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bitonti

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Everything posted by bitonti

  1. I'm not going to go point by point as I'm on a phone and when I was born these things had rotary dials But to answer the last question 1st I see like 5-6 wins barring a huge year from Zach. It really is a direct coorelation between his completion percent and win total. I see like 59-60 from ZW which is both a great improvement and not enough to move the dial To your broader point what happens in past years does in fact have relevance. The fact that the pats have run a successful program for two decades informs the patriots of 2022. Even without TB12 that team blew the Jets out in 2021 It's not like science but these guys getting on a plane, flying to Denver where the air is thinner and playing an NFL game can be informed by the past head to head record. Seattle for example is a 3000 mile road trip to the leagues 2nd loudest stadium The past loudness informs the future loudness etc. It's not perfect agreed but it's the only data we have. It's not a fluke they've never won in Philly. It's history. It does not repeat but sometimes it rhymes
  2. I'm not going to say that Kenny Pickett is amazing or anything but he's playing in the stadium he played college in... It should be an easier transition than most. Full disclosure I placed under bets on the Jets the last two seasons and was treated by a post new years bonus. This year I have not bet yet because the 5.5 does honestly seem tight. I'd rather it gets to 6. If another team loses their fqb to injuries they can win some of these "unwinnable" games But you're basically hoping for good Jets luck in that scenario and luck favors the prepared. The jets are still a super young team with new guys all over the roster they are not that prepared for some of these road trips You said it best these are low information bets and there are in fact more wins predicted than are possible over all 32 teams. Sharps want the most information possible. Also agree if you're going to bet on the Jets for Pete's sake do it Sunday morning getting the most points possible. Look at the game day in actives. Go in facing forward. That's not to say they won't be better. This Jets team might cover every week and still lose over 10 games. Betting the Jets as home dogs week 1 is way different than these season long over unders. Maybe Lamar holds out etc
  3. The 30 million wr would have been offset by the loss of the extra first Rd pick and maybe the extra second Rd pick. Paying 3 first rders is how the Jets used that cash It's not proven that they signed everyone they wanted. They low balled everyone but laken and some guys accepted and others did not Yes They could have extended mosely except that he sucks and is an atrocity in the 4-3 To put this into real terms the Jets are like a home owner that pays cash for the new roof when they could have gotten a line of credit and used the cash for something else. That's opportunity cost. By not having any players under long term money (none) they opt out of the credit game. But other rosters have a higher functional spend because they move signing bonuses around etc It's OK. They are not really trying to win. Woody just wants to keep the lights on and cash those TV checks
  4. The way to make money with over under bets is to bet the under on the Jets Done correctly, Sports betting is not comfortable. It's very easy to make a bet on something that you want to have happen Bet with the house, it's unpopular but it is smart. Betting with your heart is a losing strategy over time The emotional hedge (patent pending). Worst case you bought the winning season
  5. The Jets have not scored a point in Denver in like a decade Even with jacoby brisset starting the browns are better than the Jets at nearly every possible position. The myles Garrett vs Mekhi Becton matchup is especially scary, Garrett had 2.5 sacks against him 2 years ago Playing at Pittsburgh has also been a nightmare for the franchise The dolphins don't scare you? Waddle and hill are two top ten wr and Tua who everyone around here makes fun of, completes almost 70 percent of his passes The patriots own the Jets and without getting into the weeds the Jets have not won a division game in 3 years The Jets also have 59 losses in the last 5 years most in the league (tied with the giants) The "who's their best player" thread proves they have no game changers at all, no star power to speak of. Quinnen Williams is in fact their best player. And that's kind of a sad statement The most worrying position to me is place kicker. I don't know how a run heavy team is supposed to win games without a reliable kicker The 5.5 over under is based on the Jets crap roster, the historically bad defense (terrible run defense) their actual schedule and the difficulty of the afc. Saying they should win 8 or 10 or 12 is just dart throwing
