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derp

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Posts posted by derp


  1. 1 hour ago, HawkeyeJet said:

    I can't recall which Adams thread I posted this on, but this seems to be the most active current one so adding this here.

    I mentioned a week or so ago that the 4-2-5/3-3-5 with the hybrid Safety/Linebacker has become huge in college football to counter modern offense(Air raid more specifically) but hadn't gained as much acceptance in the NFL yet.  I also said that it would eventually and whoever goes all in on a scheme like that may very well value players like Adams a ton.  Well my assertion about the likelihood of that defense coming to the NFL seems to be coming true, per below.  Does that mean the Browns would be interested in Adams?  I don't know.  But if I were Greg Williams and the defensive roster is the same at training camp as it is today, I'd give a long hard look at this as my base defense.

     

    I think some form of variation of the 4-2-5 makes a lot of sense as a base defense and have appreciated your posts on the topic.

    That said, its mind boggling how many off ball LB’s the Jets have. Doesn’t seem super indicative of going in that direction yet.

    • Upvote 1

  2. 1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

    "premium position FA's" 

    lulz

    Spending big in FA is not the way to build a team. You fill gaps with 2nd and 3rd tier guys. You want to hold on to the top tier guys you draft while they're in their prime. That's what Adams is. You lock him up for his 2nd contract. If we start drafting too many top tier guys then we should start worrying about positional value. Until then, just lock up the top tier guys we have.

     

    I think that’s the issue with him asking for this extension after three years. The Jets have three, frankly four years of control over him at figures well below the $17M being discussed in your back and forth. The benefit to the team of the extension is the additional years of control and there’s little to no amount of additional years of having him under contract in a four or five year extension scenario. It really doesn’t make financial sense, especially when you’re considering how much more he’s going to be making in the first few years than he would have.

    The issue is that he’s upset he’s underpaid but he also wants to sign a huge deal as the top safety. Douglas can make a responsible decision to pay him more in the short term in exchange for additional control - but a reasonable deal that gets him a raise and makes sense for the team financially won’t hit the figures he’s looking for. And the huge deal is so far above and beyond what he’s making, plus they control him for for long enough  - so there’s really no way to make that work this offseason. Thus why extending next year is probably what they’re targeting at the numbers he’s looking for.

    My guess is Adams is coming to the table with no leverage, being told he has no leverage and has to not sign a top safety in the league deal or wait a year, and then throwing a hissy fit because there’s nothing else he can do - even though extensions are this stage are rare.


  3. 57 minutes ago, AFJF said:

    It’s been ugly, but 4-45?  That’s tough to beat.

    I mean 3-32 is, while not exactly 4-45, basically right there to the point of being basically identical. It's 8.9% vs. 9.4% - the closest you could get to the 4-45 pace with 32 picks.

    Further - the four players re-signed were good Jets and were in the NFL 10+ years. Enunwa's career is over and Winters may not be a Jet by the time football is being played again. Jenkins is the only one who seems to even be on pace to have a career as good as the four in the OP.

    And the Jets got a huge haul back for Keyshawn that ended up being a huge part of setting the team up for early-mid 2000's success. Leonard WIlliams and Darron Lee were traded but both for pennies on the dollar because they didn't live up to their draft position.

     

    And my point was not even that 3-32 was worse - though I kind of think it was. But the team has horrible draft history within the last few years - why go back to the horrible drafting of 1995-1999? The recent examples are comparably awful and much more relevant to the current state of the franchise.

    • Upvote 2

  4. From 2013-2016 (first two years of Maccagnan which are the only ones you can really evaluate to this point and the two Idzik years) the Jets drafted 32 players.

    Only three are still with the Jets. Of those three - one is on a one year deal, one is likely done playing due to a neck injury, and one is a potential cap casualty. Those are the only three to earn second contracts.

    Only fourteen of the 32 are still in or close to the NFL in any capacity - counting guys like Charone Peake who was recently signed to a reserve/futures deal and then waived shortly after. Six of the fourteen are 2016 draft picks.

    Two first round picks (Pryor, Milliner), two second round picks (Hackenberg, Amaro), and two third round picks (Mauldin, McDougle) are among the 18 out of the league.

    Of the nine players drafted in 2017 only two (Adams, Maye) are still with the Jets and four are out of the league. So good chance this doesn’t improve much one more draft in.


