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About thshadow

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  • Birthday 11/05/1968

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  1. At the risk of being responsive to the OP - isn't the franchise number for kickers really low? That's an easy way to get a guaranteed 1-year contract.
  2. Not to be too mathematical, but if the Jets are drafting at n, then it will be an (n - 1) person draft.
  3. I give credit to the front office, even though it should have been totally obvious, that there were only 3 important criteria in evaluating a prospective head coach: How well does Sam Darnold work with the coach How well does the coach work with Sam Darnold Sam Darnold It gives me hope that the draft will be treated similarly...
  4. You realize I could get out a map of the USA, some push pins, a few carefully measured strings, and figure out *EXACTLY* where you live now... Maybe put it up on a wall in my attic, decorate it with some newspaper clippings, write some incomprehensible phrases in magic marker, put up a ticket stub or two... You know, just if there was someone with those kinds of predilections, that kind of thing could happen... I imagine...
  5. lol - Google's not quite *that* powerful! My connection is me - I work on search ranking at Google, and my teammates do those info card things. Nice of them to fix it within like an hour of me reporting it, on a Sunday! Though I guess it's not like anyone's watching the pro bowl or anything...
  6. FYI, I just had his age fixed on Google. Are there others whose age is wrong?
  7. thshadow

    JAMAL Takes him down!

    Here's another angle (I think posted before) which makes it a little more clear that he didn't just randomly decide to assault someone:
  8. thshadow

    JAMAL Takes him down!

    So let me get this straight, some of you think that Jamal got out of his mind mad *at a mascot*, and then blind sided him and pile-drived him to the ground, trying to kill him?? I don't think it was particularly funny - mainly because it looked *too* real, at least from that angle - but you people are maroons...
  9. Not sure why you think those 2 statements contradict each other. The Jets (and every other bad team) is always one player away - that being the QB. If Darnold is great, the Jets will be great.
  10. thshadow


    Good job. Though - how about some more love for WR? We have Anderson and Enunwa and .... ?? I definitely think our OL needs upgrades, but I think WR is our 2nd biggest need. And if you're thinking long term - screw the defense. I don't care if we lose 42-35 games. We need Darnold to develop, and nothing else matters. And obviously, one way to get the defense off the field and get the ball back in Darnold's hand is to give up a quick score...
  11. thshadow

    Growth of Darnold from USC to NYJ.

    I'm not sure I agree with you. He said that he had a 2nd round grade on him, that seems to be the negative thing he said about Darnold. But he was gushing about the plays that he highlighted in this article. He was all about the amazing ability Darnold has, and how he has been improving.
  12. thshadow

