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jNYC1

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Posts posted by jNYC1

  1. Not necessarily full year stats - but a few wish list items:

    - 1 or more 300 yd passing days would be nice.

    - 1 or more multi-touchdown days with 0 interceptions

    - No sacks from running out of bounds, when a throwaway is possible

    • Upvote 2
  2. 25 minutes ago, 65 Toss Power Trap said:

    1.TD to Interception ratio is important. GreenFish posted 2:1. I agree.

    2. He needs to stay on the field all year (Part of that is his O line, but a big part of that is his decision making and off season strength work which is on him). If he stays relatively healthy, 3900 yards should be the minimum expectation if Jets play a run-heavy offense. 

    3. His completion percentage is very important. More than half the QBs last year were above 66%. Get there Zach. Stop the bounce passes and work on the short and quick passes.

    4. He needs to get into a good rhythm early in games, not starting in Quarter 3. I'd like to see fewer "3 and Outs" in the first half of the game.

    The stat that more than half of QBs were at 66% or higher completion percentage is an eye opener and a good gut check.

     This type of scheme should have a ton of easy completions (It’s not like the Futuristic Gase offense…)

    • Upvote 2
  3. The value is in getting the Jets top ranked runner based on the Jets scouts and the coaches.

    No sleepless nights worrying about a Michael Carter injury and having to rely on jags (Ty Johnson or Austin Walters.) Less worry about hoping a lesser talent hits…

    Valuable weapon, insurance, and fit = higher probability of working out (although still not 100%)

    Zach played better when running game got going a little.  Heck - Sam Darnold was on track to win come back player of the year with a healthy McCaffrey.  Baker took the Browns to the playoffs with an offense led by Chubb/Hunt combo.  

    Joe D understands draft value really well, but also knows we gotta win some games, or at the very least help the QB and score some points.

    • Upvote 2
  4. 2 minutes ago, Hex said:

    I doubt he breaks 4000 yards, but he might. What I'm really hoping for is more TDs and less INTs. In the end I don't give a crap how many yards passing he has or what his passer rating is, as long as it leads to touchdowns instead of turnovers. Wilson could throw for 5000 yards for all I care, but if he has 10 TDs and 15 INTs it doesn't matter.

    I hear you.  I care about the yards as way to evaluate the potential of the pass catching weapons and the development of the younger pass catchers.   Modern NFL, 4k yards in passing offense is competent.

    Also, selfishly it’s more fun to watch a functioning passing offense in a passing league.  4k might still be on the anemic side but signals we might be able to creep into the top half of the league in total offense.

    2:1 TD/INT is the bar that Zach hopefully clears comfortably in season 2.  Last 5 games and rating in red zone make me hopeful.

    • Upvote 1
  5. Wilson has upside which is exciting.  He can beat man coverage - which hopefully can be exploited as the Y or slot early.  

    Once he can beat press man consistently he may be able to play the X as well in his second or third season (he played a lot of X in college and press man was the only thing that slowed him).  In our division he’ll see a lot of press man on the outside.  
     

    Right now, Elijah (and Davis) might be our best weapons currently against press man.  It’ll be interesting in training camp to watch the alignments.  I’m sure they’ll give him reps at the X to see how far along he is.

    • Like 1
  6. 3 hours ago, derp said:

    Not sure what product you’re reading. Page 139 of the pdf, page 123 in the bottom corner.

    I was looking at the Post draft RSP cheat sheet. He has Skylar 4th on his post draft chest sheet.

    Doh - You are right - on his pre-draft “depth of talent” metric he has that kid as his top prospect in the last 3 years.

    • Upvote 1
  7. I like the 4,000 yards min for 17 games:

    Implies bare minimum and reasonable receiving yard totals for the skill position groups:

    WRs: ~2,600 (for 3 starting WRs that would be 867 receiving yards per receiver)

    TEs: ~720 (for 2 starting TEs that would be 360 receiving yards per TE)

    RBs: ~680 (for 2 RBs that would be 340 receiving yards per RB)

    (Obviously, more skill positions should produce stats in addition to the above)

    Also, 235 yds/game should be reasonable in a run heavy offense.

    Anything less than 4k and our skill position groups/players will all have terrible stats/production... even at 4K production from starters will look sub-par.

    • Upvote 1
  8. 5 minutes ago, derp said:

    Waldman’s top QB over the last three classes I believe, higher than any of the guys here, higher than Lawrence, is Skylar Thompson from Kansas State - the kid the Dolphins drafted in the seventh round.

    As someone who has actually purchased Waldman's product I can confirm NOT TRUE.

    • Upvote 1
  9. When do the 2022 predict Zach's stat lines begin... ?  It feels like some predictions floating around now are even lower than the optimistic predictions heading into last season (ie 3,500 yards, 20+ TDs, even though better cast and a hope for full 17 games)

  10. 31 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

    Note to all those saying “Hell yeah, this expert loves Breece Hall!”: Waldman hated Zach Wilson. Loathed.

