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JohnnyHector

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Everything posted by JohnnyHector

  1. These are not mutually exclusive propositions. And if Occam's Razor was involved, Lenk or Colburn probably planted it there.
  2. The Mets have a finite window to capitalize on the fact that they're paying their top 4 starters only marginally more money (~$6.5m total, which includes projected arb number for Harvey) than they owe Carlos Beltran, Bobby Bonilla, and Bret Saberhagen this year ($5.1m), and they're blowing it. This is the best opportunity they will have to significantly improve the team before having to pay their aces and they're wasting it. That is what's truly pathetic. I would even quibble with the way they spent the little money they did this offseason. I'd rather have spent 4/$32m on O'Day than 2/$16.5m on Cabrera and would've gladly cashed in De Aza's $5.5m and Colon's $7.25 for 3 years of Span at ~$11m per and send out someone else as a 5th starter until Wheeler is ready. They gave Lagares 5/$23m and were ready to overpay Ben Zobrist until he could get his AARP card, but heaven forbid they give out any other contracts that exceed 2 years.
  3. I would contend that the speed in which I can search readily-available statistics is as least two standard deviations above the norm.
  4. Sorry, somebody needs to temper the overly-optimistic bullsh*t being spewed in here.
  5. Preceded by back-to-back 1.2 WAR seasons.
  6. Your expectations coming true has nothing to due with your misguided optimism.
  7. One of the few guys out there that makes sense, but it means you'd have to play Granderson in CF in 2017.
  8. Murphy's outlier performance in the NLDS and NLCS is clouding Ranger9's judgement as much as the Mets improbable WS run has JF80 and RJF convinced that they have a reasonable chance of returning with an offseason that is, thus far, a net negative compared to what they ended the season with. Murphy is no bueno.
  9. Votto's contract is horrible and the Mets wouldn't touch him unless the Reds are picking up half of what's left. He also has a full NTC and is apparently not a fan of big cities. I'd bet my $8 billion that he will not be a Met. Which of the SP's are you going to trade and what would you consider to be reasonable return for a cost-controlled, top-end SP? Save for Wheeler (who would be kind of foolish to sell low on), our other SP's would probably not yield enough in return right now to justify trading them this year. Harvey is the "eldest" of the bunch and he's not a FA until 2019. Outside of a Harvey-for-Mookie Betts swap, I can't think of any scenarios that make sense for the Mets to move one of their top-4 SP's.
  10. It amazes me how an improbable WS run has made everyone ignore the fact that we have the worst owners in sports, whose greed and stupidity is going to waste the best cost-controlled starting pitching in the FA era of baseball. I guess if we pretend the team is heading in the right direction, it will magically happen.
  11. They failed to improve their bullpen and their opening day lineup looks worse than the one that started the playoffs. If I were a betting man, I think I'd have to plunk my money down on "not a good offseason".
  12. Savvy teams will end up waiting and getting the guys you mentioned for under market value... and the Mets still won't be in on them then. And yes, the Mets, who were out the instant they heard Darren O'Day wanted $8m per (the going rate for top-end setup men) and settled on 1-yr of De Aza at 5.5m instead of pursuing a much better fit for the leadoff/CF hole in Span (who cost a whopping $31m over 3 years), are going to pay Joey Votto $25m/year until he's 40 years old. Bringing a guy with known anxiety issues to NY and making him your highest paid player seems like a great plan, after all. What "quality CF" are they going to get and what's it going to cost them?
  13. The problem obviously being that they don't have an endless supply of Fullmer-like prospects sitting in the minors, ready to be traded for the next Cespedes. Regardless, the folly of expecting to hit the jackpot and get similar results to what Cespedes did last year (rivaling Manny Ramirez's LA run as best performance by a trade-deadline addition) would fit this team's MO.
  14. Not sure why people are content with the Wilpons pissing on their heads and convincing them it's rain, just because they had an improbable WS run last year. Their system isn't exactly rife with elite bats, so we'll get to watch the offense flounder while their cost-controlled SP's carry the team (and hope the understaffed pen doesn't blow too many games). That is, until those pitchers hit FA and either become their highest-paid players (thereby eliminating any chance of signing a decent bat), or are let go, because they're simply "too expensive" to keep (which will be the case with Harvey). Regardless, this will be business as usual for the majority of my life, as their debt payments run into 2045. It's a shame, because Citi Field is a great place to catch a game, but I refuse to give the Wilpons my money, only to have them use it to service their debt instead of increasing payroll. At the risk of sounding like a drama queen, they've essentially ruined baseball for me for the rest of my life. Thank goodness for the Jets, Knicks, and Islanders for being such highly successful franchises for me to root for....
