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Everything posted by derp

  1. Cameron Clark steps in for an injured Alex Lewis and starts his 10 year run as a starting guard.
  2. Adams has no leverage and an elevated sense of his value. It’s a challenging combination. Jets have four years of control below what he’s likely asking for annually, he gets hammered with fines if he holds out, and we’re mid pandemic unsure if there will be a season and what the impact will be on the cap. Tons of reasons not to extend him now and that he lacks leverage. So there were basically three ways for him to play this. Wait until there’s less uncertainty to get the extension when the team has less control and will pay you more. Take a contract that gives you a significant raise but is below what you think you’re worth while you don’t have leverage so you get paid now. Or try to create leverage by stamping your feet. He chose three. It sucks that he’s got no leverage but this is so bad optically. One first round guy in his class has been extended, he’s throwing a fit, and a bunch of other guys who have outplayed their contracts are just hanging out because they have no leverage and they know it.
  3. Good stuff. They certainly do seem to like him and by all means he could start since OLB is very up in the air as he was trying to point out, but man what a strange thing to (unintentionally) be very definitive about. And I thought he was another ILB type too. Williams obviously moves guys around quite a bit so I think he plays both, but he jumped out more there.
  4. Harvey Langi is his locked in starter at OLB. Huh.
  5. Please explain how the Jets extending Adams, who wants north of $20M annually and would make less than that in each the next four years of team control including in the second year of a franchise tag, would give them more cap flexibility. I’d also add that the player who wants more than 33% more than the current highest paid safety and doesn’t think his team should take calls on him because he thinks he’s in the Tom Brady, Aaron Donald tier may be challenging to negotiate with.
  6. I’d be thrilled with two one’s, happy with a one and a two, and fine but a little disappointed with a one and a three...so a one and a three sounds right. Value of players is tough to pinpoint but I have to imagine them eating into the second pick. Need a one back.
  7. Jeremy Fowler says he wants well over $20M per year. This is all very validating as someone who shifted to being tired of Adams pre-draft.
  8. Which of those teams could accidentally sneak the Jets into the top ten of next year’s draft via trade? Too bad the Texans no longer have anything to offer. Imagine this happening when they had Hopkins.
  9. After taking into account what’s going on in the world, have there ever been worse optics surrounding asking to be traded due to a contract dispute? I’m kidding, but I’m not.
  10. I think Carter is slightly more likely but there’s a good chance both make it. Edge has more need for a starter but also has more depth. There is very little depth at safety, Carter can play some corner as well, and is apparently a really bright dude - think all of those work strongly in his favor. Huff has a great chance too but there are a bunch of backup type edge rushers on the roster he’ll be competing with.
  11. My first reaction to this post was excitement that George Campbell was invited to this and attending. I then took a step back to think about why I’d be most excited about George Campbell, what that means about who I am as a fan, what this franchise has done to me, and what I can do to be better Still processing everything. Will obviously keep you guys posted.
  12. “We think Cam can extend his career at tackle so we’re developing him there but letting him throw a couple passes as he puts weight on to be able to play up front.”
  13. I agree they’re similar and I don’t think it’s an accident. Based on the way talent has been brought in I think the goal is low volume big play threats on the outside with more of the passing game being funneled through the middle of the field (slot, tight end, etc). Spread the field vertically, get players the ball in space, and make teams pay when they overcommit to defending the middle of the field. I think we’re so used to the traditional idea that a team’s top two receivers are outside guys that people look at Perriman and Mims as the number one and two receivers. But Crowder is going to lead the team in targets if he’s healthy - the lesser of Perriman and Mims will at best be third one the team in targets. Crowder is absolutely not a traditional top target, though if at some point they get to Perriman or Mims demanding a similar amount of targets outside to what Crowder is getting from the slot then Crowder settles into a #2 possession type role he’s frankly very well suited for and the #3 target continues to keep the field spread as a deep threat. It’s not ideal - though the elite receivers often aren’t on winning teams anyway and it’s an interesting allocation of resources. The real interesting thing will be if they’re able to acquire a more explosive slot guy to be more of a true alpha on the offense - or an elite tight end to do the same. Ideally both. That’s basically what the Chiefs run out personnel wise.
