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Dink and Drunk

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About Dink and Drunk

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  1. An Introduction and Jet's Scheme Question

    I am going to post Matt Bowen's 3-4 and 4-3 articles as a reference, because I am going to be using his language to below. Based on what many have already said, I am not sure that Bowen's overview actually covers the diversity of defensive schemes in the NFL, but it still may be helpful terminologically. Bowen describes a "3-4 Eagle", where the weak side ILB appears to be responsible for the A gap or "scrape" (it appears "scrape" is for sweeps). Perhaps this is the one-gap 3-4 that you were referring to. It actually looks pretty similar, but it would not surprise me if there were multiple 3-4 one gaps. I will try to re-watch those the gyfs as if Jets were running a "3-4 Eagle". They should work now as external links... If you find a different write up and explanation of the one gap 3-4 let me know! I find this stuff super interesting. I agree about Ealy: The patriots really want DL players to be able to both 1 and 2 gap, and also really like DE players that can play both DE as well as OLB/EDGE. On defense (as well as offense) the Patriots want players with flexible skill sets, to enable schematic flexibility. I believe the Patriots use a 3-4/4-3 hybrid that sometimes splits two-gapping and one-gapping on different sides of the line. It is not clear if to consider it a "4-3 under" or "3-4 under" because these two "different" systems are actually quite similar positionally. The result is that the OL never know which DL players are going to shoot a gap, or attempt to occupy multiple blockers and maximum space. I am not sure if the Patriots ever two-gap from a traditional 4-3 look. The info below suggests it is possible. @PCP63 was describing a TCU scheme where the DL was two-gapping in a base 4-2, and also described how a 3rd hybrid safety sometimes help in run support. If it is possible in a 4-2, it seems just as possible if you replace that hybrid safety with an athletic OLB and call it a 4-3. Perhaps this is a over simplification.
  2. An Introduction and Jet's Scheme Question

    Thanks! I did not realize that teams used a one gap system from a balanced 3-4 front (Matt Bowen calls it "3-4 Okie"). I am sure there is plenty of stuff I don't know about. Historically, 3-4 was two gap system, but perhaps either front can use either system now. By the way, did those gyfs disappear on your end as well? I can't see them anymore. The original link still works, maybe it is a site error.
  3. An Introduction and Jet's Scheme Question

    I noticed a similar thing watching Tampa's and Green Bay's routes. It is almost as if they are completely independent of each-other, each acting in isolation, yet not "stressing the zone" as you say. I actually think Green Bay might feature isolation routes by design, to try to force 1v1 vs. man. It just requires his receivers to beat solo coverage consistently, or for Rodgers to keep plays alive. I am not a fan of it however, and I think Rodgers would put up much better numbers on a different team. If you notice any particular plays like that next Jets game you watch (or any game for that matter), try to remember the time it happened. I will create clips for you so others can check it out. I really like going back to the tape. Sometimes one observation from someone sparks an entirely different thought in someone else. I have seen the safety hybrid referred to as the star. I will have to read up on TCU's more, will get back to you.
  4. Bowles Sees no Need to Play Young QB’s