  5. 6 minutes ago, win4ever said:

     


    I would take him regardless of Perriman to be honest. I think running Terry, Mims, Perriman (assuming latter two perform well this year) would be just fine because teams may not have three corners that can match those guys in size/speed.

    In his second year with Peyton, they were running DT, Sanders, Decker, Welker, Latimer. I think it was all about creating 1 on 1 matchups, and having either a size or speed advantage.

     

    I mean I'd take him regardless too but I wouldn't expect it. I think in terms of likelihood of having a given number of receivers on the field for the Jets - 3>2>4>5>1. Think they're trying to build an outside group distinct from a slot group. If Mims or Perriman gets used as a big slot this year and does well I'd change my perspective from a likelihood standpoint.

    Would gladly be wrong about them taking Terry if Perriman's back - and I'd rather have Terry than Perriman. I just don't know if they keep investing outside if Perriman gets signed longer term after this season. I can't see them going empty a whole lot and in addition to Gase being a big TE guy I think Darnold loves throwing to the tight end too so I can't really argue with making sure those guys are on the field.

    On that note - this TE class projects to be good, Herndon hasn't proven he can stay on the field - and even if he has they run 12 enough that I think it's a sleeper position to get addressed this draft.


  6. 17 hours ago, RobR said:

    Would love to have a Jaylen Waddle on the Jets next year. Not the biggest guy but easily the most electrifying with the ball in his hands. 

    Same general idea I said more but I'd love Waddle too. I am almost undoubtedly wrong but in my opinion the Jets want to run a lot of 11 and 12 personnel and have the slot be the focal point of the offense. Crowder is steady in that role, but I suspect they'd like a more explosive player to be the centerpiece of the offense and to run that guy out of the slot. Spread the field vertically with big, fast outside receivers and from the slot as well but also find creative guys to get your slot the ball. Seam stretcher at tight end too, pass to set up the run, and you're set.

    Less investment in the outside guys and more volatility out there because of it, but if they're capable deep threats then they open things up underneath for a lot of guys and create big plays when defenses don't pay enough attention. Win-win.

    11 hours ago, win4ever said:

    My favorite guy from next year is Tamorrion Terry.


    Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

    I think Terry is underrated as well. Would be really happy with him if Perriman goes and they continue to build the outside group.


  7. The Jets have Adams under control for a reasonable salary over the next two years. They can also franchise him after that - the franchise tag for safeties was $11.5M this past year. Say it grows to $12.5M two tags from now. Cap hits if he gets franchised aggregate out to roughly $30M over three years. That includes $3.5M in prorated bonus so let’s call their current control three years, $27M.

    I think can extend that further out, too - if the new CBA tag rules changed then I’m wrong here and I apologize. But I believe the second franchise tag gets a 20% raise. A third would be the greater of a 44% raise or the quarterback tag - obviously the quarterback tag. If we hit the $12.5M with 20% we get to $15M, and the quarterback tag was $27M - let’s say it’s $35M by then. I think this is all conservative, who knows what happens with salaries.

    So the Jets can hang on to Adams - if he plays nicely (which he won’t) for 2/$14M, 3/$27M, 4/$42M, or 5/$77M - continue tagging if they want. That’s obviously not what I think will or should happen, but they’re important benchmarks when you look at the negotiations from Douglas’ standpoint.

    I suspect there are two benchmarks for Adams. Eddie Jackson is currently the highest paid safety - four years, $58.4M ($14.6M annually). And CJ Mosley is the highest paid Jet - five years, $85M ($17M annually). Given Adams feels that he’s an elite player in the NFL and the best player on the Jets I imagine he wants to exceed both and that is where his current demands are. In a negotiation you certainly have to start north of where you want to end up anyway.

    I think Douglas is a very practical guy and Adams cares about the optics of the deal. He wants to be paid - probably as the highest paid Jet, certainly the highest paid safety. And I think the divide there is too big. I don’t see Douglas straying too far from what he can control Adams for already.

    This is a way easier negotiation when the Jets don’t have him under control for $3.5M the following year. The 2/$14M, 3/$27M, 4/$42M, or 5/$77M above becomes 1/$10M, 2/$23M, 3/$38M or 4/$73M. Highest paid safety money starts to make more financial sense for the team.

    An extension now doesn’t benefit the team other than shutting Adams up...until he feels he’s underpaid again. Which is the issue with guys who negotiate through the media, hold out, etc. Couple safeties get paid more and I imagine he’ll want a new deal again.