    Adam Gase Mic’d Up: Chicago vs Miami

    Good watch. Not a lot of emotion by him!
  13. The subject of this thread is incorrect. The mock has Haskins going #2, and the Giants taking Tyler Murray at 6. 1. Arizona Cardinals Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State. On a team chock full of holes, edge rusher isn't at the top of the to-do list. That said, it's hard to pass on a talent like Bosa, who can take over games. There isn't an offensive linemen worth taking this high and the Cardinals find themselves in full-on rebuild mode less than a year after hiring Steve Wilks and drafting Josh Rosen in the first round. PAID CONTENT BY COMCASTXfinity. the future of awesome.Stream on the go. 2. Jacksonville Jaguars (mock trade with 49ers) Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State. The Jaguars get their franchise quarterback, which officially ends the Blake Bortles era in Jacksonville. The only question becomes how long before Haskins, who finally declared for the draft, assumes the starting job full-time. 3. New York Jets Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky. Is Josh Allen the best pass rusher in the draft? That will be decided in the coming weeks and months, but no one did more for their draft stock than Allen, who returned to Kentucky for his senior season and went off. After seven sacks and 10.5 tackles for loss in 2017, Allen gained 10-15 pounds of muscle and put up 14 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss and was pretty much unblockable. 4. Oakland Raiders Quinnen Williams, DL, Alabama. Williams might be the second-best player in this draft, which is why the Raiders are taking him here even though defensive tackle isn't an immediate need. Williams has been one of the most dominant players in college football, and this is after sitting behind Da'Ron Payne (a Redskins first-rounder last spring) in 2017. Oakland needs an edge rusher but Williams is a one-man pocket-collapser from the interior. 5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State. Burns is a long, lean, explosive pass rusher. At 235-240 pounds, the concern is whether he's strong enough to play the position at the next level, but Burns isn't just a speed rusher; he's also strong, and has the frame to get stronger. Jason Pierre-Paul had 12.5 sacks but he ranked 80th among all edge rushers, according to Pro Football Focus. 6. New York Giants Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma. General manger Dave Gettleman sure sounds like he's content to bring Eli Manning back for another season but imagine the Giants offense with Murray under center, Saquon Barkley in the backfield, and Odell Beckham and Evan Engram running routes. Woo boy. 7. San Francisco 49ers (mock trade with Jaguars) Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson. Ferrell was one of the stars of the best defensive line in college football, and he finished his junior season with 11.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss. There may be questions about Ferrell's flexibility compared to the other first-round pass rushers but there's no denying his Clemson production. In fact, on first downs during the 2018 season, Ferrell ranked among the top-10 players in the country in sacks (5), hurries (12), hits (10), knockdowns (5) and pressures (17). 8. Detroit Lions Byron Murphy, CB, Washington. When it's all said and done Murphy could be the first cornerback taken. He's an athletic playmaker with game-changing ability. Darius Slay had a good season for the Lions but coach Matt Patricia could use a top-flight cornerback on a defense that ranked 31st against the pass, according to Football Outsiders. 9. Buffalo Bills Ed Oliver, DT, Houston. Kyle Williams is retiring and Oliver, considered a top-5 pick during the college season, would be a steal here. There are questions about his size, and whether he can hold up over a 16-game season, but he's consistently disruptive in both the run and pass game. 10. Denver Broncos Daniel Jones, QB, Duke. Is Case Keenum the answer in 2019? New coach Vic Fangio said Keenum is the Broncos' quarterback "right now." Either way, we know general manager John Elway would love to upgrade the position. There's a reason he was closely watching Justin Herbert this season and now that he's returned to Oregon, Elway could turn his attention to other draft-eligible passers. After a good 2018 season, Jones could improve his stock with a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. 11. Washington Redskins (mock trade with Bengals) Drew Lock, QB, Missouri. Alex Smith suffered a gruesome injury in November and it's unclear if the 34-year-old will be fully recovered by training camp. Lock has the best arm of this quarterback class -- he reminds us of Jay Cutler -- and he would answer at least one of the looming offseason questions for this franchise and its beleaguered fanbase. 12. Green Bay Packers Jachai Polite, EDGE, Florida. Polite, who had a breakout season at Florida, has an explosive first step and off-the-chart physical abilities. His knack for getting in the backfield was unrivaled at times this fall. And while Kyler Fackrell has had a breakout season in Green Bay, Clay Matthews is 32 and in the final year of his contract. 13. Miami Dolphins Greedy Williams, CB, LSU. With four quarterbacks already off the board, the Dolphins bolster their secondary. Williams may not be the most polished cornerback in this draft class but he is insanely athletic and has all the tools to become a great player. 