convinced Burke's will bust.  I hear conditioning is one of the hardest things to correct.  Burkes was probably celebrating his dreams coming true, as a dude in his 20s, instead of putting in that work over the last couple of weeks.

    All jokes aside, I am more concerned about his very limited route tree, and poor effort when not getting the ball.  I think his athletic traits are sufficient but he does have a lot of work in front of him.  Not being in shape is definitely a less than ideal start, for someone that needs to get that work in.

    • Upvote 3
  10. 15 hours ago, Claymation said:

    Thanks for sharing.

    His take on getting Breece Hall for an extra 5th And him being a HR hitter is something to get excited about.

    Continuity is what will breed success with this team, Zach being in the same system will allow him to get comfortable with this offense. Saleh said he won’t have to think what people will be doing, he will just know. He brought up the Cole play where he was short of the TD as an example.

    Great interview no cliché

    It does beg the question WHY has it been soo difficult for Zach to get comfortable in a Quartberback friendly system, tailored to his strengths.

    When he was drafted we were told that Zach was comfortable with many of the concepts he would be asked to run in this offense.

    Mike White looked more “comfortable” in the system despite it being his first year in the system.  

    Jared Goff and Jimmy G entered the McVay and Shanahan systems, respectively and looked immediately more comfortable. As did a bunch of Jags in SF when Jimmy was injured.

    For a guy that studies a ton, played in a college offense with similar concepts, and has exceptional traits, the Jets probably thought he’d be further along in his command of the offense in his rookie year.

     

     

    • Post of the Week 1
  11. 1 hour ago, Dwight Englewood said:

    We failed Wilson by not trading 7 first round picks for a #1 WR

    I predict many will blame the coaches for not developing him… particularly Saleh.

    Even though the team has done everything possible to coach him up… and LaFleur was able to get 300yd + games out of Josh Johnson and Mike White.

  12. 16 minutes ago, jeremy2020 said:

    Time to throw is not really a great metric. There's a lot of nuance there. For example, in 2021..

    1. Some really bad QBs have a fast time to throw (Ben Roethlisberger, Tua Taovailoa, Andy Dalton, Davis Mills)

    2. Some great QBs have a low time to throw (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow).

    3. Some middle of the pack guys have a low time to throw (Jimmy Garrapolo, Ryan Tannehill, Kick Cousins)

    4. Some really bad QBs have a long time to throw (Jameis Winston, Justin Fields, Teddy Bridgewater)

    5. Some great QBs have a long time to throw (Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen)

    6. Some middle of the pack guys have a long time to throw (Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Derek Carr)

     

    Now, I'd agree that Zach's time to throw needs to be improved because it's not him buying time or waiting for a play to develop. I just think it would be acceptable if improved it by learning make time / avoid pressure, got the ball out quicker or some combination of both. 

    I hear you and would acknowledge the point that it perhaps is not the best metric.  The nuance and variance is interesting to see laid out in your post.

    In LaFleur's offense it's safe to say that the offense is built in on getting the ball out quickly so Zach should be top 20 (or least not more than 3 seconds.) 

    If Zach balls out holding the ball longer (and playing a lil hero ball) I'd be ok if he missed on that metric.  He was definitely terrible in that metric last year and didn't have enough explosive plays to offset holding the ball too long.

    I'd argue the great QBs and Middle of Pack QBs that hold the ball a little long tend to reward the offense with explosive plays (although Derek Carr would be the outlier) with that hypothesis.  I'd be willing to tradeoff longer time to throw if it was delivering explosive plays at a rate that offset the potential sacks/qb hits.

    • Upvote 1
  13. Hoping for a Jets QB to take a leap has been exhausting of late - Sanchez, Darnold, and now Zach.

    Usually the hope is driven by performance in a very small sample of the total season (usually a promising late season stretch)  Think Sanchez in the playoffs, or last few games of Darnold's rookie season, or the last few games of Zach's rookie season

    I choose to be optimistic… even though all the data suggests the probability of Zach being a franchise QB is much lower after his first year, than when he was drafted.  He is in bad company statistically (with many of those QBs facing similar obstacles on bad teams).  There were promising signs in the last few games but after rewatching and viewing the various analyses on Youtube, it still feels a little over-hyped.

    Having said that, Zach has to prove something this year, with the talent assembled. Can’t be “hoping” Zach takes the leap again next year. 

    Zach has to be top 20 (which is still below average) in every relevant QB metric (that are relevant regardless of games played - ie YPG, TD/INT, QB Rating, Time to Throw, Completion Percentage, Y/A, TD percentage, Int Rate, PFF Rating)

    Even though most don't think Zach is on the hot seat this season, bottom 10 QB play in 2022 will raise questions about his long term future.  In fact, there is more pressure on him than Becton, Mims, or Corey (popular make or break candidates) since the bar for QBs is higher and its the most critical position for team success - especially with a rebuilt roster.

    In his second year in a stable QB friendly offense, can Zach's production come close to the rookie seasons of Herbert, Murray, Burrow, Prescott, or even the illustrious Mac Jones, Baker Mayfield, or Gardner Minshew.

    IMHO - You can miss me with the Josh Allen comparisons as he is one the biggest outliers in NFL history - and arguably a more talented athlete - size, arm etc;

    • Upvote 2
  14. If Mims puts up better stats than Garrett Wilson this year…  Would that be a good thing or a bad thing?

    I think a lot of people might lose their minds if Davis, Moore, Mims are the top 3 WR pass catchers in terms of yds and tds (with Wilson being phased in as a deep threat, gadget guy)

    “Inconceivable” to most but we’ve also been spoiled by a few high end receivers hitting the ground running as rookies.  Not sure hit rate on wr1 or wr2 production from a rookie in Shanahan scheme is slam dunk…

  15. 25 minutes ago, Scoop24 said:

    Assman gets good guest, Tyson and play like a jet shows on podcast is entertaining  for different reasons. And the rest of the list is meh.. 

    thing is dont really care to watch regular jets fans give there opinion. I get enough of that on here and jets twitter..  but the shows that have real guest where u can learns things like inside info or sourced info. Always catch my interest.

    Boy Green has been really great about getting unique guests with either a national perspective, or an in depth perspective on players. (YouTube channel)

    Absolutely hate his click bait articles on “Heavy” as a digital writer.  Probably turns people off of his YouTube channel.

    • Upvote 1
  16. 4 hours ago, Bronx said:

    Not my favorite  as well. However, he wanted Thibs like most Jets fans and predicted the Giants taking him if we didn't. I give him credit for that

     

    Hardworking guy and does a nice job with his format.


    Overconfidence in his opinions nails it.

    He was extremely dismissive of taking RB in second round.  Indicated that the Jets shouldn’t do it… After the draft, his tune has shifted to “he didn’t think the Jets would do it.”  It’s a minor thing but… prefer content creators who own their takes

    One of his other over-confident takes is that Mims will be off the team.  He might be right but too locked in on the hot take.

    • Like 1
  17. LDT was slightly overrated.  He stabilized the line bc he didn’t screw up in egregious ways like Van Roten.  His PFF grades weren’t any better than GVR, even though the eye test says he was an improvement.  Laken and Herbig is improvement over LDT.

    LDT did love playing here snit unfortunately he may not have a spot unless injuries hit…

    • Upvote 1
  18. Two draft picks from 2020 will have an uphill battle to make the team:

    Perine

    Zuniga

    Davis is close to being a bubble player, but given the thinness at the safety position group he will likely stick if he shows improvement in tracking/ tackling ball carriers… maybe more of a box safety guy.

    • Upvote 1
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