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Everything posted by SouthernJet

  1. Before Gase called a Jet play https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837130-stats-dont-lie-adam-gase-is-the-wrong-coach-for-sam-darnold-and-the-jets
  2. Unreal how everything happened just like that said. Still short of sticks, players play well when they leave Gase who is a inept 'position coach AT BEST' and that being kind https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837130-stats-dont-lie-adam-gase-is-the-wrong-coach-for-sam-darnold-and-the-jets Stats Don't Lie: Adam Gase Is the Wrong Coach for Sam Darnold and the Jets MIKE TANIERMAY 23, 2019 Seth Wenig/Associated Press It's 3rd-and-10. Is your quarterback throwing a five-yard pass? And are you happy about it? If so, there's a chance you may be Adam Gase. Gase has been making a lot of news in recent weeks, but let's set aside the new Jets head coach's penchant for Shakespearean boardroom power plays or the passive-aggressive negging of Le'Veon Bell, which already appears to be underway. Gase's primary objective is to develop Sam Darnold into a Pro Bowl-caliber franchise quarterback. If he does that, no one will care about what happened this offseason. If he doesn't, being Mr. Congeniality to his co-workers won't save him in the long run. A deep dive into Gase's record in three seasons as the Dolphins head coach and offensive architect revealed he may not be the right coach to develop Darnold—or any young quarterback. The problem is easy to summarize: Gase's system threatens to choke out Darnold's potential by ordering him to throw too many too-short passes. Videos you might like Gaming the ratings It doesn't take a degree in mathematics to figure out just how mediocre the Dolphins offense was in three years under Gase. The Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL in yards and 17th in points during their 2016 wild-card season. They then dipped to 25th in yards and 28th in points in 2017 (when Jay Cutler was coaxed out of the broadcast booth to replace the injured Ryan Tannehill) and 31st and 26th last year (when Brock Osweiler replaced the injured Tannehill for a handful of midseason games). But while the Dolphins' seasonwide offensive totals were generally bad, the individual passing results of Miami quarterbacks were usually acceptable. Tannehill ranked 12th in the NFL in passer rating (93.5) in 2016 and 20th (92.7) last year; Cutler ranked 23rd (80.8) in 2017. Those figures aren't great, but they don't point to passing efficiency as a major problem for Gase's offenses. Tannehill had a higher passer rating last year than Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, Matthew Stafford, Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum and others; his rating was 15.1 points higher than Darnold's rating of 77.6. If you have read this far into a statistical article about Adam Gase, you don't need to be told passer rating is an outdated, poorly designed measure of quarterback performance. Tannehill drops all the way to 32nd in the NFL in 2018, between Lamar Jackson and Josh Rosen, when we switch to ESPN's QBR. Tannehill also drops to 32nd last year when we use Football Outsiders' DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average. Even when Tannehill led the Dolphins to the playoffs in 2016, he ranked 25th in DVOA and 24th in QBR. The discrepancy between advanced metrics like DVOA and QBR and basic stats is telling. Something made the raw passing stats for Dolphins quarterbacks look half decent for the last three years, even when those quarterbacks were playing poorly and limiting the offense. That "something" was Gase's love of the short pass in long-yardage situations. 2nd-and-wrong, 3rd-and-wrong Let's use the Football Outsiders premium database to drill deeper into Gase's play-calling tendencies. Specifically, we'll focus on two very important game situations: 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long. "Long" means seven-plus yards in both situations: 2016: The Dolphins offense ranked 26th on 2nd-and-long and 14th on 3rd-and-long. 2017: The Dolphins offense ranked 32nd in 2nd-and-long and 26th on 3rd-and-long. 2018: The Dolphins offense ranked 31st on 2nd-and-long and 28th on 3rd-and-long. Three years, only one ranking (barely) above league average in long-yardage situations, the rest well below average and an overall downward trend. That's not a good look for Gase's situational play calling. If you were looking for a quarterback to complete a good percentage of his third-down throws without achieving the first-down payoff most teams desire, you couldn't have done much better in recent years than Ryan Tannehill.Darron Cummings/Associated Press/Associated Press Those rankings are based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, which assigns a weight to every single play executed in a given situation, based on how much (or little) the result of that play increases (or decreases) a team's chance of winning. One thing DVOA excels at is removing the fluff from raw statistics. The system rewards, say, two-yard runs on 3rd-and-1 but provides only tiny rewards for 10-yard passes on 3rd-and-15. Passer rating and final stat totals can be fooled by dump-offs that lead directly to punts, but DVOA cannot. That's an important point to keep in mind considering the somewhat rosy picture traditional