Sperm Edwards

After getting permission for courtship, the Jets have already asked for the maiden Rodgers's hand in marriage. She's happily accepted and already pronounced it to the whole town. Enter Rodgers' daddy, who's holding up the nuptials because he feels the dowry is inappropriately high. Daddy's unavoidable problem, though, is the Jets have already knocked up maiden Aaron, who's going to be starting to visibly show before you know it, and is due by the start of September. With all the good men taken, Daddy's not going to be able to find another suitable match for his pregnant daughter, who's not only already professed her sole interest in the first marriage suitor, but anyway threatens to kill herself before agreeing to marry another. If we threaten to marry another & leave his daughter with our bastard child it'll fool no one. So between now & the due date, this is happening; even if the dowry amount gets higher & even less appealing with each passing month.

Lost in all this is that the Jets are under no more pressure to initiate any theoretically-strategic talks with Jackson individually than they are to finalize things with Green Bay as a franchise. Contract talks have been at an impasse, he's been tagged all season, and requested a trade almost a month ago. No one bit. No one even had him in for an interview, so far as I'm aware. The biggest problem Jackson has is that he's representing himself. GMs can't even make casual small talk with the player's agent just to find out the bottom line request, while legitimately calling about different players the agent represents. Conversely, a GM makes a call Lamar Jackson (or whomever it is that takes his calls in this matter), and then even a just-curios question becomes "____ [team] has officially called Lamar Jackson and expressed interest..." -- btw that also presumes the other GMs haven't already heard his actual demands through the grapevine. All that's aside from reworking the offense to suit just him, which may not work if/when he's missing games, etc. Worse still is that Baltimore - in making the significant offer they already did - clearly doesn't want to part with Jackson. There's every likelihood they are willing to pay whatever the next-highest bidder would have, but with the numbers this high just don't want to get into a bidding war with themselves & end up paying - or in this case, guaranteeing - any more than absolutely needed to get the deal done. That they may be faced with a holdout a few years down the road, when this is no longer top-5 money, only adds to it. So, it's likely that no one's calling Jackson; let alone with a risk of being left at the altar after offering the sun & the moon if/when Baltimore matches it, resulting in the next QB - and the whole team - knows he's not the one the team actually wanted.

No way, it would like totally fool them & stuff!!

Murray got $103MM fully guaranteed at signing. There are implied effective guarantees beyond that, and injury guarantees above that fully-guaranteed amount as well, but if LJ is stating that Baltimore offered him $133MM fully guaranteed at signing, it's a safe bet there's more guaranteed money in that deal as well, whether for injuries or effective guarantees. While that much smaller number is 100% fully guaranteed at signing, in effect roughly double is implicitly guaranteed, unless this year they think he's so horrid - or that he'll never be what they'd hoped - that in March of next year they're willing to pay him $33MM+ (in new money) to play elsewhere in 2024, just to get out of guaranteeing even more (new) money in 2025. Further, they can't even do that unless he demonstrates he's back in playing condition in 2023 (without getting injured yet again), otherwise the injury guarantees would kick in through 2025 at a minimum (assuming he's finally healthy in/by 2024). The differences with Jackson are - unlike Murray - he once led the NFL in TD passes and TD pass percentage; he did so with a receiving corps that would have been the cause for excuses for many other young QBs; and after 5 seasons Jackson is a UFA, whereas Murray was extended after just 3 seasons. If they'd waited one more season you can bet they wouldn't have made the same deal. More succinctly (which isn't my nature), he's simply a better QB and a better football player in general. It's what every GM legitimately fears about a dual-threat QB whose game is no longer elite when the dual-threat'ness (or the elite level of dual-threat'ness) just isn't there anymore. Then throw in some (perhaps very warranted) concern @slats brought up, that a player who won't part with a maximum commission of 3%, to let the best of the best football contract negotiators take this on, may not be the type to leave any perceived money on the table later, if/when he no longer thinks his contract is high enough & wants to renegotiate for a big pay raise just 3 years in. So the team then is on the hook for 5 years of guarantees if the player wants it, but is denied the economy of scale if only 3 years of guarantees at that pay if the player demands/holds out for a raise.

