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Sperm Edwards

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Everything posted by Sperm Edwards

  1. I probably would as well 9 times out of 10, but it depends on the position the team's in and which prospects are on the board. It's also different when it's a second #1 pick and not the only one you've got. That makes it easier, as we already saw the Jets use pick #11 on a much-needed LT prospect. The problem is you don't get the lower pair of 1s now. It's not pick 17 this year vs two later 1st rounders this year. That's why teams more or less universally agree to assign those values (with the obvious exception of the upper part of round 1 where the pick values skyrocket). You can make that pick conversion almost every year (though it'd require multiple trades to make it happen). Fans never want it, saying such trade-downs for lesser prospects are for suckers looking to accumulate lesser picks instead of taking the most elite player they can get a hold of who somehow slipped to that point. Those lesser-prospect picks would be referred to as trash, magic beans, the Mystery Box, and more. I think it's a puny minority of the board (with Cee Dee Lamb sitting there and the Jets desperate for a "true WR1" prospect) who would have advocated parlaying pick #17 into two future, lower 1st round picks in 2021 and 2022. People like you are saying this now because of one reason: we only know with the benefit of hindsight we were able to not only draft Mims in round 2, but trade down and still end up with Mims. At that time? Sorry but I'm going to call you and everyone here Hindsight Liars that you'd have said "Don't draft a desperately-needed WR1 there - a player pegged as a top 10 pick and holy f*** I can't believe our great luck - and instead trade that 1st round pick for future picks out of this draft entirely, and see what [lesser] WR falls to us in round 2." My bull***t-o-meter is off the scale on that prevarication. And for the whatever'th time, there's no evidence that the #17 pick was ever offered to us, so this is was always just an academic or "what if" discussion.
  2. Funny you'd bring up PFF. I don't place tremendous stock in their ranking as the be-all/end-all - they get some very right and some very wrong - but they gave him a lousy grade for last year. https://www.si.com/nfl/seahawks/gm-report/the-case-for-and-against-extending-seahawks-safety-bradley-mcdougald Top 20 safeties don't blow 12 tackles in 14 games. This pre-offseason he was rumored to be a borderline cap casualty at ~$4MM on a team paying their next two cheap 1st round picks for a safety looking to cash in at 5x that annual rate.
  3. He was good in 2018 - maybe even borderline top 20 at that time - but had a down year in 2019. Seattle fans can say what they want. There were once Jets fans that insisted Mark Sanchez was a top 20 QB. Opinions are like a-holes, and Seattle has many, many a-holes. If he was so magnificent then they wouldn't be burning their next two 1st round picks (plus a dash more) to upgrade from top 20. He'll add some solid veteran leadership to the secondary but we'll really want Davis to look good enough right away to start him+Maye.
  4. yes I said that as well: Totally agree this was a great deal for the Jets. There's no evidence of a better offer having been made (better on paper or otherwise), so I'm thrilled with this.
  5. Just to clarify: I never said we'd have been better off with pick #17 instead of these picks (not that such an offer was even there). I merely said the value on paper was greater that way if there was, since it was a scenario we discussed here plenty before the draft, and right up to the point Dallas made their pick without trading it. We'd need the benefit of hindsight to know which scenario is actually better. Just like it's obvious pick #10 is more valuable than pick #110. But once they become players and not just picks, the value can - and often does - change dramatically with respect to the original draft slot. Also the comparison would not be Mims + Seattle's compensation vs Cee Dee Lamb alone. We wouldn't have been docked our 2nd rounder and would have taken someone else, of course; or potentially we would have ended up with Lamb AND Mims. The comparison would be Lamb (or another player if that's what Douglas would've done) vs Seattle's compensation. And even that presumes a theoretical offer with Dallas would have been limited to just the #17 pick with nothing else thrown in beyond that.