    Adams has so little leverage right now - particularly with the holding out rules. To me it’s better to sit quietly, play better next year, and earn an even bigger contract than you would’ve gotten next year when you have a way better negotiating position. I’m sure he’s not endearing himself to anyone. I get why he wants the deal now but I have no clue why any of this is surprising.

    • Upvote 3

  8. 28 minutes ago, AFJF said:

    My major issue with Gase last year regarding Bell was how infrequently he was used as a receiver.  It was clear that he was never going to get anything going behind that O-line.  With one of the NFL's best blocking backs in Bilal Powell on the roster, there was no reason not go put Powell in at HB with Bell in the slot or out wide where he's still good enough to create mismatches.

    Even when he had little to offer in his final season, Matt Forte was able to get open when given the opportunity and there's no reason to believe Bell wouldn't have been able to do the same.

    In his final season in Pittsburgh, Bellw as split out wide over 130 times IIRC.  Last season with the Jets it was in the 65-75 range.

    When you're 32nd in the NFL in offense and you have a guy with Bell's skill set, what's the harm in putting him in position to make a play and score some points?

     

    This argument makes a lot of sense to me - which is my major concern with the validity of the point. You and I are individuals behind keyboards. If we think splitting Bell out and using him more in the passing game was the most effective way to use him - wouldn’t most all opposing NFL coaches be aware of that? Maybe it is that simple. But I’m at least a little skeptical. If Bell’s not going to beat you in the running game - why not focus on him in the passing game?

    Essentially defending the offense the Jets put out last year was don’t let Robby Anderson beat you downfield and pay attention to Bell and Crowder short. Hopefully the addition of more playmakers helps (and continues).


  9. 17 minutes ago, C Mart said:

    Jets claimed him off waivers from Colts during 2018 season, his 2nd season. He was a 2017 3rd round pick of Colts. 

    So his rookie contract expires after this season.  

    He did have a nice under radar season getting better as it went along. IIRC he was a small school prospect and I think the Colts were hoping to slip him through waivers in ‘18 to throw onto their PS but Mccagnan claimed him. 

    Taken one pick after ArDarius Stewart. Jets also have Jordan Wills from that round and briefly had Davis Webb too. Decided not to trade up for Kamara and the big miss was passing on Chris Godwin.


  10. 15 minutes ago, Prez33 said:

    As with any player, there’s a limit to what you pay. If his demands are beyond what the top safety is making, then the negotiation changes. 
     

    Byard (14.1) Mathieu (14)and Collins (14) are the highest paid safeties in the league. I’m gonna say Jamal Adams is worth that much per season. But if he asks for a lot more than that, say, 16 million per season or more? I will be less adamant about keeping him if we can pull off a deal for fair compensation. 
     

     

    I think that’s a pretty reasonable take. Negotiations are hard. Right now the Jets can control him for what - three more seasons at a total of like $29-32M allowing for a $12M-$15M range for the 2022 safety franchise tag (2020 was like $11.5M). Maybe less on the tag if revenues cause the cap to drop?

    Say his fair market value is at highest paid safety, $15M - which is probably in between his asking price and what the Jets are offering. If the Jets offer him a four year, $60M extension right now there basically gaining a year of team control that they’re paying about $30M for. It just doesn’t really make sense. I’d guess they’re willing to go like four years, $50M which gives him two years of raises and still makes that fourth year of control expensive. And I’m positive he rejects that.

    It’d be easier after this season when there’s one year less of control and a four year, $60M extension essentially amounts to two years and $35-$38M of new money which is a little more palatable. But I’m not sure he even takes that and the damage is probably going to be done by then since he’s an emotional guy and not shy about speaking his mind.

    If there’s a season it’ll be interesting to see if he keeps his level of play and if he’s the leader of the defense or if it ends up being Mosley.

    • Like 1

  11. 20 hours ago, Prez33 said:

    I agree that you don’t trade All Pro, high impact players like Jamal Adams. He’s asking to be paid as one of the top safeties in the league. There’s nothing unreasonable about that. 
     

    I think he’s asking to at least be paid as the top safety in the league. Probably more because he feels he’s just an elite player regardless of position.


  12. 27 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

    No, he wanted it for the 11 TEAMS that took WR's before he went.  The Broncos selected 2 WR's (Jeudy at # 15, Hamler at # 46) prior to Mims going at 59.  