14. Atlanta Falcons Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson. Grady Jarrett was a beast this season but he could use some help along the defensive line. And Lawrence could end up being the best player to come from this dominant Clemson defensive line. 15. Cincinnati Bengals (mock trade with Redskins) Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama. The Bengals' offensive line ranked 22nd in the league, according to Football Outsiders and the team can move on from Cordy Glennwithout incurring any dead salary-cap charges. Williams has consistently been a top-10 pick in our mock drafts but Kyler Murray has thrown the top half of the board into upheaval. Meanwhile, Cincy gets a player who they can pencil in at left tackle for the next decade. 16. Carolina Panthers Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama. Eric Reid was signed a month into the season but he quickly became one of the Panthers' best defensive backs. His contract is up, which is the case for safety Mike Adams, who will turn 38 in March. Thompson is the best safety in the class (he's expected to officially declare for the draft on Monday), and he can be a game-changer in centerfield. On a unit lacking depth in the secondary, Thompson would be a solid choice. 17. Cleveland Browns D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss. Metcalf is the best wide receiver in this draft and he'd give Baker Mayfield another downfield playmaker alongside Antonio Callaway. And this offense -- with Jarvis Landry, David Njoku and Nick Chubb -- would immediately be considered one of the AFC's best. 18. Minnesota Vikings Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas St. Is it too early for the Vikings to look for a quarterback? That was rhetorical, mostly because Kirk Cousins is one year into a three-year, $84 million -- all guaranteed -- deal. And since Cousins isn't going anywhere, Minnesota has to do a better job of protecting him. Risner was a tackle in college but could kick inside at the next level where he will be a Day 1 starter. 19. Tennessee Titans Noah Fant, TE, Iowa. Delanie Walker is 34 years old and suffered an ankle injury in Week 1 that ended his season. 2017 third-round pick Jonnu Smith finished with 20 receptions and should improve in Year 3 but adding the most athletic tight end in a stacked draft class could be hard to pass up for an offense in desperate need of playmakers. 20. Pittsburgh Steelers Kelvin Harmon, WR, NC State. Bet you didn't see this coming. If the Steelers ship Antonio Brown out of town (for, say, a second-round pick), they could decide to replace him with one of the best receivers in this draft class. Harmon put up eye-popping numbers during his junior season at N.C. State and he'd make it difficult for opponents to double-team JuJu Smith-Schuster. 21. Seattle Seahawks Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State. Frank Clark has balled out this season (14 sacks) but he's the only edge-rushing threat. Sweat isn't as athletic as Bosa, Allen or Polite but it's hard to argue with his production. He had 12 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss for Mississippi State in 2018. 22. Baltimore Ravens Devin White, LB, LSU. C.J. Mosley could hit free agency after the season and White, who could be a top-10 pick, would seamlessly transition into the role. He's one of the most dynamic players in the draft, a sideline-to-sideline thumper who would immediately solidify the middle of the defense. 23. Houston Texans Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma. Ford excelled at tackle this season after moving over from guard and he could play either position at the next level. In related news: Deshaun Watson was sacked 62 times in the regular season for the Texans, which is ... unsustainable. 24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago) Rashan Gary, DL, Michigan. Khalil Mack was traded before the season, Bruce Irvin was cut last month, and the Raiders are one of the NFL's worst pass-rushing units. They have to address the position early, and possibly often in the 2019 draft. Gary didn't live up to expectations at Michigan but part of that can be blamed on him playing out of position. Is he an edge rusher? Is he better inside? 25. Philadelphia Eagles Nasir Adderley, S, Delaware. Adderley made a name for himself over the final months of the season and the FCS standout could find himself among the first 32 players taken. He'll have a chance to prove himself at the Senior Bowl and the biggest question might be his size -- is he big enough to play safety over the course of an NFL season -- because every other aspect of his game checks all the boxes of what teams look for in a defensive back. 26. Indianapolis Colts Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State. The Colts' defense was exposed by the Chiefs in the divisional round but there's no shame in that; the Chiefs routinely expose every defense they face. But for as good as Matt Eberflus' unit was, upgrading the secondary should be a priority. Oruwariye, a physical, fluid cornerback who can cover, was one of college football's best cornerbacks on first down, holding opponents to 27.6 completion percentage while forcing two interceptions and seven passes defended. 27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas) N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State. The Raiders need playmakers because 33-year-old Jordy Nelson isn't close to the player he was in Green Bay. Harry had 73 receptions for 1,088 yards and nine touchdowns last season, and he reminds us of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Anquan Boldin. 28. Los Angeles Chargers Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State. Same as last week. We've spent months talking up Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver, but Simmons has been a disruptive interior force this season. He has just one sack but he spends games in the backfield, as evidenced by his 15.5 tackles for loss. He often requires double-teams, which is a problem for any offense already dealing with Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. 