Read it again. There will be a test on Friday.

If it could get done before this year's draft, where he's in camp the whole spring/summer, I could stomach maxing out at something like (chart value listed first): 100: swap 1sts this year (2 slots) 470-480: one of this year's 2nds (42 or 43; I wouldn't walk over it) ~25-30: a day 3 pick in '24 (worst case for GB should be a bottom-half 4th rounder, unless the Jets make the SB or something) ~10-15: another day 3 pick tbd in '25 if Rodgers plays >50% of the snaps in '24 (the main conditional part of the deal) Nominally GB could save some face by making the case it adds up to a #30-31 overall pick (i.e round 1) value. For the Jets it wouldn't feel anything like that, as it's spread over 3 seasons without actually giving up a 1st rounder who can be retained for a cheaper, 5th option season, and still retain picks in both rounds 1 and 2 this year (maybe more if they trade down from #13). Plus there's no chance the Jets end up forking over the #20 pick in '24 for a mega-expensive 1 & done season followed by a big, accelerated cap hit that same year. We're not there yet, though. As of today I'm still sticking to something like that without a 1st round swap, or with something involving Davis (if we're just going to sign OBJ anyway). If they want a big upgrade to next year's pick if we make the SB with Rodgers, yeah I'm on board with that. I don't know that Davis (even at just 28 yrs old) has much trade value at his full salary - and don't know how much GB specifically values him - but it won't be literally nothing, as they should want a veteran starting WR for Love, plus could recoup a comp pick for him if they let his contract expire. GB could/should also put a salary squeeze on him in late Aug with an opportunity to earn it back if he's healthy: they'd have this leverage, as no one else is offering Davis $10MM+ for just the 2023 season at that late stage of the offseason; either way they'd be in line for a comp pick if he isn't retained.

Typically that trade value is true for most rounds, where this year's pick is worth a round higher next year, but while it's not as cut & dry for getting next year's round 1 pick. Even less so when next year's 1st is projected to be a better class than the current one. Proceeding with the premise that they at least make the playoffs with Rodgers getting 50+% of the snaps - anything less than that and the whole trade is a disaster without any picks, for just the cap hit alone - you're effectively giving them next year's 1st. That's really where I have my biggest problem with the offer. It's not so much that it could include next year's 1, but rather how easily it upgrades to that 1. We could eke into the WC game with Rodgers missing 49% of the season (including the playoffs) and still owe GB a 1st rounder. That's just too much for what's potentially a one-year rental that simultaneously rescues their team - or more specifically, their GM - from a multi-season disaster. It's not the same as the team grudgingly trading a player over money, whom they'd otherwise like to retain. Both the player & GM want this divorce, and it matters. The Jets, meanwhile, can reach the playoffs with another QB in his place. I'm not laying $ down on it, but it's hardly far-fetched, since a combo of camel-backbreaking straws of OL injuries; Zach totally melting/shutting down beyond even game-manager use after the bye (with Saleh not pulling him before the 2nd NE game ended as it did); followed by White breaking like half a rack of ribs vs Buf, took a 6-3 likely WC spot start into an unlikely 1-7 tailspin thereafter. I wouldn't be on board with the team paying 2024's 1st round pick plus $60MM to turn a single season's post-bye collapse into a one-round WC appearance. It'd have to be better team/player results than that. If everything else was equal in terms of the money & bad blood, but Rodgers was merely 35 instead of 39, we'd all be more open to the compensation being higher, but everyone in the league sees this as a one-year rental that may not even be 50-50 to turn into a two-year rental.

