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Sperm Edwards

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Everything posted by Sperm Edwards

  1. You know there is such a thing as a happy medium between lower tier FAs and top end FAs. They must have a name for these non-QB FAs. You know, something between marginal starters / has-beens, and the gargantuan-priced $18-23MM/year types.
  2. Here's the thing, though. We can't carry over 75% of the salary cap annually for the next 2-3 years while we hope 2020's draft picks mature, if they don't bust outright. Meanwhile the veteran FAs signed/re-signed in 2020 will have their guaranteed seasons expire after 1-2 years depending on the player (unless they're ultra-elite and in a narrow age range, where they get 3 years, but there aren't too many non-QBs getting deals like that). It prevents the need to go all in on draftees who are yet undeserving, never mind simply handing starting jobs to rookies because we have no serious competition for their positions. I thought we hated that. Now we don't anymore? In the meantime we don't have to wait - as an example we've gone over very recently - for multiple WRs, who won't have been drafted until after this free agency period, to fully mature into reliable starters. There's less than a 50/50 chance of a 1st-2nd round rookie being extremely productive as a rookie. Most of the non-tragedies are in the 600 yard range in year 1, assuming they sustain no injuries. Very few reach 1000 yards right away, when you consider how many are actually drafted. And that's just to get one full time starter with that production. We need two of them. I agree it's not an ideal pipeline situation already set up, but the team is in the situation it's in, not the position we wish it was in. I'd add this is how a veteran-to-draftee pipeline is created properly, with younger FAs we're not tied to for 3 years, nor who'll be trash after just 1 due to aging.
  3. As was noted by someone else above, what do you think it would cost to extend each of these players (individually, not adding up the group)? My guesses are that these guys will be (based on demands many teams have for these same position starters): Beachum $12MM (he's a healthy, 30 year-old veteran at a high-demand/low-supply left tackle position; we're not getting him "on the cheap" even before a draft with some good LT prospects). Wouldn't shock me if he even got a little more than this on a per year basis, even if he doesn't get 2 years fully guaranteed as a tradeoff. Poole $5MM (I don't know; maybe $3MM maybe $8MM. What I do know is inflation makes everyone's dollars go up unless they're older players winding down their careers). Adams isn't a free agent in 2020, and won't be one until 2022 when he can also be franchise tagged; but extending him now - which then makes him untrade-able no matter what offer we get after that - I'd guess would add some $4MM to his current $7MM cap number (~$25MM initial signing bonus - ? - divided by a 6, on a 4 year extension that lasts through 2025). Jenkins $10MM (he's an edge rusher coming off 8 and 7 sack seasons; someone will pony up at least that much, and it'd be unsurprising to see that eclipsed by a couple million more) Lewis at least $6MM (harder to predict, but he's a starting guard. Don't go by his 2019 cap number, since that was the final year of his rookie contract) Hewitt ??? honestly I have no idea what his market price is as a UFA. He's meh, but he started the whole year without being the culprit on 10 plays/game every week. Just to keep it closer to what you think, call it $3MM. Could be $1-2MM more, could be $1-2MM less. DT $5MM (guessing plus or minus a million) -- at age 32 with a history of injury and declined play from his prime, he's suited for 1 (max 2) year contracts from here on out. Certainly not more than 1 year guaranteed at a time. He showed he's recovered from his Achilles injury, and can still play, but he also showed he doesn't have the wheels he once had, probably even without that injury. Anyway using the above, I'm at a rough total of $45-50MM, or 50% higher than your estimate. Very doubtful I'm dead-on for each one, but I think overall it'd be close. Sure we could structure a couple of them - Beachum and Jenkins in particular - so they're a little lighter in 2020, but until a new CBA goes into effect we can't just defer to later years with league minimum salaries in year 1 like we used to be able to.