numbers can paint. According to Pro Football Reference, Tannehill completed 36 of 55 passes on 2nd-and-long (65.5 percent) for 375 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions in 2018. Superficially, those are solid numbers. On 3rd-and-long, he was 24-of-45 (53.3 percent) with 287 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions: weak but not terrible in situations wherein leaguewide completion rates dip and interception rates increase. Cutler's raw numbers in 2017 long-yardage situations are slightly better than Tannehill's in 2018: a 69.7 percent completion rate (62-of-89) on 2nd-and-long and a 56.3 percent rate (36-of-64) on 3rd-and-long. Even Osweiler's long-yardage raw stats look good. Suspiciously good. Osweiler completed 63.6 percent (21-of-33) of his 2nd-and-long passes and a whopping 77.3 percent (17-of-22) of his 3rd-and-long passes last year. You may recall Osweiler played fairly well against the Bears and Lions before reverting back to stumblebum mode. But no, he didn't become Drew Brees on 3rd-and-long. Instead, Osweiler did what Cutler and Tannehill did in high-leverage situations in Gase's offense: He padded his stats with lots of failed completions. Failing forward The folks at Football Outsiders have been tracking "failed completions" for years. You can read the precise definition at the top of Bryan Knowles' article, but most fans know a failed completion when they see one: It's the two-yard pass in the flat on first down, the four-yarder on 2nd-and-10 and even the 14-yarder on 3rd-and-15. Under Gase's watch, Dolphins quarterbacks threw lots and lots of failed completions: 29.5 percent of Tannehill's completions last year were failed completions, ranking him 32nd among qualifying quarterbacks. Failed completions accounted for 16.7 percent of his total pass attempts, which ranked 29th. 28.1 percent of Cutler's completions and 17.4 percent of his attempts in 2017 were failed completions. Both figures ranked 25th among eligible quarterbacks. 29.9 percent of Tannehill's completions (31st) and 20.2 percent of his attempts (31st) were failed completions during the Dolphins' triumphant wild-card season. Known for his big arm, Jay Cutler excelled at throwing passes that would help the Dolphins' passing stats but not contribute to their ability to win games.Chris Trotman/Getty Images For comparison's sake, successful quarterbacks usually throw failed completions on about 20-23 percent of completions and 10-15 percent of attempts. The bottom of the failed completion list is historically the hangout of notorious check-down artists like Manning and Flacco, caretaker veterans like Brian Hoyer and rookies in survival mode throwing screens on 3rd-and-20. (Darnold was not among those rookies last year; more on that in a moment.) Football Outsiders also keeps track of the distances of both complete and incomplete passes on all third downs. The following results include short- and medium-yardage situations as well as 3rd-and-long, so when Tannehill threw a screen or swing pass on 3rd-and-4—which happened several times last year—that's also in the data: Tannehill threw short of the first-down marker on 52.8 percent of all third-down attempts last year, ranking 35th. Cutler threw short of the sticks on 54.5 percent of third downs in 2017, ranking 37th. His average throw on 3rd-and-longs that year was 3.7 yards short of the first-down marker, which is remarkable when you try to visualize it (on 3rd-and-10, Cutler was going out of his way to throw six- or seven-yard passes). Tannehill ranked 17th by throwing 41.9 percent of his passes in front of the sticks in 2016, his good season. Three seasons of data doesn't lie. Gase's Dolphins were terrible in long-yardage situations, and short passes on 2nd-and-long and 3rd-and-long both contributed to the problem and masked it by making the raw passing stats look better. Indefensible dink-and-dunking Quarterbacks themselves have a lot to do with whether deep receivers or the guys running the shallow drags get targeted on any given pass, of course. But four different veteran quarterbacks (Tannehill, Cutler, Osweiler and Matt Moore) contributed to these numbers. And Gase himself frequently emphasizes and defends his dink-and-dunk philosophy. Here he is justifying his love of the short pass in 2016, August and November, for example. Gase pointed out in 2016 that short passes lower sack totals, which is typically true. But Dolphins quarterbacks were sacked 13 times in 2nd-and-long situations last year. When defenses know what's coming and don't have to respect the downfield threat, it's easier for them to get to the quarterback. Gase has also noted, accurately, that the NFL gets more short pass-oriented every year. But Gase's teams have now been on the extreme, counterproductive vanguard of that trend for three seasons, producing below-average results. That could pose a huge problem for Darnold, whose encouraging rookie season was based partly on not doing the things Tannehill and Cutler did. Darnold threw failed completions on only 21.8 percent of his completions (ninth in the NFL) and 11.7 percent of his attempts (a remarkable fourth). Uniquely among rookie quarterbacks, Darnold took his share of downfield shots last season, and they were starting to pay off. The Jets finished just 30th in DVOA on 2nd-and-long (still better than Gase's Dolphins, despite fewer weapons