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Posts posted by derp

  1. I thought Shenault got hurt before his first run, pulled up kind of funny towards the end after they made him restart. And then didn’t run again right? Still think he’s a potential faller but it’s those injuries and the rawness you mentioned. I like him though. Can get used like Deebo Samuel early and he’s a hands catcher.

  2. 11 minutes ago, Greenseed4 said:


    Yeah, but in fairness this list is sorted by receptions which is a stat that favors the tall/lumbering possession receiver types, or the short area quick guys (that can get open) but don't have long speed.   If we adjusted this chart to reflect receiving yards we'd likely see a skew in the athletic averages.  

    I looked at yards a few weeks ago. It’s the same group but you add DeVante Parker (4.45), Kenny Golladay (4.50), Mike Evans (4.53), and Stefon Diggs (4.46). You lose Crowder, Lockett, Adams, and Boyd. (4.40, 4.56, 4.56, and 4.58). Not a dramatic skew. You actually lose the second fastest guy on the list and the fastest is a freak way beyond pure speed.

    Guys who can play in the mid 4.4’s to mid 4.5’s are fine. Dudes get overdrafted when they run in the 4.2’s and 4.3’s but lack size. Being fast doesn’t make you bad, I’ll take Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson every day of the week, but those guys are all around height weight speed freaks. I don’t think running by guys translates at the NFL level. Need to have the strength and ball skills to win at the catch point and the agility to get open. Wheels are gravy.

    • Like 2

  3. 4 hours ago, Lith said:

    Before we all get too crazy iover 40 times and test results -- Here are some combine numbers for 16 WRs with most receptions in 2019.  Was originally gonna do 15, but since Crowder was 16th, I epxended the list to include a Jet.  Not much crazy athleticism, except Julio and maybe DJ Moore.



    Player Tm Rec Yds Ht Wt 40 Vert 3 Cone Broad Jump
    Michael Thomas NOR 149 1,725 6-3 212 4.57 35.0 6.80 126
    Keenan Allen LAC 104 1,199 6-2 211 4.71 36.0    
    DeAndre Hopkins HOU 104 1,165 6-1 212 4.57 36.0   115
    Julian Edelman NWE 100 1,117 5-10 198 4.52 36.5 6.62 123
    Julio Jones ATL 99 1,394 6-3 220 4.34 38.5 6.66 135
    Allen Robinson CHI 98 1,147 6-2 220 4.60 39.0 7.00 127
    Cooper Kupp LAR 94 1,161 6-2 208 4.62 31.0 6.75 116
    Tyler Boyd CIN 90 1,046 6-2 203 4.58 34.0 6.90 119
    Robert Woods LAR 90 1,134 6-0 195 4.51 33.5 7.15 117
    D.J. Moore CAR 87 1,175 5-11 215 4.42 39.5 6.95 132
    Chris Godwin TAM 86 1,333 6-1 209 4.42 36.0 7.01 126
    Davante Adams GNB 83 997 6-1 215 4.56 39.5 6.82 123
    Jarvis Landry CLE 83 1,174 5-11 196 4.58 28.5 7.55 110
    Tyler Lockett SEA 82 1,057 5-10 182 4.40 35.5 6.89 121
    Amari Cooper DAL 79 1,189 6-1 210 4.42 33.0 6.71 120
    Jamison Crowder NYJ 78 833 5-9 177 4.56 37.0 7.17 115
    Average       6-0 1/2 205.2 4.52 35.5 6.93 121.7
    Median       6 - 1 209.5 4.56 36.0 6.90 121.0

    Can we make this mandatory reading for anyone before posting in the draft forum? Wide receiver 40 times are fun but so overrated. I hope certain guys run poorly and increase the chance of the Jets getting a good day 2 value. All about age adjusted market share and weight.

  4. 7 minutes ago, ElBarrioJets said:

    Why exactly aren't we talking about a tag and trade for Robby? The tag would be $18.5m. If the market is really going to go up to $15-16m, why not roll the dice on trading him? 