  4. Here's another reason they're not cutting him, even if he's cleared medically: the expiring CBA. Typically they'd have a lot more flexibility to move others around, where cutting his $6MM would save $6MM. It still does, but they won't realize that savings in a lump sum because it'll accelerate an additional $3.6MM to the 2020 cap no matter when he's released. For the 2020 season alone, he's got a $7.8MM cap number to keep him or a $5.4MM cap number to dump him. To some it looks like cutting him only saves $2.4MM and it's therefore not worth it. But that is a myopic way of viewing things, unless we were realistic/likely SB contenders in 2020. What's typically overlooked in that one year analysis - as opposed to keeping him one more year and then cutting him (if he's healthy) after the 2020 season - is the future beyond, which is where the savings would ultimately be realized. There'd be another $6MM pushed forward to 2021 (we'd get a higher cap ceiling), by not spending it on his salary in 2020, plus the extra $3.6MM that accelerates to 2020 would be available in 2021. What will feel like just a $2.4MM savings in 2020 would additionally feel like a $9.6MM effective savings in 2021. In reality we're only saving $6MM in 2020 salary spending but it will feel very different. Unless I'm just on almost no sleep - which I am - and I'm not just counting the same dollars twice, lol. It's probably moot, as I expect him to exercise his injury guarantee. He injured his body, not his brain (and not his plus his wife's plus his agent's brains collectively).
  5. That's fine; it's a matter of opinion, not fact. My feeling is we already had a good, veteran ILB - still very young - capable of running the D. It's not like the preseason choice was Mosley or...nothing but a pair of high-end backups (who ultimately ended up starting all season anyway). No doubt about the lack of bargains for FA probowlers in March. But we didn't have an all-or-none decision, and the team needed several good starters all over more than 2 great players (Mosley and Bell) just 1 offseason after setting fire to big bucks for Tru Johnson, plus hanging onto Leo for a 9-figure year instead of moving him and clearing enough space to buy someone else with a longer term future here. Yes we missed Mosley all year, but we also missed Williamson all year and I think the latter's absence is vastly glossed over in comparison. The presence of either of them would have been of immense help; not just Mosley. Maybe I just didn't see CJM as a necessary $16MM/year upgrade over a second ILB with a young Williamson already locked in and not disappointing. Not nearly as necessary as finding another CB (with the writing already on the wall for Tru Johnson's 2020 release), more OL pickups than just trading for damaged-goods Osemele and re-signing Harrison. If he's so necessary, why was it Baltimore wouldn't even tag him for one more year? They had the cap room. I'm sure they'd like a MLB upgrade themselves now, but they didn't even feel the need to throw us a bone offer of a day 3 pick for Williamson after we went all in balls deep on Mosley. They were fine going with guys frankly no one outside Baltimore (and maybe a couple nerd football-stat sites) has heard of. Still had the league's stingiest defense once they went with a committee approach to replace him in October. Fact is they were an 18ppg defense with him, and an 18ppg defense without him. What made him so valuable wasn't just his play, but that they got his play for $2MM/year x 4 years, plus a $9MM 5th year option. With Mosley gobbling up $17MM/year the defense would be proportionally lacking elsewhere. Again, what's done is done. It's not where I would have invested on this defense (or this roster in general), but at least Mosley is a terrific player. I'm going to have to choose to look at that investment as: better him than blowing that same money on another Trumaine Johnson type, just mailing it in after being guaranteed one final multi-year cash-in contract, itself after back-to-back franchise tags from a team that valued him, but didn't trust paying him in anything other than a show-me contract year every year for 3 years running.
  6. Could be. Another thought (by Enunwa or his agent) is if he returns to the field he could then get cut for skill, and nobody's guaranteeing him another $10MM over the next 2 years starting this March. Unless he has confidence he will have guaranteed $6MM value to the 2020 Jets, which is a decision he won't have to make until after free agency and the draft are over, he has no incentive to say he's all better. His smart money move is to stay injured. At least through final roster cutdowns (which would result in the Jets IR'ing him). He could still return midseason, and by then he's only risking his $4MM injury guarantee for 2021, while giving himself the opportunity to up those dollars on the field. Actually even that is only a risk if he makes it through the 2020 season healthy and gets cut for skill; if he gets hurt again after returning, he still gets that $4MM. How his agent got a $20MM injury guarantee boggles the mind, even from an imbecile like Maccagnan. The guy was yet again ON IR at the time, ffs!
