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derp

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About derp

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  1. derp

    Mock Offseason; amateur pragmatist

    Yeah I think that OL scenario you outlined is pretty realistic (if Paradis is attainable) in terms of what we've seen Maccagnan do in the past. I think there's probably at tackle in there too somewhere - just not one of the top guys. Someone who's a potential starter but can easily get tossed aside for a draft pick. Ty Nsekhe is a guy I've got my eye on - I'm sure there are others. I wholeheartedly agree that three is an odd spot. I know we hope for trade downs *every* year but I'm pretty sure the Jets just posted on twitter about how Murray staying in the draft could impact the franchise with a reference to how many QB's have gone high in the draft and how many of those had teams move up to get them via trade. I think they're going to be completely open for business and, with the Raiders being a pretty big wild card at 4, I think it's a good spot for teams to come up to. Also agree that DL is the way to go if they get stuck there. I know Allen is a little miscast in a 4-3 but he'd be above Williams on my board. I don't think an interior DL who isn't a freak AGAIN is the right decision. I do have a sneaking suspicion Bosa slips to 3 but I could be wrong. Seems like the Jets get the top consensus guy annually, he's going to have medical questions, Allen's going to outperform him at the combine, and I wonder if Arizona or San Francisco moves down. If Allen and Bosa are gone I think I honestly just take best offer unless somebody emerges. I do think if Beachum hangs around at tackle this year, what you likely will see is them identify a developmental guy on day 2 and take him. Trey Pipkins, Tytus Howard, somebody in that area. The tackle class just isn't particularly great at the top. I do think if someone shows special movement skills at the combine they can get pushed up and if that happens it's likely going to be one of the guys who played RT in college - Taylor or Ford. To be honest Ford is a blast to watch since he's a massive dude and pretty mobile. I'm not sure he's a LT fit but if they do something halfass at LG and/or RT it'd be cool to move down and bring him in and just absolutely wreck stuff. Regarding helping out Darnold - I do think Gase seems to have an affinity for receivers who can both get open deep and create in space. I wonder how much Marquise Brown fits what he's looking for there. He's around 10 on some draft boards and likely going to run really, really fast. With the way things are played in the secondary now I think he's a more viable option than in past years. Don't think it'd be popular but do think it's possible. Totally agree with your take on the OL FA class, I do think the guard class is worse than the tackle class but it's also cheaper so it's easier to not make a mistake there. I do think they're going to get a good pass rusher, not sure if they land an elite guy. But I think with the cap space and the need they probably should functionally just go to the guy's agent and say give us a number you need to sign here then figure out everything else afterwards. Definitely appreciate your posts too, think we're largely on the same page and good food for thought/discussion.
  2. derp