  15. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/06/sports/baseball/al-jazeera-peyton-manning-derek-jeter-charles-sly.html?_r=0 ... With the help of my New York Times colleagues Ken Belson and Doris Burke, I scrutinized the list of names, and it soon appeared less random than at first blush. Nearly all of the athletes Sly named are clients of Jason Riley, a fitness trainer based in Sarasota, Fla. Here is where Sly’s story becomes more intriguing. Sly is a business partner of Riley’s. When Sly applied for a pharmacist’s license in Florida, he used Riley’s home address. Riley and Sly founded Elementz Nutrition, a nutritional supplement company whose website and Facebook page feature many of the athletes Sly mentioned on camera. Zimmerman was featured on the website; Howard, Neal and Keller (who is also featured on the website) appeared on the Facebook page. In one photograph on Facebook, Riley poses at his gym, the Compound, between the mountainous Howard and the no less imposing Neal. Not every athlete cited by Sly in the Al Jazeera report is connected to Elementz, and not all of Elementz’s big-time clients were mentioned by Sly. Elementz proclaims all-natural bona fides. According to its website, it specializes in “vitamins, minerals, proteins and enzymes” that are “essential for our bodies to perform.” In other words, chia seeds, flax, whey and all that. Riley’s work as a trainer is so celebrated that he was called “baseball’s M.V.P. of the post-steroids era” by Men’s Fitness magazine. His most famous client, the man whose career he was credited with reshaping and saving from mortality’s shadow, was Derek Jeter. In 2010, a few years into Riley’s makeover, The Daily News proclaimed: “Derek is turning back the clock at short.” ESPN declared that Riley had “dumped the Captain into a hot tub time machine” and turned him into a 25-year-old. Significant caveats are in order here: No evidence has emerged linking Jeter to performance-enhancing drugs, and Sly did not connect him to banned substances, although he boasted of helping other athletes obtain them. And a connection to Sly, Riley or anyone else is hardly proof of any wrongdoing. Sly and Riley did not respond to several interview requests. An email sent to Elementz’s angel investor, Janis Krums, went unanswered. Jeter’s agent, Casey Close, did not respond. Mum’s the word on the west coast of Florida. ...
  16. He'll have a helluva time finding a glove. Probably will hurt his fielding...
  17. I would argue this statement, but even if I conceded it to be true, you simply can't expect to win when your entire team is made up of "average to above average" players at every position, without elite or near-elite ones sprinkled in. Granderson (a guy who slashed .227/.326/.388 the year before last) is by far the best position player on the team going into next year and there's a considerable dropoff after him (at least the 2015 version). The Wilpons past greed and stupidity will lead to them squandering the years when they have great, young, cost-controlled SP's by not surrounding them with a winning lineup (or bullpen). I will continue to support the team, but this is precisely why I continue my financial boycott, as I don't want my money financing their loan repayments instead of going to the team.
  18. http://www.vocativ.com/news/262818/the-new-york-mets-operate-like-a-ponzi-scheme/ It’s hard to overstate the opportunity the New York Mets currently enjoy. It’s no less hard to overstate the absurdity of how little they are doing to capitalize on it. The Mets own the rights to the finest young stable of starting pitchers in baseball. Further, thanks to the strange economics of baseball—under which a player earns little more than the league minimum for his first three years and then enters a controlled arbitration process that limits raises for three years after that—the Mets’ quartet of great young hurlers will never be less expensive than they are now. The four—Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, plus homegrown closer Jeurys Familia—will make around $9.5 million next year. Considering how much it costs to buy pitching on the free agent market—the San Francisco Giants, for example, have a starting five that will cost $70,616,666 next season—this theoretically frees up the Mets to leverage their young, cost-controlled pitching with enough offense to dominate baseball for the foreseeable future. But that’s not how this is going down. Because the New York Mets’ owners, Fred Wilpon and Saul Katz, are drowning in debt. Back in 2008, the team’s investments with Ponzi schemer Bernie Madoff were discovered to be a fraud. More than $500 million in assets Wilpon and Katz thought they had—and had borrowed against—vanished. Accordingly, just to stay afloat, they needed to take out a $430 million loan against the team and $450 million against their majority ownership stake in SNY (a network started with a loan from Madoff, incidentally). Ever since, the Mets have managed to get by annually by diverting revenue from their baseball and television operation into the financing of debt. Prior to the refinancing of the past two years, the annual interest on these two loans plus debt balloon payments of more than $43 million have exceeded team payroll itself. The refinancing of the two loans has extended their due dates out five years, so this arrangement is set to continue for a long time to come. And the debt balloon payments run until December 2045, when currently youthful pitching ace Steven Matz will be 54 years old. You can add in the settlement