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derp

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About derp

  • Birthday 02/22/1989

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  1. I think 2020 was clearly about depth more than top end talent and that shows once you get past the top guys in those classes. Top end talent in 2021 was definitely better and got drafted accordingly. And 2019 had really good players but the NFL didn’t draft them that way. In some ways I think the production of the 2019 day 2 guys led to guys getting pushed up in subsequent classes.
  2. It’s actually college market share of yards and touchdowns. If you want to read about it the terms to look for would be dominator rating, especially age adjusted dominator rating. Translates pretty well.
  3. Been continuing to think about this. Wide receiver prospects are complicated. On a really high level, I think there are two big things that wide receivers can bring to the table - big play ability and the ability to produce on volume. I think to be a good pro you need to bring at least one of those things to the table, and the large majority of the truly special wide receivers in the league can do both of those things. There are a lot of ways you can do each of those things. Guys can create big plays because they're big and fast enough and elite on the boundary so they're threats for deep passes, because they're fast so they're threats for deep passes, maybe both, because they're elite after the catch due to some combination of strength/speed/vision/change of direction, a mix of being downfield threats and good after the catch, or I'm sure there are thins I'm missing. Being a volume threat can come via route running/quickness and/or size/contested ability and is usually paired with excellent hands. Volume guys can play out wide but increasingly they work out of the slot area. Coming into the league, I think you either need to be really, really sure that a guy is going to bring one of those things to the table or ideally you hope that he can do both. Boils down to looking at a mix of traits and production. If we want guys to be able to produce on volume, production is a key component of that. And I think the thing that's translated best is college market share of receiving production - the guy who had 1,000 yards on an offense that passed for 2,000 is more impressive than the guy who had 1,000 yards on an offense that passed for 5,000. If a guy's college didn't think they needed to run the passing offense through him, it's not impossible but difficult to get to the point that he's good enough that a pro offense is going to feel that way. And, if he's never been asked to be the go-to guy, how do we know that he's actually capable of it? Lots of hits, producing through defensive attention, etc. Ultimately that gets really complicated for guys who have come from schools with elite receiver rooms - like Garrett Wilson. Ohio State was pretty loaded at wide receiver, probably three guys who go top 11 in their respective drafts. Wilson beat out Jameson Williams for a role at OSU and Williams went 12th after an ACL injury sustained at the end of a monster year at Alabama where he leapfrogged a guy who was supposed to be a first round pick for their targets. All that said - we genuinely don't know if Wilson is really capable of being the guy on an offense. Ohio State never asked him to shoulder a heavy load on their offense, and they didn't really need him to. Not being the guy in college isn't something that disqualifies him from being the guy at the pro level, Justin Jefferson ran behind Ja'Marr Chase and is absolutely elite - but the flip side is I think even Jefferson had a higher proportion of LSU's passing yards than Wilson did OSU's. Maybe DK Metcalf, but he was a completely different level of freak athlete. We know Wilson can create explosive plays and produce as part of a good offense - and maybe that's all he needs to do on an offense that now has a decent amount of skill position talent, be a threat and put up some numbers. But I don't think we really have a good sense of his #1, elite receiver potential. Moore honestly was a better size adjusted athlete coming out of college, he's just shorter and I don't think can win off the ground or in contested situations the way Wilson can. But Moore was an absolute volume monster his last year at Ole Miss AND created big plays. He came into the pros as a pretty ready made high volume slot weapon with big play upside, and I think he could've been a monster last year if he was on a good offense and stayed healthy. Slot guys with change of direction and good route running are kind of a cheat code for easy passing game yardage, and him being a vertical slot on top of that made him pretty dangerous. Wilson has the size, but in terms of being a productive pro Moore's a cleaner fit. Now the Jets played him inside and out, he was actually more productive outside (which gives him more upside and makes them a really interesting 1-2 punch as two guys with position versatility), and we don't know about him staying healthy. But it's why I think Moore was a better bet to be a good pro, and probably a better prospect. Really the big knock was size, and he should be elite out of the slot as his floor, and I think is more prepared to be a primary passing game option. Hopefully they push each other. It'd be really fun to have a solid 1-2 punch that complements each other well for a while.