They just restructured Tomlinson to pay $8MM of his salary as bonus, with the remaining $5MM fully guaranteed, so not only is his getting cut not likely, but it’d be among the most unlikely NFL events in the last 5 seasons. He is a 100% lock to make the team and, as long as he isn’t injured, will at a minimum open the season starting. Brown isn’t a lock either. More of a fallback starter, at least for now, which isn’t a bad position to be in as they head into the draft: capped at a non-guaranteed $9MM, he’s cheap for a veteran LT starter. If they take a LT at #13 next month, and said rookie looks like what they’d hoped at least in minicamp (or later in camp), then I’m not so sure Brown sticks at $9MM. They already made an offer to Orlando Brown earlier this month, so they’re clearly at least looking towards life beyond Duane Brown. There may be a pay cut offer, or even a trade (if someone gets desperate), but they’re also in no rush to jettison him as they can carry his as-is salary as long as needed even if that’s the plan. I’m always worried about injuries but $9MM is crazy money for depth. Maybe they keep him long enough to see if Becton makes it through August, and how Mitchell looks as well. I still think they may be leaning towards a veteran center, at least depending upon what pick they’re giving up this year. If it’s the day 2 pick they were going to otherwise target a center, then they sign Jones to tie them over for another year (or two, depending how quickly he may regress), and instead take a more developmental C/G prospect on day 3. Teams are able to reach the playoffs & beyond without starting a rookie center.

Of course it’s possible, but I think they’d have to come to him or he’s shooting himself in the foot. If he says anything other than, “Yeah, no secret at all we want him but I hired Joe to be the GM to make these decisions on what’s too much or too little to trade for or trade away any players,” then he’s hurting his own team. He may not be a football savant but he doesn’t need to be one to know that cheap, high draft picks are a valuable commodity to any team, and Rodgers being a very short term fix - the most expensive one in the league at that - makes it hard to part with them.

The "new here" sarcasm was with regard to your suggestion that I might merely retort with a [singular] last word. I think Johnson is staying out. He made the trip to CA to further convince Rodgers that they're all of one mind on their desire that he play here (instead of effectively vetoing a trade with retirement threats). Douglas has shown patience in terms of making trades, from Adams (in August) to not caving early here through all the "omg how come this isn't done yet" fan concerns. He hasn't taken care of the QB position thus far, of course, but he seems a cool customer in this area. His job is to convince the other side: (1) I am willing to walk away; (2) you want/need this more than I do; or (3) both.

I'm not going to insult you in your occupation, and will rather trust you're good at what you do. That said, I think you're more likely drawing upon negotiations where the other company/party is trapped, and you are the only way out of their untenable situation. Look at it more like a disgruntled employee than a B2B negotiation. You want to be done with him, because it poisons your company to keep him, but you'd like to get out as painlessly as possible. The employee's stance is pay me far more severance than you want to spend. In that situation you ultimately pay it because, in the end, you can both afford it & you'd feel the company will lose more even if they save some $ on a one-time payout. In the end, the two sides need a divorce, and the employee has to be bought off to make it happen. Specifics of any one situation aside, a typical employment lawyer is going to tell you to swallow your pride: be done with him & move on, because the company can - and very well may - lose a multiple of that payout in various ways, as well as maybe lose multiple other valued employees who'll quit if he's not gone. I see this as being more along those lines than vendor-client or owner-tenant negotiations over contract terms. Unlike in those situations, the Packers don't merely want this to happen like the Jets; they need this deal, as they are decidedly not all-in on the 2023 season & have internal personality conflicts as well as future considerations regarding J.Love (whom they'll ultimately lose) on top of that. They need to trade Rodgers far more than the Jets need to get him, as it'll have extended repercussions for them that last beyond this season. If it ever go that far - which it won't - Jets clearly won't be so happy with a different QB instead of Rodgers, but life will go on & they can look again next offseason with plenty more flexibility in both cap space as well as retaining all their draft picks. Conversely, the Packers are better off taking a future 7th round pick than walking away from that offer. Further considerations may be that keeping vs. surrendering next year's 1st round pick may also influence whether or not Rodgers sticks around for 2024 if the Jets' top pick is outside the top 50 slots. To me, anyway, your proposal is just too much unless it gets them substantially further than merely the WC round. Particularly if they lose while Rodgers isn't even on the field (say he goes on IR around Thanksgiving, which would satisfy the 50% snaps clause to boot), and then retires for good rather than playing in 2024. I just think you've outlined too many paths to failure for the Jets' 2023 season that still surrenders a 1st round pick in 2024, and the Jets aren't nearly in the position where they have to make that happen. I don't do last words. I do last paragraphs. What are you, new here?

