Doggin94it

This is a crazy take. Last year's D was set up to have Carl Lawson as it's engine - dictating protections, freeing up Q/JFM/Rankins in a system (Wide 9) predicated on edge pressure. The LB group was a known project (Moseley plus a low budget reclamation project in Davis & two late round rookies making position changes) and a secondary that was supposed to be young CBs stabilized by veteran safeties (Maye & Joyner) who both went out for the year. The idea that you had high expectations because they spent five fourth, fifth, and sixth round draft picks on the D is insanity. No team should be expecting pics in the fourth and fifth round or later to play major roles as rookie starters. That doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it's an outlier that nobody should be expecting. this year is going to be very different in terms of what reasonable expectations are, especially if Lawson comes back healthy. Second year in the system, premium assets available at pass rusher and cornerback, and guys like carter, echols, and Pinnock all having a track record. I'm still concerned about the run defense and the linebackers, but it's fair to expect more. If you were expecting anything else but a bad defense last year, I don't know what you were thinking

Yes, potentially - but I think they'd have a hard time showing it was the last two that made all the difference

No. The typical mechanism is cutting the player and not paying the unguaranteed portion, but the Browns guaranteed it all. And they expressly waived their right to void the deal and recover the signing bonus if he's suspended based on activity that was disclosed to them before signing him.

Also, it's purely rational. You can't get the same high from victory if you aren't that invested, so switching becomes impossible; we all know it wouldn't mean very much

This exactly. My bet is that they get their "indefinite and don't even ask for reinstatement for a year" ban, and that reinstatement will require some serious testimony from therapists, victim organizations, etc. I think it'll be at least a season and a half, probably more.

Could take Peppers for Carolina

You'd just have to do a 1-for-1 swap with Merlin Olsen

Right. But if (like me) you have White from Philly and Butler from GB you can flip White to GB and take Dawkins from Philly. (or at least if you think White's 8/6 Philly/GB split makes him eligible from both)

Interesting question: Dawkins or Butler?

Jerome Brown

QB 1 Peyton Manning - Colts QB 2 Drew Brees - Saints RB Jim Brown - Browns RB Earl Campbell - Titans (Oilers) RB Walter Payton - Bears WR Jerry Rice - 49ers WR Randy Moss - Vikings WR Calvin Johnson - Lions LT Tony Boselli - Jaguars LG John Hannah - Patriots C Dwight Stephenson - Dolphins RG Larry Allen - Cowboys RT Dan Dierdorf - Cardinals TE Tony Gonzalez - Chiefs TE Antonio Gates - Chargers DE Bruce Smith - Bills DT Aaron Donald - Rams DT Geno Atkins - Bengals DE JJ Watt - Texans EDGE Lawrence Taylor - Giants DL Joe Greene - Steelers DL Reggie White - Eagles LB Derrick Brooks - Bucs LB Ray Lewis - Ravens LB Luke Keachley - Panthers CB Deion Sanders - Falcons CB Darrelle Revis - Jets CB Darrell Green - Washington FS Earl Thomas - Seahawks SS LeRoy Butler - Packers K Jason Elam - Broncos P Ray Guy - Raiders

A lot of drug-based suspensions, mostly repeat offenders. Generally it's either "you did this a whole hell of a lot" or "you did something really awful" Watson hits both of those

Yes. Also, if you look at how indefinite suspensions handed down by the league get handled, here's the list since 2007: Vick (2007) - 2 years Ray Rice (2014) - overturned on appeal Adrian Peterson (2014) - 6 mos Myles Garrett (2019) - 6 mos Odell Thurman (2008) - never reinstated Travis Henry (2008) - 4 years Johnny Jolly (2010) - 3 years Tanard Jackson (2010) - 1 year Tanard Jackson (2012) - 2 years Justin Blackmon (2013) - never reinstated Fred Davis (2014) - 1 year Tanard Jackson (yes, again, 2014) - never reinstated Aldon Smith (2015) - 5 years Trey Watts (2015) - never reinstated LaRon Landry (2015) - never reinstated Silas Redd (2016) - 8 months Sammie Lee Hill (2016) - never reinstated Rolando McClain (2016) - never reinstated Martavis Bryant (2018) - never reinstated Josh Gordon (2019) - 1 year, then another year after violating the terms of a conditional reinstatement Most of those last a looong time, even discounting the "never reinstated" fringe guys who no team was interested enough in signing (so they never bothered applying for reinstatement). With 26 separate accusations, if the NFL investigation believes the accusations are real, I'd be surprised if he's back in less than a year and a half. He already got that signing bonus, yep. But his contract tolls. If the league really wants to screw with the Browns, keep Watson out for 4 years and let him come back in 2026 as a 31 year old who hasn't played in 4 years - and who the Browns will then owe 230M over the next 5 years

Don't confuse short term outlook and expectations for long term. Jones is the right choice in that role if that's what you're looking for as a ceiling. Right now the Jets want that from Zach as a step on his path, not as his final evolution

Cager is now a TE

Yes, that's exactly what's going to happen, especially because the plan is to shift JFM inside on passing downs. But if they are only keeping one it will be Martin, given that they're not going to cut him after signing him as a free agent

Again, how do you not drown in a light rain? That's not how any of this works.

Lol. There's zero chance you litigate if you think "post-deposition" is "as soon as they were filed" or a suggestion of a lowball number. And zero chance you're a lawyer if you think "where's the criminal charge" means "he definitely didn't commit a crime" But I'm happy to be proven wrong - feel free to DM me your bar card. At the very worst, I'll have a name to warn clients away from if anyone asks if I've heard anything

Given that you drive a Subaru I'm willing to take that risk

OK. My opinion is your expectations are silly and make as much sense as evaluating a sports car by towing capacity, but it's a free country.

leave us out of it, man

No. Given the offense, the only one of those that's likely on the table at all (just due to volume of passing) is completion percentage. And expecting a 7-point bump in a single year is too much. Shift your expectations over to advanced stats like Yards per attempt, yards per completion, DPOA - things that don't depend primarily on volume.

How do you not drown in a light rain? No. As someone who does this for a living, that's not how this works. Settlements are for risk mitigation and certainty. If you're suing me for 100k, and i think you have a 30% chance of prevailing but can settle with you for 10K, i should settle even though I think I'm going to stomp you in court if we go to trial. The mere fact of a settlement doesn't tell you anything at all about how each party evaluated its chances - just that whatever that evaluation was, it overlapped with their adversary's.

I think if that's your metric you're destined for disappointment - yards and TDs are volume stats and this offense will still be rush heavy, and top half of the league in completion percentage would be a huge jump. I'll take a final 8 games that project out to Warfish's numbers or better over a full season.

See, that's why I was never on team "let him sit behind a vet to start the year" last season. 2021 was always going to be a growth-and-development year, not a wins-and-push-for-the-playoffs year. Under those circumstances, you do what's better for the 2022 team (play the kid, let him get his lumps out of the way and start the growth), not what gives you the best chance to win ultimately meaningless games. The only reason not to is if you're afraid the QB is so mentally fragile that failure will break him, or that bad reps will breed bad habits. ETA: On that topic, do you think there's anyone in the Bears organization who's sitting there today going "thank God we started Andy Dalton and Nick Foles for 7 games instead of letting Fields play, he's so much better off"? Not that the Bears have a clue how to help a young QB, but still.