Ecmic

I was gonna say, if the rigging is so ingrained that it’s “obvious”, the troves of data and trends that would necessarily be needed to reveal that “obviousness” would be so overwhelming that even a casual fan could use those trends and data to make simple, repeatable predictions that would make themselves and/or friends/loved ones unfathomably wealthy. I’m doing some research to identify and reveal such bettors now. So far, no luck.

He’s proven himself capable in high leverage situations. One of his remaining shortcomings is his decision-making in low-leverage 3rd and 9s, where he sometimes still doesn’t assess risk well and tries to do too much. Anyway, he’s got a good enough head on his shoulders as well as unencumbered athletic ability, and has well-enough put to bed any question of desire or drive, to shed the label of being a system QB.

If the Colts don’t go for two the first time, then they wouldn’t have gone for two the second time (which they converted). No team would go for two, down 27-26, with a lot of time left on the clock. Going for two the first time didn’t lose the Colts points. It ended in a wash.

A lot of this simply isn’t true. It could be a given, at this moment in time, that the Pats will go 0-9 the rest of the way, and they’d STILL be worse than even money to get the number one pick. And realistically it’s unlikely the Pats go 0-9 the rest of the way, anyway.

No it was added the day after the photos were taken, which is why I previously said the timeline worked in the Titans' favor (but its pretty... curious... timing in my opinion). However, if the Titans were practicing on September 30th, I would bet that they were practicing AFTER October 1st as well, when the new guidelines were issued. The Titans social media reaction these past few hours hints at an active, continued disregard for NFL guidelines. We only know of the September 30th gathering because a Tennessee reporter put his email out live on the radio for scoops. We wouldn't know about it otherwise, though I bet the NFL was fully aware. Makes me question a little what else the NFL is fully aware of, but the public is not.

You could be right. What I think will occur really has no bearing on what will actually happen. It'll boil down to whether or not the NFL views this as "not a big deal". I will say that there must be some reason that the NFL listed game forfeiture in their punishment guidelines.

Yeah it's just a guess and very well might not happen, but it's not going to be because the NFL thinks their own position is illogical. I'll say the timeline does work in Titans' favor, but I don't doubt that the Titans were doing this post-October 1st too, and if info on that comes out...

They're gonna be forfeiting their next game, at least. They actively decided to put NFL operations at risk after twice being explicitly told not to.

Photos of players, reportedly including Tannehill, practicing at a local high school. Game forfeiture incoming... https://www.paulkuharsky.com/news/titans-broke-protocols-gathered-for-a-workout-last-week

It could be that Allen is irregularly far behind the development curve. Small-time high school, then community college, then a red-shirt year, then two years at Wyoming were his lead-up to the NFL. It's likely that, on Draft Day 2018, he'd never in his life had the quality of coaching/reps that many five-star recruits get while in high school.

I do not care about the quality of his opponents. Allen had two things he absolutely needed to work on this year - his decision-making and his accuracy (especially deep-ball). These are things that can be evaluated independent of the defenses he's faced. It's a simple truth that Allen is consistently making throws he wouldn't have hit a year ago, and he's improved on his ability to read and stay on progression, especially when facing pressure. And he's making far fewer mistakes. Since year one, he's shown the ability and desire to attack his deficiencies, which is the most that can be asked of a young QB. Sorry to some, but his improvement can't be simplified to "DeFenSeS!".