    That would be reasonable, whoever I saw speculating must have had it mixed up. He’ll look good in 11 if that’s the route he goes.


  13. I assume all teams are going to be testing guys like crazy to prevent something like this from happening - which could become controversial depending on what the overall landscape and availability at testing are like at that point. 

    Flip side here is that most players don’t have the co-morbidities that put them at risk of serious illness. These are young, elite athletes. And imagine team physicians know the guys who are at more risk and may do a little extra to protect the. So players could get sick and it may spread quickly - but other illnesses spread through teams so it’s not completely unique in that regard. Would be a very public eye opener if someone became seriously ill though.

    • Upvote 3

  14. Dramatically better than the roster heading into this past offseason IMO. Going to be a slow build.

    I don’t think Darnold will be on his rookie deal when the team is clicking which is a shame.


  15. Curious to see what kind of role they want Cager to play. I kind of prefer him as a big slot versus playing him as an outside guy. I think there's a niche for the outside guys he doesn't fit but that big slot role is one a lot of teams have excelled using and it fits nicely with Darnold.


  16. Crowder was last year’s #1 option, not Robby.

    Last year Anderson didn’t do a lot and Thomas didn’t either. The Jets need Perriman and Mims to combine to put up very minimal stats to match last outside receiver year’s production.

    If Perriman does what he did last year over the full season - which most fans feel were not impressive over the course of the full season - and Mims matches that, they’ll have met last year’s outside WR production with extra targets left over for Herndon returning.

    Plus Smith and Berrios are viable options to improve statistically, a UDFA could do well, etc.


  17. I think it’s possible that the Jets pursue JuJu but I don’t think the timelines quite add up. He’s played way better in the slot - the Claypool addition I think further shows that they want him there. He’s a free agent next year and Crowder is blocking him.

    I do think that the NFL is moving in a direction that you’re going to play on high volume through your slot and/or tight end. It’s easier to attack with guys who can work from the middle of the field and passing just earns more yards on a per play basis than running. The Jets do that with Crowder now - who is solid and did well getting peppered with targets.

    I also think the Jets are kind of attempting to build an offense that’s extra effective working the middle of the field by stretching the field vertically with the outside receivers. Focus too much on stopping our slot and tight end? Our outside guys can burn you deep for a big play.

    Two big questions and one small one moving forward.

    Small question - who’s the outside receiver after Perriman? Are the Jets able to find a long-term guy in Smith, Doctson, or a UDFA who fits the mold they want, is that addressed next offseason, or is Perriman a fit who gets extended?

    Is Herndon the guy at tight end? I know the Jets were really excited about him and he was rock solid as a rookie. That being said, he fell in the draft due to injury issues at Miami and had injury issues last season. If next year is more of the same...it’s early but the 2021 tight end draft class looks quite good.

    And as for the third receiver, what is the long term goal in the slot? Gase has Crowder now, had Landry in the last, but also has had those little jitterbug YAC guys who are explosive. Douglas has mentioned how he wants explosive players as well. My guess is that they want a really explosive but smaller player in the slot and to work the tight end(s) for volume. Darnold loves throwing to tight ends, attacking vertically from the slot is challenging to defend and would add another dimension to the speed creates pressure, pressure bursts pipes narrative.

    It’s possible to get a slot guy who’s going to be the long-term centerpiece of the offense. We’ll see what Waddle does at Alabama, I clearly like Rondale Moore. Get a guy who can make plays in space and stretch the field vertically, put him in the slot, create touches - and those touches are likely in space because you’re pressuring the other team down the field.

    Also want to touch on the narrative of WR’s I tend to see which is looking for #1’s, etc. First of all, I love the old Packers model from the early Rodgers days where you get a bunch of guys who can play and then spread the ball and continue to have a pipeline of dudes. Greg Jennings was the dude until Nelson was until Adams was...they lost it but it’s easier for the top guys there when the guys below them are capable of growing into that role. So I think the elite #1 is overrated and generally not cap effective either.

    Additionally, think the slot gets a #3 label too often. Crowder eats up targets for the Jets. He’s the #1 right now. Maybe not best suited there but he’s the top target in the passing game. The Jets are probably going to have an outside receiver who’s their #3 for the foreseeable future, IMO. And I think that’s fine, possibly ideal. Guy will get less volume but keep the field spread and create some big plays.

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