    Had the exact same thought. I have a feeling his market isn't going to get into that range but if it is, not a ton of risk. But if teams were going to trade like a 4th round pick for him at t he last deadline I don't know if they'll give too much if they're going to have to pay him afterwards.

    That said, I still kind of would like to see the Jets try to play the comp pick game and not go nuts signing guys to long term deals that the team will regret. If franchising him means less money devoted to mid-level FA's, more continuity for Darnold, and a year to see what the Jets get out of the draft at WR plus a possible comp pick if he leaves as a UFA...I don't know.

    All of that said I think he ends up more in the $12-$13M range. Still too much for my taste. Wonder where he does land.

  5. Don’t remember the exact stat but the Jets have been up there for OL spending and don’t have a lot to show for it. The FA OL track record isn’t awesome. This is also a really strong OL draft class. Good to leave room to draft guys.

    Vaitai, Lewis, and Glasgow would be a solid middle of the road haul. Go into the draft with those three, Harrison, and Edoga. Room to draft guys and create competition.

    You could theoretically do Conklin-Glasgow-Vaitai if it’s an option to kick Vaitai to guard in the case that they go LT - which I’d hope they do because I’m not sure I love the idea of Vaitai at LT. But it does still restrict the ability to put a young tackle only guy at RT if you don’t want to start him on the left side from day one.

  6. 45 minutes ago, MindOverMatter said:

    You think so? I get the feeling that for a guy with so much speed, Reagor struggled with getting open alot. He made a bunch of amazing acrobatic catches, but if he was better at seperating and route running those become less frequent because he would be getting open more. 

    I only watched some tape, but those were my concerns. Definitely a talented kid though, could turn into a Laverneus Coles type.

    I thought he got open plenty. Quarterback play at TCU was pretty bad. Ruggs has enough red flags for me that, while he’d be fun to daydream about, I’m not remotely comfortable spending eleven on him. Reagor has some risk too but with significantly less draft capital investment. 

    • Upvote 1

  7. Ruggs’ speed is appealing but man sometimes it seems like teams that don’t have an established offense just try to throw a fast guy on the field and let things happen and it doesn’t work. The straight speed guys generally don’t work out anyway, at least not at the rate that they’re worth drafting in R1. Need that production to back it up. Though the weighted production for Bama guys is tricky this year since there we’re lot of mouths to feed there.

    Shenault is a similar one. Didn’t Gase once describe Demaryius Thomas as like his ideal outside receiver? Board is not a fan but between some similarities to Shenault and Thomas in terms of being physical freaks who are raw but productive downfield and after the catch and the fact that he’s an analytics darling as well - I could very much see him being a target.

    • Upvote 1

  8. Also regarding Adams - I think that decision is really nuanced. Is he going to sign for highest paid safety money or does he need highest paid on the team money? In either case when someone else inevitably goes above whatever the threshold is, is he going to play the contract out or pout and demand a new one?

    I don’t totally buy into the devaluing the position argument. The defense last year was not great but fine with essentially a bunch of late round UDFA types and Adams. Adams made some huge, game changing plays too. I think he kind of elevates level of play of the defense and that’s what you look for. And a lot of sustained great defenses have had really strong safety play over an extended period.

    To me the big thing is if he’s going to be a headache or not. And it kind of seems like it but it’s hard to know how much of that is his personality versus immaturity. I think on the field he’s worth it though. Leave the defense alone for a bit and focus on the offense after that.

  9. Man this OL class has some size beyond Becton. Wills and Thomas came in a little lighter than listed but still big - Wirfs right on the nose at 320.

    Beyond those guys in that next tier - Jones, Jackson, Peart, Charles all came in around 320 which was bigger than they were listed. Jones and Jackson were listed at 310, Peart 303, Charles sub 300. The centers Harris and Hennessy both were listed sub 300 and measured in above 300 too.

    Think this group puts on a show. Douglas can really do a lot if he just takes guys at the strong positions.

