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  1. I tend to agree with you and I do think that Gase has a pretty good eye for talent - much better than Bowles/Maccagnan did - and I agree with the program building message, but his lapses in coaching are too glaring to ignore. Within 3 games Loggains has simplified the playbook and implemented more pocket movement, downfield passing, and pre-snap motion to try and simplify things for the QB. They're also all things that benefit Darnold more than anyone. Gase had spent the last 22 games mashing square pegs into round holes, with a few exceptions in 2019, and the fact that he was so committed to it just tells you everything you need to know about his coaching philosophy. I don't want the Jets to move off Sam Darnold. I feel it would be a mistake to do so, and the Jets are really in a no-win scenario... if the Jets trade Darnold, land Lawrence, and Darnold turns out being the better pro (even if Lawrence becomes good in his own right), it will be a stain on the franchise for decades. Similarly, if the Jets passed on Lawrence and he became the next "it" player with Darnold drifting towards irrelevance, it will be the most infamous moment in Jets history. I realize that there is a lot of ominous stats to suggest he's a bust or will not prove to be a franchise QB. I also realize that he's the only QB in the NFL who has had such a deficient support system trifecta of injury/coaching/talent in their first 3 seasons, and being only 23 years old, I think he still has a bright future if he has just average talent with a coach willing to cater the offense to his skill set. The problem Douglas faces is risk. Should he risk not taking a QB because he thinks Sam will defy odds and become the franchise QB he's capable of being with only 1 year left on a cost-controlled contract, or does he accept that Sam may improve but takes a QB because its the safer/cost efficient bet (clean slate scenario). You also have to consider the coaching aspect... a coach who has never worked with Sam Darnold will not take the job if passing on Lawrence (and possibly Fields) is part of the plan. In many ways Sam controls his own destiny. Sam can put this all to bed if he just comes out and plays well. If he can play like Joe Flacco did last Monday, or like he has at times in 2018 and 2019, they will likely win a few games, eliminate themselves from #1 overall, and this won't be a topic in 2 months from now. If he improves but Jets still draft #1, the Jets likely move on from him but a team will seek to install him as their starter next year. If he continues playing the way he has, it will be hard for any team to bank on him being their starter in 2021, even if his struggles are not all his fault.
  2. First thing I'll say is I do believe Darnold will improve. The team is starting to play better on offense - largely do to improved chemistry, and if the OL keeps improving and Crowder/Perriman/Mims can stay healthy (a big if), I think we'll see a better Darnold in the final 7 games. I also know for sure that Joe Flacco was not asked to make any difficult decisions on Monday, as they seemed to dumb down Gase's offense to simplify the playbook. The question really is how much better will he play. I'm one of the biggest Darnold defenders out there, but Darnold must put-up if he's to establish himself as a franchise QB for the NYJ. I don't have the data handy, but I charted out 3 projections for Darnold by calculating (1) his career statistics over his final 7 games in each of his 2 seasons; (2) his best 4 game stretches in each of his past 2 seasons; and (3) percentage of expected growth derived from data jumps across the league including his own from year 1 to year 2. For instance, Sam had a 92.7 QB Rating in his final 7 games last year; his best 4 game stretch he had a 107.5 QB Rating. In 2018, he had a 73.0 QB Rating in his final 7 games; his best 4 game stretch he had a 99.1 QB Rating (I have a lot more important stats than QB rating but trying to avoid getting too bogged into the details). Based on calculating a number of factors, here are the 3 scenarios from status quo, to improvement, to stellar (within reason... there's always the extreme scenario where Darnold implodes/explodes, but they would counter statistical norms): 7 games Cmp Att Cmp% Yds YPA TD TD% INT INT% Rate Scenario 1: 147 246 59.8% 1658 6.7 9 3.7% 7 2.8% 80.3 Scenario 2: 153 244 62.7% 1834 7.5 12 4.9% 5 2.0% 93.5 Scenario 3: 163 243 67.1% 2040 8.4 16 6.6% 3 1.2% 109.8 Now applied to Darnold's career overall... Career Cmp Att Cmp% Yds YPA TD TD% INT INT% Rate Scenario 1: 771 1292 59.7% 8592 6.7 48 3.7% 41 3.2% 78.7 Scenario 2: 777 1290 60.2% 8768 6.8 51 