There’s a bit of discounting going on here and there regarding Allen’s own impact on his personal development. Yes, he’s been the beneficiary of great coaching, but coaching is only useful up to the point that the player wants to put in the work to get better. Allen has improved each year because he’s competitive as f*** and doesn’t want to lose, and doesn’t want to be outworked. case in point: his deep ball has dramatically improved since last year. He makes better decisions on deep throws, and is more accurate on the deep throws he chooses to make. His coaching has remained pretty much the same year-over-year. His improvement is largely about his recognition of an area that needed work, and then putting in the hard f***ing work to go out and improve. People rag on him for his boneheaded plays, but those plays are a direct reflection of how much Allen “wants it” (his words). He goes hard on the field because it matters to him, alot; do you think that kind of ethic doesn’t translate to how he approaches practice and reps as well??? His teammates see it, and they’ve expressed their desire to go hard for him, because they know he’s ALWAYS going to go hard for them (their words). Allen’s shown that fire since Day 1. He still holds a legit grudge against Fresno State for not giving the local kid a chance. Guys don’t go from Fresno State rejects to NFL MVP talk simply because of “coaching”. Allen’s competitive fire and drive to be the best he can be has been instrumental in his continued, year-over-year development. Does Darnold show that fire? Isn’t that at least a little important in quarterback evaluation?

I don’t know, things that I’d assume would benefit a quarterback in the rain - like a strong arm, the ability to scramble and extend plays, and strong grip - are all things that Allen has. I think I’d actually prefer to have Allen in bad weather than in good weather.

I think the difference is most evident in the fact that the Browns never actually built a winning foundation before they were propped up as next-in-line. And, honestly, as far as “next-in-line” goes I’ve yet to see anyone pick the Bills to make it out of the divisional round.

Bills secondary is at a minimum top three in the league, with most pieces with three years of continuity. They’re going to be in midseason form back there. The Jets could try to throw early and often, but I gotta believe that if “sloppy” play is involved (and the consensus is play WILL be sloppy), it won’t be from the Bills... Teams can run on the Bills, and the Bills have a lot of turnover up front. The Jets could exploit that, but for their new offensive line. So... bad matchup for the Jets.

Lol good one.

Allen, surprisingly, actually has a good turnover rate. Very mediocre Y/A, as does Darnold. His whole problem is he’s absolutely horrible on long throws. Don’t know if that’ll be fixed, but I wouldn’t preclude it and personnel will help. Also dialing back his super-high deep ball rate might help. He’s top tier in the league in midrange, but won’t find lasting success without better long ball, as his ground game won’t spring eternal. Jury’s still out, when looking at those stats.

If 75% playoff odds are vastly too high, what’d be a more realistic number? 50%? Less?

Yeah I think you’ve gotta look at end-of-year record. With the one caveat being you disregard the head-to-head result. Otherwise, you end up with true statements like “Allen didn’t beat an over-.500 Cowboys team because Allen beat the Cowboys.” if the Jets beat the Bills twice this year and the Bills end up 8-8, I think the Jets can claim they twice beat an over-.500 team in the Bills.

Yeah the open beer thing makes no sense. are we really to believe that five cops (including one DUI expert) huddled together and came to this conclusion: ”So guys, we’ve got an NFL player here. Whatever we do from here on out is gonna get a lot of public scrutiny, so mind your p’s and q’s. This guy just blew a 0.00 on his breathalyzer, but I think he got something in his system. We’re gonna arrest him. That’s a big move here, so we gotta get all the evidence we can to make sure the charge sticks. Save the dash-cam footage, and take him to get his blood drawn. Now, he’s got an open beer in his front seat. That right there is a rock solid charge by itself, and’ll go a long way to show probable cause for his arrest. Here’s what we’re gonna do with that. We’re gonna ignore it. We’re not gonna put it into evidence, and we’re not gonna tack on the charge of driving with an open container. We’re gonna put all our eggs into the blood test, because that’s the best way to ensure this thing doesn’t totally blow up in our face. Cowboys on three!” Nah, the more likely explanation is the one that’s been reported, that the beer can was empty, and Oliver was using it as a spittoon for his chew.

His blood was drawn before he was booked. What’s this about “weeks later”? https://montgomerycountypolicereporter.com/buffalo-bills-defensive-tacle-busted-fordwi-by-montgomery-county/ There is zero chance he’ll be suspended.

But what's the NFL going to suspend Oliver for? Transporting a legal weapon while sober?

No the gun was there. There was no technicality that says the gun wasn't there. The police concluded that the gun was 100% legal. Absent any other crime, Oliver had 100% right to have that gun in his car.