  14. I think some form of variation of the 4-2-5 makes a lot of sense as a base defense and have appreciated your posts on the topic. That said, its mind boggling how many off ball LB’s the Jets have. Doesn’t seem super indicative of going in that direction yet.
  15. I think that’s the issue with him asking for this extension after three years. The Jets have three, frankly four years of control over him at figures well below the $17M being discussed in your back and forth. The benefit to the team of the extension is the additional years of control and there’s little to no amount of additional years of having him under contract in a four or five year extension scenario. It really doesn’t make financial sense, especially when you’re considering how much more he’s going to be making in the first few years than he would have. The issue is that he’s upset he’s underpaid but he also wants to sign a huge deal as the top safety. Douglas can make a responsible decision to pay him more in the short term in exchange for additional control - but a reasonable deal that gets him a raise and makes sense for the team financially won’t hit the figures he’s looking for. And the huge deal is so far above and beyond what he’s making, plus they control him for for long enough - so there’s really no way to make that work this offseason. Thus why extending next year is probably what they’re targeting at the numbers he’s looking for. My guess is Adams is coming to the table with no leverage, being told he has no leverage and has to not sign a top safety in the league deal or wait a year, and then throwing a hissy fit because there’s nothing else he can do - even though extensions are this stage are rare.
  16. And is down to 245 pounds. Maybe he could switch to strong safety?
  17. I mean 3-32 is, while not exactly 4-45, basically right there to the point of being basically identical. It's 8.9% vs. 9.4% - the closest you could get to the 4-45 pace with 32 picks. Further - the four players re-signed were good Jets and were in the NFL 10+ years. Enunwa's career is over and Winters may not be a Jet by the time football is being played again. Jenkins is the only one who seems to even be on pace to have a career as good as the four in the OP. And the Jets got a huge haul back for Keyshawn that ended up being a huge part of setting the team up for early-mid 2000's success. Leonard WIlliams and Darron Lee were traded but both for pennies on the dollar because they didn't live up to their draft position. And my point was not even that 3-32 was worse - though I kind of think it was. But the team has horrible draft history within the last few years - why go back to the horrible drafting of 1995-1999? The recent examples are comparably awful and much more relevant to the current state of the franchise.
  18. From 2013-2016 (first two years of Maccagnan which are the only ones you can really evaluate to this point and the two Idzik years) the Jets drafted 32 players. Only three are still with the Jets. Of those three - one is on a one year deal, one is likely done playing due to a neck injury, and one is a potential cap casualty. Those are the only three to earn second contracts. Only fourteen of the 32 are still in or close to the NFL in any capacity - counting guys like Charone Peake who was recently signed to a reserve/futures deal and then waived shortly after. Six of the fourteen are 2016 draft picks. Two first round picks (Pryor, Milliner), two second round picks (Hackenberg, Amaro), and two third round picks (Mauldin, McDougle) are among the 18 out of the league. Of the nine players drafted in 2017 only two (Adams, Maye) are still with the Jets and four are out of the league. So good chance this doesn’t improve much one more draft in.
  19. I mean I'd take him regardless too but I wouldn't expect it. I think in terms of likelihood of having a given number of receivers on the field for the Jets - 3>2>4>5>1. Think they're trying to build an outside group distinct from a slot group. If Mims or Perriman gets used as a big slot this year and does well I'd change my perspective from a likelihood standpoint. Would gladly be wrong about them taking Terry if Perriman's back - and I'd rather have Terry than Perriman. I just don't know if they keep investing outside if Perriman gets signed longer term after this season. I can't see them going empty a whole lot and in addition to Gase being a big TE guy I think Darnold loves throwing to the tight end too so I can't really argue with making sure those guys are on the field. On that note - this TE class projects to be good, Herndon hasn't proven he can stay on the field - and even if he has they run 12 enough that I think it's a sleeper position to get addressed this draft.
