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derp

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Everything posted by derp

  1. The Jets have Adams under control for a reasonable salary over the next two years. They can also franchise him after that - the franchise tag for safeties was $11.5M this past year. Say it grows to $12.5M two tags from now. Cap hits if he gets franchised aggregate out to roughly $30M over three years. That includes $3.5M in prorated bonus so let’s call their current control three years, $27M. I think can extend that further out, too - if the new CBA tag rules changed then I’m wrong here and I apologize. But I believe the second franchise tag gets a 20% raise. A third would be the greater of a 44% raise or the quarterback tag - obviously the quarterback tag. If we hit the $12.5M with 20% we get to $15M, and the quarterback tag was $27M - let’s say it’s $35M by then. I think this is all conservative, who knows what happens with salaries. So the Jets can hang on to Adams - if he plays nicely (which he won’t) for 2/$14M, 3/$27M, 4/$42M, or 5/$77M - continue tagging if they want. That’s obviously not what I think will or should happen, but they’re important benchmarks when you look at the negotiations from Douglas’ standpoint. I suspect there are two benchmarks for Adams. Eddie Jackson is currently the highest paid safety - four years, $58.4M ($14.6M annually). And CJ Mosley is the highest paid Jet - five years, $85M ($17M annually). Given Adams feels that he’s an elite player in the NFL and the best player on the Jets I imagine he wants to exceed both and that is where his current demands are. In a negotiation you certainly have to start north of where you want to end up anyway. I think Douglas is a very practical guy and Adams cares about the optics of the deal. He wants to be paid - probably as the highest paid Jet, certainly the highest paid safety. And I think the divide there is too big. I don’t see Douglas straying too far from what he can control Adams for already. This is a way easier negotiation when the Jets don’t have him under control for $3.5M the following year. The 2/$14M, 3/$27M, 4/$42M, or 5/$77M above becomes 1/$10M, 2/$23M, 3/$38M or 4/$73M. Highest paid safety money starts to make more financial sense for the team. An extension now doesn’t benefit the team other than shutting Adams up...until he feels he’s underpaid again. Which is the issue with guys who negotiate through the media, hold out, etc. Couple safeties get paid more and I imagine he’ll want a new deal again. Adams has so little leverage right now - particularly with the holding out rules. To me it’s better to sit quietly, play better next year, and earn an even bigger contract than you would’ve gotten next year when you have a way better negotiating position. I’m sure he’s not endearing himself to anyone. I get why he wants the deal now but I have no clue why any of this is surprising.
  2. This argument makes a lot of sense to me - which is my major concern with the validity of the point. You and I are individuals behind keyboards. If we think splitting Bell out and using him more in the passing game was the most effective way to use him - wouldn’t most all opposing NFL coaches be aware of that? Maybe it is that simple. But I’m at least a little skeptical. If Bell’s not going to beat you in the running game - why not focus on him in the passing game? Essentially defending the offense the Jets put out last year was don’t let Robby Anderson beat you downfield and pay attention to Bell and Crowder short. Hopefully the addition of more playmakers helps (and continues).
  3. Taken one pick after ArDarius Stewart. Jets also have Jordan Wills from that round and briefly had Davis Webb too. Decided not to trade up for Kamara and the big miss was passing on Chris Godwin.
  4. I think that’s a pretty reasonable take. Negotiations are hard. Right now the Jets can control him for what - three more seasons at a total of like $29-32M allowing for a $12M-$15M range for the 2022 safety franchise tag (2020 was like $11.5M). Maybe less on the tag if revenues cause the cap to drop? Say his fair market value is at highest paid safety, $15M - which is probably in between his asking price and what the Jets are offering. If the Jets offer him a four year, $60M extension right now there basically gaining a year of team control that they’re paying about $30M for. It just doesn’t really make sense. I’d guess they’re willing to go like four years, $50M which gives him two years of raises and still makes that fourth year of control expensive. And I’m positive he rejects that. It’d be easier after this season when there’s one year less of control and a four year, $60M extension essentially amounts to two years and $35-$38M of new money which is a little more palatable. But I’m not sure he even takes that and the damage is probably going to be done by then since he’s an emotional guy and not shy about speaking his mind. If there’s a season it’ll be interesting to see if he keeps his level of play and if he’s the leader of the defense or if it ends up being Mosley.
  5. I think he’s asking to at least be paid as the top safety in the league. Probably more because he feels he’s just an elite player regardless of position.
