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Sperm Edwards

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Posts posted by Sperm Edwards


  1. On 2/19/2020 at 8:35 AM, JiF said:

     

    One of only 3 Olines in the history of the NFL to allow 50+ sacks and run block for less than 3.5 yards per carry.

    Yeah but a lot of that stat was because of Luke Falk being clueless, and simply not an NFL QB. Falk took 14 sacks - about 1/3 of the sacks the Jets OL surrendered all year - in his 2 starts, with the Falk-Siemian combo topping out at 18 over those 3 games. Swap in Darnold, or a still-better/veteran QB, and the team's total doesn't approach 50 sacks. 

    Darnold took 33 sacks in his 13 games (and 8 of those came against Jacksonville, right after the ghosts game). A 7% sack rate sucks, and the Jets' OL did suck,, but it was not all-time NFL history bad. Honestly 7% was the league average in 2019. Further, how much was it hurt by Gase forcing him to stay in the pocket instead of planned rollouts (whatever week it was that he finally allowed Darnold to do that).

    There are so many things that can affect a sack rate (other than, or in addition to, the line sucking). Gameplanning that doesn't match the on-field talent; a QB holding the ball too long; not stepping up in the pocket).

    If I throw a ball to you and badly miss the target 3 out of 5 times, throwing 2 picks in the process, is it fair to get on your case for your crappy 40% catch rate? If the line isn't playing well and the QB is still holding the ball longer than just about every other QB, is it all on the OL? 

    I think Darnold will be - or he certainly has the talent to be - a really good QB. I don't look at him and see Sanchez Part II. Of course the OL did him no favors, but he wasn't this perfectly aware veteran QB on the field but for the OL. Ditto Bell and his pathetic 3.2ypc and his plodding & hesitance that got mislabeled as patience. Bilal Powell - whose career was presumed over after last season's injury - was put back there and he averaged 3.9 ypc. Still not good, but he's a 31 year-old backup/has-been who, to a large degree, never was. 

    The line sucked. It just wasn't 3rd-worst of all time suck.

    • Upvote 1

  2. On 1/24/2020 at 9:50 AM, Sperm Edwards said:

    It's pretty simple. Coverage/"layup" numbers or not, since they all get them, 7 then 8 sacks for a starting OLB will get him over $10MM/year as a UFA. 

    • If the Jets extend him, it'll be at $12MM/year, and then his sack production will dip back down to the 3-sack range again
    • If he signs elsewhere it'll be at $11MM/year, and after we're done high-5'ing each other and laughing at it all offseason, his sack numbers will jump to 12 on his new team, making his adjusted $ value in the $15MM+/year range

    So which do you choose?

    Still think $10-12MM/year sounds about right, in this market. 

    • Upvote 2
    • Post of the Week 1

  3. On 2/23/2020 at 9:12 AM, flgreen said:

    Not uncommon that a new GM does his first draft with the old scouts. 

    At the time JD was hired most of the established scouts would have been under contract to other teams.  Got a good guy in Savage. 

    Some of the things that JD got when he signed was a 6 year contract (very long for a first time GM) and increased money in his scouting department.  I'm sure there will be changes in the area scouts right after the draft.

    Isn't that the opposite?

    Scout contracts usually start/end in the mid-spring (after the draft is over) not right after the prior season is over, for obvious reasons. That's the reason a new GM keeps the old scouts around for the first draft, because that first draft is 4 months after the new GM is hired and other scouts are still under contract with their old teams. 

    May might have been prime time to overhaul the scouts if he wanted to, though it's also possible he was just a few weeks late (that scouts were re-upped in early May, just before Douglas was hired). In that case I can hardly fault him for not hiring someone under contract with another team, and he'd have to wait 11+ months to shuffle his scouting group around. 


  4. 42 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    It's not a matter of simply negotiating/signing a contract.  You're talking about contract negotiations in a vacuum.

    It's a matter of a new GM needing time to evaluate the roster, as well as evaluating the people in the building making decisions, before throwing big money around.  

    Again, it doesn't take THAT long. He took about 5 minutes to "evaluate" the need to coax a center out of retirement.


  5. 4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    Yes but most players aren't getting extended at that time by a brand new GM who is using the majority of his first season to evaluate the roster, not make any significant roster decisions.  