  20. Same general idea I said more but I'd love Waddle too. I am almost undoubtedly wrong but in my opinion the Jets want to run a lot of 11 and 12 personnel and have the slot be the focal point of the offense. Crowder is steady in that role, but I suspect they'd like a more explosive player to be the centerpiece of the offense and to run that guy out of the slot. Spread the field vertically with big, fast outside receivers and from the slot as well but also find creative guys to get your slot the ball. Seam stretcher at tight end too, pass to set up the run, and you're set. Less investment in the outside guys and more volatility out there because of it, but if they're capable deep threats then they open things up underneath for a lot of guys and create big plays when defenses don't pay enough attention. Win-win. I think Terry is underrated as well. Would be really happy with him if Perriman goes and they continue to build the outside group.
  21. What's the contract? What's the trade compensation? I'd rather sign him for 4/$50M than trade him for a second round pick, but I'd rather trade him for two first round picks than sign him for 5/$90M.
  22. I’d be really curious to know how the locker room feels about this. I feel like the dudes who are leaders understand how leverage and negotiations work, quietly get their deal done, and go about their business. How often do you see guys get into contract disputes and then go on and everything’s rosy? Regardless of where they land, really.
  23. The Jets have Adams under control for a reasonable salary over the next two years. They can also franchise him after that - the franchise tag for safeties was $11.5M this past year. Say it grows to $12.5M two tags from now. Cap hits if he gets franchised aggregate out to roughly $30M over three years. That includes $3.5M in prorated bonus so let’s call their current control three years, $27M. I think can extend that further out, too - if the new CBA tag rules changed then I’m wrong here and I apologize. But I believe the second franchise tag gets a 20% raise. A third would be the greater of a 44% raise or the quarterback tag - obviously the quarterback tag. If we hit the $12.5M with 20% we get to $15M, and the quarterback tag was $27M - let’s say it’s $35M by then. I think this is all conservative, who knows what happens with salaries. So the Jets can hang on to Adams - if he plays nicely (which he won’t) for 2/$14M, 3/$27M, 4/$42M, or 5/$77M - continue tagging if they want. That’s obviously not what I think will or should happen, but they’re important benchmarks when you look at the negotiations from Douglas’ standpoint. I suspect there are two benchmarks for Adams. Eddie Jackson is currently the highest paid safety - four years, $58.4M ($14.6M annually). And CJ Mosley is the highest paid Jet - five years, $85M ($17M annually). Given Adams feels that he’s an elite player in the NFL and the best player on the Jets I imagine he wants to exceed both and that is where his current demands are. In a negotiation you certainly have to start north of where you want to end up anyway. I think Douglas is a very practical guy and Adams cares about the optics of the deal. He wants to be paid - probably as the highest paid Jet, certainly the highest paid safety. And I think the divide there is too big. I don’t see Douglas straying too far from what he can control Adams for already. This is a way easier negotiation when the Jets don’t have him under control for $3.5M the following year. The 2/$14M, 3/$27M, 4/$42M, or 5/$77M above becomes 1/$10M, 2/$23M, 3/$38M or 4/$73M. Highest paid safety money starts to make more financial sense for the team. An extension now doesn’t benefit the team other than shutting Adams up...until he feels he’s underpaid again. Which is the issue with guys who negotiate through the media, hold out, etc. Couple safeties get paid more and I imagine he’ll want a new deal again. Adams has so little leverage right now - particularly with the holding out rules. To me it’s better to sit quietly, play better next year, and earn an even bigger contract than you would’ve gotten next year when you have a way better negotiating position. I’m sure he’s not endearing himself to anyone. I get why he wants the deal now but I have no clue why any of this is surprising.

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