  4. Yeah, I don’t think the Jets were the right place, at least as of last year. Recent developments are encouraging at least, the talent level is increasing and it’s a pretty QB friendly system. I think the alpha leader grab the team by the balls thing is pretty overrated. Aaron Rodgers is up there with the weirdest dudes in the league and has been at the top end of QB play for a while. I can’t imagine anyone on that team finds him relatable. Herbert seems like a pretty quiet dude and is tearing up the league. Mayfield got the alpha leader tag, busted, and now nobody wants him. Wilson needs to earn respect by working hard and playing well, that’s his only path to being respected because he is definitely a little quirky, and he at least seems to at least have enough self awareness to understand that’s how he needs to carve out his space instead of just forcing his personality on the locker room.
  5. This does kind of fly in the face of the idea that SF wanted Wilson, no? Unless they’re also bad QB evaluators? I still view drafting early QB’s as throwing crap against the wall and seeing what sticks and think teams are largely terrible at it but the whole Wilson White thing is simpler than the knot you’ve twisted yourself into. Jets drafted a QB based on physical tools - Douglas clearly values arm strength, this offense requires mobility, and traits based drafting is what NFL teams use when deciding who to select early - and college production playing against a soft schedule behind an absolutely dominant line of 24-25 year olds playing against college kids after getting back from their missions. They then stuck him into a terrible situation he wasn’t prepared for and decided to let him take his lumps. And Mike White just isn’t very good. He caught a little magic and if he’d hung onto it I think he would’ve kept playing, but we’ll never know what would’ve happened if he kept playing well because he didn’t. I love Wilson’s physical tools, I was very early on the “holy crap this guy is talented” train as like a mid first round pick when nobody was talking about him, and he continued to rise. You dig in more and the offensive line and stuff was a flag. He’s also clearly a little weird and awkward which just makes it so much easier to bang on him. But plenty of good quarterbacks are weird in different ways, and he’s weird in a way that I think he’s pretty committed to football. So who knows. It was nice that he stopped turning the ball over late last year and if he works out he’s going to be really fun to watch stylistically. We just hope for the best at this point. I also think the season hinging on Wilson is kind of nonsense honestly. If the team is good enough around him then they can win games and at least they finally have a situation to bring a young QB into and not absolutely crush his soul, or a vet and try to be a win now group. The rookie QB deal is huge, if you get league average play on a good team you’re a contender. Rams got to a Super Bowl with Goff who was a bust and then replaced him and won one. Eagles built a team with a rookie QB that was so good they won a SB with his backup who’s done nothing since but will never pay for a drink in Philly again. They’re not going to be that good this year but a few things break right and they get out of some contacts and that can be a legitimate conversation next year. That obviously requires hitting on their other picks but if that happens this thing gets interesting very quickly.
  6. It’s honestly not a terrible schedule. That’s just the NFL. We also don’t really know how matchups will work. Are they going to play sides, and if not how do they want to deploy the guys they have? It also strikes me that Reed is a shorter, quick DB who mirrors well but doesn’t have elite long speed. Sauce has better recovery speed and length. So letting Reed mirror the more technically savvy route runners who are are pretty prevalent as #1’s but giving him safety help over the top may make sense. Especially now given he’s a little more experienced and maybe better prepared to handle technicians, especially in the short to intermediate areas, as Sauce adjust to the pro level. Against the Bengals for example, I could argue that MCII on Boyd, Sauce on Higgins, and Reed on Chase with safety help is smart. Could be similar with the Vikings and Jefferson/Thielen. Sauce will have multiple smaller, shiftier guys to practice against too which I’m sure will help his development. He’s got great fluidity for his size so he could absolutely be ready to do that stuff week one but if the jump is hard it could be helpful for both guys - with Reed being smaller too - to be deployed in that fashion, certainly in certain matchups. Against the Dolphins both guys are smaller and have wheels so it probably depends more what areas of the field they’ll attack with each player. And all that said, they may just play sides anyway.