  7. I think they'll keep him as well, unless Williams steps in and says extending/keeping Burgess or Hewitt - or both - assuming a contract can be kept at or below $3MM (which allows them to keep a younger starter for longer, not just for 2020, and fresher legs and depth security), and using the rest towards elsewhere, makes the whole greater. In particular if that extra is used on his side of the ball and/or allows him to keep some starter-level depth to rotate in & out with impunity. The idea could be well they merely looked like good depth, but would have looked a good deal better with CJ as the other starter calling the plays, and that's proper justification for signing him for so much $$$ in the first place. There's also the other possibility that the team is simply migrating away from starting 2 ILBs, and it's better served with a backup-level salary allowing this flexibility than worrying about regularly keeping an established every-down veteran starter on the sideline, which opens him up to second-guessing from fans, media, and even within his own locker room any time there's a positive play for the offense with a healthy Williamson level player looking pissed on the sideline. Truth is as much as I thought $17MM for an ILB was overkill at the time, and still do, it's even more overkill when he's just half of an ILB duo. It is easier to swallow, from an asset distribution standpoint, if he's the lone MLB (and holding his own in doing so, like before he got hurt). What's done is done, but it's still tough to overlook that we outbid Baltimore's top offer by 50%, and even declined a lower $15MM amount on the LB franchise tag - typically reserved for edge rushers - despite starting a dirt-cheap QB of their own for the upcoming 3 seasons. Then they picked up a just-cut nobody FA in October, to platoon as MLBBC instead of trotting out Onwuasor every down, and still finished with the #3 defense (probably #1 since picking him up; nobody put up 500+ yds and 30+ points on them again, let alone back to back with the latter being the freaking Browns). So how necessary is a $17MM MLB then, if his own team can replace him with a by-committee pair of $2-3MM players at MLB and still field the league's stingiest defense? They arguably wouldn't have acquired (let alone acquired and then quickly extended at $14MM per) Marcus Peters - for a low 5th round pick and a special teams LB - if they matched or beat the Jets' offer for Mosley. Not without its coincidence, the Jets sure could use a starting CB in his prime, with Peters' elite ability, and that his new contract is a few million per year less than CJ's. Admittedly, for all his talent Peters is (or at least was) a nutbag - which Jets fans saw firsthand against KC - and has given up some big TDs in between his picks and breakups. In the end, the decision on Williamson may not come right away. It's possible they keep him until the preseason, and if he just doesn't look the same yet, release him before final roster cutdowns. He has no guaranteed money left, prior knee injury or not, and anyway once he's medically cleared it's done. Only unfortunate part of that timing is it'll be 6 months after the cap room would have been more useful, though it could still prove to be a positive factor in an otherwise unrelated player trade-acquisition between August and the late October deadline. At this point it's impossible to say without knowing his progress physically.
  8. Hey, enough with buttfumbling every post you merely disagree with. That you’d downvote a factual explanation on the cap is no less obnoxious. Mature up or leave the site until you do. You’ve been doing this trash routine for too long and no one is amused, except maybe @Skeptable, whom this same message can almost go to verbatim. It’s like whenever I see a buttfumble that isn’t made in jest - in particular when I see them post after post in the same thread - I know there’s at least a 50-50 chance it’s one or both of you two. Try it with me now in retaliation and you’re gone. No need to reply, as it’s not a point to debate. Just cut it out.
  9. You spelled every word wrong. I have no opinion on Matt Rhule one way or the other so this triggering attempt is another failed post. Admit you were dead wrong, could not have been more wrong, and are now getting in deeper because you wish to protect a wildly ignorant and factually incorrect post.
  10. Just say it: “I, Nico, made a wild assertion with my post was factually wrong and without merit. There are in fact many past and present successful head coaches who neither worked for YEARS as coordinators nor as players before, as I incorrectly presumed. Furthermore, being a career player has never proven to be adequate or even requisite prior training for becoming a successful head coach in the NFL.”
  11. I actually like the metallic green helmet. Probably the only part I like, though I don't have any problem with the change in shade of green; hunter green was a 90s thing. But black uniforms is an old thing that was at one time edgy/tough and now IMO it's a weak attempt at looking edgy/tough. I liked the idea someone had of a gray/green combo, but I still like just the green & white. I don't like the new, poor attempt at a Nike swoosh icon thing on the logo and under the shoulders. Looks like a door wedge. Gotta agree with the OP on that. Personally I liked the classic/timeless look, but accept that's subjective and to others it was just old/outdated and they like change for change's sake. Truth is with the Parcells-retros we wore from 2008-2018, we won 2 division titles. So some change can be good. In all honesty they could change it to fuscia and purple plaid, with a painted white wrapping their fuscia/purple plaid helmets, and I'd be for it if they started winning NFL titles with regularity. Or even once, ffs .