    No reasonable person could expect Douglas to arrive and almost immediately agree to terms with Robby on a new deal.  That would have given him about a 10-week timeline to get the deal done, at most.

    I don't agree at all. It doesn't take 10 days, let alone 10 weeks, to agree to a contract. Otherwise no one would be signed the first week of free agency. And a brand new GM could and would still sign players if he was hired in March instead. They all do.

    He was hired in May and the season began almost 4 months later. If he can't get a deal done by then, then he's no more useful than the idiot he replaced. 


  6. Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

    That's the only argument that makes sense, and it falls flat.  A half season out of Robby vs. another pipeline Offensive Lineman/mid-round WR in a loaded draft....the latter helps Sam a lot more than getting nothing at all out of Robby in the end. 

    @Creepy Lurker and I posted the same thing 30 seconds apart. My post was longer, though. Read into that however you must. 

    But really I'm still not really seeing the value there. Is he really going to be a better QB in year 3 (or over his career) because of 9 more games with the deep route running Anderson, while dropping back behind a clearly below average line? 

    He'll either be a good QB or he won't be a good QB. He won't be one or the other because of another half season of Anderson in a lost season.

    • Haha 2

  7. 1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    Yep.  And I would have liked to have kept Robby but the time to re-sign him had already come and gone.  We gave Enunwa the money Robby should have gotten. 

    By the time Douglas arrived it was too late to give him an extension.  Trading Robby at the trade deadline would have been the wise move, even if all we got out of him was a 4th rounder.  

    The bolded part isn't true. Most of the players extended before their final contract year get those extensions over the summer or right as the season's starting. 

    Totally agree with your last statement, though. It would've been ok to keep him if an extension was imminent. But to turn down a mid-round pick for like 9 more games of Anderson, when the team was already 1-6? Only plausible rationalization I could come up with at the time was not wanting to stunt Darnold's growth even more by removing Anderson midseason and replacing him with nobody. Or maybe he thought he could get Anderson back for really cheap, seeing as how he was having a lousy season again stats-wise, like rolling the dice. Whatever it was it doesn't seem too good of a reason right now. I'd rather have the extra pick. 

    • Upvote 1

  8. 9 hours ago, 14 in Green said:

    Yeah, but I don't think I'm breaking any news here when I say you are one of the most knowledgeable fans on this site. There are plenty of people here I DO take seriously when they critique a pick, or a player, and you're one of them. I realize there were people who had a problem with certain picks, I thought I alluded to that. My point was most didn't, at least until after the fact. Those are the ones I don't take seriously.

    That's not meant to be as harsh as it sounds, everyone here is a diehard Jets fan, and most just get carried away with their emotions and frustration with the teams drafting? performance?. We all do it, to an extent. It's why "fan" is derived from the word "fanatic".

    Fight me


  9. 7 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

    No it wasn't.  No matter how hard you try to make it a crappy draft move.

    Its always so easy to complain about a pick after the pick, a year in and then claim SOJ move.

    And I wanted JA in that spot but get the appeal to all pre draft

     

    I don’t know. If the new HC doesn’t want the player (on the heels of signing a RB to a huge contract, also against the HC’s wishes), and wants to trade down almost no matter what, then it’s a bad move. It only makes it worse that the Jets simply didn’t need a DT, and that he was such a huge disappointment on the field to boot. He got beat out for a good amount of playing time by some undrafted nobody ffs. 

    Drafitng Q.WIlliams at #3 actually looks BETTER in hindsight in a sense, because L.Williams was viewed as a lock for Maccagnan to extend at the time. If Leo had the surge season many swore he would under G.Williams, right after guaranteeing Anderson 2 more years of starter money, then it’s foolishness in real time not hindsight.

    Also it was a terrible pick because I’m tired of typing Williams for 3 different people on defense. Two was bad enough.  

    • Post of the Week 1
    • Haha 1

  10. 21 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

    What would the financial ramafications be if douglas traded him right before or during the draft?

     

    3 hours ago, Ohio State NY Jets fan said:

     at least half of that ~$20 million dollar signing bonus would be dead cap (probably why the payout of that bonus was a sticking point in the contract hold out) - this is the year we find out if he has any passion for the game 

     

    2 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

    I still say we hear rumors of the jets trying to trade him leading up to the draft. 