  6. McDougald had between nominal and zero trade value at the time this trade was made. Rosters were set and no one is injured yet. Only way Seattle could get something for him is if someone else lost their SS before (or during) the season - or their own handpicked starter was so terrible he needed to be benched - and became desperate enough to cough up a 6th or 7th rounder to save the current season. This year he’ll be a 30 year-old coming off a disappointing season, and is a UFA after the season is over. While I’d agree it’s likely, it’s not even a sure thing he makes the Jets roster. As of right now he costs little (1/34 of his 2020 salary per week, or a hair over $100K/week) to see what he’s got. He was a throw-in on the trade, but the duo they want to start (Maye/Davis) make so little - $3MM cap charge between them - that the positional cost is still low even with McDougald. That, plus Maye hasn’t exactly been an ironman and veterans are more reliable for injury fill-in work than other backups. Also wouldn’t be shocked to see Douglas approach McDougald with a pay cut offer if Davis looks good enough to start at FS right away.
  7. No, I’m not forgetting. The trade offer at the deadline in 2019 did not include the 1st round pick in 2020. That was about player(s)-for-player(s) swap, and Dallas balked at Douglas’s asking price. I was referring to the possibility of an offer from Dallas AFTER the 2019 season was over and the draft slot was already known. We discussed it here plenty, and the reason was simple: Dallas expressed interest in him before, so they’d be the most likely to have the greatest interest now. Plus their pick isn’t too high (nor too low). In actuality we have no knowledge - not even a rumor - that Dallas in fact offered their 1st round pick. It’s just that if they did make such an offer, leading up to the draft, then this would amount to a lesser trade on paper.
  8. I said in the opening post with this discussion that it was only IF there was such an offer then this is worth less in trade. I don’t agree that Douglas or Gase was hell-bent on keeping Adams until this past month. Either/both of them (or anyone in the Jets’ FO) said what they did because otherwise it is a totally unnecessary, self-inflicted wound that eliminates their fallback position of eventually extending Adams. They’d be cutting their own balls off if they told the world they want to dump him no matter how low the top offer is. Another way of looking at it, and I think the more accurate way, is to look at the actual series of events, both known and presumed: Douglas surely caught wind of the kind of numbers Adams was seeking, and further that he’d be seeking it already in the 2020 season. So he made it known that he was open to trading Adams as early as the week(s) leading into the 2019 trade deadline. That didn’t go off the table after the season, and there isn’t a GM in the league that held back from making an offer because of the thought, “Oh well, I guess now the Jets want to keep Adams forever; I best not waste my valuable time making any offers.” They all know what was going on because they play the same game with their own players they’d like to move if the right offer came in. It makes no sense to have a desire to trade Adams in October and then want to keep him - with no extension, much to the player’s dismay - after the season is over. Douglas gives Adams some lip service about looking into his contract/extension after the season without actually being committal on it. (e.g. something like, “Well we can’t extend you by CBA mandate at this time, but we all agree here you’ve outplayed your rookie deal and will address it after this season,” where “address it” can mean 2 different things depending on one’s POV). Adams interprets that as a team promise to give him an extension. Yet no extension came. It leaks to the public Adams is not only still insulted about being on the trade block in Oct, but is miffed about not getting a huge pay raise. He wasn’t exactly secretive about his discontent. Still no offer came in from the Jets, who continued to pay mere lip service about wanting Jamal around for the long term, but without putting their money where their mouth is. From whichever camp I don’t recall, but the public becomes aware of the Adams demands/desires to be paid like one of the league’s top defenders, “well above” $20MM per season. The draft came and went without a good enough offer. Douglas was supposedly still seeking two 1st rounders (or that was his opening line in the sand before actual close offers came in). Even the biggest Adams fans thought that was unrealistic. Then after the draft Adams tried other ways of taking matters into his own hands, including tweeting a list of teams he’d be willing to go to without an extension until after the season. Still no movement from the Jets because there was no offer good enough. Also offers probably dried up in part because in the spring the prospect of a season looked closer to 50-50 (or at times, worse). It’s now late July. The league and NFLPA have reached agreements. The season is now just weeks away and - barring a major uptick in covid spread - every indication now points to them playing. Training camp is about to start. There’s also an additional news leak that Woody made some bigoted comments, and Adams calls him out on it. Pete Carroll has an unhealthy obsession with the SS position, yet his own SS sucks (12 missed tackles in 14 games is an eyepopping number) and is a UFA after the season anyway. Carroll comes in with the Douglas Dream of two 1st round picks (plus a little padding, since he gets the player now but doesn’t have to give up anything until next year). The 2020 draft is already in the rear view mirror so this is the best offer Douglas can get (unless a worse team made the same offer, which couldn’t happen because only a current contender with a specific SS hole/need would make such an offer in the first place). The too-simple (if not wishful) way of looking at it is, “Adams criticized Woody so they traded him.” A whole lot happened in addition to that, and with the recent announcements/agreements that the season is moving forward, and it’s just convenient to ignore it all.