  6. They could have used the extra money on competent linebackers or a kicker. There was a lost opportunity cost and that happens every year This is one way Woodrow saves on costs. By not finding the bag for existing players. Another way is by hiring first time head coaches and first time general managers that learn (and make mistakes) on the job Another way is by keeping the worst turf in football
  7. The difference is that the time to free up the 5 million was in March. There's no good free agents left
  8. this is revisionist / inaccurate history the Gold standard did not work very well in fact there were boom/bust recessions every 2-5 years. There were also depressions. the boom bust cycle was thought to be baked into capitalism There were 32 recessions/panics between 1785 and the Great Depression. There were also three depressions: in 1807, 1873 and 1920. That's a major event every 4 years for those keeping track at home. the federal reserve was created in 1913 and Franklin D Roosevelt took the country off the gold standard in 1933. Nixon abandoned the last vestiges in 1971 but the country had not been on a true gold standard for decades. Why? because you can't use Keynesian tools to print more gold in times of trouble. or you can't delete the gold that's out there in times of hot velocity. the supply of money is out of the hands of the government. and that's actually bad. since the US Has been off the gold standard, recessions happen less frequently- there has been 13 recessions in about 90 years (one every 7 years) and not been another depression since 1930. had we been on the gold standard in 2008, the collapse would have certainly become another great depression (massive bank failures/auto industry failing without bailout) currencies need to be managed and it turns out tying one's entire economic system to a mineral that grubby overalls-wearers drag out of the ground is not a great model and there's actual history to prove this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States and, just for fun, if we imagine a world where the US is brought back to the gold standard, there would be trillions of dollars that would have be deleted/destroyed. Because there isn't enough gold to support the current economy. It would be a massive destruction of wealth.
  9. there's a famous story about how Mark Zuckerberg has a mortgage. The Bank gave him a 1% rate (less than inflation) essentially paying him to take their money that's the US government and the deficit. It's a billionaire who takes a 6 million dollar mortgage because he can (and because it would be negligent not to, the cash could be used for other activities) And the assets are more than natural resources (land and oil etc). It's also the Army assets, the nukes, the robot on mars, the stealth bombers, the james webb telescope and also cultural assets like streaming reality shows and whenever beyonce decides to release a song (yes im old). The US is borrowing against all these nebulous ideas when it issues debt and the market for 30 year T bills is as strong as ever. Because in part the US has never defaulted on said debt. Some countries like China have only existed in their current form since the 1950's and that old debt was defaulted upon. Meanwhile Bitcoin (and it's derivative s--tcoins) are based on nothing real. There's no FDIC to reimburse you when the exchange gets hacked. There is a central banker (satoshi) he's just AFK. the real truth is had I bought bitcoin when it was 300 bucks I almost assuredly would have lost my wallet, my passcode or whatever USB device that stores them. I would be like that poor Welsh dude trying to do an archeological dig in the local dump. Because I am a jackass. Like most people. I can't be responsible for my own money storage. I buy Jets jerseys get someone sober to watch that account number. It's the same reason why we don't bury cash in coffee cans in the backyard. this whole thing is why banks were invented. It's not some grand conspiracy it's because money needs management and currencies need a central plan
  10. The word fiat currency is the dog whistle. It's used to distinguish between the gold standard and the paper currency that has been used since the American revolution. All currency is worth what people believe it to be worth. The word fiat has no real meaning unless we're talking about the Italian compact car
  11. The second Elon musk tows a gold asteroid into orbit the entire market goes kerplunk Everything is a matter supply and demand Gold is valuable because people demand it for their wedding rings and what not. It's valuable because of tradition. There's nothing particularly special about gold or silver or paper. These are media that people assign value to for arbitrary reasons Like diamonds. A fat clear Rock is worth 100k if it's set right and cut right and put in a fancy platinum band. But the market is controlled by de beers. On the secondary market that used ring loses like 75 percent of the retail value. And if de beers emptied their vaults diamonds become like quartz pebbles, pretty but worth very little At least a diamond can be used for a drill bit and gold can be used as a electric contact. We can write on paper The crypto currencies are literally collapsing as we speak
