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derp

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Everything posted by derp

  1. The difference Hall made was palpable. I’m a huge fan of Carter as well. That said, we don’t know how long it’s going to take Carter to round back into form and I think the Hall pick was an example of how you can get big play ability a little more cheaply when it’s a running back. Wouldn’t mind them going back to that again with someone like Devon Achane day two next year.
  2. I could be wrong but I took it as where they rank in the rates at which they are playing those coverages versus where they rank in success when using those coverages. Point being their zone is bad but they're not playing man.
  3. A big part why Rodgers getting traded is being discussed more right now is that Jordan Love went 6/9 for 113 and a TD against the Eagles after Rodgers got hurt. The general premise is that they’d trade him if they feel like it’s time to go to Love as they hit a little reset because the team is so bad.
  4. I think it depends person to person. I think very few guys are going to be good regardless (I don’t think anyone was ruining Manning or Luck), a lot of guys are going to be bad regardless (don’t think anyone was going to develop Sanchez any better or Manziel or Gabbert ever had a chance), and there’s a chunk of who benefit from better circumstances and/or coming along slowly. But it’s very very easy to ruin a guy so it gets pretty evident when someone in one of those latter categories goes to a bad situation. Because so few guys will be successful regardless of their circumstances. And I think more goes into circumstances than sitting. In fact in some cases I think it’s helpful to let someone sit just so you’re not throwing them into a horrible situation.
  5. So realistically it needs to be stratified differently (draft position and quality of prospect likely matters and explains some of your data - 2/3 the sit > 1Y hits are top 32 picks whereas 5/9 of the sit >1Y busts are second rounders, 6/14 play right away hits are top overall guys and 3/16 of the play right away busts are top overall guys), the sample size is small regardless, and there’s a bias baked in that in general teams are more likely to play guys who are ready to play earlier and those guys are more likely to be good. My response to your last post was most of the guys who can overcome bad circumstances go #1 and the rest (including some of the #1 picks) need support which can be defense/run game/organization, skill talent, and/or sitting. Not all guys who get support will succeed, most of the ones who don’t get it will fail. I still think that.
  6. The Athletic's football podcast speculated on this yesterday - specifically to the Jets. I think the cap hit seemed manageable unless I misheard listening at 2.5x speed - $16M. They put the price at a one and a two. Depends how the rest of the season goes.
  7. Take away last week and it’s still six of seven. And both have played plenty with Wilson. But keep up the bad Bears defense excuse.
  8. It’s interesting in a lot of ways. Manning, Burrow, Stafford, Newton, and Lawrence were number one overall picks. Other top picks haven’t fared as well. Ryan was the first QB taken in his class. Then you have the guys who went later. Carr was a small school guy who tanked - I honestly don’t know how much his brother’s failures were related. He’s worked out great for where he was taken but hasn’t been elite. Flacco and Roethlisberger went to elite franchises that supported them from the jump - defense run game etc. Flacco had basically the one Super Bowl run on his rookie deal but was never that noteworthy statistically. Tannehill worked out but not for the team that drafted him and is in one of those supported by a run game situations. That leaves Herbert who wasn’t supposed to start, there was an injury, and he’s been great. Not an awesome team but they’ve got skill talent there for sure and had it from day one, I think that helps in a similar way to the run game or defense. Missing are a lot of the quarterbacks who got drafted high and played and haven’t worked out. And there are a lot of them. The Jets alone have had three drafted in the top five who played right away over that stretch. I don’t think a binary “don’t play quarterbacks early” rule works. I do think that quarterbacks fall into two buckets. Transcendent guys who can overcome poor circumstances, and guys who need support early in their career. The transcendent guys aren’t available every year and basically exclusively go first overall. If you’re not taking a guy first overall, odds are he needs support. That can take many forms: run game and defense, high end pass catchers to give him some easy stuff to go to, time to develop. But by and large those guys who get taken second, third, fourth, fifth overall on terrible teams who get tossed out there get chewed up and spit out by the league. I genuinely believe it’s better to build a good ecosystem to develop a quarterback than it is to take a talented guy early for the sake of it. Which is why whether they sit him or not I’d feel better about the Jets drafting and developing a quarterback now with the run game, defense, Garrett Wilson, tight ends, etc than I have for a while. Doesn’t always work (Mark Sanchez) but I think it gives you a better shot of letting the guy grow into playing in the league. Lots of high end guys started off more game manager-y and then gradually grew into being really productive.