Rodgers wouldn’t reward GM he already hates by retiring, let alone after said GM then further lights a bag of doody on his front porch. He will stick around for spite.

This. They are stranded in the desert and the Jets’ sure thing Honda is the only car in sight, with a full tank of gas, air conditioning, and bottled water inside. They are holding out for chilled bottled water. Oh yeah, and a limo with a sex-starved pinup model in the back.

I think future picks are fine, but not paying a 1st rounder even if they squeak into the playoffs and getting thumped in the WC game with or without Rodgers actually on the field.

We don’t have to agree, but giving up a pair of 2s even if they suck is a terrible deal for the Jets. Fair shmare — they have an asset they cannot afford to keep, and cannot get rid of by simply cutting him. There is no reason for the Jets to cave in the interest of a nebulous idea of what is purportedly fair. For his past faults, luckily the Jets’ GM is a good negotiator. Regressing to the idea of what would’ve been “fair” from Seattle would have meant one less 1st round pick for Adams (and maybe more), for a safety who was then pining for a contract extension in line with the league’s best defenders - not merely the best safeties - which would’ve started in the $20-22MM/yr range. Knowing the adversary’s pain point is so much greater than one’s own is part of the negotiation we simply call leverage. Fairness doesn’t play into it at all when the other side is trapped & has no tenable fallback position.

The Jets missing the playoffs for a decade doesn’t make the trade value higher. The Packers walking away means they never get to try out Love, who’s clearly not beating out Rodgers in camp, nor can they withstand the reverse of the optics of paying him $60MM to be the QB2 for a non-playoff season, after which they can’t even withstand him retiring. They’re at some $30MM over for ‘24 right now before an additional $45MM that $60MM accelerates. There is just no reason to cave. GB has no fallback position & it seems Douglas recognizes this.

Has nothing to do with rubbing anything in anyone's face. They should not pay a 1st because here is no need to get up that high, particularly after the draft is over and GB is faced with the alternative of paying him $60MM in less than 90 days. A conditional 1, in such a circumstance, should be based on a SB and not merely a playoff appearance. They could argably reach 1 & done WC levels by signing 2 meh veterans who'd get crushed in the WC game. They're after Rodgers to do better than that, so the Jets shouldn't fork over a 1st for what'd be a failure. He gets them to a SB sure, upgrade to a 1. He wins it all & they can have the '24 1st and a '25 1st and 20 years of naming rights to change MetLife to "Jets Suck Dog Dicks Stadium" faik.

I can be sympathetic to the motivation & goals sought, but also realize that's the part of the minority hire that explicitly favors good rosters, where bad rosters (or coordinators under terrible HCs and/or with terrible rosters) have virtually no chance of getting HC offers because there's no track record for success. Would McDaniel have gotten hired as a HC in 2022 if he was the Shurmer-Judge Giants' running game coordinator from 2017-2020 and then their OC for one season in 2021? Taking nothing away from McDaniel - same person, same coaching style, same from the neck-up - and no one seriously believes he'd have gotten hired as a HC. No one's making HC offers to Pep Hamilton. Bet Sean Desai has a way better chance of HC offers after 1-2 years as the Eagles' DC instead of being the DC with the Bears & then an "associate HC - Defense" (whatever that is) with the ****ty Seahwaks D. Someone make the case that Saleh gets the Jets' - or anyone's - HC job if he was the DC in Atlanta instead of San Fran. Absent a major turnaround in or influx of talent on their side of the football, it's pretty hard for coordinators to earn HC gigs when they accepted & entered challenging situations in the first place.