  9. lol I have a guilty conscience so yes I thought it was directed at me. That thought process, though, is no different than drafting one’s original slot every year vs. trading down for a higher pick in a future draft. Instead of trading down for the pick that became Mims, Douglas should have been furiously trading for a future 1st rounder, regardless of the slot, next year or the year after. Sometimes trading for next year’s picks for this year’s pick/player turns out great, as the future pick ends up being much better than expected. Sometimes not so, as Oakland found out in the Mack trade. They probably lost the equivalent of a 1st rounder plus another day 2 pick (at least) when Chicago went from 5 wins to 12 with the Mack trade sandwiched in between. We don’t have that type of downside. The worst that can happen is Seattle is in the next 2 superbowls and even then it isn’t nearly the loss in draft capital that Oakland realized. And yes while it seems really unlikely where we sit today, it is possible there’s a total collapse in Seattle and one of them turns into a future top 10 pick.
  10. I think it’s a long shot at this point that they’re cancelling the season. It was “very much” in doubt 2+ months ago. Now there is still some doubt but nothing like it was. The thing that’s most in doubt is whether or not there’ll be just a couple or if it’s no games that have fans in the stands. But I admit I’m not as up on these developments as many/most. And as much as this year is in doubt, this college season can be just as much in doubt (if not more, since if there’s a mutation + spread for the worse in the fall, colleges will be more pressured than the NFL to close again, and move classes back to Zoom & Google Meet). Those top few football prospects entering this college season might be easier to gauge, but these won’t be top 5-10 picks we’re getting from Seattle. That 2021 1st rounder we get from Seattle may end up going to a prospect that would have been a 4th rounder (or worse) if the full college season was played under normal conditions. If the season is canceled the only thing that clearly swings the trade in our favor is we didn’t lose a year of Adams (there will be no discrepancy between the year we gave up the player and the year we start getting picks for the player). Adams is 24. He turns 25 in October, is already playing at his peak level, and doesn’t play a position that hits a wall & drops off suddenly at age 28. His age is a total non-factor.
  11. I’m not pouting at all. I’m 100% thrilled with it. I just like being contrarian. You know this lol. And 100% agree on Carroll. Yes that’s one reason he gave up so much. The other is his total disregard to any wisdom in how to use his 1st round picks. He loves to parlay his 1st rounders into more picks. That’s fine when you’re starting way up top in round 1 with a draft chart that isn’t at all linear. That’s how Indy can move down just 3 slots and get three more high picks for their troubles. Carroll loves to be the trading-down draft dealer and it almost always blows up in his face. He should be combining his picks to move up to slots that give him a greater chance of success because he needs it. I think that colored his decision on Adams as well. Take your pick of any Seattle 1st rounders (or the picks they turned into) for the past drafts since Russell Wilson got him picking in the 20s and 30s every year. Weighed against those draftees, if you think that he’d have drafted more of the same, making this trade was as much a no-brainer for Seattle as it was for the Jets.