     

    53 minutes ago, flgreen said:

    Think it's $27M dead money, and $19M cap hit.  Very, very unlikely to happen

    He was and is untrade-able because of the cap ramifications. That’s probably the biggest reason why he wasn’t traded (and a big reason why someone made the offer in the first place). His remaining salary/RB is guaranteed but the Jets already paid him a huge SB. We paid it, so it has to come off our cap. Another team would absorb his upcoming guaranteed salaries and roster bonuses, but 

    If they trade him now, about $16MM accelerates to the 2020 cap. Yes that will come off no matter what over time, but it’s a reality that this is also his cap charge for the upcoming 20-21 seasons combined. Unless G.Williams already wrote him off as a massively overdrafted pick who has no serious chance of reaching his presumed predraft potential, it paid to just stick with him and hope the light turns on. More likely Williams gave the thumbs up to keep QW over the “blockbuster” of picks Douglas allegedly turned down. 

    Hopefully that light does turn on, because refusing an offer designed to be one we couldn’t refuse doesn’t pay just because of remaining charges for his SB that hit our cap no matter what anyway. It only pays if QW turns into what he was drafted to be in the first place.


  11. 20 hours ago, Apache 51 said:

    Hope he can stay healthy.

    He was healthy well before he returned from IR. I don’t know exactly what happened out there, but he practiced on his hammy a little bit in early Sept on a Tuesday and they IR’d him the next day, which is what teams do when they’re stashing a player but don’t want to use up a roster spot on him right away. In early November he claimed himself that he was 100% (and it’s quite possible he was 100% weeks before that, but was ineligible to return until 8 weeks after the IR designation date). A few weeks later they cut him.

    His problem (in terms of sticking on the roster for us) may be that he doesn’t present any dual-value on special teams. It’s hard to imagine he doesn’t have the tools to play on specials, so it could suggest he’s dumb AF or not a team player. 

    Cousins surely had some influence on the Vikings picking him up in September after no one put in a waiver claim, but it’s not a good sign that they cut him while his cost was so low and also while Thielen was still sidelined with his own 2nd-half hammy injury. They must really think Doctson sucks something awful, or that he’s a total tool. Hopefully we get lucky, like maybe he had the talent all along but just needed to put in more work than he did before (like he expected it to just happen as a 1st rounder believing his own hype or something). 

    • Upvote 1
    • Like 1

  12. On 2/19/2020 at 2:37 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

    Jets Offensive Line the year before Mangini arrived:

    • LT Jason Fabini (age - 31)
    • G Jonathan Goodwin (Yes, it was a mistake here letting him walk in free agency after '05)
    • C Kevin Mawae (age - 34)
    • G Pete Kendall (age - 32)
    • RT Adrian Jones

    Jets Offensive Line the year after Mangini was fired (put in place by Mangini's final season):

    • LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson
    • LG Alan Faneca
    • C Nick Mangold
    • RG Brandon Moore
    • RT Damien Woody

    Brandon Moore was the Jets’ starting guard since Mangini was still just a DB coach for the Patriots.

    And honestly, A+ for effort, but Faneca was not a good pickup, made even worse by seeing as how bady Goodwin outplayed him for a fraction of the cost for far longer. Faneca had one ok season and the big reason for the uptick in OL production was because Mangini made a huge unforced mess on his own, dumping a reliable Pete Kendall and replacing him with Adrien Clarke in freaking August, playing next to a LT who had his own share of rookie growing pains. Faneca gets loads of undue credit for Ferguson and Mangold - elite prospects in their own rights - becoming better players after their first two seasons (Ferguson in particular, since Mangold was good almost immediately and was already a PB alternate his first 2 seasons before they even brought Fanceca in). That Faneca signing was a Revis2015-level contract for the Jets: elite, record-breaking money with guaranteed big dollars into his 3rd season (Faneca actually getting guaranteed an entire 3rd season IIRC); had one decent/good year, followed by one lousy year (forget Faneca’s name-only probowl vote, as no G let up more sacks/pressures than he did in 2009); then the team chose to eat several million in guaranteed salary rather than keep him for one more season. 