  12. 🤪 You specifically said as a coordinator. Not an assistant. Not a mere position coach. A coordinator OR a player for many years (though I have doubts about the latter's inherent value in becoming a HC, otherwise all the good coaches would be ex-players). If you want to keep moving the goal posts and changing the parameters any time you're proven wrong it is an unserious argument you're making. There aren't any head coaches I'm aware of who haven't worked for multiple years as an assistant coach of some type at the pro level, or as at least a coordinator if not HC at the college level. There is no such thing, any more than there's such a thing as a brown and green sky, so it hardly seems a point of any significance. The day some GM takes a kid right out of college classes and turns him into a HC you can say I'm wrong. And special teams coach isn't a coordinator. Not really, and everyone knows it. Special teams coaches are half coaching roster bubble and later round rookies, not so much managing high-dollar veterans and their attitudes and senses of entitlement (earned as it may be in many cases). There are good STCs and bad ones, but none are on the same coaching plane or have to contend with nearly the same variables as an OC or DC. There are no crucial decisions on an extended drive or even a single series of downs. In comparison to OCs/DCs, how often do we hear about the brilliant gameplan a STC came up with for a specific opponent? Yeah, pretty much never. I can't recall ever hearing it, actually. The rest of your above reply are just poor obfuscation attempts: mushing longer experience of decidedly lesser, non-coordinator/HC positions together with the minimal ~1 yr experience as an actual coordinator, to try making it seem like there was equal time spent being totally in charge of half the team of veterans.
  13. I remember reading somewhere that Bender's death really messed him up. Sad on both counts.
  14. I'm late to this topic, but... Andy Reid, right off the top of my head And John Harbaugh was just a special teams coach (which is only very recently called "coordinator" and no one on earth thinks of ST coaches on the same level as OCs/DCs) Tomlin had all of 1 year as a DC when he was made HC Vrabel also just 1 year as a DC. He was a player for a long time, but arguing that being a player makes you an acceptable coach is an uphill climb of an argument to say the least, and he's the only player on this list LaFleur bouncing 1 year as a DC for 2 teams surely isn't what you meant by YEARS in caps (especially when the more recent of the two was as an OC overseeing an offense in the bottom half dozen in the league) Anthony Lynn almost one year as an OC Matt Nagy one year as an OC (Anyone here think he was the straw that stirred the drink in KC? I didn't think so.) How many more than one are you looking for?
  15. I'd have to agree. If he was anywhere near expectations, absent injuries that held him back he'd never leave the field in favor of relative nobodies with half his purported talents. Still hope he turns it around. Pessimism, optimism, or annoyance at his rookie performance aside, we all do, since he's not going anywhere else anytime soon.
  16. I agree, but getting $4MM guaranteed this year, followed by his FA walking papers in 2021, would yield the greater amount (unless he suffers a major, career-altering injury in 2020). I think $7MM is about as much total guarantee as he'd see. I don't think it's impossible, since many teams need OL help. But I don't think he'd get a 9-figure guarantee as a FA again, absent proving a bounce-back season from both health and performance standpoints. Honestly if someone was willing to fork over more than that as a guarantee then Winters would have at least some trade value, even it was only a day 3 pick.
  17. Leo was 100% healthy, has a recent #6 overall pedigree, and despite our disappointment plays a much higher-valued position. Not the same. There could be some eye-of-beholder people (including at least one on the Giants) who think he's ready to finally take that big leap forward as he enters his prime, and fully realize his initial hoopla. Is there a GM anywhere who believes Williamson is about to explode better than ever in 2020?
  18. Being scared of returning at all, or being scared of eventually returning to prior form, isn't the same as betting on it in year 1 returning and making a trade to bet on it in March/April after a mid-August injury. Oh yeah, and then as a further deterrent to doing so, he's a UFA after just 1 season. I'd be very surprised if he fetches a 3rd rounder.