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/ 538 has Jets going 6 - 10. Their prediction would result in a 10th round selection. 7% chance of making the playoffs.
  5. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    This was the quote from Woody: “Really, the way I want to be judged this year, hopefully from the fans standpoint, is watch how we improve during the year, look at each individual on the team and see how they’re getting better,” the Jets owner said. “If they’re getting better, that’s a mark of progress. That’s what we’re looking for.” https://nypost.com/2017/05/06/bowles-jets-expectations-are-much-different-than-woody-johnsons/ I agree that they did not want him to tank. I think #1 (gave Bowles a shot with young team and vet qb) is way, way more likely, to the point I assumed it was true when I evaluated your GM in my intro thread. I do think #2 (failed Bowles tank) is possible, so mentioned it. Finally, I agree that I am unsure if anything is actually improving on the coaching level. It is not a "great victory". Bowles might have to go, but if he has a decent finish, it would be wrong to do it this year. If the team finishes strong and shows improvement, he will have achieved the criteria going in.
  6. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    If you can't draft a QB, and you can't get a legitimate franchise FA, I expect you will either 1) go with another bridge QB or 2) embrace full tank with a new coach. Most teams are like that because even finding decent QBs is hard. Can you think of another team besides the Patirots that had a good shot of winning the Super Bowl with the back-up? Todd Bowles was told he was going to be evaluated based on team improvement. It is hard to show improvement with a garbage can under center. McCown is not good, he is mediocre. But it is Bowles best shot at doing the job they asked him to do, i.e. show team improvement.
  7. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    I am not saying you can make the call by watching the college tape. When someone is considered a good or bad prospect, they are projected from CFB to NFL. I am saying you can make the call by watching him in NFL practice. Brady went from QB#4 to QB#2 pretty quickly, based on a QB competition in camp. I think fans extremely over-value the tape that they have on QBs, and undervalue the live scouting that happens in situational football drills. They have seen Petty fail in the 2-minuet offense in practice, why think his is going to do it in front of 60k? It not is like he was particularly "clutch" when he last played. Fans made a similar mistake with Jimmy Garoppolo. Everyone saying he has only played in 2 NFL games is missing the point. The Patriots ran three joint practices. There were opportunities for Jimmy to be evaluated running the Patriots offense. Just because we can't see it on the TV set does not mean it is not happening. I can't help you with the "this lot" part.
  8. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    I have one of two interpretations: 1. The FO believes (as I do) that is better for team development to be able to play competent football and try to win games. They viewed McCown as a JAG QB incase Petty & Hack were still garbage, which they were. They wanted to give Petty & Hack one more shot, and they missed. For whatever reason, they also thought the available QBs were a reach at the spots they were drafting at. McCown has been getting them through the season while improving as a team, and their plan is to draft a QB or get a proven good FA QB. 2. The FO assumed that Bowles was such a bad coach that the tank was inevitable. They gave him (what they perceived to be) a bad vet QB, so they would have no excuses not to fire him at the end of the year. They wanted their current HC to be the tank commander, and the stuff about judging him over the seasons was BS. What they failed to realize is that Bowles is a deeply flawed, but not terrible coach. They actually made Bowles easier by giving him a bunch of young players who were trying hard. Now they are in the position of a failed tank, and being unsure if they can realistically fire Bowles without hurting the future chances of getting a better coach.
  9. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    But once again, you are assuming that the FO & HC needs more information to evaluate Petty as a potential starter. Suppose they think the chances of becoming a JAG level are QB 1/100000: Is it that hard to believe that the detrimental effect to team building outweighs the 1/100000? How about the impact to being able to get future coaches, when you have an ugly divorce with Bowles while forcing a unwarranted QB change? The owner created the space for him to "prove it", but midseason you want to force Bowles join the end of the tank line and buy a single lotto ticket? How about all the other young players who know that McCown is their best option? Nice job building a culture of accountability.
  10. Interesting Francessa points

    I hope you are right. My team is also going to draft a QB. I see about half the league that might take one high. I am afraid their is going to be a run on them. I think the situation is different than last year because a bunch of current vet QBs are getting very close to hanging up the cleats.
  11. Interesting Francessa points

    The problem is a ton of teams are drafting QBs as well. The Jets are in a tough spot. This was the year to tank, but they asked their coach to prove it instead. I feel for you guys.
  12. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    The person you are calling stupid has had consistently the most logical argument. The people critiquing him are basically just mad that you are not tanking. They have failed to address the points the stupid poster made for the last 8 pages.
  13. Bills bench Tyrod Taylor

    YOU DON'T KNOW THOSE 2 QBS SUCK BUT THE COACHES DO YOU ARE GOING TO DRAFT A QB ANYWAY YOU MIGHT RETAIN A ROOKIE DEAL QB ANYWAY JUST TO HAVE A CHEAP #2 FOR BETTER OR WORSE, TODD BOWLES WAS NOT ASKED TO BE A TANK COMMANDER Is that clear enough for you?
  14. Bowles Sees no Need to Play Young QB’s

    TB also shut down NE pretty well (although the Pats were pretty banged up for that one). We can't just throw away that PHI and NE data. I understand what you are saying, more generally; there is a ton of uncertainty, and I was over optimistic. I sure as he.. don't think the Jets put up 40. I do think they will be able to score. To me the big unknown is Brock Lobster against your D. Forget, my particular guess. I want you to give your honest opinion on the Jets winning probability of all the remaining games. It will be fun to see their chances of each particular record. I can write it up as a r script. Or not either way!
  15. Bowles Sees no Need to Play Young QB’s

    I agree 7-9 might be too optimistic. I should have just said 6-10. I think we may be overreacting to the last game, not sure. "well, two or three maybes = one for sure": Lets make this whole thing more mathematically precise. Lets specify winning probabilities game per game, and try to do the probability calculation for 4-10, 5-11, etc. Do you want to give me your win probability per game first? Maybe 538 or someone has one. "Denver as if they're not ten times better than Tampa Bay on defense": I wonder if Tampa Bay defense is better than people realize, and if people are thinking about old Denver D of old. The Denver's defense is being exposed recently. If the Giants can make it happen, the Jets can. I also think that the particular game plan the Patriots used happens to some of the themes the Jets employ. Tampa is a base zone team has a bunch of good LBs, which happens to match up well vs. the Jets. I don't think you can trust McCown to spread the field consistently, so you are forced to play into their strengths. https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-points-per-game
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