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Everything posted by isired

  1. Right, but looking good or great against inferior talent doesn't make you inferior. If Pat Mahomes goes out and dominates Manalapan HS JV, he's still Pat Mahomes. If you didn't know him prior, you'd have a harder time being sure of how good he is, but he'd still be exactly how good he is. His point is, the lesser competition doesn't make him a lesser prospect. He might be, or he might be the best prospect. It's just harder to evaluate, whereas a blue chip prospect vs blue chip competition is easier to see what he is.
  2. It's not really a knock or a red flag, it just means it's harder to evaluate. I have a friend in baseball scouting who told me this, applies just as well here: This is a fact, a known fact to scouts and other player personnel people: Playing a lower level of competition doesn't mean a player is not as good as his counterpart. It means it's harder to evaluate his talent. You have to look harder at the technique, the physical traits, the great plays, the mistakes. That's all.
  3. I thought they dropped too far (11 to 20) and missed out on a lot of talent at positions of need (OL and LB/EDGE) but if they knew they were going WR, you can question which WR but they didn't miss out on anyone between 11 and 20. You could argue that the Giants still got the guy they wanted too and got a whole lot more. If they wanted EDGE all were still available at 11 so they were OK not going EDGE, it looks to me like they knew they were going WR. Once Smith went off the board at 10 they may have had similar grades on a Toney/Bateman etc. but still ended up having their pick of all remaining WR at 11 down at 20.
  4. Yeah in today's NFL there's a considerable gap between Fields being the 5th rated QB and Fields going 32. Simms doesn't see a team in the middle of the round that wants a QB? Has he seen teams jump back into R1 to grab a QB that fell so they get the 5th year option? Sure he has.
  5. Yes, please only draft immediate starters. Don't know why all teams don't do this, but we definitely should. Also, since we're only going to draft starters: we have 9 picks - let's trade down a few times so we can get 14-15 starters instead of 9. Thanks.
  6. Can't see them using a first round pick on a RB for this O, it would be out of character for the O (if they're thinking at all like Lynch/Shanahan) and for JD. In his 4 drafts / 6 R1 picks, Lynch w/ Shanahan drafted 2 offensive players, an OT and WR (Aiyuk late). The only RB they drafted in 4 years was Joe Williams in R4 2017. 2015 Bears (JD Director of college scouting) drafted a WR R1, and a R4 RB. 2016-2019 Eagles (JD VP Player Personnel) drafted OT DE QB in R1 and drafted 2 RB, R2 & R4 (passed up Josh Jacobs R1 to take Miles Sanders R2 2019 and Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Kareem Hunt, D'Onta Foreman, James Conner, Samaje Perine, Tarik Cohen and Joe Williams to take Donnel Pumphrey R4 2017) 2020 NYJ drafted OT R1 and passed up Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the only R1 RB taken with the last pick in the round. Also passed up 4 RB rounds 2-4 before taking RB (Perine) R4. I don't get this 'we have horrible luck with...' stuff. We haven't drafted a CB in R1 since 2013, we're deciding what positions JD is capable of drafting based on Dee Milliner 2013 and Kyle Wilson 2010? If so, look at it this way, we're batting .333 with 1st round CBs that are likely to he HOFers in the last 15 years, that's waaaaaay above average. It's a big stretch to make even the kind of comparisons I did above, but at least our current GM / HC / OC have a connection to those drafts. JD was a low-ranked member of the player personnel department in Baltimore when the 3 guys mentioned above were drafted. Low-ranking PP guys are a dime a dozen in the NFL. He was probably scouting guys that were never going to get drafted prior to the Revis draft, if he was even doing that.
  7. Greg Newsome or AVT. I feel like there's a good chance only one of the two will be available at 23.
  8. I don't doubt that there are aspects of Fields' game that he doesn't like, but what he likes or doesn't like doesn't really matter when it comes to predicting where he'll get drafted. For him to say that Fields falls to 32 would mean not only that SF doesn't like him at 3 but several others between 3 and 15, then NE, WFT, CHI, et al. Making an extreme statement like Fields is going to fall to 32 is done to generate clicks. Just my opinion.
  9. An NFL Player Personnel employee evaluates players for a living. Simms engages with his audience for a living. And online, that engagement is measured in clicks/views. That's his job.