4.0% 39 3.0% 81.2 Scenario 3: 787 1289 61.1% 8974 7.0 55 4.3% 37 2.9% 84.2 In scenario 1, which pretty much mirrors Darnold's career statistics, would leave Darnold in a not so favorable position statistically speaking. Over the past 20 years, Eli Manning and Donovan McNabb are the only QBs who had similarly percentages over their first 3 seasons yet went on to be a long-term QB for the team that drafted him. Alex Smith had the worst numbers across the board and still found success with the 49ers, but it wasn't until his trade to KC when his career really took off. Scenario 2 would find Darnold in a more favorable position among his peers, and would put him in the range of Jay Cutler, Ryan Tannehill, Andy Dalton, Cam Newton territory, which does not necessarily scream "too good to move on" from. Scenario 3 would project a lot better. While there are some players in the group that had similar percentages and didn't work out (see Winston, Mariota), he's among good company with Brett Favre. Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Matthew Stafford, and Derek Carr as well. There's that saying that "stats don't lie", but often times they do. None of the stats account for Darnold's youth (youngest day 1 starting QB in the history of the game); they don't account for coaching; they don't account for team talent. You can also skew stats to persuade one way or another; you want to compare the sacks per game Darnold has endured among QBs who made 30+ starts in their first 3 seasons (he's had 82 in 32 games), he's second only to David Carr. The difference: 56.8% completion, 2.8 TD%, 3.5 INT%. All being said, the Jets are in a position where they will likely have a top 3 pick with a few really good QB prospects to choose from. Joe Douglas needs Darnold to give him a reason not to draft those QBs. It's not like he's not capable: Darnold has had 3-4 game stretches of elite QB play in his career with worse talent on the field. He has an offensive line that's finally gelling together, and is entering a stretch where he will have solid receiving depth (and speed!) available to him for the first time in his career, and he has extra time to get further acclimated with Loggains to master the simplified offense. Bottom line is this: Darnold has it in him to even outperform Scenario 3 above. He has the ability to go on a late season tear the way he did in 2018 or the way Brett Favre did in 1994 (First Half: 59.5 CMP%, 6.2 YPA, 3.5 TD%, 2.5 INT% / Second Half: 65.1 CMP%, 7.1 YPA, 7.7 TD%, 2.3 INT%). Down the stretch, the lack of talent and coaching can't be a persistent excuse. Darnold has to overcome it, and if he does, the Jets will likely not draft #1 and he will continue to be the Jets QB. If he doesn't, he won't be. It's that simple.
  3. Your numbers are wayyyyyy off. Laremy Tunsil (LT) - $22 million Avg/Yr; $50 million guaranteed Lane Johnson (RT) - $18 million Avg/Yr; $55.845 million guaranteed Taylor Lewan (LT) - $16.5 million Avg/Yr; $50 million guaranteed Trent Brown (RT) - $16.5 million Avg/Yr; $36.25 million guaranteed Anthony Castanzo (LT) - $16.5 million Avg/Yr; $17 million guaranteed As far as preparing for second contracts: it’s not anything anyone needs to worry about when drafting him. Tunsil spent his first season at LG and he has the highest average salary per year. Johnson is a RT and has the highest guarantees of any offensive lineman in the NFL (the number that truly matters). Becton will have 4 years left of team control, Sewell would have 5 years. This is what we call a “First World Problem.”
  4. Honestly you can take Sewell and play him wherever you want. That's Douglas's philosophy: play the best 5 no matter position. I know people look at size and assume Becton goes to RT. I'm not so sure. Sewell played RT through high school, he was the No. 2 Guard recruit, and he's got a lot of size himself. Also, just because Becton wasn't the top prospect coming in/Sewell is a "generational talent" coming in does not mean he won't be the better long-term. If Becton is proven to be an elite LT, he's going to stay there. Also, if Fant continues to play well, he'll probably stay at RT for another year or two too. That means you draft Sewell and plug him in on the weakest unit on the line. If in the future his best position is LT and Becton's is RT, great. If his is RT and Becton's is LT, great. Either way - it's all great. Personally, I absolutely love the idea of having Becton, Sewell, Fant, McGovern, Lewis/Clark on the same line. I think long-term, yes, Becton and Sewell would be the tackles. Which sides? Who cares. Right tackles have become far more impactful than they used to be given the new style passing offenses. Happy to have both.