  12. I’m thrilled with the trade, but this is not anywhere close to the 7th pick this year. In terms of trade value, on paper it’s a lot closer to the 7th pick in round 2 in the current draft (since we gave up the player this year not in future years). You can move the exact slot up or down 5 slots as you see fit, since we won’t know the exact pick until the seasons are over, but “this one is coming in at”: 2021 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 340 2022 pick #24 = 2020 pick #24 = 150 2021 upgrade from presumed middle round 4 to pick #24 in round 3 = roughly the value of 2021 pick #24 in round 4, which = 2020 pick #24 in round 5 = 30 (not factoring in 2 rounds of comp picks but stick with this). McDougald = has no trade value as a 30 year-old SS with 1 year left on his contract, coming off a down season. He would have been cut after this trade if he wasn’t thrown in. In one’s dreams he carries a 2020 6th round value, so let’s even generously throw in 20 chart value points here just to be nice. 340 + 150 + 30 + 20 = 540 chart points = pick #36 overall = pick #4 in round 2 There is no way that any team would ever surrender its current 7th overall pick in exchange for a perennial playoff team’s upcoming 2 future 1st rounders a year and 2 years later. Still less when that perennial playoff team just replaced one of its weakest starters with (what we’re told is) the league’s best starter at the position. Curious about pasting that expression here, since Douglas is the one who held out for top dollar until after the 2020 draft was over. It’s a fun expression to use on someone who lost, after the fact, but no one says it when someone wisely held out for more. The real problem with that expression is following it to its natural end leads to far more foolish behavior: namely, always taking the first offer one gets.
  13. As I’ve acknowledged, there’s no evidence there was any deal to be had with Dallas for their 1st rounder this year (nor that even if there was, that it was even-up Adams for the pick). The whole discussion just stemmed from an “if” post. But “if” in those cases, then he believed he’d get more and instead got less. Being a line-in-the-sand type only a good thing when it pans out. e.g. Idzik used to stick to his guns like that (for weeks the top offer for Revis didn’t involve a 1st rounder; he got it by not caving. But that same attitude also caused him to miss out on some players he needed and wanted, and probably affected trades up & down in his drafts). So with Anderson - a player he was fielding calls for in trade - a 4th rounder wasn’t deemed enough. Instead he got nothing, which means starting at the point the Jets were already eliminated from the playoffs, in effect he traded a 4th round pick to get half a year out of a player to whom he’d make no extension offers. He also turned down an offer, allegedly from Baltimore, of “blockbuster of picks it thought New York could not turn down” for QW (though that was at least in part because they just paid him >$20MM which would accelerate to - and thus hamper - the upcoming 2020 season’s spending ability). If QW starts to play like the beast he was drafted to be, then turning that down was a smart move. If not...well the 2020 offseason was not $20MM short since there was enough to be moved around in others’ contracts to have the same FA period he just had. And then this would mean he gave up an entire draft’s worth of picks - and possibly more - for QW. We all hope he was right to stick with this player instead. Then this one, which is a pure hypothetical based on Dallas showing serious interest in Adams before the trade deadline last year — indicating for all his talk to the contrary, by then Douglas caught wind of what Adams was seeking on an extension, how early he wanted that extension, and had already decided an eventual Adams extension was just a fallback position & what he was seeking was a pair of 1s. In this case, because it was future 1s, they carry less trade value on paper, but it’s still a good haul for a miserable player who isn’t worth the extension he was seeking. Sometimes the reason these guys turn down an offer is they catch wind of someone else having even greater interest, even if it never makes it to the public. Just like there’s every likelihood this offer from Seattle wasn’t their opening offer, suggesting Douglas turned down something very close to it, yet we never heard a whisper about it. I’m thrilled with Douglas as GM. That doesn’t therefore mean holding out for more doesn’t have its downsides.