    While Ferguson became an excellent player for us, and was a good guy who was easy to root for, it was hardly a stroke of genius to take him at #4 with Fabini and his then-unreliable, bad back as the incumbent starter. It was a Macc “least likely to bust” pick. But 2006 was also considered an unusually deep draft at tackle. Some didn’t pan out, of course, but was the team really better off with Ferguson+Clemens or would they have been better off with Ngata+Whitworth (which itself would have saved the 3rd+5th that was traded away for 10 healthy 2008 games of Kris Jenkins, followed by 2 more years of losing him early in the season)? Or even Cutler-Whitworth, which would have then bypassed the errors of Clemens ‘06, Pennington ‘07, Favre ‘08, and the repeated Sanchez ‘09 error + investment + double-down further investment. Nice butterfly effect, there. But yay we got a LT who was both excellent and reliable for like 5 of his 10 seasons.

    Mangini/Tannenbaum also got a bit Macc-Darnold lucky with no center - they cut Mawae a month & a half before the draft - and then stayed pat at #27 praying Mangold (a 1st round prospect) fell to us. If you want to use hindsight like this it still was no slam-dunk wisest move in flipping Abraham for Mangold. A young, stud edge rusher (who was still very productive through his age-35 season) is worth way more than a stud center whose career was over halfway through his age-32 season. It only makes it worse that Mawae was still productive (and mostly great at that) for 4 more seasons. And he was cut for what? For saying Pennington was like an egg back there, which he was and everyone knew it. 

    OL value? Applause for a Brad Smith pick - which there was plenty of - is tough when seeing how a 4x first team AP guard was on the board in Evans. That pick would have erased the Faneca error. But wildcat. Ditto Leon Washington with Brandon Marshall & Elvis Dumervil sitting there. Smith & Leon were good, but those guys he passed on to take them were elite. Never mind getting into taking the boar hunter so early. 

    He (with Tannenbaum) made some good moves and good picks, but Mangini was no savant. While I was ecstatic to have them replace the Herm/Bradway duo, I don’t get the hindsight romanticism of a coach who was honestly a loser. The best Mangini-Tannenbaum pick and best move was drafting Revis (which was then undone to a degree by getting cute - utterly foolish in hindsight - over the rookie contract terms).

    • Upvote 2

  13. There are a couple things wrong with the 3 classifications as presented. The most glaring is the strict adherence to arbitrarily-derived percentage cutoffs (>55%, 45-54.99%, <45%). While some may argue over a difference between 40% and 50% - I haven’t thought much about it myself - what would get unanimous agreement is the stupidity of suggesting there’s a statistically significant difference between 44.87% and 45.13% and, based on these numbers alone, then strictly classifying those offenses’ philosophies as “pass to set up the run” and “balanced” respectively. It’s about as convincing as suggesting that, on an open highway, one driving 55 mph is driving very safely while one driving 56 mph is driving unsafely (if not recklessly). It’s absurd, which is why state troopers don’t ticket you for going 1 mph over the speed limit. 

    These playcalling splits become still less significant when looking at just the first quarter stats of just one season. No different than suggesting a league-wide philosophy only looking at September games. You’re going to get a lot of noise in those stats. Noise that disappears as you look at more and more games. 

    Teams also often script their early plays to eliminate concerns over faulty radio equipment, stealing signs, or even early crowd noise before the fans settle down. They’re going to have to balance more, in doing so, to prevent inadvertently using a scripted running play on 3rd & 15 (unless Paul Hackett is still calling someone’s plays remotely). So by their very nature, teams using such scripted plays for their first 10-15 offensive snaps could skew more balanced and pass happy for no reason other than that. 

    There are passes and there are passes, as @nico002 mentions, but a pass is still a pass in that the play didn’t start out as a run but then it was decided - after the snap, mind you - to change it into a dumpoff. Also while some plays are clearly designed screens and short slants, it’s also clear to any football fan that many of those short passes are 2nd/3rd read checkdowns after the initial desire (a pass further downfield) was covered adequately. So that’s unconvincing from a pass vs. run standpoint. It’s either a pass play or it isn’t when the ball is snapped. 

    There are too many variables here to draw definitive conclusions on an entire offensive philosophy of each NFL team, even removing the arbitrarily derived, but very strictly enforced, cutoff ranges to define teams as such. 


  14. 6 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    lol no.  He's a "volume writer".  He's not well-connected and is rarely correct about a lot of his predictions.  But he'll crank out a 3,000 word column and that's what he's good for. 

    @Sperm Edwards or @Bleedin Green could do that just as well or better.  And in fact sometimes they do just that here but don't get paid for it.  