29. New England Patriots Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson. Yep, three of four Clemson defensive linemen went in the first round here. Some were skeptical about Wilkins returning for his senior season but he set career highs in sacks, tackles for loss and, oh yeah, he beat Alabama in the national title game. He'd also help a Patriots defensive line 26th in run defense and 30th in pass rush, according to Football Outsiders. 30. Los Angeles Rams Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia. Nickell Robey-Coleman and Aqib Talib have had solid seasons but Marcus Peters and Troy Hill have struggled with consistency. Talib is also 32 and Baker, who had a strong 2018 with the Bulldogs, would add some youth and playmaking ability to Wade Phillips' defense. 31. Kansas City Chiefs Mack Wilson, LB, Alabama. The Chiefs' defense has been among the league's worst in 2018 and solidifying the linebacker position is as good a place to start as any. Wilson was expected to return to school but announced Sunday night that he was headed to the NFL. He could end up being the best linebacker in this class. 32. Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans) Joshua Jacobs, RB, Alabama. Coming into the season, Damien Harris was the name to know as the best draft-eligible Alabama running back. But Jacobs has been the more dynamic player this season. He breaks tackles at a 38.5 percent clip (that's third in the country among backs with at least 50 touches) and 41.3 percent of his carries result in first downs (that's No. 2). A running back may not slip into the first round but if one does, Jacobs is a good bet -- assuming he leaves school early. New Packerscoach Matt LaFleur ran the ball more than half the time in Tennessee last season, and a more balanced attack in Green Bay could prolong Aaron Rodgers' career. Pick Six Newsletter Get the day's big stories + fun stuff you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings. I agree that CBS Sports can send me the "Pick Six Newsletter" newsletter. See All Newsletters Ryan Wilson CBS Sports Writer FOLLOW Ryan Wilson has been an NFL writer for CBS Sports since June 2011, and he's covered five Super Bowls in that time. Ryan previously worked at AOL's FanHouse from start to finish, and Football Outsiders... FULL BIO 2018 NFL Playoffs Chiefs vs. Colts | Patriots vs. Chargers | Watch on All Access Expert Picks | Odds | Scores 2019 Super Bowl Watch Super Bowl LIII Live
  14. This is a kindof long and dense article. So I'll summarize some of the points. If you run on first down, you have a 44.0% chance of a first down. If you pass on first down, you have a 47.4% chance of a first down. A pretty big improvement! And despite what we feel, the Jets did run/run/pass only 13% of the time, which was less than the 16% league average. And they got a first down on that sequence 50% of the time, vs. 40.6% league average. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/ You Called A Run On First Down. You’re Already Screwed. By Josh Hermsmeyer Filed under NFL Pete Carroll, along with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, were criticized for calling too many running plays in Seattle’s wild-card loss. OTTO GREULE JR. / GETTY IMAGES Throughout the 2018 regular season, the Seattle Seahawks made a conscious effort to establish the threat of the running game in the minds of their opponents. In the face of record offensive production across the NFL — driven in large part by prolific passing offenses — head coach Pete Carroll doggedly maintained that sticking with running the ball gave the Seahawks the best chance to win. Though they attempted the fewest passes in the NFL, the Seahawks went 10-6 and earned a playoff berth. But that reliance on the run may have been Seattle’s undoing in its 24-22 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC wild-card game. In the first half the Seahawks’ running backs rushed nine times for an anemic 2.1 yards per carry. Most of those runs came in a particular sequence: rush-rush-pass. All but three of Seattle’s first-half rushing attempts originated from the rush-rush-pass play sequence. And despite the lack of success using that pattern of plays against the Dallas defensive front, Seattle opened its first possession of the second half by calling it again. The result was a punt. The notion of establishing the run is deeply ingrained in NFL culture. Coaches and play-callers laud the approach for its ability to keep a team “on schedule” and “ahead of the chains,” both of which are football shorthand for picking up enough yards on first and second down that you stand a good chance to extend a drive. True believers think that if you abandon the run too early, you make your team one-dimensional and forfeit an important edge in toughness. You’re no longer imposing your will on a defense, and this will manifest itself in worse results overall. But is this true? Does running help a team convert more first downs and extend drives? And does the order in which you call pass and run plays matter? ADVERTISEMENT To answer these questions, I looked at every play called in the NFL regular season from 2009 to 20181 and compared the result of each of the possible permutations of run and pass play sequencing2 using expected points addedand success rate.3 I calculated EPA and success rate for every first-down play; then I looked at every sequence that did not absorb into a first down and extended to second down and then third down, calculating the EPA and success rate for each call. Only sequences of three plays are included in the final analysis. Leaguewide, rushing is the preferred play call on first down, after which passing takes over as the dominant play type, especially on third down. Over the course of the 2018 season, there was no