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derp

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About derp

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  • Birthday 02/22/1989

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  1. I’d get this argument more if the Jets had limited cap space and/or draft capital. I think there are many more ifs to a Darnold scenario than a Watson scenario. That you bring up injury risk is a little funny. Darnold hasn’t played more than 13 games in any of his three NFL seasons - 38 total and some of those aren’t full games. Watson has played 47 over that same stretch. The last argument isn’t one I think is fair either, even as someone who thinks Darnold is salvageable. I think he needs a lot around him, quality coaching, and maybe a year off. If the Jets have a more sure thing on the table who cares if he’s good elsewhere? The biggest perk to Watson aside from his talent is the continued legitimacy he brings to the franchise. The Shanahan offense typically targets a #1 WR heavily. That’s a guy the Jets need to acquire. Allen Robinson is already indicating interest in playing with Watson on the Jets. If you’re Robinson and your next and probably last chance at a big contract after the one you sign this offseason and incentives on the deal you sign hinge on your production - are you thrilled to go from Trubisky to Darnold? Probably not. That’s a likely loss of a major talent upgrade and need for money alone just for sticking with Darnold. Now can they have a good chance at a WR with a pick they’d otherwise use to acquire Watson? Sure. But we still aren’t sure if Darnold will be good. Say he doesn’t make significant progress - which is very possible. Now you’ve used a major asset on a player whose growth is being stunted because of poor quarterback play instead of using that asset to just acquire a good quarterback. And that’s the ripple effect at one position. And this is all ignoring the fact that the Jets need to make a decision on Darnold’s fifth year option this spring without seeing him in this system - if they decline, which is possible if not likely, you either have a failed quarterback and a massive crater at the most important position in the sport heading into the 2022 offseason or a one year wonder who you need to decide how to compensate. Hanging on to him versus acquiring Watson is a huge, huge potential mess with all kind of risks associated with it.
  2. I think they’re going to be looking at guys 15-20 pounds lighter for that role. More like Phillips, Weaver, Jones, Rousseau, maybe Tryon and Oweh. Not so sure about Paye. Maybe Ossai. I think Ojulari may need to stand up. Probably misspelled a few in there but you get the idea. I do think they’d love to bring in a FA but I’d be surprised if they didn’t add a weak side end prospect somewhere from 23 to the end of day two. Big need, premium position, and that’s where the bulk of the edge class seems to be.
  3. I also think given the risk/reward of taking a guy at 2 overall and the recent history of quarterbacks drafted at the very top of the first round (say top 5) versus a few picks later, the sweet spot for Douglas is probably taking a position player earlier and a QB later - even if it means moving up from Seattle’s pick. That was also Ozzie Newsome’s MO. I think it’s a safer a spot to take your swing but not necessarily need to hit on a guy, and there’s risk at that position all over the first round. We always perceive that you need to take that QB at the top of the first round and basically none of the current superstars at the position were taken in the top five. Plus you’re likely able to help that supporting cast. And I think Douglas would rather be sneaky. Play up the Darnold narrative forever, don’t take one at two or with the first pick if they move down - then snap a guy up if he falls.
  4. Maybe, but I think a few things make it unlikely. One, Douglas is going to deem if the guy is worth the cap savings, would he sign Anderson to a one year deal worth a little over eight million? My guess is no. Two, I think that’s compounded by the decreasing cap. Going to be a lot of team friendly contracts this offseason with a lot of teams in cap trouble, that cap space is worth more than a normal offseason. And also, Armstead is a really good athlete for 290. You’re going to have an easier time getting someone to be comparably disruptive in the high 270’s or the 280’s versus having Anderson do it at 300.
  5. I think Anderson makes too much money and he’s getting cut.
  6. A few thoughts: The elite edge rusher at 2 is almost certainly going to be a defensive end unless Saleh deviates dramatically from what he did in SF. I think it’s nice if one of the linebackers can rush a little but his linebackers were all sub 240. Not going to find a consistent edge rusher like that. I actually think they’re going to double dip here. I’m very curious to see what Saleh thinks about the safety position since one of those guys ideally needs a lot of range. I’d expect Maye back but you never know. Davis kind of fits but he’s also remarkably unproven. Since there’s going to be a lot of zone run I think corner is kind of important but it’s not going to get a lot of resources thrown at it. I could see them signing Williams to help install the defense as a nickel since a lot keyed off of him in SF. Otherwise, speed and man coverage skills aren’t as important as size and arm length, and those aren’t traits that are prioritized in corners to the extent that they require significant investment (FA dollars or draft picks). That’s compounded by the fact that the Jets have a lot of big, long corners who might fit better running a lot of zone already. I wonder if it’s part of the appeal from Saleh’s standpoint. I think the Jets do a lot less here than fans expect. The other end position is interesting as well. Saleh had Arik Armstead as his starting strongside end - Armstead is 6’7, 290. Not really a prototypical end. It’s similar to corner in a way - guys like Franklin-Myers and Kyle Phillips don’t really look like prototypical 4-3 ends but when you look at them through the lens of what Saleh had in SF it’s a little more reasonable. I think, similar to corners, those guys are okay fits for what he does and fine as hold the fort players on a team with a ton of needs. Bigger focus on the weak side ends. I agree with linebacker in general. I’ve posted this in other threads but Saleh’s 2020 starting linebackers were a 2018 third round pick, a 2019 fifth round pick, and a 2019 UDFA. I don’t know if significant investments go here but there could be a quiet overhaul. Don’t think the Shanahan offense necessarily needs a workhorse type back but I do think they need to add bodies. That whole SF backfield had guys who could break big plays. I’d hope for more of the same here.