  9. What is Saleh going to say other than the plan is still to get Wilson on the field? If he says no he gets killed for deviating from the plan so fast. And if White comes back to earth and Wilson gets the job back he gets killed for flip flopping. There’s no upside to changing his tune other than getting a tiny modicum of happiness out of the fan base for saying what everyone’s thinking out loud. If the offense is still humming in a few weeks, very easy to step up to the podium and say White stays out there and the plan is scrapped because they can’t mess with a good thing. And if he doesn’t do that under those circumstances, then he absolutely deserves to hear it from the fan base. For now, the plan is still the plan is what he should be saying publicly even if he knows/thinks/hopes that White probably takes this job and runs with it for at least the rest of this season.
  10. The NFL hasn't truly figured out how to pay non elite quarterbacks. Mike White right now is playing on a team built around a quarterback on a rookie contract. The Jets are spending like $14M on quarterbacks this year. The mid tier guys are like Kirk Cousins making $30M and Derek Carr making $40M. It's a pretty dramatic difference and it impacts how you can build a team. And their teams are okay, but Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were great on rookie deals and not good enough for that to carry over when they got paid. Even the Jets had Mark Sanchez playing at a functional level on his rookie deal - good enough for back to back AFCCG appearances - and that went away when the roster got less loaded because he got paid. Finding the line between whether a guy can win when you're spending 15-20% of your cap on him versus under 10% is tough. Easy enough for someone like Mahomes. Harder for the Cousins and Carr tier where those guys aren't obvious freaks. That's probably where White would fall if things are really rolling. Ultimately we've seen guys who have it click when they're a little older. Kurt Warner and Rich Gannon come to mind. Brees made a big jump when he got to New Orleans around the age White is now. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility White gets to that mid tier and is solid enough for the team to be good while he's making $30M or so. He also had a couple turnover worthy throws yesterday, as much of a blast I had watching watching him, and we've seen the wheels come off. I think it's good they're giving him a few games to see what they have.
  11. You’re refusing to address the forgetting the play call part of things. It’s pretty easy to remember something like a play call for under a minute. Play clock is 40 seconds. If that he can’t remember a play for that small a window, there’s probably something going on that can be medically treated. That he might need to prepare better and might have a medical condition that needs to be treated aren’t mutually exclusive ideas. I’m sure he needs to prepare better too. No amount of preparation is going to help him remember something for 40 seconds. Bigger issue than his preparation is he’s extraordinarily lackadaisical on the field. Sloppy footwork for no reason, not throwing the ball all the way out of bounds when he’s trying to throw it away, etc. It’s like a little leaguer trying to imitate their favorite professional baseball player with their batting stance and swing, only he’s a professional athlete and not good enough to play like Rodgers at the NFL level.
  12. Isn’t the issue being discussed not being able to recall a play when it’s called to when he gets to the line of scrimmage? That’s under a minute. Sounds a whole lot more like inattentiveness than lack of preparedness to me. I also think the only reasons he got away with sandlot stuff at BYU were 1) his line was insanely good and 2) the competition they faced his junior year was awful. Regardless, don’t know what his style of play in college has to do with forgetting the play that was called. There’s a difference between knowing the play call is X and not knowing what you’re supposed to do - that’d be preparation - and walking to the line of scrimmage not remembering what play you just called out to your teammates.
  13. If he has an ADHD diagnosis and the play forgetting is accurate it’s pretty clearly impacting his ability to function so I imagine that scenario would be considered severe enough to require medication. Frankly he shouldn’t have a diagnosis if it doesn’t impair function.
  14. I guess I’d argue it doesn’t explain much unless he was abusing it in college, since if he needs it for a medical condition I’m sure he’s still taking it in the NFL. The WFAN guys you were listening to probably just gave a picture that was accurate but incomplete and doesn’t apply to this situation.
  15. Unless the policy has changed, players with a diagnosis can submit for an exception with the league and take the medication. It’s just not supposed to be abused by folks who don’t need it but can get a competitive advantage from taking it. Stimulants are the most evidence based treatment for ADHD and accordingly first line, it’d be pretty wild if they didn’t allow players with a diagnosis to take medication they’ve probably taken their whole lives.
  16. For the sentiment he’s signed for three more years, it’s three if he shows he’s worth hanging onto after this coming season. If not, there’s no real reason to pick up what isn’t a cheap fifth year option. And as for the sentiment that they’ll try to develop him still, I largely agree. That said, it’s kind of hard to ignore how the team has responded to White. Maybe it’s just not playing a struggling quarterback, but if it runs deeper than that a change of scenery may be best for all parties.