  6. Jets paid decent money for Hilbers and I’d expect him to at least be on the PS. Other little things here and there but this was a fun read and thoughtful even where I didn’t think of things the same way.
  7. That would be reasonable, whoever I saw speculating must have had it mixed up. He’ll look good in 11 if that’s the route he goes.
  8. I assume all teams are going to be testing guys like crazy to prevent something like this from happening - which could become controversial depending on what the overall landscape and availability at testing are like at that point. Flip side here is that most players don’t have the co-morbidities that put them at risk of serious illness. These are young, elite athletes. And imagine team physicians know the guys who are at more risk and may do a little extra to protect the. So players could get sick and it may spread quickly - but other illnesses spread through teams so it’s not completely unique in that regard. Would be a very public eye opener if someone became seriously ill though.
  9. Saw the speculation is he wanted #11 for the eleven WR's taken ahead of him...which would make more sense if there wasn't also a twelfth WR taken ahead of him.
  10. derp

    2020 WR thread

    Took a step back to think about it this morning - can't believe the Jets traded down and got Mims. Wild.
  11. Dramatically better than the roster heading into this past offseason IMO. Going to be a slow build. I don’t think Darnold will be on his rookie deal when the team is clicking which is a shame.
  12. Curious to see what kind of role they want Cager to play. I kind of prefer him as a big slot versus playing him as an outside guy. I think there's a niche for the outside guys he doesn't fit but that big slot role is one a lot of teams have excelled using and it fits nicely with Darnold.
  13. Crowder was last year’s #1 option, not Robby. Last year Anderson didn’t do a lot and Thomas didn’t either. The Jets need Perriman and Mims to combine to put up very minimal stats to match last outside receiver year’s production. If Perriman does what he did last year over the full season - which most fans feel were not impressive over the course of the full season - and Mims matches that, they’ll have met last year’s outside WR production with extra targets left over for Herndon returning. Plus Smith and Berrios are viable options to improve statistically, a UDFA could do well, etc.
  14. I think it’s possible that the Jets pursue JuJu but I don’t think the timelines quite add up. He’s played way better in the slot - the Claypool addition I think further shows that they want him there. He’s a free agent next year and Crowder is blocking him. I do think that the NFL is moving in a direction that you’re going to play on high volume through your slot and/or tight end. It’s easier to attack with guys who can work from the middle of the field and passing just earns more yards on a per play basis than running. The Jets do that with Crowder now - who is solid and did well getting peppered with targets. I also think the Jets are kind of attempting to build an offense that’s extra effective working the middle of the field by stretching the field vertically with the outside receivers. Focus too much on stopping our slot and tight end? Our outside guys can burn you deep for a big play. Two big questions and one small one moving forward. Small question - who’s the outside receiver after Perriman? Are the Jets able to find a long-term guy in Smith, Doctson, or a UDFA who fits the mold they want, is that addressed next offseason, or is Perriman a fit who gets extended? Is Herndon the guy at tight end? I know the Jets were really excited about him and he was rock solid as a rookie. That being said, he fell in the draft due to injury issues at Miami and had injury issues last season. If next year is more of the same...it’s early but the 2021 tight end draft class looks quite good. And as for the third receiver, what is the long term goal in the slot? Gase has Crowder now, had Landry in the last, but also has had those little jitterbug YAC guys who are explosive. Douglas has mentioned how he wants explosive players as well. My guess is that they want a really explosive but smaller player in the slot and to work the tight end(s) for volume. Darnold loves throwing to tight ends, attacking vertically from the slot is challenging to defend and would add another dimension to the speed creates pressure, pressure bursts pipes narrative. It’s possible to get a slot guy who’s going to be the long-term centerpiece of the offense. We’ll see what Waddle does at Alabama, I clearly like Rondale Moore. Get a guy who can make plays in space and stretch the field vertically, put him in the slot, create touches - and those touches are likely in space because you’re pressuring the other team down the field. Also want to touch on the narrative of WR’s I tend to see which is looking for #1’s, etc. First of all, I love the old Packers model from the early Rodgers days where you get a bunch of guys who can play and then spread the ball and continue to have a pipeline of dudes. Greg Jennings was the dude until Nelson was until Adams was...they lost it but it’s easier for the top guys there when the guys below them are capable of growing into that role. So I think the elite #1 is overrated and generally not cap effective either. Additionally, think the slot gets a #3 label too often. Crowder eats up targets for the Jets. He’s the #1 right now. Maybe not best suited there but he’s the top target in the passing game. The Jets are probably going to have an outside receiver who’s their #3 for the foreseeable future, IMO. And I think that’s fine, possibly ideal. Guy will get less volume but keep the field spread and create some big plays.