  10. Can't see Fields getting past NE at 15, WAS at 19 or CHI at 20 but if he drops out of the top 20, they or someone else with an older QB1 or one they're unsure of will jump back into the first. ATL, CAR, PIT, etc. If he fell to 32, the Bucs would be dumb not to take him.
  11. Excellent summary. Really one of the more enjoyable movies of this type I've seen in a while.
  12. No only that, but what kind of season would he have to have to turn down a 1yr/$18M offer straight up? They most likely could get bring him back for less, even if incentives bring it up to 18. And if he has that type of season, something crazy like a deepnplayoff run or SB, you franchise him once and if he repeats you sign him long term.
  13. All good. Whether the Jets draft him or not, the OP is not likely to have anything to do with him.
  14. I guess yiu could say Q Williams or Becton but really there's a pretty small body of work. It's probably Adams and that also says a lot about our last 5 drafts.
  15. Totally agree- it should be a lot closer to what he was doing in college. If he's going to be a productive pro, this is the situation that could unlock that. If not, it's probably not going to happen.
  16. ...and the media and fans for the over-the-top reaction to one rehearsed throw vs. air from a scripted pro day. Kalil is going to have USC-colored glasses on regarding Darnold regardless - Jim Miller still thinks Connor Cook was the most game-ready QB in the 2016 draft* - but he really didn't shade Wilson. All Wilson did was what he was supposed to do - practice his scripted throws and repeat them well at his pro day. *As I write that I was thinking the 2016 draft really was a stinker for QBs, other than Dak, with where Goff and Wentz are now and really Jacoby Brisset being the next-best IIRC.
  17. I've seen the 'bigger Matthew Stafford' comp but I think that he and Rivers aren't good comps, and certainly not good ceilings, for Lawrence. Lawrence's mobility and athleticism makes him more Andrew Luck or Deshaun Watson than either of those two.
  18. It doesn't seem like it would be that rare amongst teams that go through 5 year losing streaks, which is most at one point or another.. QBs and HCs are pretty much married, a QB will get a HC fired and a new HC will want his own QB etc. Lather, rinse, repeat.
  19. People driving under the speed limit in the left lane. 2 trucks side by side on a 2 lane highway that can't maintain the speed limit. When we teach our destination and I get out of the car and start to go where we're going and you sit in the car fiddling with your phone or whatever so I have to wait to lock the car.
  20. Neither of those statements are true of QBs. Data on QB bust rates is popular. Here's one - from 2000 to 2017, 71% of top 10 drafted QBs have lasted 5+ years. Half have thrown for 4000+ yds, 75% for 3200+ yds at least once. Now I wouldn't say that's makes the greatest argument for top 10 QBs, but it also isn't in line with "most great college QB's wash out in the NFL." Here's a list of small school drafted QBs, how many are in the HOF? How many were All-Pro? https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/Best-FCS-small-school-quarterbacks-in-NFL-college-football-history-Trey-Lance-Carson-Wentz-Phil-Simms-Joe-Flacco-146757472/#146757472_9 I think no HOF and one, Rich Gannon, All-Pro.
  21. You forgot Pennington vs Brady Well, if I'm averaging, I just found my disqualified low value. Plenty of high values though. That's the worst review of a player I've ever seen.
  22. They're not just looking for 'does it affect him now' - they're looking at the quality of the repair and his body's response to the repair over time to predict if he's likely to have issues in the future. Just a guess here, but I can't find any mention of the surgeon in any of the old articles, so it likely wasn't a well-known 'expert'. Doesn't mean it wasn't done right, just that the teams would probably feel better about it if it was one of the handful of guys that does this on NFL (or NFL-bound) QBs and other pro athletes.
  23. It's a pretty kevel-headed take that is nowhere near the rip of the Jets that the OP makes it out to be. Nowhere does she say it's a "great" move for the Panthers. Her praise of the move is riddled with 'ifs' regarding Darnold's play - and she calls it "on paper, an incremental upgrade for the Panthers". I think her assessment is accurate, they gave up little if he remains a viable starter or becomes a FQB, but your translation of it is not. One thing I agree with 100%, Darnold is the biggest winner - moving into a starting role with more talent on offense and (apparently) the intention to pick up his option.
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