nycdan

I scan the Packers forums once in a while. Then I see they are still clamoring for the team to start talking to SF if the Jets don't give up their 2023 1st round pick. The fact that SF doesn't have a 1st or 2nd round pick (in fact, their highest pick in 2023 is 99) doesn't faze them. This really has turned into quite a spotlight on the inability of humans to process basic facts.

I am generally skeptical that Pauline has any real sources, but at least I can hope this is true.

If most contracts are fully guaranteed, the amount of dead money on every team's cap will go up. Probably quite a bit. That means players who are either on the bench or not playing at all are eating up more of the cap, leaving less for the guys who are playing. The players will be pissed off about that, When 20% of the total salary cap is unavailable because it was paid out as signing bonuses and guaranteed salary in contracts signed years ago to players who aren't contributing, that's going to cause a lot of hand-wringing. NFLPA should consider that as well but they won't. Good times.

List of QBs I would trade 2 1st round picks for in a heartbeat: Mahomes, Burrow. QBs I would think hard about it for: Allen, Hurts Next tier - I would at least strongly consider it: Herbert and Lawrence I think that's it. Everyone else is either too old, too risky, or too mediocre.

Lamar on Day 1 of legal tampering period: Lamar last week: Lamar now:

I like Saleh, but that sounds like a question he should have not answered at all.

I believe he has confirmed he would rework the deal. The salary cap hits under the current deal are actually very reasonable. I think it's $30M in 2023 and $40M in 2024. It's the dead money after 2024 that would be difficult. I'm sure someone, somewhere has worked out the exact impact, but presumably, we could pay him a little more in the next two years and end up with a lighter dead money number after that which would bring it in line with other high-end QB deals.

No. You THINK CD isn't a difference maker. You could be right. You could be wrong. But there's been a trend in the past few years of people wrapping their opinions with "everybody is saying...". It's called gaslighting and it's not going to convince anyone of anything.

So we agree that the Jets probably shouldn't be that interested in Lamar? If so, all good here! Sure, Lamar can ask for whatever he wants. That's completely cool. But how he reacts to not getting what he wants is going to be a story.

Should we have Zach take that meeting?

Cam Newton is also an NFL MVP QB if that's the only important data point. A lot has changed since 2019.

OMG No! In case that wasn't clear....NO!

It's the Veruca Salt syndrome

For one thing, the injury impact. Becton looked like a home run in his rookie season. Then came the conditioning and injury issues which were not evident from his college career. I'm not sure where to pin that but I'm not sure you lay that on Douglas for not anticipating it. Same for Lawson. He had a very good, injury-free season the year before the Jets signed him. In TC he looked like an all-pro and we were all pumped. Then an ACL which is not predictable. Most of the OL FA signings did not work out well. You can absolutely pin that on Douglas, which is odd because that was supposed to be his sweet spot. As for McGovern and the TEs, you have to factor in what the market looked like. What options were available? Both were clearly positions of need. The choice at Center was McGovern vs. Morse (who went to BUF). Morse got a slightly higher deal. And saying CMG was the 10th highest paid center while playing like the 16th to 20th ignores the fact that newly signed FAs are always paid higher than their value in their first year until the market catches up. Lots of fair notes, but lots of inconsistencies and overlooked factors. Worth a read, but definitely needs a few grains of salt.

The Kyler contract might have been dumber than the Watson deal. I wonder if ARI would love to tear that up (not that they'd admit it publicly) if they could. Hard to say that DEN is happy with the Wilson deal so far. The problem for both teams is that if the QBs don't turn things around, the teams are screwed for YEARS because of the guaranteed money. KC and BUF are probably very happy with their deals. CIN, PHI, and SD are next up. We'll see how those go but fully guaranteed contracts are dumb in every sport from the team's perspective.

What about this made you think 'objective'. It's a completely subjective piece - one writer's opinions. Every FA pickup that was injured gets flagged as an overpay by Douglas. She brushes over the wins by lumping 2 or 3 in one sentence as opposed to a paragraph for each injured player. Some, or most of them might have been slightly above-market, so the opinions aren't invalid by any means, but let's call it what it is.