    Mock Offseason; amateur pragmatist

    Wouldn't have posted so much but it was clear you were being thoughtful/did a good job and said you wanted comments I totally agree the Jets could sign Paradis and depth players and invest serious capital in the draft - was trying to get at that in my post. Don't think that they necessarily won't draft guys, I just think there will be be *possible* starting options signed before the draft and there are definitely two, possibly three holes on the offensive line that need to be addressed so I think they're going to bring in several free agents. But I'd agree with the point I think you're making that one or two of those FA's should just be penciled into a starting spot since they could be upgraded via the draft.
  3. I know the heavy, heavy focus when it comes to free agency discussions is the offensive. And with good reason, because protecting Darnold and giving him a good supporting cast is absolutely key. That said, this defensive free agent class is better than the offensive free agent class and the team is going through a scheme change. The Jets rarely do what fans talk about and I kind of think this offseason will be no different. Obviously the specifics depend on who gets tagged, etc but there are clearly going to be front 7 needs for the team to be addressed. A portion of what they go after depends on where guys on the roster now fit into the scheme that Williams plans on running. Thought it would be useful and different to discuss how we think current guys get used and what holes that leaves. These are things Maccagnan almost certainly will address in FA, maybe looking to build some depth during the draft, but he always tries to fill or at least "fill" holes during FA and I think that's going to be a key part of early free agency with the quality of the defensive class this year and the scheme change. Leonard Williams, Avery Williamson, Mike Pennell, Darron Lee, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Jordan Jenkins, Nathan Shepherd, Tarell Basham, and Folo Fatukasi are returning guys who spent time on last year's roster and are front 7 players. Williams, Pennell, Shepherd, and Fatukasi are all interior DL's. Big dudes and pretty athletic. I don't think DT is a priority at all. Williams' defense requires MLB's to cover. I don't think Williamson fits that. But he has dead money if cut. I think he ends up at SLB for that reason. I think theoretically Jenkins and Basham could stand up but I'm more inclined to believe they end up with their hand in the dirt for a few reasons. One, I think Williams lands there. Two, I think they're of more value as pass rushers than as linebackers and Williams isn't just going to rush his SLB every play. And three, I think their experience standing up will help the transition with doing drops on zone blitzes. That said, I think both are too slight to be strongside ends and I'm not sure either is the elite pass rusher Williams wants on the weakside. Don't think Basham is a roster lock. Jenkins theoretically could get moved as he's got value as a decent young player but not sure how much they'd get in return. I like him as a situational pass rusher and quality WDE depth with some versatility. Lee could play MLB in Williams' system but I think he's a pretty traditional 4-3 WLB and would like to see him stay there. On top of that, the free agent MLB class has several talented young guys (Hicks, Perryman, Mosley, Alexander, Littleton as a RFA) with varying degrees of cover skills and fit - but there are several options. I would bet that one of these guys (or another MLB) ends up in New York. With Bowles installing a new scheme in Tampa, Alexander makes sense. Bringing in another MLB would lock down the linebacker corps and I think you see Williamson come off the field a decent amount. Still need DE talent though. I think it happens during the draft and I also think two get brought in during FA - maybe not starters but at least potential starters. Think it's a priority if Clowney ,Lawrence, or Ford shakes loose. Clark has a DV history and I don't think he's going to be an option. But guys in the Trey Flowers, Preston Smith, Za'Darius Smith category make a ton of sense. Maybe an older guy or a reclamation project if they don't grab two in that area or one of the top guys another guy. But I think it's going to get a lot of attention in FA. Anyway, curious to get everyone else's thoughts on how the team addresses the front 7 this offseason.
  4. derp

    Mock Offseason; amateur pragmatist

    I like where you are going with this conceptually. I realize it's better to err on the side of conservatism - but I think you went too far with that in FA. Team has $100M in cap space. I think that offseason conservatively leaves $30-40M unspent, maybe closer to $50M. It's nice not to go too far overboard and say the team's signing Clowney, Lawrence, Bell, Brown, Paradis, and on but at the same time they have a lot of money to spend and it's going to be spent somewhere. Maccagnan's MO on the offensive line tends to be going into the draft with the needs "filled" even if they're band aids. This scenario has the team going into the draft with no left guard and possibly no RT since Shell is banged up. I'm not sure I think that's particularly realistic. Granted what I expect is him to half fill the need and bring back Harrison as a swing interior OL - but I think something is going to happen at LG in free agency. I think it'd be clear cut they try to do something big but there isn't much at guard hitting FA. I also wouldn't sleep on the possibility they try to bring in a tackle and have some camp battles. Something like a Nsekhe, Beachum, Morse, Harrison, Winters line seems like what Maccagnan would do (note, not what I would do but seems realistic). They make comments about how Nsekhe is a late bloomer and they think he's a steal, he and Beachum battle it out for LT. Either could potentially slide over to RT if they lose out and Beachum could probably play LG too. Morse is the center, Harrison gets penciled in at LG, Winters is RG. They could draft an interior OL or a tackle and have them compete for LT, RT, LG and not really feel like they're losing too much if someone gets bumped out of the starting 5 (likely Harrison in this case). Also have Shell kind of waiting in the wings. The other interesting guy would be Ted Karras who's a RFA for the Pats. Maybe they match or he's tendered too high to justify, but he's gotten starts at guard and center for them over the years. Something like him and Harrison would give Maccagnan the flexibility to draft a guard or a center and let those three compete for spots. Regardless, I think if you view the offseason not as one opportunity to fill needs but a series of chronological events and Maccagnan wants everything filled or semi filled by the draft - I don't think it happens like this. Note I also think that's why the heavy OL draft is unrealistic - he's going to pay guys in FA rather than forcing himself to reach for OL in the draft. The other thing I'd note is that with the move to the 4-3 there are three big holes I think need to get filled in FA - both DE spots and a linebacker. Not sure how they view Jordan Jenkins but I'd err on the side of not thinking he's going to be a starter since he's a little light to be a strongside end and not what they probably want at weakside end. The other thing is that they're likely bringing in another smaller linebacker IMO. Williamson doesn't seem like he's got the coverage chops to do what Williams wants at MLB. I think he plays SLB and they try to bring in a MLB with cover skills or have Lee play MLB and bring in a WLB. I'm purely speculating here but FA's I'd keep an eye on are Za'Darius Smith and Kwon Alexander. Smith is a pretty big dude who stood up in Baltimore and I could see him fitting in well as a 4-3 end. Alexander is has injury issues but is fast and a good cover dude - think he fits what Williams does. We'll see where things go but I think more assets are going to be spent on the defense than people anticipate.
  5. derp

