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Sperm Edwards

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Everything posted by Sperm Edwards

  1. Shifting back to the OL stats he referenced, what's misleading is it isn't the core starting line (especially outside RG) that was so terrible. He cited all the sacks the Jets gave up, but didn't bother to look up whose fault they were. It's not a starting OL issue... ...if it's the 3rd and 4th string LT giving up sacks/pressures/hurries because of injuries (McDermott and Edoga gave up 5 sacks, 10 pressures, and 3 penalties in barely 200 snaps). ..if the two young RBs may be exciting runners at times, but they were horrible in pass protection. There were at least another han
  2. While they have enough picks that they can part with one for a veteran player, I'd be surprised if they specifically traded for a WR. They have two younger/young starting WRs under contract. Corey Davis just turned 27 this month and Elijah Moore will be 22 next season. They could use a 3rd starter, of course, but they're not so desperate that they can't wait until the draft. Until then, they'll look to re-sign Berrios or sign someone else in that $4-6MM range again. Then with that corps in their back pocket, head into the draft looking for a WR in the top 40 who'll be pretty cheap for the
  3. Depends on the demand, of course, but if they could pull that off of course I'd do it, but they have so many picks this year I think the goal is parlaying it into an extra high pick next year more than an extra 2022 2nd rounder. Also not that I'm expecting it, but don't discount the possibility of Douglas trading one of our picks for a player, though I think that'd have to wait until the first (and maybe also the 2nd) wave of FA is over. Jets have plenty of cap room -- certainly enough to bridge the cap between a #4/#10 overall pick's $7-10MM/yr contract and a veteran who's on (or who n
  4. Cool, I'm enjoying this, too. No doubt about WR having high early bust rates, but so do other positions that merely don't seem like it because they're not taken early very often. TE inside the top 30 has a worse success rate than WR; [ok I won't mention center again]; there have been some high pick guards that were major flops (two in 2013's top-10 alone); a year later three tackles were taken in round 1 and the worst of the bunch by a long-shot was the highest-picked one at #2 (Robinson), and there are plenty of other 1st round tackle whiffs (by skill, not for
  5. Well once Stafford was off the board, he was the next-best and could've gone anywhere from 5, where we took him, to 10-12. Just because we bought into the undeserved hype doesn't mean any of the next 5 or so slotted teams would have. Rodgers could've gone #3 or in the mid-20s. If someone had taken him #3 it'd be considered preposterous that he could've slipped to #24, yet he did. Leinart might've gone anywhere in the top 3 instead of #10. Had just one team liked him a hair better, and took him up there, no one would believe he nearly slipped to #10. Rosen was pick/prospect
  6. +1 If those statistical logic propositions (based on past data) always held true, there wouldn't be any upsets. And while Brady is an obvious outlier - a more accomplished and polished passer than Murray, no matter what stats one may care to isolate - amazingly he still has a third remaining WR1 to throw to. Evans is a helluva lot more deadly a weapon than any non-Hopkins WR on Arizona. Also while Gronk may not be in his go-to prime, I think he's closer to it than Ertz in terms of his QB thinking, "I need a 1st down right now." Plus Fournette's looked like a player again; plus a bet
  7. Don't take it personally. I don't keep close track of which 75% of the website thinks we should draft a center #10 (if not #4). There are a lot of posters here. Yeah I remember the edge thing, and a couple months back I didn't think he'd go for it (in the very next draft after forking over notable contracts for C.Lawson and then JFM), but now I'm thinking he might, if for no other reason than he sees JFM didn't have the stellar pass-rushing season he looked like he was about to have, and after 1 year the guarantees expire anyway. Also yes edge-edge does have an inherent mess, in that
  8. I had a lot of posts I replied to. They're hard to keep track of sometimes; sorry if I replied to yours twice. In replying to this, I guess it's just that, even if one presumes the number of elite centers are in short supply, my response is who cares? There's no evidence that elite centers predominantly come from round 1, on top of a lack of evidence that this is the main difference-maker for a team (difference on top of an average, experienced veteran center; not in comparison to Spencer Long or Wesley Johnson). Green Bay just lost a 1st team all pro center, replaced him with a str
  9. I can sympathize with that, but the team was built to run a certain way, and he was the most important cog (other than Murray himself). It's not like losing post-awesome AJ Green. To that point, if Green holds onto that 20+ yard pass on the prior play then the flip-pick doesn't happen, and without being behind by 3 TDs maybe he doesn't force the next one in either. As you point out ("Duh!!") I don't think it's saying much to note that a QB's job with his elite WR is easier than when after he suddenly goes down, after the trade deadline, leaving the QB with two has-beens and a meh. That's
  10. That's a bit harsh on Murray. He's just finished his 3rd NFL season, and QB's a position where age 28-32 is often one's playing prime (at least as a pure passer). "Some" always question key players - especially young veteran starters - after an ugly loss. The team plan was to have Hopkins out there making things easier for the QB as the team faces playoff opponents; not just a has-been WR, a has-been TE, a slot receiver, and a RB who matadors a blitzer when said QB's dropping back into his EZ on 3rd & long (a personnel sub KK would probably like to have back, seeing how Conner is easi
  11. It’s not about a need for the Jets to justify the why, but rather to recognize that it is. There’s greater demand for those positions in the draft and FA. The elite ones are also in short supply. Failure to recognize that means instead of finding them in the top of the draft, we’re instead looking lower in the draft (lower chance of success) or in FA (higher cost). There’s been no historical evidence of the necessity (or wisdom) of drafting centers and TEs very early, whether in terms of getting the best ones or in resource allocation in team building.There’s much evidence to th
  12. On one hand it's too early, since the expected draft order in January is rarely what actually happens in April. It's also difficult to answer because I'm not in on what all options - including trading down, and who's on & off the board - will be. I'd take a lesser-perceived value in a trade down than way over-draft to take a center that high, especially when the team doesn't need a center in the first place. If we're going to even consider less-than-tier1 positions, then at least make it a position of extreme need, where the difference between what we have and what might be is so mass