  14. I think it’s a damn solid deal for us as well. My whole question was weighing it against a potential trade for Dallas’ #17 pick, not whether or not Douglas was right to pull the trigger on this yesterday. That was it. Just like passing on a 4th rounder for R.Anderson, then not extending him at that time, and then not making a particularly strong push for him in March. So even if Douglas did turn down #17 in April, because a lone 1st rounder wasn’t as good a headline as a 1st plus more, and even if that was worth more on paper, here in late July Douglas is in the spot he’s in now, not the spot he was in back in April. Looked at through that lens, the right move was clear.
  15. Perhaps yes, but perhaps no. Everything changes everything so one doesn’t know the result of the butterfly effect. Maybe we’d have drafted Lamb and he’d have been a total bust; in that case what we’ve got now is ridiculously better. Maybe we’d have also kept our original 2nd rounder and would have taken some overvalued college stud whose game doesn’t translate as well to the next level, making the team that much better still this way. Maybe Mims will always have nagging injuries that prevent him from reaching his potential (or perhaps that potential was overrated from the start), but just enough of a tease that Douglas steers clear of acquiring other WRs in his stead, in which case this is not only worse short term but also long term. Maybe we’d have doubled up on the OL and still ended up with Mims, and the team would have been better off long term because the guard we reach for with Seattle’s 1st rounder never turns into a reliable starter (let alone a stud). There’s also the other aspect, which I’ve brought up twice and others have mentioned before that, which is the 2021 pick(s) may be outright busts because we weren’t able to properly evaluate them after this covid college season. Unless that extra 2022 pick is gangbusters out of the gate, this superior long term value wouldn’t be realized until 2023 or 2024 when he hits his stride. Hard to say which is more valuable. The picks on paper are worth less this way, but picks don’t take the field; the prospects we drafted with those picks do. Also I said from the start it’s not known such a trade offer was even on the table; only that Dallas was interested in trading for Adams within the past year and they had a pick right around what Adams’ value should have been, but as likely as not Dallas valued their cheap #17 pick more than Jamal Adams seeking $22MM/year.
  16. No, you’re reading the chart wrong. You’re assuming - incorrectly - that a pick next year carries the same trade value as a pick this year. Then you’re compounding the mistake & doubling down on it by further assuming a pick 2 years from now carries the same trade value as a pick today in that same slot. That’s not how draft pick trades are valued. Look at the trade for the pick that became Brandon Shell. Macc traded a Jets’ 2017 4th rounder so he could add a 5th rounder in the 2016 draft. That is how draft picks are valued in the NFL. So next year’s pick #25 (or whatever number) is worth less than pick #25 this year. Pick #25 two years from now is worth still less in trade. I’m thoroughly enjoying the new Nut. Glad to still have you around here.
  17. Then I’ll have to have more children so I can name a couple of them Douglas.
  18. I think you have it reversed, but yes. Even more so given how highly regarded this past draft class was, and even more that it was so in the specific areas the team needed help the most. When you trade down in round 1 this year for a #1 the following year, the expectation is to get back a high pick (if not a 1st rounder) this year, not also a pick in year 3. I think you're getting caught up in the nominal label of a 1st round pick. You should know from your former intern buddy at a minimum, outside the top of round 1 where the values are so disproportionately higher, if you want to acquire a pick in a given round this year, you give up a pick 1 round higher next year. If you want to pick up an extra 5th rounder and don't have enough picks this year to move up, then the price is your 4th rounder next year; and so on for other rounds. Trade-wise Seattle's 2021 20-something 1st round pick has the trade value of a 2020 second round pick. Their 2022 20-something 1st round pick has the trade value of a 2020 third round pick (indirectly, one round at a time, because I don't think I've ever seen such a trade made). The only way that'd even out where Adams was traded for 1st round value is if we got use of him on the field this year and then traded him after the season. As it is they got the player this year and cough up no picks until next year and the year after that. It looks great on paper to say two #1 picks, but a pick two years from now isn't equivalent to a pick today. It just isn't. In terms of trade value on paper, this is a 2020 second rounder plus a 2020 third rounder (plus upgrade our 2021 4th to 2021 late 3rd). If you tried to acquire the #17 overall pick and offered that up in return, you'd have no takers. Also if this is the top offer from any team, then if I'm Douglas I make this 10x out of 10 before Seattle comes to its senses. Truth is they're a disaster with their 1st round picks anyway.