  7. A solid point. I do think there’s a little distinction between IDL and edge. Interior I think technique is so so key, on the outside it’s more of a one on one matchup where athleticism is huge. Some guys can develop really good technique over time to handle losing a step or two, but I think if he’s not able to win with athleticism + technique early it puts him a little more behind the 8 ball as he continue to age than it does for the interior guys.
  8. I think you can throw Moore in there as a big player unknown. Had that great little stretch last year but also miss a lot of games. Can he play say 15+ games and let us extrapolate last year's stats or is he going to continue to be banged up and/or that stretch was just a heater and he comes back down to earth? Also high level on defense three pretty big questions - does interior DL play improve or get worse with more consistent guys in there but down the best run stuffer, what in the world does linebacker play look like this year, and who wins the role on the back end next to Whitehead? Love having pass rushers and corners but lots of questions up the middle.
  9. Given his age I think it's key he produces early since there's not a lot of projection. Fun player though. The pop/length/strength/aggressiveness/violence - whatever you want to call it - that he plays with kind of makes me think of the guys on those elite Seattle defenses. No one in particular, just the style of play the guys on those defenses seemed to have. It's fun having a little DL depth where he's a guy who they can find a role for if he earns it instead of them absolutely needing him to play snaps.
  10. Moore was analytically a better prospect and I think a far safer bet to be a quality contributor coming out, but guys coming from loaded offenses like Wilson are really hard to evaluate on numbers alone and he was productive with good tools so I get the appeal. I like that they can both play inside out. Hopefully the Jets have a 1-2 punch for the next decade.
  11. I think this offense wants to run, run, run honestly. That and lots of easy throws. It's why Mike White executed it well. The Breece Hall selection just furthers that belief. Eventually they want to be able to win passing the ball, but I think that's going to take time to develop unless you luck into a Pro Bowl level QB and WR like the Bengals. Having a really good run game afford them that time. They've invested a lot in wide receivers, but they also started at probably the worst WR group in the NFL when Douglas was hired and at this point having WR's who can separate from man coverage is basically as much of a prerequisite for having a functional NFL offense as anything else.
  12. Probably a defense you’d rather get week one than week eighteen with a bunch of new guys in the secondary. I’m especially not so sure Hamilton comes out the gates hot, particularly against an offense that has a bunch of smaller faster guys. Still don’t really get how he translates. Don’t think the Jets defense matches up well with what Baltimore does on offense though. I wonder if they put Gardner on Andrews.
  13. I think the bold is the answer on both sides of the ball, and why San Francisco got so much better all at once. Once things start to improve they compound quickly. I think a better run offense would have a big impact on the defense, for example. There’s probably a little to the focus on being disruptive and having linebackers fill too. It’s kind of risky but interesting. Defense is effectively structured to combat offenses throwing the ball a lot, offense is kind of structured to play well against smaller defenses that are designed to defend the pass. Part of why Seattle and SF had that little resurgence. It is annoying that Miami is basically doing the same thing and Belichick gets to game plan to play the same style of team 4x a year.
  14. I choose to believe this is a direct quote about the development of the freaky athlete they drafted in the sixth round last year.
  15. Only three teams had 50+ sacks last year, so that's a pretty high bar. The top 14 teams had 40 and that's a pretty nice bar. Mostly playoff teams too, need the other team to be throwing the ball to sack the quarterback and that happens more when you've got a lead or the game is competitive. I don't know if the Jets have one guy who puts up crazy numbers, especially with the rotation and all the bodies, but I think they have more guys who have a decent chunk of sacks than last year.
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