  13. The Packers and Steelers do and they don't. They often do extend their young WRs; they just don't usually extend them twice (Antonio Brown being a recent exception). Then again Hines Ward also played his whole career there. Part of the reason they let a lot go is they've hit on more than most, and there are only so many a team can retain. Packers did extend Jennings and Nelson and Cobb. What they've been very good at is extending them early, and identifying which ones are worth extending early and which ones they can let go of. It's impressive, really. That's also one of the rationalizati
  14. The Jets are not trading Fant. As it is they haven't even made any known offers to Moses; LDT is a free agent; and the rest aren't worth bringing back. Becton is likely to start, but I couldn't blame the team for being a little cautious on his reliability (I'd blame them if they weren't). The last thing this team needs is another hole to fill on the OL. The whole thing with this blocking scheme is it takes time to get it right. That's not going to happen if they keep swapping in 2+ new pieces every year, since as it is Becton got little playing time in it in 2021. So the only returning pi
  15. In a more supporting role, I've got no problem with it (though I've no idea what he'd cost or if he'll be worth that at 31, though so far he can still run like the wind, even if he's not quite as fast as he he used to be). LaFleur does like his less-conventional plays, and Patterson could open up more such opportunities, especially in light of the lack of a Berrios extension following the much publicized announcements that the Jets engaged him in such extension talks. They really need a reliable starter at WR, but that doesn't mean they only need 1 WR (or a WR1) and no others. Now ma
  16. That's a relative letdown. While he's not been Donald-lite, he's also not been a DT version of Gholston either.
  17. IIRC it almost the Ravens' entire next season's (2020) draft, offered around the 2019 trade deadline (among other offers). Looking it up now, since it was a couple years ago, you can also search "blockbuster package" of picks offered for him. Anyway it was discussed here with some other detail (some leaks from people who know people in the FO I think) and the team that wouldn't take no for an answer, and kept coming back to offer more, was Baltimore.
  18. I hope not. And he absolutely will still be there. Bleacher Report isn't making the picks.
  19. TEs are not typically drafted that high. It's uncommon in the top 5-6, and too often when it's done in the few picks after that it's regretted (e.g. Hockenstein, done by the same team that also drafted a center top 20 the year before, and then has the audacity to wonder why they suck). Sewell was fine value in a vacuum, but he's their 5th OL pick in round 1 from 2015-2021 (and Ebron the second top 10 pick TE). The thing is TEs - and far more so centers - are terrible value up there unless they become top 3 players at their respective positions. Compare that with a LT-needy team finding a
  20. Yep. Look, if you want to be fair to him in the other direction, as I did, how much curve-grading should take place when he's playing on a defense with no serious edge rusher (let alone 2 of them) and a laughable secondary & LB corps who collectively buy the front-4 precious few coverage sack opportunities. So he does get double-teamed a lot. Forget about how much Donald also gets doubled-up and still terrorizes QBs. It's just not a fair comparison because the guy isn't human, and anyway there's only one of him and he's not an option for the Jets or anyone else. So for compariso
  21. I just lumped the 3 positions to make a point that they're not viewed as highly. While TE is usually about the same for a merely-acceptable starter, unlike with centers there's a huge difference for the very top guys where they can dramatically change the whole offense (and in turn the whole team). A truly elite TE is like having another WR on the field: the luxury of having 4-WR sets without having to tip one's hand that you're clearly passing. The difference between a merely good center and a great one isn't lifting an offense nearly as much as the difference between a merely good TE an
  22. Agree, and while he still had some ups & downs even after GVR was replaced, it's also true that LDT was a noticeable improvement more than he was so awesome himself. Upgrading LDT - or even a full camp with him in place as the starter - will go further still. No one uses the #4 overall pick in the draft with the goal in mind - if the prospect pans out exactly as hoped - of potentially having a top-3 center instead of a mere top 12-15 center. And no one ever will. It's not even a worthwhile discussion if we had no center under contract next year. Leave it alone for another year w
  23. Seriously? This is yet another example of over-inferring things from stats, in this case by willfully ignoring the scheme, or even batting an eye at the way his pass rushing cut in half in the 2nd half of the season. The pressures stats above are heavily skewed in his favor as a built-in advantage, since every IDL isn't set up to be in a gap-shooting opportunity. He's not starting on 3rd base, but he's at least starting on 1st with a huge lead that the pitcher won't challenge. Probably the same goes for stops, since his job is more to disengage and run between iOLmen to make the
  24. A ballhawk safety is quite easily and demonstrably a higher value position than center. There are 7 safeties (ok, 6 plus Adams) making more than the highest-paid center. Moreover, that pace-setter for centers ($13.5MM) is a new contract, while top safeties had eclipsed the $14MM level for years, so the disparity is skewed to make it seem less than it is. The position is of even less value to the Jets, when the the team has an average, under-30, veteran center already under contract, with the first growing-pains year in a slow-to-learn blocking scheme out of the way, while the #32 de
  25. Kind of the point, no? If a sub-$10MM/yr signing (quite possibly sub-$8MM) fully erases the rationalization for using a #4 overall pick on the position, it's not hard to decide which move makes sense and which doesn't. Re-sign Moses. Then in Fant-Becton-Moses they have 2 starting LTs and 3 starting RTs as needs arise. 17 games is a long season. Anyway it's like buying a #4 overall pick by signing a sure thing veteran, who further brings personnel consistency to their zb line, and leadership on a young roster that's about to get even younger, all on a value contract.
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