three-play sequence that Seattle favored more than rush-rush-pass. The Seahawks called rush-rush-pass 26 percent of the time, a rate 10 percentage points higher than league average. Yet despite the high frequency with which Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer used the pattern, they were not successful with it. Just 41.2 percent of their rush-rush-pass sequences ended in success. Meanwhile, on three-play sequences where the Seahawks started with a pass and mixed in a run afterward, they were successful 88.9 percent of the time (pass-rush-rush), 71.4 percent of the time (pass-pass-rush) and 50 percent (pass-rush-pass) of the time. Rush-rush-pass wasn’t effective for Seattle The Seattle Seahawks’ three-play sequences in 2018 by frequency, expected points added and success rate SEQUENCE EPA SUCCESS FREQUENCY Pass-rush-rush +0.56 88.9% 5% Pass-pass-rush +0.50 71.4 4 Rush-rush-rush +0.31 52.0 13 Pass-rush-pass +0.34 50.0 12 Rush-rush-pass +0.17 41.2 26 Rush-pass-rush -0.15 38.5 7 Rush-pass-pass -0.08 34.0 25 Pass-pass-pass -0.39 21.1 10 Frequencies do not add up to 100 percent because of rounding. SOURCES: NFL, ELIAS SPORTS BUREAU These results hold generally across the league as well. Pass-rush-rush is the most successful three-play sequence, followed by pass-pass-rush and rush-pass-rush. On first down, passing will net you at least 5 yards (enough to make the play a success) 47 percent of the time, while running the ball will get you the same result just 32.8 percent of the time, 14.2 percentage points less often. On second down, the gap closes to about a 7 percentage-point advantage for passing. Play-calling patterns that end in a pass on third down have a negative expected value across the board. If we look at each sequence in terms of EPA per play, we see that the only positive EPA values on third down are on running plays. This makes sense: If you are passing on third down, it strongly implies that the first two plays in the sequence did not end well, and you likely have a third-and-long situation. Meanwhile, the opposite outcome is true on first and second down. There are no positive EPA rushing nodes, and all passing plays return positive expected value. This result is the exact opposite of what we would expect to find if establishing the run via play sequences like rush-rush-pass were winning strategies. Instead of making a team less predictable, establishing the run on first and second down creates a game state that is often quite predictable for the defense. The opposing team is expecting a pass on third down because the first two plays were unsuccessful. Surprisingly, two of the top three teams in net yards per passing attempt in 2018, the Rams and the Chiefs, actually do have success with the rush-rush-pass play sequence. How each team uses rush-rush-pass The frequency — and effectiveness — with which every NFL team called rush-rush-pass in a three-play sequence TEAM EPA SUCCESS FREQUENCY Seattle +0.17 41.2% 26% Tennessee -0.23 41.3 24 Buffalo -0.26 43.9 21 L.A. Chargers -0.13 41.2 20 San Francisco -0.37 33.3 20 Houston -0.32 38.9 18 Miami -0.50 22.6 18 Denver -0.47 32.4 17 L.A. Rams +0.28 60.0 16 N.Y. Giants +0.23 51.5 16 Indianapolis -0.03 45.5 16 Minnesota -0.28 41.9 16 Jacksonville +0.05 40.0 16 Oakland -0.72 33.3 16 Cleveland +0.37 46.7 15 Chicago -0.09 41.4 15 Pittsburgh +0.70 61.5 14 Atlanta +0.37 51.7 14 Detroit +0.00 50.0 14 Tampa Bay +0.44 47.8 14 New Orleans +0.04 41.7 14 Arizona -0.71 33.3 14 N.Y. Jets +0.19 50.0 13 Dallas +0.15 46.4 13 Baltimore +0.32 44.4 12 Carolina -0.14 40.9 12 New England +0.03 39.1 12 Washington -0.32 34.8 12 Cincinnati -0.26 47.4 10 Green Bay -0.10 40.0 10 Kansas City +1.19 53.3 9 Philadelphia +0.66 50.0 9 SOURCES: NFL, ELIAS SPORTS BUREAU Kansas City, the most dominant passing team in the league, was successful 53.3 percent of the time with rush-rush-pass. But the Chiefs ran the sequence just 15 times all season for a total share of 9 percent of all plays — 7 percentage points below league average — and they were mostly unsuccessful with the first two plays in the chain. When the Chiefs called back-to-back runs on first and second down, the second run was successful just 47.7 percent of the time. This suggests that the success of their third-down passes owes itself more to the strength of the Chiefs passing game and quarterback Patrick Mahomes than to the running plays that led up to them. The story is similar in Los Angeles. Sixty percent of rush-rush-pass play sequences ended in success, and the Rams used the pattern at exactly the league-average frequency. Again, however, when the Rams called back-to-back runs to begin a sequence, the second run was successful just 46.1 percent of the time, leaving them 5.8 yards left to gain for a first-down conversion on average. The success the Rams enjoyed on third-down passing attempts appears to be independent of the rushing plays that preceded them. While the precise order in which passes and runs are called may not matter so much — several combinations are roughly equivalent to one another according to success rate — some trends are clear. Passes are more effective when called on early downs, and runs are more effective on third down. Running on first down, while often a mistake, can be salvaged with a pass on second down. And if you’re going to rush on back-to-back plays to open a series, you should do so sparingly because it will leave your team in an obvious passing situation more often than not. Your passing attack — and QB especially — will need to be well above average to consistently convert in those high-leverage spots where all deception is gone and defenders can be confident that they know what’s coming.
  15. Well if that's your criteria, Gase is also inheriting McCown...

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