     

    https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2021/04/15/matt-waldmans-rsp-film-room-with-mark-schofield-qb-zach-wilson-byu/l

    His analysis on Zach has proved to be correct to date.  The hope is that Zach continues to improve with a better supporting cast. 

    It did seem that Zach chipped away at "some" of the flaws Waldman pointed out before Zach was drafted. 

    The fact remains based on current body of work, including a really solid home stretch, Zach has a lot to prove in 2022... more than Mims, Becton, QW, and others that are the focus of less positive fan prognostications.

    • Upvote 1
  11. Clemons seems like the replacement for Jabari Zuniga… always need some in pipeline for rotational edge.  Less of a project than Zuniga.

    • Like 1
  12. The right choice in this spot!  Offensive league, surround Zach with weapons.  Arguably best RB in draft.  We have a solid line.  Offense runs off the run and play action game.  Offense is complete with the RB committee solidified, with depth.

    Forget the “value” nonsense… this is the pick most likely to help the Jets succeed on offense.  Pick up a jag LB, Safety in the rest of free agency or next years draft.  

    • Upvote 1
    • Like 1
  13. “I don’t know why Joe Douglas hasn’t delivered a winning product yet.  Taking over a team devoid of talent - especially at impact positions, with bad contracts/dead money, and no franchise QB is a problem that should have been solved after the first two “full” off-seasons… and no competent GM would ever have a disappointing draft - it doesn’t happen.”

    If you or any of your loved ones are suffering from these delusional takes above seek help immediately!
     


     

     

  14. BTW - if Saleh and JD select a CB at 4 over an available edge, that means Saleh thinks that Sauce will add more to his scheme vs the edges available at 4.  

    I’m going to go out on a limb and say Saleh should know what’s best for his scheme.  The pick at 4 could help settle the internet debate on whether his current  scheme/ plan for the Jets could benefit from a high end CB.

    Can’t wait!

  15. If the pass rusher we draft get less than 5 sacks in his first year he will be labeled a bust and we will scream about it.  

    CB, Edge, Wide Receiver, Tackle are all premium positions that can impact the game and help generate wins.

    I have an opinion and preference but ultimately am hoping whoever we pick doesn’t bust.  Every Jets fan will be ecstatic if our first two picks are at premium positions, play well, and turn into great players.  

    Saleh and Douglas are joined at the hip, have a solid process, and with luck, that hopefully delivers two premium players, at premium positions.  

    if either of the first two picks don’t hit there will likely be a riot but it’s the nature of the beast… we’re not the only franchise with a terrible list of first round busts although since we’re Jets fanatics it’s feels that way. 

    If it doesn’t work out, hopefully it won’t be bc we took a non-premium position or DT in the first round.  The biggest first round decision was made last year at QB.

    Trust Saleh and JD… and root for it to work out

    • Upvote 1
  16. 13 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    I don’t think it’s a poor definition.  A player’s value to the league as a whole is pretty telling.  It’s the threshold that needs to be adjusted.  A single top 50 pick is clearly way too low.

    Shane was just using that as a barometer to show how the Jets don’t have anything close to a “blue chip talent” by league standards outside of MAYBE Elijah Moore.

    Trade value also reflects contract being taken on or demanded in the future which distorts it use.  It seems simpler to use some sort of position ranking threshold IMHO... and perhaps a look back at ranking if injuries or down year (ie Top 10 most current year, or Top 10 at position in 2 of the last three years)

    • Upvote 2
  17. Of course we all care about having a Blue Chip QB, which is the position where it's most important to have a Blue Chip.  Blue Chip QB gives you a shot... and at least makes the Jets competitive/entertaining - year in year out.  It almost feels like a Blue Chip analysis of a team is mostly irrelevant without the QB given where the NFL is at this point.

    • Upvote 1
  18. Outside of the trenches not too much to get excited about.

    CJ Mosley is definitely an above average LB (given about 60-90 starting offball LBs starting in the league - watching him play he is definitely a top 30 LB)

    Elijah Moore and Michael Carter are emerging at their positions and project to be above average, with blue chip potential

     

  19. Defensive Line

    QW is blue chip player at interior line

    JFM is a borderline blue chip player (doesnt get the sacks, but grades out really well against run and pass)

    Carl Lawson is a borderline blue chip player (grades out well against pass, generates a ton of pressure, and needs to convert pressures to sacks to cross the line)

  20. 5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    That’s not a blue chip return. 

    Sam is definitely not a blue chip player but we did get Top 50 draft pick compensation for him. 

    Basically what you can get for a player is a bad way to define blue chip.

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