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Posts posted by derp

  1. 34 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

    I'm generally optimistic, probably overly optimistic most times.  What will be interesting to me is if we go 6-11 but are competitive week in and week out will people remain positive?  We have been losing for so long, and recently been even worse than "normal bad" so it's hard to stay positive when all we may get are signs of progress this year.

    I think it depends what 6-11 looks like - and the competitive week in and week out is part of it and frankly a big step up. Just the trajectory of the season too - are the young guys playing and getting better? Do the systems seem to be falling into place?

    Last year was hard partially because of the losing and being non-competitive but layer on top of that guys like Darnold and Herndon regressing, three years and a cloud of dust with Gore, most of the rookie class being banged up. There was almost no good to latch on to - Becton and Williams were about it - and a whole lot of bad. Then the light at the end of the tunnel was Lawrence and they didn’t make that happen either.

    If they’re 6-11, play hard all year, young guys play key roles and improve, Wilson looks like he might be the answer, run game starts clicking, and the team plays well in the trenches on both sides...I’ll be optimistic for a jump to competing for a playoff spot in 2022 and finally some stability on the coaching staff and that’s kind of all I want out of this season.

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  2. 12 hours ago, Zachtomims47 said:

    Love it. But was he saying that responding to a question about Wilson? Seems kinda obvious. 

    The conversation had moved to talking about AVT and Moore at that point and I think he was speaking to more of a philosophy anyway.

    Expanded on it by saying that you take lumps early but those guys also have more room to grow and you see more accelerated team improvement that way.

    Saleh is awesome. The way he talked about going on the grass and how he just steps into this different world was so cool. There’s a happiness and a gratitude he exudes that I would guess comes from working outside of football for a bit and then coming back to it...makes him so fun to listen to.

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  3. Edge is going to be on the list of possibilities early even if the team has two good ones, let alone the potential one good one with Lawson. I think it’s straightforward to argue it’s the second most important position in the sport, this defensive scheme is built around getting pressure with the front four, and Douglas clearly believes in building in the trenches. This edge class is shaping up to potentially be a good one, too. Barring a major breakout from Zuniga, Hall, or Rashed it’s going to be on the list of needs next year and with four picks in the first two rounds there’s a great chance it gets addressed early.

    I absolutely get wanting to continue to build the offense but the needs on offense are quickly not becoming top of the first round positions. It’s the right three spots on the line and tight end. Barring a unicorn at guard or tight end or the desire to spend a high pick on a right tackle, those aren’t top of the first round positions. Wide receiver could absolutely be addressed but they’ve got enough talent in that room that guys could emerge for a system that’s in two or three wide almost all the time and in one wide more than four wide. Davis, Mims, and Moore will all be signed for multiple years after the upcoming season.

    This looks like a potentially good class to grab a center who fits the system. We’ll see what they decide to do with Fant after this year for right tackle, and also if Clark emerges as a capable right guard which would further reduce the need to address the OL.

    Tight end will be a huge need unless someone emerges. Hopefully that class is good. This past class wasn’t great beyond Pitts. Given most of the best tight ends in the league have gone on day two and three I wouldn’t be upset if they take one day two and one day three and just hope someone emerges. Probably a better strategy than using a first rounder. Important position for the scheme though.

    No need to go crazy on offense next year. Edge with a first rounder and TE/OL with two of the other three picks in the first two rounds and I’m a happy camper.

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  4. It’s a funny mix of risky and conservative.

    First round guards have a low bust rate, but excluding the 2013 top ten guards in that awful draft class, guards taken as high as the middle of the first are usually Pro Bowl level players. Lot of pressure to warrant that pick.

    My guess is that if Douglas viewed the worst case to be an improved OL to protect the rookie QB and best case to be adding a Pro Bowl guard, it’s a good risk/reward specific to the Jets.

    There’s a shot to do something like what Dallas did several years ago and just build an insane OL that carries the team for a bit with a rookie QB - only if Saleh makes it happen on the other side of the ball there’s a defense too.

    Hope he ends up being a Pro Bowler. Would be a lot of fun.

  5. 16 minutes ago, derp said:

    This is a bit of a stretch, IMO. You can’t cobble together a list of the guys who have played safety and could play safety and then say “look at all the guys who play safety!”

    Sherwood and Nasirildeen are going to play linebacker. So is White.

    Joyner is starting opposite Maye and on a one year deal. It looks like if Carter is playing safety it’ll be in the Joyner role, otherwise he’ll be a nickel corner. Not coming for Maye’s job.

    Peters, if he makes the team, maybe overlaps. But that basically leaves him.

    The guy who I think is most likely to make the Jets decide they don’t need Maye is missing from the article - Ashtyn Davis.