  7. He’s absolutely got to be a strong-side end and Saleh used a huge one in Armstead at 290 in SF. I can’t see Basham being a 10 sack guy and I think that means he falls short of first round expectations but he should be solid and not a bad piece if he slides to one of the 3’s due to lack of perceived pass rush upside. I think even 34 is too high though. Also think Franklin-Myers and Phillips are adequate to fill the Armstead position early. Desperately the twitchy guy on the other side.
  8. I think the conversation is hey if it’s an optics issue then you’re welcome to take 23, Seattle’s first next year, and our first in 2023 if that’s more appealing than 2 and another first.
  9. Agree, two is super valuable. It’s a high pick and high pick this year. In trades a future pick is generally worth half or down a round. Ergo Seattle’s two first round picks they traded for Adams are currently worth somewhat between 1100 and 1150 points on the valve chart, that’s equivalent to between picks 13 and 14. Pick 2 is worth 2600 on the value chart, more than double that. People talk about Carolina - that eighth pick is worth like just over half - 1400. Even if you’re generous and call both their 2022 and 2023 first rounders worth half of that, you get to 200 points of value more than the second pick alone with three first rounders from them. I think there’s a lot of grey area there of course, and these aren’t necessarily hard and fast rules. But if that’s the value of the pick on draft day I have to imagine it’s roughly in that ballpark when evaluating trades. It’s why teams like Seattle and the Rams are the ones trading multiple future firsts for guys - they’re not as valuable. None of this is to say that the Jets wouldn’t necessarily have to give up more than the second pick or a lot for Watson. Just that the second pick is really valuable in those conversations and I think it gives them a leg up in trade negotiations if Houston wants to go the trade route. Everyone’s talking about X first round picks and comparing to the Adams and Ramsey trades and there’s a lot more to it than that IMO.
  10. I expect finding guys they like on the edge to be priorities 1-3. Kyle Phillips is an option at the strong side end spot too, he and Franklin-Myers have been good and deserve some love. Zuniga is pretty twitchy and I could see him being penciled in as a LEO backup but they definitely need help there. Will be fun letting those guys kick inside from time to time. Just feels more modern as a defense. Maybe could add a mid-round three tech who’s undersized but can get after the quarterback to give Q a break every now and then. And I think they need to decide if Fatukasi gets extended or they bring in a backup to take over the next year.
  11. I do understand what you’re saying, but edge is a pretty huge need in this system. They’re going to be able to cobble pretty much everything else together but if there’s an edge they like on the board it’s going to be firmly in play. Corner I think is pretty much off the table at this point. I expect they’ll look seriously at an athletic off ball linebacker to be the dude for the team on day 2 at some point, don’t think with 34 but maybe one of the thirds this year or something day two next year. That Fred Warner, Bobby Wagner role. Maybe they try Mosley at it this year but I’m skeptical he does much going forward.
  12. Henry was absolutely not drafted in the first round. Seven backs to get to the initial first round pick, and two of those guys had very disappointing years - Jacobs 3.9 YPC and Elliott 4.0 YPC. You then have a ways to go to the next first round pick on the list. Yardage totals which you’re looking at here are of course impacted by touch volumes - it’s why Jacobs and Elliott are high on the list despite not being productive on a per touch basis - which was the OP’s initial point about the YPC of the SF backs. You’re picking a set of information that fits your narrative of wanting to spend early picks on bellcow backs and deemphasizes teams that have a good system and churn out productive backs. One of the best examples of that is that Alvin Kamara who’s an absolute superstar and top three back in the league wasn’t hurt this year like CMC and doesn’t make your initial list. Why? Because the Saints also give Latavius Murray a ton of carries. Keeps Kamara fresh and healthy and lets him continue to produce chunk gains when he gets touches. And also because he contributes a ton in the receiving game - also ignored just looking at rushing yards.
  13. On the other hand, current projections have the Jets with $135 million in cap space in 2022 with literally everyone cuttable contract wise except Becton. There are almost no long term commitments on this roster. Those three would be the only building blocks Douglas hasn’t drafted and fill some major positions for the system they want to run. I think it’s very doable. Watson’s contract is frankly looking pretty team friendly for a current quarterback deal, too.
  14. And also teamed up with Mike Maccagnan to get Christian Hackenberg drafted in the second round. Made Hackenberg look so good during his freshman year folks ignored the gross two years that followed when Robinson was gone.
  15. Maybe they’ll surprise me if they trade him, but I don’t Houston can get fair value for a 25 year old franchise QB signed to a reasonable contract. There’s no precedent. This would be like those NBA superstar deals where teams just get what they can. Houston has also made horrifically bad trades over the last couple of years and will have little to no leverage and Douglas has consistently done better than fans expect. The number two pick is also a way more valuable trade chip than gets discussed in the comparisons to the Adams or Ramsey trades.

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