  5. Yes. I've also watched him be done for the past 5 years and register wild performances out of nowhere
  6. Here's the thing people on the "trade Darnold" train are ignoring. Imagine if you trade Darnold, Flacco gets cute and revives "elite Joe Flacco" for 2-3 games, miss out on Lawrence and Darnold becomes a franchise QB for the Colts? It's pretty clear to me at this point. Either Sam will show some levels of improvement which will likely result in drafting outside of #1, or the Jets will land #1 which will mean Darnold continued to play poorly and the Jets end up trading him for what is likely to be a 2nd round pick.
  7. We just suck at calling plays and putting our players in good positions to succeed, and unless dramatic changes are made in game planning, play calling, and player discipline it won't matter who is on the field. The stat I posted in another threat says it all... we lead the league in 2nd & 8+ situations, while also lead the league in run plays in those situations. Moronic. Gase has a tendency to let personnel over-dictate his play-calling tendencies so it's possible we finally see an offensive outbreak (see Weeks 10-12, 2019), but that may not necessarily be for the better (i.e. Breshad Perriman returns and he calls 3 20+ yard pass plays in a row to begin the game). Ultimately, I am looking forward to any opportunity to watch Darnold play and seeing the rookies would be nice (Zuniga, Clark could be back as well), but I'm not optimistic it will change output.
  8. The most valuable players on the Jets and my perspective on whether to trade + compensation needed to make a trade: QB Sam Darnold - Do not trade him (2021 1st round pick + conditional 2022 3rd round pick). I still personally believe in Sam Darnold, and the Jets owe it to themselves to be sure if he is the right QB for this team. Sam has been able to make players around him better before, and while the season hasn't gone well I'd like to see him with a new player-caller, a stabilized line, and some healthy WRs. If Sam actually ends the season on a high note despite a depleted roster it would be bittersweet; it likely removes them from the Lawrence discussion (which I'm fine with), but gives hope that Darnold does have what it takes to be a franchise QB going forward. Unless a team offers something like a 1st-plus, I'm holding firm. WR Jamison Crowder - Do not trade him (2021 2nd round pick). A really good player who is under contract for another year and could help the 2021 team... NFL rebuilds don't take as long as they once did nor will Douglas will be awarded an infinite amount of time to build a competitive roster. Unless someone is willing to trade a 2nd, hold him. WR Breshad Perriman - Trade him (2021 5-6th round pick). Unlike Crowder, Perriman is a FA at years end and the Jets have nothing to play for. They can likely get a 5-6th round pick for him, while letting Denzel Mims, Jeff Smith, Vyncint Smith, and Lawrence Cager get additional playing time. TE Chris Herndon - Do not trade him (2021 4th round pick). The only reason why you don't trade him right now is because your not going to get anything back in return; his value couldn't be lower right now. However, you'd be forced to consider if someone gave something like a 4th round pick. RB Frank Gore - Trade him (conditional 2022 7th round pick). See Steve McLendon deal. I doubt there's a market, but give the guy a chance to end his career on a high note while opening up a spot for the young guys to play. DL Quinnen Williams - Do not trade him (2021 1st round pick + 4th round pick). I know there is some excitement around the thought of a fire-sale, but at the same time it's not wise to start trading away players just because. Williams hasn't lived up to the hype, but he also hasn't been used correctly and is only 22 years old with 2 more cost-controlled years. Leaving the cupboard empty isn't Joe Douglas's prerogative - it's simply to get value back in return for players who are unlikely to have a future in New York. DE Henry Anderson - Trade him (conditional 2023 7th round pick). Another player that I doubt would have a market, but if someone were to offer anything the team should take it. LB Avery Williamson - Trade him (conditional 2021 7th round pick). I think he can provide some value to a team, but they may get turned off paying a guaranteed salary. If someone makes an offer, might as well let him free. LB Jordan Jenkins - Trade him (2021 6th round pick). I don't see Jenkins landing the Jets any more than a 6th round pick, but even then it would be worth it. The Jets aren't going anywhere and it's not like they can get any less competitive than they have; might as well give the young guys PT. CB Brian Poole - Trade him (2021 5th round pick). It's hard to say what one should expect in return for Poole as he's a slot only player that won't fit in every scheme, but he's really really good if used correctly. With him being a free agent at seasons end, I think I'd bite on a 5th round pick. Unless the team has plans to re-sign Poole, you make the deal. S Marcus Maye - Trade him (2021 4th round pick). If Douglas has no plans to re-sign Marcus Maye, you take what is likely to be no more than a 4th round pick for the same reasons as Poole. However, if the team does foresee a contract extension on the horizon, the best thing to do would be to hold firm.