They're simply not in it and aren't about to be in it. I don't know what else to tell you.

Yeah this is where I'm at, too, though Mims (rookie starter for the 2nd half of the prior season) is missing from your pre-Moore list. Also that the Jets had a center with a guaranteed 8-figure salary for that season & had just taken an interior OLman in round 1; pretty unusual to go C in round 2 after using a pair of 3s to move up in round 1 for a G. The easiest thing to do in hindsight is to suggest we should've taken a pro bowl player over a different player that hasn't panned out nearly as hoped. Happens to every team, though. Humphrey did fall; some were calling for him in round 1 (before the Jets traded up for AVT). He's clearly a better player without regard for positional importance, but iirc most had him somewhere in round 2 but it was all over where he could end up getting taken. If any team is to be kicking themselves over missing out on Humphrey it's the Packers, who took C Josh Myers 1 pick ahead of Humphrey.

The Jets are nowhere near in "cap hell" nor are they headed towards it. Not with Rodgers, not with extending QW, not with adding other notable veterans whose contracts will be well off the books before any heavy-hitting cap hits will show for recent draft picks. You're presenting a false scenario where we won't be able afford to keep our players but other teams can afford to keep their players and sign a bunch of ours (and of course others' non-retained FAs) away. The 2024 Jets (pre-Rodgers) are some $85MM under a cap ceiling that is already under-projecting next year's growth by ≥$20MM. Even if there is no outright $ reduction for Rodgers, though it's being leaked that there is or might be, that'd still put them at $70MM under with Rodgers counting $33MM (but before y1 of a QW extension, though it also won't nearly hit as heavily that year). Then you can - or should - safely start trimming the likes of CJM ($17M), Uzomah ($8MM), maybe Tomlinson ($13MM), and others who can aggregately add up. Also add in shaving off several million more in unneeded former picks who are unlikely to make the final cut this year, which will indirectly carry over as well (A.Davis, Bryce Huff). There is no one they've drafted whom they will lose due to a sheer lack of cap space. The only reason will be if the two sides disagree on the player's worth, which has happened for every team all this time (including pretty much every franchise-tagged player ever), or in the case of someone like Becton whom they might view as too injury-risky to trust for a long term deal. They are in excellent cap shape & won't lose anyone they want for cap reasons, and aren't screwing their ability to re-sign Sauce, Wilson, etc. because they're signing Rodgers now. The numbers do not add up to tell that story.

Lol nope I read it as you were pushing hard for a projection & skimmed right over your paragraph that began "Seems a little high for a center" as I was trying to get caught up here (the important business of interneting needing to get finished). So my post can be salvaged other than you can consider my snot-nosed ire directed elsewhere instead, lol.

This. If you make it about $ for stats, that’s what you’re going to get. If you make it about paying him to play football, then absent shifting to a dog***t QB that’s (hopefully) what you’re going to get. Truth is, while it didn’t make him look like a model teammate, the video he had his dad leak out (all the times he was open that Mayfield Mayfielded instead) was pretty damning.

The cap ceiling is going to be ~$300MM (quite possibly/probably more than that) by the time the ‘22 picks are getting their extensions. If there are too many that panned out too well to afford them all, they’ll flip one or more for picks at that time. I’m fine with trading down, depending on what they’d otherwise do at #13 of course, but (even aside from Rodgers not costing $120MM) they’re not going to be in any type of cap hell.

Also what if he gets his bonus for 800 yards by week 12 (good for us) but then feels he’s not getting paid enough for the remainder of the season & coasts on a bunch of key plays where he’s designed to be a decoy? No, not with this one. Too much risk for him to reassess “is it still worth my effort?” once performance incentives have been reached (or deemed unattainable). His incentive should be a desire to win a SB while playing with Rodgers. Pay him for that, or don’t.