and reps split between the rookie Darnold and undead zombie Josh McCown) but a respectable 15th on 3rd-and-long. A four-year study by Nate Weller of Sports Info Solutions proved rather conclusively that it's better to throw past the sticks on third down than dump the ball off: The slightly increased turnover risk on a downfield shot is more than offset by the potential reward. The Jets finally found a young quarterback who is both willing and able to be aggressive in long-yardage situations. But they have yoked him to a head coach who doesn't even want to take deep shots on second downs. Sam Darnold showed signs as a rookie that he was willing, and able, to throw deep, but with Adam Gase as his coach, history says he may not get the same green light this season.Charles Krupa/Associated Press By replacing a few big plays with lots of ineffective screens and drag routes, Gase could turn Darnold into an ineffective quarterback with decent-looking numbers—Tannehill, in other words. Worst Gase scenario (sorry) Before we wrap up, we should address some extenuating circumstances in Gase's favor to satisfy desperate Jets hopefuls, statistical sticklers and perhaps any Peyton Manning burner accounts. Gase's Dolphins had injury issues. The Dolphins ranked 30th in offensive adjusted games lost last year; Tannehill, receiver Albert Wilson, guard Josh Sitton and others missed significant time in 2018. Cutler himself was an injury replacement in 2017, and numerous starting linemen missed time that year. Tannehill and Cutler aren't exactly Steve Young and Joe Montana, and both tended to check down and rely too much on short passes before they worked with Gase. Tannehill cracked the all-time failed completion list in 2015, the year before Gase became the Dolphins head coach. Cutler made the same list in 2014, one season before Gase became his offensive coordinator for the Bears. The caveats come with a built-in worry: If Gase downshifts his offense into check-down mode at the slightest excuse—some guys are hurt, the quarterback isn't phenomenal—then he's more likely than ever to roll out the shallow crosses on second-and-15 for a team with a second-year passer, a weak offensive line and a thin skill-position corps. The numbers indicate Gase's offenses look great when Peyton Manning is in the huddle (as he was in 2013 and 2014) but weak-to-terrible given ordinary talent and somewhat typical NFL adversity. The same could be said of you or me, and no one is offering us complete control over Darnold's future. The best-case scenario for Darnold would be to develop into a daring downfield passer who makes the most of every completion. That's the exact opposite of a Gase quarterback. Which is why Gase looks like the wrong guy for the job.
  3. based on Johnsons past I highly doubt they would instigate this so early is season as it implies bad coaching. Then to fumble it by keeping him after 2 horror shows. What more was evaluation going to tell them that they didnt know about injuries, talent etc except can he get team prepared. Penalties and discipline is sad. CJ would rather be chaong snow in Europe than evaluating, trust me Article BEFORE Gase called a play for Jets after he was hired. I guess the genius has bad luck as we suffer same fate as Miami and Tannehill now efficient QB https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2837130-stats-dont-lie-adam-gase-is-the-wrong-coach-for-sam-darnold-and-the-jets
  4. Gase/Douglas share power. For owners to evaluate Gase early is season means Douglas went to owners to say Gase has to go. If Johnsons back off I fear we eventually lose Douglas over this as Gase obviously in over his head
  5. that is damn good when Kap went off rails with new girlfriend and prioritized activism over football. As far as Lamar this year, its week 3 so who cares and they played KC and 1st 2 games were blowout 30+ point scored by Ravens so I am sure they were playing conservative kill clock 4th Qtrs and again, its week 3 LOL I like the consistency of , My God, we have had in NY and he had in Miami rankings in the high 20s, 30s , smh It would be un Jet like if we lucked into getting Greg Roman. I hope Sam shows confidence boost and better play so we can use draft picks on non QB selections. I warn you though, if Sam continues trajectory and doesnt fix foot placement then,,, 2021 Sams 4th year, NEW coach, Douglas's 1st REAL year as GM with HIS head coach = Jets will have to use top pick on QB Roman likes.
  6. Jets making play for Harbaugh but 1% chance. Unless John Harbaugh resigns form Ravens after season, Greg Roman is a shoo-in to be named Jets HC. Great choice, worked in SF w/Kap (when he was good) and now Lamar Jackson. He changes his scheme to mesh with players skills and is innovative and changes ingame. Cant blame him for KC games LOL. It would be Douglas going to his Baltimore roots. The folks who trained him hired Roman. Main thing is Greg is 'regular Coord. not a wierd analytics, silent, moody type like Gase. He coaches and calls like normal football. I doubt he will run 98% of time up the middle on 2nd and 10 LOL We might even see 20 yard out passes and more mvement from Sam OR we will see if Sam shows no improvement w/Gase gone rest of 2020 thjat Jets use 1st Rd pick on a QB that Roman thinks better fits when he likes to do. His history is he likes to work with QBs who can scramble but strong arms.