  19. Pinning a 7-9 season on a GM who arrived in May, after FA and the draft were over? Rough crowd.
  20. Like I just said to your pops, personal preference aside it carries a lower trade value.
  21. Well sure there was a reason. He was already unhappy, vocal about it, outright publicly calling the GM a liar, and frankly the Jets already seemed resigned to not spending $20MM+/year on a friggin' box safety (let alone after just 3 seasons when they had him locked up for about that amount for the upcoming three; presumably Douglas can add and multiply). Beyond that you can certainly believe what you like. Your personal preference aside, a current mid-teen 1st rounder carries a higher trade value than a pick in the mid-20s a year later plus another in the mid-20s a year after that. Expecting them to be lower-half 20s picks because of adding future HOFer Jamal Adams. And it's good to see you more yourself, other than the lack of insults hurled my way. You're allowed .
  22. You're not thinking it through, then, because you're ignoring when the picks occur. In terms of trade value, unless you're talking about very high 1st round picks (e.g. top 5-10), typical trade value is a round loss per year. Trading a 2nd round pick next year gets you a 3rd round pick this year. Trading a low 1st round pick this year gets you a 2nd round pick next year (so long as you don't think it's likely a very low slot, which Seattle probably will have). To exaggerate the point for illustrative purposes, you wouldn't trade #17 in 2020 for #27 in 2026 and another in 2027. Rare exceptions aside - like everyone believing next year's class to be far superior to this one - a pick this year is worth more than a pick next year. Even more so with covid possibly clouding the 2021 class prospect evaluations in a way not seen since pre-internet + digital footage. You wouldn't take two later, future late 1s over an immediate pick at #17. If you tried making that trade the other way around you couldn't get it because every GM in the league would hang up on you. The way that'd work is it'd have to be 2020 #17 for Seattle's low 2020 1st round pick plus their (presumed) low 2021 1st round pick. But no way you can get pick #17 for lower-slot picks without giving up anything in the current draft. Even Maccagnan, at his very worst, wouldn't do that.
  23. I didn't say it existed. I said IF there was such an opportunity, then this isn't as good. Dallas expressed interest in Adams before, and it's hard to believe they'd think they could get him without including a 1st round pick or more. It's not a far-fetched wild guess like wondering if New England made the same offer. I also said I'm 100% behind this trade, and further said if there wasn't any such offer for a 2020 1st round draft pick - from Dallas or anyone else - and this is the top offer he got, then it's an A+ trade. Beyond that, yes of course I was guessing at where Seattle picks will be. Both teams are making those same (educated; not blind) guesses, and they are/were both probably figuring the picks to be right around there. If Seattle believed their 2021 pick would be in the teens or better, they probably wouldn't make this same trade. They probably think - with good reason - that they were likely to end up with a pick at #25 or worse before this trade, and Adams being on the team makes at least the 2021 pick, if not both picks, lower. Douglas probably thinks so as well, though it goes without saying there's a chance it could be several slots higher, just like after the Richardson trade. But the trade was made based on the assumption that Seattle will be a top team, with an excellent chance of at least reaching the NFCCG (though picks 27-28 would mean they didn't even get that far).
  24. I think you're misunderstanding me. I'm referring to a rumored or rumored-proposed trade offer for Dallas' 2020 draft pick (#17) not their 2021 draft pick.
  25. No you wouldn't. No one would. You're just (understandably) excited about the trade. You absolutely would not trade pick #17 this year - in a draft with no evaluation disadvantages, which is further stacked up top at our top positional needs - for presumed pick around #27 next year and another in the same range the year after that. You'd do it - maybe, depending on how the board looks at that time - if you were getting back #27 this year plus #27 next year. But not #27 next year plus #27 in year 3. No way.

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