of the lawsuit brought by the trustee for the Bernie Madoff victims, Irving Picard. He sued Mets ownership, asserting they “knew or should have known” Madoff was a fraud. Ultimately, he settled with them once he determined that even if he won, Wilpon and Katz didn’t have the money to pay him. The settlement calls for payments in 2016 and 2017 that as of now come out to about $30 million each year. That such an arrangement is not in the best interests of baseball cannot be debated. Fred Wilpon, in what was his most recent press conference back in February 2013, happily acknowledged having diverted revenue toward both corporate and family debt. This is precisely what led MLB to strip Dodgers’ ownership from Frank McCourt, but then-Commissioner Bud Selig instead empowered Wilpon and even provided an MLB loan. Selig then looked the other way when Wilpon didn’t pay it back on time. Selig’s successor, Rob Manfred, has so far been unwilling to do anything about the arrangement either, noting recently that MLB teams ought to spend commensurate with their marketplace, but calling the fact that the Kansas City Royals have a higher payroll than the Mets a “fun fact.” Kansas City has a population one-fifteenth the size of New York City’s. Meanwhile, the very best offensive free agents on the market, like Jason Heyward, are headed elsewhere. Yoenis Cespedes, the team’s best offensive player during their magical late-season run to the World Series, has been described as too expensive by team officials. Second baseman Daniel Murphy, the team’s best hitter in the postseason, has also been deemed too expensive. Instead, the Mets filled their hole at second base by trading Jon Niese, who provided pitching depth, for Neil Walker. That deal allowed the Mets to add a second baseman at revenue-neutral prices. This off-season as a whole is a refutation of the public line by Wilpon and other senior officials that, should more revenue come to the Mets, they’d pass it on to consumers in the form of raising payroll. Per Forbes revenue estimates, the Mets were 27th out of 30 MLB teams in percentage of revenue spent on payroll last season. That was before the 2015 World Series run. And yet, while estimates of their postseason revenue alone range from $45-60 million and attendance increased by 19.6 percent, along with ratings on SNY having reached rough parity with the Yankees (meaning the network can charge more for advertising) there’s no sign that virtually any of this money is going back into the team. As of now, the team’s free agent moves—re-signing Jerry Blevins and Bartolo Colon to one-year deals, and adding Asdrubal Cabrera on a two-year deal—are largely paid for in 2016 payroll by the unexpected retirement of Michael Cuddyer. There’s no one to answer for this. Jeff Wilpon, team COO, hasn’t made himself available to a reporter since he was sued for sexually harassing a pregnant employee, Leigh Castergine, even though the suit has since been settled. Fred doesn’t talk on the record, either. The general manager, Sandy Alderson, is undergoing treatment for cancer. And the acting public face of the Mets, John Ricco, “doesn’t even know what the payroll is,” as one reporter familiar with the team put it. So the Mets have been blessed with a once in a generation baseball opportunity while being cursed by the ownership of Wilpon and Katz, multiple-time victims of Ponzi schemes. Given how the team’s finances currently work, it appears they’re now running a Ponzi scheme of their own.
  19. PS - this whole WBC/Cotto situation is precisely why I stopped watching boxing in favor of MMA. I can't say that I won't watch Cotto-GGG if that match were to be signed, but dropping the WBC belt points to the fact that Cotto had no intention of facing Golovkin next (after paying him $800k to step aside for the Canelo fight).
  20. While it is shaping up to be the best card of the year, I still don't think 194 will top UFC 100 in terms of number of PPV buys (1.6m... next closest post-Lesnar buyrate was 1.1m for Silva-Weidman 2/Rousey-Tate 2). I actually don't think Aldo will kill him, provided McGregor doesn't get leg-kicked to death ala Faber. WEC Aldo would be a favorite by a landslide, but UFC Aldo hasn't beaten anyone by stoppage, save for the first Mendes fight. I can't imagine McGregor allowing Aldo to outpoint him for 5 rounds without opening up and desperately seeking to end the fight himself. The guy seems to have a granite chin, so it should be a good scrap. I am equally, if not more interested in the Weidman-Rockhold fight and Jacare/Romero should be good as well. Let's hope nobody gets injured between now and then.
  21. I'd have to figure that Holm wants the rematch as much as anybody, because it's probably the biggest payday she'll ever see, as that PPV will easily be one of the top-3 in buyrate in UFC history if/when it happens. If she fights someone like Tate in the interim and is defeated, she loses that earning potential, kind of like how Cyborg lost out on her chance to cash in when Rousey got dismantled. While I agree that Rousey's reasoning for not fighting Cyborg at anywhere other than 135 was laughable (when she would gladly fight Carano at 145), the Penn-Machida fight you're referring to took place in K1 over 10 years ago. There were lots of openweight bouts in Japan, something that would never be sanctioned in the states in modern-day MMA.
  22. I envision him being a big proponent of Klogic, so he likely thinks that the end result validates his decision process.
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