  9. The rate we pass when in 2nd and long, not how often. In 2nd & 8+ situations, we are calling a pass play 54% of the time. That is lowest percentage in the NFL.
  10. We have no idea whether the Jets will be able to stay healthy, but there's no doubt some of these players are going to make an impact on game days, just as Jeff Smith had against Denver. I do think Mims will provide some sort of impact, even if its as little as being a deep threat akin to how Vyncint Smith was in 2019. I do think Smith, Cashman (day 1 starter), Zuniga, and Maulet will make contributions as well. However, I don't think we'll notice major changes in result until the play-calling changes. I can't even to begin to describe how horrifying this is, especially when you consider that the Jets (1) have the highest negative point differential; and (2) lead the NFL in 2nd & long situations. If anything, we should be in the top third of the NFL at the very least. This team does have some talent, and as they get healthy there's a chance the Jets win a few random games and play better as the 2013 Jaguars did down the stretch. But I truly don't believe that happens unless Gase does a complete 180 as a play-caller or until he is fired.
  11. I would love nothing more than for Bell to rush for 250 yards and get Gase fired in the process.
  12. And I'm aware of these feelings. I'm aware of the history. But it's a historical fallacy and a fallacy of composition to compare past administrations (whether it were past owners, general managers, or coaches) to one another just because they happen to wear the same logo and share the same fanbase. Emotionally, I feel this team is cursed. Namath made a deal with the devil and we won't succeed until he passes on. Rationally, I consider specific events and mismanaged decisions that have resulted in where we are today. We're all feeling a bit "emotional" these days, hence why I figured to outline some of the aspects that rationally show there is some hope for Jets football in the next decade.
  13. I know this seems like a regurgitated message that Jets fans have grown far too accustomed to, but amid all this madness, I just wanted to point out a few things for fans to look forward to as we move forward... Most important: Contrary to media pundit speculation, the Jets job will be highly attractive. The Jets are virtually guaranteed to have a young, talented franchise-caliber QB prospect on the roster in 2021. Whether it will be Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, or whoever, the Jets are virtually guaranteed to enter next year with a talented young QB. Obviously opinions are split on who that player will be, but let's not compare Darnold to a total bust just yet. Many reputable NFL experts around the league vouch for the player, he has shown us an ability to make elite plays, and he's only 23 years old. He is a prime candidate to improve immensely outside of a Gase offense- which clearly does not fit his skillset. He has the rest of the season to turn around his play, and if he doesn't the Jets will likely have the top pick. Then it will be decision time, but either way, the Jets will not be entering next season with a lack of a QB or a veteran stop-gap scenario. The Jets will have stability at General Manager for at least 2 more seasons. We all know the stories about how respected Joe Douglas is as a talent evaluator. He's used the means and resources he's had to add guys. He's made some mistakes (letting Robby Anderson walk among the worst of them), but he's also made some major additions: Becton-who looks like he can be a HOF talent; JFM-who has quietly been amongst the best interior pass rushers in the NFL; Fant-a FA find who looks like a stable starting NFL tackle; Lewis-a serviceable LG who at worst serves as a top reliable backup; Ficken-most accurate kicker in the NFL. To judge him for the rest of his 1st draft this early would be foolish- 7 of 9 players have dealt with injury, limited offseason due to pandemic, no pre-season, etc. Whether you disagree with Adams being traded is a personal preference, but the deal itself has been unanimously lauded given how much the Jets received in return. Douglas will have 4.5 more years on his contract (and 4 drafts) at season's end. That amount of time aligns perfectly with the next HC, who will likely sign a 4 year deal unless it's a superstar candidate. If they both failed miserably, they would be fired beginning 2023. More likely, they would get until 2024 (3 years for HC) before the team made an ultimatum. The Jets have the most robust draft capital they've had since the 2000 NFL Draft. This can't be understated. Over the next 2 seasons, the Jets have four-1st round picks, two-2nd round picks, and three-3rd round picks. The last time the Jets had anything close to that over a two year span? 2000, when the Jets had five-1sts, a 2nd, and two-3rds. Obviously hitting on the picks is important, but having more picks increases the likelihood of success, and it increases the attractiveness of the job. The Jets will have close to $90 million in cap space, which projects as 3rd most in the NFL. People can speculate how the money