    Jonah Williams

    I do think the bigger takeaway from that list, and I don’t know if there aren’t common traits there, is that a reasonable amount of starting LT’s are day 2-3 picks who potentially projected to guard. Granted the Jets have picked plenty who have been average at best.
  6. derp

    Jonah Williams

    It’s a nice list but the majority of them are guys who were always day 2-3 prospects who ended up being NFL LT’s. If these guys didn’t exist LT’s would only be drafted in the top 10. I’d also argue most if not all would be djsappointments if drafted at 3 or in the top 10 which is largely the context of the Williams discussion. I was referring to the guys who were getting projected in the top 10 overall as LT’s but some thought they might project better to guard. And really more specifically, ones who the guard projection isn’t just because they’re big. Thinking like Brandon Scherff. Zach Martin is close. Bakhtiari, Brown, Armstead, Beachum were never on that radar. For each of those four there are 10 Brian Winters’, Dakota Dozier’s, and Vlad Ducasse’s who actually couldn’t play tackle. Glenn and Whitworth were always day 2 guys, and both considerably bigger than Williams which was part of the guard projection. Tunsil and Stanley just had pit stops in their way to LT because of team needs, nobody viewed it as a long term home. Riley Reiff might be a good comparable for Williams as a possible stick to tackle despite getting knocked down due to concerns he’d be a guard. I feel like he was projected high at a point.
  7. derp

    Jonah Williams

    Often when a guy starts to get the tackle to guard conversion tag it's for a good reason. I'm sure there's a recent example where this didn't happen that I'm not thinking of, but it's a pretty big red flag in the pre-draft process. Some of those guys end up being outstanding guards, but people started viewing Williams as a top 10 pick because they liked him as a tackle prospect originally. That despite being viewed that way, several analysts look at him and see a guard is telling IMO.
  8. derp

    Forum on DK Metcalf

    Raw college production doesn't matter a lot because scheme comparability, supporting cast, etc are challenging. There are exceptions but college market share can be telling as well as production by age (which was a red flag for Kevin White for example). Guys who put up big market share numbers at younger ages (actual age not college class) tend to have a better chance of NFL success. With Metcalf the concern isn't that he's not producing, but that he's got another teammate who was significantly more productive at the same position.
  9. This board is going to be so fun when the offseason consists of signing Tevin Coleman, Ty Nsekhe, Tavon Austin, and Jamon Brown and spend the rest of the money on the front 7 and a corner.
  10. I don’t really understand paying for a backup. Jets aren’t winning with a backup quarterback. Let a QB coach be the QB coach, roll with a young guy who has upside to become an asset if he shows well if he has to see the field, allocate assets elsewhere. Should be Webb or a draft pick IMO (and I’d rather not spend a draft pick on a QB).
  11. derp

    Forum on DK Metcalf

    I know he’s really talented and some big draft guys seem to be fans of his, but I was hoping to see a more natural receiver than in those first couple of clips.
  12. derp

    Jets make a move for ...... Kap?

    Main tweet is from “Ian Rapoport” - @SportsTalkBarry In case you weren’t sure, I can confirm Rapoport’s twitter is not @SportsTalkBarry. Would also guess something like ESPN might have picked this up by now.
  13. I think they sign Coleman and/or draft Devin Singletary.
  14. Well with 0 faith it literally doesn't matter what he does. With limited faith, better for him to have more attempts at it and hope he gets lucky.

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