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Everything posted by johnnysd

  1. Yeah but you seem to be missing the point that they got pick 14 so they got approximate value for the pick. And the values of the pick are based on essentially likelihood to be a good player and guard is one of the safest positions to draft so the whole concept of never trading for a guard is just nonsensical.
  2. 49ers ran 12 personnel 10% of the time last year. Green Bay used it 29% of the time. SF used 11 48% of the time and 21 which with Deebo morphed into 11 often 34% of the time GB used 11 61% of the time So the statement that SF is using 12 personnel to dominate their conference is completely false. In fact, only 2 teams used it less in the entire NFL. Also 12 personnel is most effective when you have a lead and GB obviously had a lead. Obviously these are the 2 offenses closest to us, so we will likely run 12 no more than 20% of the time
  3. I don't know where this is coming from but the bolded are completely incorrect: Jets trade: #23 760 points #66 260 points and #86 160 points for a total of 1180 points Minnesota trades #14 1100 points #143 34.5 points 1134.5 points Difference 65.5 points or roughly pick #114
  4. I said it was based on money. But what I was saying is the majority of bettors on both sides are not closet Cynthia Freuland's so that number is more indicative of sort of hive mind emotion than factual analysis.
  5. The concept of this thread is ridiculous. Vegas lines have basically no predictive value. They are simply the point at which they can get roughly equal money on both sides. That's how they guarantee profit. So the bettors themselves determine the line and it is just folly to think that the majority of bettors are any better at analysis of NFL teams, players and seasons.
  6. Yes but running games tend to lad behind passing very early in seasons. And we will have the crowd frenzied.
  7. Green Bay is an interesting game for us because they are in Europe the week before and is just a classic trap game for them and we usually play them tough. Agree that Denver is way overrated and Wilson has been regressing. I think we beat Baltimore because they are usually slow out of the gate, run blocking can be more difficult to get early in a season and I am not sure Lamar Jackson will continue to be as effective just like what happened with Cam.
  8. 09/11 Sunday Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM EDT WIN 09/18 Sunday at Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM EDT LOSS 09/25 Sunday Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 PM EDT WIN 10/02 Sunday at Pittsburgh Steelers 1:00 PM EDT WIN 10/9 Sunday Miami Dolphins 1:00 PM EDT WIN 10/16 Sunday at Green Bay Packers 1:00 PM EDT WIN 10/23 Sunday at Denver Broncos 4:05 PM EDT LOSS 10/30 Sunday New England Patriots 1:00 PM EDT WIN 11/06 Sunday Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM EST LOSS 11/13 BYE WEEK 11/20 Sunday at New England Patriots 1:00 PM EST WIN 11/27 Sunday Chicago Bears 1:00 PM EST WIN 12/04 Sunday at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 PM EST LOSS 12/11 Sunday at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM EST LOSS 12/18 Sunday Detroit Lions 1:00 PM EST WIN 12/22 Thursday Jacksonville Jaguars 8:15 PM EST WIN 01/01 Sunday at Seattle Seahawks 4:05 PM EST LOSS TBD TBD at Miami Dolphins Time TBD LOSS 10-7 and we back into a wildcard
  9. If it somehow how did happen than Zach would have to play as bad or worse than last year, our coaches would have to suck and our draft picks would need to bust. And everyone would be fired. This team is just not that bad. In fact we are actually a talented team but everyone refuses to see it.
  10. I just do not agree with this. Our TE room was a solid 32nd in the league last year. Now our room is solidly Top 10 overall. If that is ALL we did this offseason we would win more games than last year. Further from free agency: We went from a terrible guard to literally a Pro Bowler. We added an excellent strong safety and a plus level starting corner and depth on the DL. We lost Crowder. Our defense cannot really be worse than last year. Then we added conservatively one of the top 2 corners, one of the Top 3 WR one of the Top 2 RBs and a TE that was as high as #1 on many boards. There is no way this team does not win more than 3 and in my opinion 7 or 8 is overly conservative. Remember that every year 20% of the good teams get worse and 20% of the bad teams get better but all these predictions are based on the good teams staying good and mediocre teams getting worse which is not what happens.
  11. As a Californian that sometimes needs to work with companies in other time zones, it can be quite easy to double correct or correct the wrong way. I have done it. It's easy to hate on Geno but it could have been a legitimate mistake. I have done it.
  12. Fair point. The Jets have certainly not drafted to be GNP but every balanced as you mentioned. I think Saleh is smart enough to recognize what the offense looks like but I guess I was commenting on what I think Saleh personally believes. I am so impressed with what they have done the last couple of years in drafting a QB and then following that with everything they can to surround him with talent. Buffalo did as well. But then you look at what we did with Sanchez, Geno and Sam and it's just criminal.