I don't know but clearly we should fire Douglas and Saleh over the Lamar Jackson thing.

There's another issue with the no-agent thing that could be putting teams off. What happens in two years when QB deals are cracking the $60M line and Lamar is still sitting at his paltry $48M number in year 3 of a 5-year deal? He decides he's underpaid and starts making trouble. No agent to help navigate the situation. Now you have a brutal cap situation that's fully guaranteed and a disgruntled QB who wants a raise. Honestly, if I were a GM planning to be around for 5 more years, I see reasons to shy away from that situation. LJ is trying to eat both ends of the cake. You want to save 2-3% on an agent and you want to play hardball for every dollar? That could be a recipe that some, if not most GMs legitimately want no part of.

Zach would make both their lives hell.

This is the crux of Lamar's problem. If he were open to taking a Josh Allen contract, I think there would be interest. The most compelling thing to me is what's up with Burrow? Are he and CIN stuck on the same issue? If they agree on a deal that doesn't have Watson terms, it would severely undermine Lamar's position. Would he come down to earth at that point? Because nobody in their right mind would say Lamar is worth more than Burrow. Herbert is another 4th year guy who is probably a better comp. Not sure if those deals are waiting to see how Lamar nets out but it'll be compelling to see who blinks first and what happens from there.

I'm starting to allow for the possibility that this deal doesn't happen. I believe, with no facts to back it up, that JD will not part with #13 in any scenario (unless it's a swap to #15 possibly). Everything we've seen from him over 3 years suggests he does not overpay in trades by any significant amount, and he does not seem to panic. I'm also starting to believe that Mark Murphy has made this a hill he wants to die on, probably knowing he has job security, and willing to let both teams lose in order not to look like he caved. This has gone on long enough now, that any deal will create a storm of finger-pointing and judgment that neither team wants to be on the wrong end of. If, as I am inclined to believe, GB moved the goalposts, JD is not the type of GM who will overpay to bail them out of a problem of their own making. Would GB be willing to actually go as far as entering TC with Rodgers on the roster? Hard to believe a few weeks ago, but maybe their definition of winning is different from mine. So what happens if no deal? I think the Jets would pick up a best-available veteran and go into TC with a competition where Zach gets a chance to show enough improvement under the new coaches and system to get the ball. Yes, that will offend the fans (which the team should honestly give no sh-ts about), and maybe some of the players will be disappointed, but we go in with an incredibly talented roster around whoever the QB is. Even league-average play from that position is playoff-contending. If not, we'll do the QB reset next year but with a longer window in mind. Maybe it's a vet like Cousins, or maybe a draft pick. Way too early to even guess. In any case, as excited as I was and am for Rogers to come here, I'm not of the opinion that we should overpay just because GB wants us to. Those of you repeating "pay the 1st round pick and more because..." haven't considered, what if it's 2 first round picks. Or 3. There appears to be no line you wouldn't walk to in order to be right. But there is a line, and JD is the only voice that matters in determining that. I'm also not inclined to call for JDs head if the deal doesn't happen because *we don't know what happened*. Sometimes good things come from bad things. It's time to decide if you are a fan of the team, or just in it for the 'woe is me' and the trolling. The absolutism of some posters that the Jets had to be in the wrong, and that everyone should be fired over this is baffling to me. If you can't root for the team without Rodgers, then....life choices.

31 billionaires and Mark Murphy. I wonder what the dynamic is like.

The article was from 2016.

Here's an interesting recap on every time QBs went 1-2. https://www.nfl.com/photos/quarterbacks-selected-1-2-in-nfl-draft-0ap3000000654240 The one time 1 was bad and 2 was good was in 1999 (Couch/McNabb). Twice 1 was good and 2 sucked (Manning/Leaf, Bledsoe/Mirer. Not sure what to do with Luck/RG3. And then Plunkett/Manning (Archie) was the one time both had good careers.

The Packers fans are basing their entire position on the point that the Jets don't have a starting QB if we don't overpay for Rodgers. They fail to realize that this is a normal Sunday for us.