    All of this said - I don’t think they’re extending Maye this offseason unless he accepts a very reasonable extension. Saleh hasn’t seen him in his scheme, he can get franchised again next year at a price below what he’s asking for if he plays well, they obviously liked Davis coming out and he’d be cheaper the next two years, and Maye was pretty consistently dinged up his first few years in the league.

    None of that means they won’t re-sign him at all, but I think he needs a healthy, productive season in the scheme and they need to not like Davis as a replacement after this year to warrant a big money extension for a safety. Not like they’ll lose him after this year if they don’t extend him now. His leadership and off field contributions are certainly a factor there as well.

    We also don’t know how Douglas views extending internal guys. No free agent has been re-signed for more than three years and most of this year’s FA’s were younger than Maye. I can’t imagine he’s getting five years and negotiations at three may not be at all appealing for them. I’m sure it pushes up the APY on Maye’s end behind what Douglas wants.

    Point being there are reasons for them not to re-sign Maye now beyond they drafted safeties to play linebacker.

  6. 3 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

    Very cool to hear Herndon reach out.  Herndon completely disappeared under adam gase.  Im starting to think saleh is going to bring this kid back to life.

    I am predicting a big year for herndon.

    Big year for Herndon would be huge for this offense IMO. Really hope he can get back on track.

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  7. 8 minutes ago, Lith said:

    Agreed.  How awesome would it be to rebuld the secondary almost exclusively on day 3 picks & UDFA.  Hall, Austin, Jackson, Guidry, Carter, Echols and Sherwood.  Still hoping to see a vet added to the CB room before camp, but there is a lot of potential there.

    Would be crazy. Even in a very good but realistic case they’ll probably need to add a vet or a higher draft pick here or there, but how often have we seen backups just step in as starters and not miss a beat?

    It’s pretty much only when the starters are terrible or back in the Rex days when the backups at non-premium positions playing behind the first rounders and high priced FA’s were adequate. But I rarely if ever remember the franchise letting guys walk and replacing in house.

    I also love the use of tweeners in the back seven in a way that fits with a passing oriented league but doesn’t require spending serious draft capital (Darron Lee pick for Bowles). And actually getting pressure with the front four would be really cool. It all conceptually makes sense.

    Hopefully Saleh’s a nice mix of creative and not too cute. Kind of seems that way. And feels much more sustainable.

    Also - man this defense is going to look so much faster.

  8. 12 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

    In a vacuum the analytics guys are correct. Over time the move the Jets made will net less talent for the Jets than staying pat.

    But this assumes that all evaluations are the same (and in this case also match the PFF grade) and are not affected by skill of the GM and his staff. 

    If we allow that Douglas evaluation of AVTs prospects in the NFL is more accurate and has a higher upside than the median value, the trade can even be lopsided in favor of the Jets. Several analysts say that he will be Martin/Nelson level. If that is true it is a fantastic trade.

    Also though the analysis looks at picks sort of as pass/fail. Well AVT likely has a floor of above average guard so again that is in the Jets favor.

    It's sort of like saying Negranu would be the same poker player online and in person, which is clearly not true because in person he can pick up on all the tells and body language of the players around him

    It’s a sample size issue. In the long run you’re better off trading down or not trading up but there are certainly situations that trading down would be the better option.

    I do think Douglas will be trading down more than he trades up, too.

  9. 1 hour ago, Doggin94it said:

    Let's play an alternate reality game where we stay at 23, take an OL there (for simplicity's sake so we don't re-scramble their entire draft), and then grab the best guys on the board at 66 and 86. Teven Jenkins, Christian Darrisaw, whoever.  Who's there at those later picks who they take? (Again, no RB, leave Carter at 4)

    At 66, where do they go? Double dip OL with Mayfield or Green? CB with Robinson or St. Juste? Edge with Koonce? Let's say Tommy Tremble at 66 and then what, Davis, Greene, or Meinerz at 86? 

    That's definitely a nice set of picks but it's not easy to say you'd prefer it to a certain very good LG to protect your new QB, which is pretty much AVT's floor

    Yeah I think where the analytics stuff kind of falls apart is not taking into account that teams that have a while in between picks might have taken someone way earlier. Is the new pick happening at #23 or might they have taken Moore at #23 and it’s actually someone else at #34. Same with #86, #107, and Carter.

    I’m sure they *could* have done something I would’ve preferred without reading up but I’m less confident I actually would have preferred what they did without trading up.

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  10. Interesting thread on Twitter with some insightful graphical displays that point to why folks some folks chase outsized returns on things like crypto.

    By no means am I suggesting that one needs to come to the same conclusion as the author regarding the solution - I like crypto and think he goes too far with his statement at the end. But I think the graphs of how the monetary supply, equities, land, other investment, and wages have all interacted over time offered me a little insight into why I’ve felt certain ways about investing and money.

    I’m sure others understand better and have done it better but I enjoyed the condensed look and the graphs. Have to click into it to read the whole thing.


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