  13. EPA stats never really pass the smell test IMO. It is an abstraction applied to an abstraction and is essentially a circular argument. It does not consider personnel groupings, play call, scheme and especially completely ignores surrounding cast. In the case of a QB all credit and blame is assigned to the QB. As an example, it weighs the talent Zach had at the end of the season exactly the same as if he had a full compliment of his playmakers. Said differently it assumes all QBs have the same level of talent around them which is dumb. It also does not adjust at all for drops or mistakes by the offense either. But it is even worse than that. Sacks are particularly penal in the calculation so if you have a crappy OL you will get incredibly dinged in EPA because of taking unavoidable stats. It also rewards conservative play as any positive yardage will yield some level of positive EPA especially in field goal range, so taking 3 yards on 3rd and 11 is considered much better than say a drop 15 yards down the field. In terms of Zach, last season is always going to look awful in this method. His surrounding cast was WELL above average in dropped passes and WELL below average in contested catch rate. Analytics without context are close to completely useless. The only really valid analysis that PFF provides are the grades they give OL (and even then it has incomplete context) because essentially they are grading how effective he was at pass blocking or run blocking on each play, but even then he may have missed his assignment that sacks the QB but he successfully blocked someone else. To my eye I would rate them this way: 1st half of season : Jones Mills Lawrence Zach Fields INC 2nd half of season Mills Jones Zach Lawrence Fields
  14. I think there are still quite a few head coaches that want that as their offensive strategy, including our own but I think it is very difficult to accomplish in the NFL right now. First you will have less possessions so you really need a Top defense and consistently win the turnover ball. Second you need to be excellent in the red zone. Third it is difficult to get the personnel to run it. In addition to good RBs you need you need good run blocking offensive lineman and they are harder and harder to find because of the emphasis on passing in college. G&P only works if you have the lead. So what happens is you can win against lesser opponents even get pretty far in the playoffs if you have all the parts in place, but very hard to win it all because elite passing offenses mostly still beat great defenses, but then your team is unable to win high scoring games. It worked against us because we were so weak on offense
  15. I actually liked his podcasts. In between all the talks about his wife and travels and the super long commercials as you mentioned there was good info there. It was pretty easy to watch and just skip over all the crap.
  16. Way I see it our schedule is tough and our defense although MUCH better in the back end is still woefully inept and slow at LB and weak against the run up the middle. So we will be behind in many games and rushing mostly goes out the window when you are behind. We will pass a lot this year and put up some pretty big yardage numbers.
  17. Jets will be Top 10 in offense. Depends somewhat on injuries as always but the Jets offense is loaded. You just refuse to see it.
  18. I keep thinking a Darnold for Mayfield trade makes a lot of sense. Two QBs in sort of the same never never land. Not a win-win situation sort of a push-push situation but both really should not be on the teams they are on. In a related note I think Rhule does not last the season. Glad we dodged that bullet. I think the 49ers would keep Jimmy rather than risk him going to Seattle in a release.
  19. In this case I am not thinking that they would look to have him be a blocker or play inline. He would strictly be a Y receiver that could present all types of matchup issues since the opposing team would likely be in base defense. Like I said I can see his role as a receiving TE which could have a lot of impact. Ruckert, Conklin and Uzomah could hold the fort on blocking and inline roles and I am sure Cager can block well enough for his role. So more of a big 6th receiver than a TE.
  20. Very true. Hopefully better corners and a player like Whitehead can make up the difference otherwise we are going to get screened to death again. And there is ZERO way the defense is the strength of this team. Honestly I think we will still be bottom 10. We might be Top 10 in offense.
  21. Geno was actually good last year but came up short in a couple game winning chances. I would think he gets the nod over Lock. People are expecting Wilson to be a monster in Denver but I am not sure I see it. Teams are getting better and better at neutralizing him.
  22. I think Cager makes the team as a sort of non blocking Y receiver in 12 personnel sets that are really more like 11. Can he stay healthy is the question. We likely keep 4 TEs
  23. Lol great way to just casually dismiss 26 legal accusations and several others that are not seeking anything. Lol at least misogynistic slut shaming is alive and well. And people wonder why more sexual assaults are not prosecuted....
  24. We will see. I don't pretend to know anything more than you but I disagree with almost every single one, especially HUFF. if Huff is not on the team he will be traded, not cut but I just do not see the Jets giving up on him at all. If anyone steps up on specials Hardee could easily be cut or traded. I think Guidry is a wild card. If he can ramp up specials he could easily make it over Hardee.
  25. Just off memory seemed like he had a small series of subpar games but came back strong, and I think everyone believes he is stronger inside both as a pash rusher and as a run stopper.
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