  7. That is absolutely true based on the way Douglas has been rebuilding the team he has behind 2021 I think Gase/Douglas friendship overblown and he had a feeling based on when he saw in Miami that he was going to have to get a new coach in year three. that’s why he demanded six years you are right. he wanted four years like most new GMs get starting with HIS coach. I hear Greg Roman is the guy he had on Top of his list for awhile
  8. That is probably true. from what I’ve heard the two candidates are Harbaugh and Greg Roman both of those can be talked to via Douglas friendship with John Harbaugh of the Ravens and exGM and mentor Ozzie Newsome to gauge interest
  9. Here is why I think he is already fired. you don’t do a two week evaluation that everybody knows about and then get blown out looking horrible versus colts. even a victory over a horrible Denver team has neutered the coach. if the owners say “OK he was so bad we had to evaluate him after only three games into the season but now he’s OK” is just not believable that it would be done . I think he lost his job when Douglas demanded the owners fire him , then they bargained and said “well let’s evaluate for 2 weeks”, when they gave him two weeks I think the colts horror show was enough for them to politically fire him. even if they beat Denver they just say we took the two weeks as one entity and it wasn’t sufficient. I truly think he’s already fired and the Jets are either going to hire Harbaugh on Friday (unliked), and if they don’t do that they will name Gregg Williams interim coach and hire Greg Roman offensive coordinator of the Ravens in January (Most likely scenario as Douglas goes back to his Raven roots which actually is also for harbaugh as Douglas is close to them via the raven connection)
  10. The new coach is likely an interim coach so OK but big deal
  11. Lol. That’s the beauty of coaches. like Parcells told Leon Hess “there is no salary cap for coaches”
  12. I agree to a greater extent I think Sam immediately gets better by having his confidence lifted just by having Gase out of the building. if the new coach is good that’s a plus
  13. There is definitely something afoot I think they may be trying to get him before Michigan’s first game October 24. People forget that harbaugh is listed by Las Vegas as third most likely coach to get fired in Big Ten this year. he is on the hot seat because of all the Ohio State losses. it was also a rumor last year that he wanted back in the NFL. this is the perfect opportunity for him to get out before he gets fired
  14. harbaugh is in the mix. UMich 1st game oct 24 and rumor is he wants back to NFL
  15. i got news for you, the Jets dont have to tank to finish 0-16. They can earn it the old fashioned way
  16. josh rated last in nfl last year throeing 20 yards and longer patterns, bills smart, threw most out and went to short game, smart coaching,,adaptive
  17. with so many needs on Jets the clue is right in front of y'all. why waste 4th rd pick on QB Morgan unless front office had doubts? You get cheap vets to hold clipboards when your main qb is 24. Lets face it, Jets have doubts hence the high pick on qb when we had a million needs
  18. maybe I will apply for job pouring pancakes at Jets buffet , get fired and then next week i will be chef at 3 star Michelin NYC restaurant.. any other career inkling y'all have? quick go get hired and fired by JetFastPath Career Inc
  19. come on, Gregg proven commodity and MLBs are what stops those plays which we dont have. If GW not Douglas choice fine, we wait, but something has to be done and GW proven record of players bonding to him. We need a CEO HC who gains respect. Sadly Jets D isnt good enuf now to stop but I love how Bills adapted to Josh weaknesses,,Gase is like duhhh run its 2nd and long LOL
  20. This has now been shown that being fired, traded or released by Jets provides a proven boost to your career. I am applying for a gardening position tomorrow and then get fired and hopefully I will own a Flower Nursery by next week
  21. It is just horrid. They play basic crap ypu see since Pop Warner. No creativity. NOTICE that Josh Allen was WORST NFDL QB throwing routes 20+ yards in 2019. So what do Bills coaches do? Use his skills, dump most long routes, and go to dump offs, screens and 5-15 yard slants (John Brown). Would Gase ever be that thoughtful and smart? No, he is too arrogant to scheme to his players. Hell, even Belichick admitted ot altering to Cams strength.s I dont know who right coach is, but it is not Gase. The team has no heart cause they know Gase a dunce and they dont like him on top of that. If Douglas like job Gregg Williams did with Browns and from what I hear they think Hines Ward a young up and coming star coach I would fire Gase/Loggains/Vitt now, make GreggW HC/DC and promote Hines Ward to OffCoord. You watch the different attitude. We may lose but you watch heart and more innovative gameplan.. If Douglas has someone else in mid, well I guess we stuck with Gase until January. Go Jets,,,whoopie
  22. Some writers have a alert out for passing game effected due to winds. 20 MPH SUSTAINED winds with higher gusts in Buffalo today? Who does this hurt more? I say Defense should SPY Josh to take away scramble and force him to throw into wind
  23. My favorite player is Odell,,,,, FOR ME TO POOP ON
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