  17. derp

    Bam

    Looked solid. Great call to activate him.
  18. Most fun I’ve had watching a Jets quarterback since…Mike White in 2021.
  19. I think it may have been Mike White’s team since some time last season.
  20. I think this is part of why White is a thing right now. It’s almost needs to be Wilson, vet, draft pick next TC. If the vet can be a guy who’s been on the roster, knows the system, is liked in the locker room, and played well to close 2022 - awesome. Moreover, I joke about the Foles thing, but this roster is loaded and Foles got hot and won the Super Bowl on a loaded roster with a #2 overall pick at QB who rubbed people the wrong way. All that to say, let’s listen to the magnet on my fridge - **** around and find out. And kind of like I was getting at earlier, this situation can be like the Eagles with Hurts in 2021. Just load up on future draft capital. Need a QB? You’ve got ammo. Don’t? You’ve got assets to put around your QB. This is a nice class with a bunch of seniors who’ve ended their career well, won some games, presumably will play at the Senior Bowl, and will go in the round 2-4 range. Great year to shoot a shot at one of those guys and see if you get lucky with a Prescott, Wilson, or Hurts in the middle of the draft. And if not and they’ve got extra capital for 2024, the rule of QB’s is that next year’s class is always better - but between Williams and Maye there are definitely interesting guys. At the end of the day this current roster is 6-4 with bottom of the league QB play and given a choice I’d rather see if I can find a rookie contract guy who will give say middle of the league QB play or more on a good roster than reshape to fit a middle of the league level QB and see how he does on a roster that’s worse than this one. Feels like a better risk-reward. Worst case we’re back where we started with bottom of the league level play, reasonable case you get five years of middle of the road QB play cheap, long shot you get a Mahomes/Allen/Herbert (two of whom were traded up for and none of whom went top five).
  21. @FidelioJet I got lazy because I didn’t want to retype this but here a more flushed out version of what I was just saying in response to you.
  22. He’s not the reason for the mess, but he’s also not good enough to elevate what’s not a bad roster beyond being 3-7. He’s making $40M annually, the Jets are $17M under the cap before signing a rookie class. You’re effectively looking at losing something like Lawson, Davis, McGovern, and the ability to upgrade at spots like safety and linebacker instead of signing bargain basement guys. You need elite QB play or a rookie deal. Not good QB play. Only non HOF veteran starting contract QB to win in the last like 25 years is Stafford. Other than that it’s Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning, and teams with a rookie QB. Foles won as a cheap vet on a team with a QB on a rookie deal. But the point remains even with him, loaded roster because of a rookie QB or elite QB play.
  23. I think roster wise looking at losing guys like Lawson and Davis, it’s doable but the team is still worse than with them. Projected $17M in cap space without a full roster, a chunk goes to draft picks, losing Lawson and Davis gets them probably to afford Carr or Garoppolo and a draft class. Need a bargain basement starters to replace McGovern, Quincy Williams, Joyner, and Zuerlein with only the draft and minimum level guys to accomplish that, upgrade the roster elsewhere, develop pipelines for the aging OL and LB groups, etc. Ultimately I don’t think it’s as simple as it sounds on paper. The bet is that Carr or Garoppolo with a worse team than this year’s is a Super Bowl contender - but this team is worse than SF before it gets even worse to fit Garoppolo and Carr isn’t producing at a high on what’s currently a flawed but talented roster (elite run game, WR, other good pass catchers). I think that bet is almost certain to fail, to the point that it’s not worth trying. Similar to how I felt about just taking a shot on their favorite QB at #2 on 2021 and playing him immediately on a trash roster with a rookie coaching staff. I go back to this idea a lot - Super Bowl winning QB’s are effectively rookies, Hall of Famers (Brady, Brees, Manning, Manning) and Stafford. Shy of a HOFer coming available, which Carr is not, I’ll roll the dice on a rookie. Adding Carr to this roster feels like a recipe to be a worse version of the Rams that doesn’t fully go for it, exits in the wild card, and then gets the hangover anyway. I realize I’m ragging on him not Garoppolo, but the SF now is better than the Jets now argument seems like enough. He’s either not able to win on a better team or he wins and I doubt they let him go (or he wants to go). Not to mention his injury history.
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