    3000 words is like a summary of a single chapter of mine. Or the first third of the chapter. 

    • Upvote 1

  15. On 2/17/2020 at 12:59 PM, RutgersJetFan said:

    A 3 billion dollar franchise literally rests on his shoulders. I think the standards you people set should be a little higher.

    There are plenty of things I can find fault with in our young QB's first 2 seasons. Despite all the eye-rolling I did, unless we find out he knew he was exposing himself to EBV  - like if the host patient told him so flat out - I can't really get on him for that. 

    Not every 22 year-old stayed away from kissing girls in his summer like you did, you role model you. 

    What's he supposed to do, get arranged dates with chaperones? OK actually that's not a bad idea, but it's also not very realistic to expect it. 

    It's not like he got the clap from sleeping with every hooker who took american express. 


  16. 12 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

    The difference is you can still play with herpes. (Or so I hear).

    I hate to say it but Old Man Yelling at Cloud actually has a point here. Intentional or not Darnold cost the team at least 5 games. Hard to say it's excusable due to commonality when he's the only guy this has happened to. Pretty stupid sh*t to have wreck a season if we're all being honest.

    His point was it was due to him not acting responsibly by contracting mono in the first place.

    If you can identify which girls are carrying mono - a person can have it and be asymptomatic for over a month, while some never develop severe symptoms at all - and identify them while asymptomatic, the way Charles Xavier finds mutants using Cerebro, then you should donate such expertise to local high schools instead of selfishly keeping it to yourself.

    It was totally ridiculous for him to get it -- we all had our WTF moments at the time. But it's also just bad luck. He's hardly the only single 21-22 year old to kiss a girl. "Stupid" wouldn't enter my mind, for something unforseen while doing what literally every unmarried player does, any more than an injury on the field.

    • Upvote 1

  17. On 2/16/2020 at 5:44 AM, Bowles Movement said:

    That statistic is average time to make a throw, not how long a QB has protection.  These are not the same thing.

    if Darnold s protection breaks down and he starts scrambling to buy time before making a throw, it inflates his Time to Throw stat.  In addition, if his receiver needs more time to get open before he can receive a throw, that also can impact this stat.  I’m not saying that his processing speed can’t and didn’t impact this number, but this is not an indicator of pass protection.


    as I said Sams protection was not good

    from pro football focus

    28. NEW YORK JETS

    The premier acquisition of the offseason for the Jets, Le’Veon Bell, failed to make the impact that New York had hoped for when it signed him to a big-time contract. The offensive line, paired with scheme, was a big part of that problem. The Jets averaged just 0.7 rushing yards before contact per attempt, the lowest mark of any team in the NFL. Add in that they allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 27.5% of their dropbacks (second-highest mark in the NFL), and it’s not hard to see why they find themselves at 28th on this list.

     

    22 hours ago, CTM said:

    Not the point, you said he improved in every measursble way. I gave you 2 in which he didnt, they are also the 2 most sophisticated measurement we have access to

    So when you see a Drew Brees (and others on that end) toss it in less than his 2.5 seconds average it also therefore skews the calculated time before pressure, since he's getting rid of it before pressure arrives. Still others generated more time before pressure by moving around themselves (whether because they roll out more by design or instinctively know when to step up into the pocket), creating more distance between them and rushers or so they’re not technically under pressure on that throw. These things all affect this stat. Further, there's surely a game or two the pass rush was on him in under that 2.5 average, but that doesn't mean the other 14-15 games he was under similar duress even though it affects the cumulative total. Plenty of plays he got hit holding it too long that you, just as well as I, had ok ur own internal clocks go off and yelled at the TV "get rid of it!" as he ate it instead of moving. And others see a window, a second open man, or check it down, faster than others, again skewing it because they're getting rid of it before there's pressure. He's taking more time to throw than almost all others. So even the pressure stat is tremendously induced by the QB himself, particularly when were talking about a fraction of a second cumulative average.

    No one doubts the line sucked. No one. But this "historically bad" pass blocking is not accurate either. It wasn't even worst in the league this one particular year under the narrow "under pressure" lens. 

    I like Darnold & think he could be a great QB in time, but he's not processing things quickly enough. Now he's just a young kid, and for some this occurs later than for others, but if you didn't see how Houston's line was even worse for Watson as he started his own career then you didn't watch any of those games. 

    • Like 1

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