will be used and if it matters, but here are the facts: Jets cash spending is amongst the lowest in the NFL in 2020, and it will be the lowest in the NFL in 2021. Contrary to speculation, the Jets are not "poor"- if there was any spending limit imposed on Douglas, it had little to do with Douglas and more to do with taking a year off after spending major dollars in 2019, as well as to force Gase to coach out the year and prove his worth before going on another spending spree in 2021. Fact is they have to spend the money by rule, and the only noteworthy Jets player who is due for an extension in 2021-2022 other than Marcus Maye ('21), Jamison Crowder ('22), John Franklin-Myers ('21), and Foley Fatukasi ('21). Bottom-line: for better or worse, the Jets will be big spenders, and that always has attracted coaching candidates. If Woody Johnson returns, it may not as bad as an owner as you think. I know I'll catch some flack for this one, but hear me out. Woody Johnson took over the team in 2001 and left in 2017. During that span, the Jets went 123-133 and made the playoffs 6 times in 17 seasons. While not satisfactory, the Jets also never had back-to-back losing seasons under his ownership (the Jets are on their way to 4 losing seasons in a row). He hired 5 Head Coaches: Al Groh (who resigned after 1 season), Herm Edwards (5 seasons), Eric Mangini (3 seasons), Rex Ryan (6 seasons), and Todd Bowles (ultimately 4 seasons). For all the negative press and the ups-and-downs, Woody Johnson was always known to be an enabler who demands the best out of his employees (NYT). He was also respected enough among the NFL to be nominated to the 8-man committee to anoint the successor to Paul Tagliabue for NFL Commissioner, and was a major player in CBA negotiations. Say what you want about him meddling in personnel affairs (i.e. trading for Favre, signing Revis in FA) and his GM selections/hierarchy structure post-Tannenbaum (Idzik, Maccagnan), and the team's inability to find sustainability, but to say that people around the NFL view him as a bad owner because of his lack of relationships with players is simply a sensationalized concept. His biggest flaw was that his desire to win and make splash moves to increase PR prevented the Jets from truly tearing down and rebuilding the team. The Jets are undergoing that process, and furthermore, they have a respected GM locked up who seems to have the right priorities (building through the draft, building from the LOS outwards). Contrary to popular belief, Woody Johnson potentially returning may come at the perfect time and could promote a welcomed change. Whereas Christopher Johnson has established a better relationship with the players yet has become complacent with losing as a means of rebuilding, Woody brings back an edginess and re-establishes a tone, attitude, and agenda that losing is not tolerated. Again, I'll quote The Dark Knight/Thomas Fuller: the darkest hour is just before dawn. Even if we are facing possibly the worst of circumstances in franchise history (at least the worst in my 21 years following the team) there is hope in the near-future.
  14. Not off to a great start. I hope I'm wrong. One thing I'll say was Hill had some commitment issues and didn't love the game so much. Like Darron Lee, he was a smart guy that knew how to "manipulate" the team into believing they had great character. Showed up to his pre-draft visit in a suit, well spoken, etc. - but also was a partier, liked psychedelic drugs, and wasn't giving 100% in his rehab. When you're a raw player and you don't put in 100% on the little things- you'll always remain raw. I want Mims to be good and we need him to be good but I'm just not all that confident. He turns 23 tomorrow. Due to the pandemic and injury he's missed tremendous amounts of valuable time. He's probably going to be limited to 10-12 games this year, barring further injury. When you consider that only 45% of 2nd round receivers end up panning out, the odds were already stacked against him. Obviously this is a bit of sampling bias, but the glimmer of hope the Jets have is that his peers are dealing with the same... Tee Higgins: 4-of-4 games, 12 receptions, 152 yards, 2 TDs - missed time in TC with hamstring injury, has seen an uptick in production Michael Pittman: 3-of-4 games, 9 receptions, 73 yards - on IR with calf injury, wasn't playing great prior to injury Laviska Shenault: 4-of-4 games, 16 receptions, 191 yards, 1 TD - no injures and has been a true playmaker as a rusher and receiver KJ Hamler: 3-of-4 games, 6 receptions, 78 yards - missed time throughout training camp with hamstring injuries Chase Claypool: 3-of-3 games, 6 receptions, 151 yards, 1 TD - big time playmaker in a reserve role Van Jefferson: 4-of-4 games, 5 receptions, 76 yards - has seen his snaps decrease each week and has only played 11 in the past 2 games. Bottom-line: Jets need to get this guy on the field and give him a fair evaluation. You can't expect him to become a stud overnight, but you want to be sure that at the very least you can count on him as a major part of your offense in 2021.

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