  19. He could also take a pay cut in exchange for a guaranteed 2020 season. Still becomes a UFA in 2021, and allows for a bounce-back 2020 season to get his dollars back up. I doubt he'd get $7MM per as a FA right now, but if he has a mere average season in 2020 he could parlay that into a $10MM/year contract in 2021 that he has no chance of seeing in 2 months. As a potential side benefit, the Jets then get to lose him as a UFA instead of as a roster cut.
  20. How about those who didn't want either one - not QW and not Oliver - unless either or both could be assured of a dozen sacks and another 3-5x that in pressures, regularly collapsing the pocket up the gut, every year. If one of them turns into that, then it'll be good use for us if we're contenders soon, even if neither were nearly such as rookies. Taking any defender that high should result in the D seeming to have an extra player on the field. Someone like I described above does that, as it negates the need for regular blitzing to get the same pressure. Same with an edge rusher. Same with a true lockdown corner who doesn't need safety help on his man. Someone merely good (or someone great just at run-stuffing) does not do that. Not even if he's good/solid overall for several years. Anything other than oh-so-special is inadequate use of the type of draft resource that is routinely traded for a pair of 1st rounders, and that's without moving way down to the bottom 10 picks of the round, even if it's not truly chart-value. Granted I'm handicapped by not knowing/following these prospects well before the draft, but stepping back from getting infatuated with a prospect, they should have traded down or - if staying up there because we allegedly couldn't get chart value - taken an edge rusher (in this case Allen was the only prospect valued with a top 5 pick, give or take, so far as I recall). It's not just the way-higher number of sacks, though that difference certainly is significant. It's also triple the number of QB pressures either of them generated. I'm not so deeply moved by the "if we trade down for more picks we'll just get a greater amount of garbage than the true super stud we need ablahalalah" despite generally seeing the same perennial playoff teams consistently picking outside the top 15-20 overall every year and staying relevant despite it. Especially when our pick was so high we'd get so much greater a return than trading down from several slots lower, and further while being without a much-needed 2nd rounder on top of that for the second straight year (as we've been without a good one for most of the team's existence). The only reason I was sympathetic to not trading down in 2019, over just taking Allen, is based purely on the nitwit charged with making the picks.
  21. You haters are making a big deal about nothing. It’s not a real $20 million guaranteed we can cut him after one season.” Maccagnan FTW!!
  22. I’d be surprised if Beachum and Jenkins aren’t solidly 50-100% higher to re-sign than most think they’ll be.
  23. No one is trading anywhere near a 3rd round pick for him. He hasn’t seen the field yet since a bad injury, so it’s no sure thing that specifically for all of 2020 he’ll already be as good as 2018/prior, and just as significantly he only has that one year left on his contract anyway. He isn’t getting traded and isn’t taking a pay cut. He’s a Jet in 2020 or he’s getting cut to clear cap space.
  24. I don't think that's true. If it's a career ending injury, where a doctor says playing could cripple him because he's damaged goods after this last injury, he doesn't need to keep trying to return. He's already been rehabbing and if he can't pass a physical (for playing football not for normal living) then he can't pass a physical. He doesn't need to keep rehabbing to try to return to the field, and even if he tries his hardest, if he's now too slow or can't cut the same, that's a result of this on field injury and that's that: Jets pay as though he's made the roster, and again for half his salary next year ($4MM, to reach that full $20MM payout). His money is guaranteed for injury. He doesn't need to be in a wheelchair to collect it. He might also try to return, figuring he makes more if he can stay on the field, as @#27TheDominator brings up, but it of course depends on how permanently hurt he really is. So yes, unless he returns, this contract -handed out while the player was again on IR, mind you - is $20MM for part of one game.
  25. Yeah every year there are players labeled as "locks" to be off the board by #3, #6, #10, whatever. And every year they fall. This time 2 years ago Rosen was a lock to get taken no later than 2nd overall. No shortage of examples. There'll be an OT or WR (if not at least one of each) that will be there at #11. And as you say, if not, then there'll be someone interested in moving up to #11. Not every other team's wish list is limited to the same needs as the Jets.

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