  12. Is that when ponzi schemes were invented? There's a central control of bitcoin btw. His name is Satoshi and if even one Btc comes out of his wallet the whole thing goes belly up Even more than it has so far You're talking about the loss of usd purchasing power? How about the loss of Btc purchasing power this year compared to last? Good luck with your bag holding I'm sure that will go well for you
  13. Why is gold worth anything? It's shiny soft and conducts electricity It's not suitable for tools or weapons It's because of tradition. There's no intrinsic value for anything As for the value of the US dollar yes it makes sense that it would fall since the peak of the American empire in the 1960s Just because a currency goes up or down does not mean that it has no value. In fact currency can only inflate or deflate it never stays exactly stable Bitcoin is not a currency. It's a risk investment like a tech stock
  14. people who use the word "Fiat" currency are announcing in public they just don't understand modern economics what's your suggestion, go back to the gold standard? cmon money is always worth what people think it's worth and it doesn't matter if that money is made of gold, paper, beads or digital bytes
  15. Jets fans don't want to talk about Zach Wilson's injuries so we pretend they don't exist the guy tore both labrum in college and missed a month with a knee last season it's fair to wonder if ZW will ever make it through a full 17 game season
  16. the idea that the Jets drafted Zach Wilson 2 overall to build a top 5 rushing attack feels less than ideal I mean, they could have gotten anyone for that manager job the Eagles and ravens BTW have a rushing attack led by their QB, something ZW can't do. as for the Physical ability of Zach he does in fact have an elite arm, throwing 60 MPH last year it's the rest of his body that's suspect, especially his knees, shoulders and any other flimsy joint that causes him to miss time the dude missed a month as a rookie it's going to be durability that's his biggest weakness, throughout his career the arm is awesome the rest of him is shockingly below average
  17. there's also this stat about Zach Wilson had more guys stopped at the 1 yard line than any other QB these are true facts and entertaining mind games but it all falls under "the lady doth protest too much" don't use semantics to prove that Zach Wilson is going to be awesome. just win a damn division game. QB rating, completion percentage, blah blah blah the only stat that anyone should care about is wins. and as the 2 overall pick it's his job to elevate the bums around him, not everyone else's job to be perfect.
  18. Those tackles were like all 5 yards down field Cj mosely sucks in this defense, and last year's defense was the worst in franchise history
  19. Leo in 2015 was a mistake we all said this dude sucks and he becomes like a 10 sack a year guy with the Giants they could have resigned Foley. That dude was legit. Quinnen is the next guy deserving of money. there are very few players deserving of money but there are a few and if you give these guys money, ironically, the cap provides relief allowing them to sign more players the Jets operate like a person who refuses to get credit cards because they can't trust themselves. meanwhile they are leaving the points on the table and their credit score is in the trash can
  20. Max Mitchell is at least one year in a pro strength program away from being a starter. Maybe 2. He's talented and flashes... there's a lot to like in pass pro but MM does not have the functional strength at this point to be an actual starter Of course He could prove me wrong but that's what I got from his senior bowl tape
  21. MO wilk was like 10 years ago I wanted cam Heyward. How hard is it to draft iron heads son? As for Fants money... To pay this player in cash they lose the opportunity cost of the free cap space in the near term... That money could be used on agents in March At the extreme end, Its how new Orleans operates and manages to make moves despite being 80 mil over the cap going into the offseason. They extend Ryan ramcyzk and boom cap space I'm not saying do that to the extent new Orleans does but to not pay anyone, ever, is penny wise and pound foolish
  22. We're BMI brothers My collection has been pared down to Gastineau and klecko. But at one point I owned a Drob (lol), Santana moss, DBrick, and a chrebet If you want to instantly fit in with other Jets fans, rock a Wayne chrebet. Retired players can never let you down
  23. it's not a popular opinion but I believe people should wear their body type like if you showed up for football practice, what number would they give you a big obese dude wearing a ZW 2 just looks odd. I know that makes me like canceled or whatever add it to the list so to answer your question... yes we can split a Becton
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