    • Upvote 4

  10. Yeah I’m pumped for the combine. I kind of liked Brown on tape, thought he was a measurements faller. Think it seems like the league is overthinking Thomas but been wrong before. Also think this is a strong class. Three QB’s before eleven, Young, Okudah, Brown, Simmons, Jeudy and Lamb are live - OL need to fall in somewhere but I think someone falls and Thomas kind of seems like the guy. Maybe not.

  11. 8 minutes ago, RobR said:

    For me it is 100% on how he does in the agility drills. If he nails it, I could see him as a top 5 pick and the number one OT off the board but if he struggles he'll probably be the 4th or 5th OT picked. Personally I think he's going to have a great combine. 

    Yeah I think he’s going to have a great combine as well. Agility drills are definitely huge for the OL. I don’t think he’s in play at eleven in most scenarios (he either moves way too well at that size and he’s gone or he’s Orlando Brown Jr and I don’t think he slips to the third but he’s realistic at eleven - especially for a zone heavy team). Maybe there’s something in the middle.

    Curious where he lands if he blows up as the early Gettleman rumors are for Wirfs and 5/6/7 are all possible QB teams. Maybe he falls to ten? Hard to get a feel for this OL class.

    I think the Jets end up coming away with Thomas at eleven or maybe even after a move down. Fun draft year.

    • Like 1

  12. On 2/24/2020 at 3:37 PM, RobR said:

    I've been saying since the beginning that he's not a WR at the next level. Good for him that he's putting on more weight and transitioning to a position that he's better suited at.

    Wholeheartedly agree. Never looked like a WR to me. Good for him. Worked for Waller.

  13. 1 hour ago, Samtorobby47 said:

    What if we traded our 2 and one of the 3s to move up for whichever WR?

    Is that pointless, I guess you could sit there and take whoever falls to 48?

    Depends so much how the board is falling and how they feel about certain guys. If there’s somebody who would’ve been in the mix at eleven then yeah maybe. Not sure who that would be.

    I think 48 and 79 gets you between 30 and 31 and 48 and 68 gets you in the 27/28 range. I do think the teams in that region (27, 28, 30, 31 are Seattle, Baltimore, Green Bay, and SF) are historically amenable to moving down. There’s probably a cheaper way to get into early day two also.

    I’m just not honestly sure who you go and get among the tier 2 guys besides Mims. Higgins maybe. Somebody really solid is going to fall to 48.

  14. 26 minutes ago, Paradis said:

    It's only an issue if they're raw - so to speak. Mims and Pittman (IMO) are bolt on prospects who come ready to play. I'm fine with them not being 20/21 years old when they can hit the ground running out of the box

    I'm thrilled with either day 2 or even Mims late R1 after a trade down. Was speculating as to why guys like those or McLaurin fall to the second day.

    Mims probably checks more analytics boxes (including breakout age) than any other WR in this class and appears to have awesome physical tools. I'd be beyond thrilled with him at 48. Have a feeling he's a "riser" even in this elite class. Age and raw production are the only nitpicks and both are overrated. Think he's a day 1 producer with long-term starter upside.

    • Like 1

  15. 1 hour ago, sec101row23 said:

    Mims is only 22.  

    Mims, Pittman, and Hill look like the only consensus day 1/2 guys who will turn 23 this season. McLaurin turned 24 last season. Not saying he’s ancient, but teams for sure look at age especially at WR where age adjusted performance is one of the better indicators of success.

  16. 1 hour ago, RobR said:

    I didn't even look at that, just watched some tape. What are his red flags?

    Suspended for like 8 games last year. Sounds like LSU people think he got pooped for weed too many times. Hopefully not a big deal if he passes at the combine but he’ll have to answer those questions.

    • Like 2

  17. 51 minutes ago, Philc1 said:

    Larry Allen was arguably the greatest OL who ever lived he played at around 350 his entire career

    Larry Allen was also a guard not a tackle.

    And Becton could be excellent. I think guys who are different tend to get discounted because NFL decision makers would rather be wrong sticking with typical trends than wrong doing something unusual. Very risk averse sport in that way. But it's very possible I'm wrong and Becton just goes early.

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