  15. It’s not, though. It’s close to being close to the truth. Linebackers don’t run like running backs. And you’re right, he’s shifty - which is a component of making a player challenging to cover. Particularly for linebackers who don’t often have to cover players who have a degree of fluidity and comfort catching the football. I agree, Bell is slow and not long for this team. He’s also likely going to be part of the team for this year. How would you use him?
  16. You’re right, he’s clearly slower than every single linebacker in the NFL and it’ll be impossible for an NFL coach to ever create a mismatch with presnap motion. I’m not a Bell fan, he’s going to be gone after the season, and he is slow. But he’s a talented pass catcher for a back and was better in space than he was trudging into the line, and if they’re able to motion him out and get players who aren’t effective in coverage on him he’ll at least be able to add some value for his last season as a Jet. And then when he’s gone the Jets will have a faster, cheaper, and more effective backfield.
  17. It’s interesting how differently the statistics are presented here than in the Mehta hit piece on Gase about essentially the same subject. I do get Bell wanting touches but IMO the most effective way to use him is finding mismatches in the passing game. Will be good to spread out the run game touches. And next season, add a more explosive back, leave Perine as a complement, and continue to share touches.
  18. It is kind of funny how very clearly distinct the Jets' inside and outside guys are on both sides of the football. All big, tall, rangy outside on both sides. Perriman, Mims, and Smith on offense...Desir, Hairston, Austin, Wilson, Hall, Brown. Makes the inside guys (Poole, Crowder, Berrios, and potentially Guidry) really stand out. I think Guidry has a clearer path than say Lamar Jackson to make the roster because of that. Maulet is smaller too. I imagine he and Guidry are competing for one spot. Maybe four outside spots...Desir, Austin, and Hall seem like locks unless Hall is an IR stash. I'm not sure more than one or maybe two of Hairston, Wilson, Brown, and Jackson are on the roster. Also think Carter is in play for that fourth safety spot - especially since it seems like he'll set himself apart in meeting rooms and is a sharp enough dude to be really valuable on scout teams. I suppose any of those bigger corners showing they could move to safety could earn them a spot. Injuries also will obviously play a role. And they paid Hilbers decent money too.
  19. Would be big time to have Guidry set up to take over in the slot the year after next. That roster already looks deeper than the prior year and anything like this will be gravy. It's going to be weird heading into an offseason not needing essentially everything but a quarterback, a tight end, a slot receiver, defensive linemen, or inside linebackers.
  20. Zuniga will be on the team. Huff is competing with guys like Basham, Luvu, and Willis for his roster spot. Think two, maybe three of those four make it.
  21. Running backs went way earlier than I thought this year. For those disappointed by Perine's athleticism - he was a slightly above average athlete from a SPARQ standpoint, percentile was 51.3. The two guys directly above him were Cam Akers at 54.1 and D'Andre Swift at 59.8. Differences are pretty minimal and I don't think anyone would've been complaining about their athleticism if the Jets drafted them earlier than they drafted Perine. Perine was also better as a committee back which I think fits into what Gase wants to do. Like JiF saying he can do a little of everything because that seems accurate. And Perine plays specials. He'll likely contribute in multiple ways over the next several years as a #2 back. Nothing exciting but really solid pick IMO. I don't think it's readily apparent right now but pick like Perine and Davis are ones where Douglas is going to really separate himself as a GM and build a roster. There's nothing exciting about them at the time but four years at a reasonable salary of guys who are going to contribute in multiple ways is important.
  22. Maye gets banged up and his contract expires after this season. Who knows what happens with Adams. Safety depth was a short term need and a starting safety is potentially a mid-long term need as well. Davis is going to get snaps in sub packages, projects to start if either guy ahead of him gets hurt, will be a core special teamer, and is set up to step in as a starter next year with a year playing in the system. Plus he walked on at Cal, dude worked for what he accomplished, and is a track athlete. Think about franchises like the Ravens where Douglas spent most of his time. The Jets periodically sign Ravens linebackers and the Ravens always get a comp pick for it have but instead of drafting one in the first or second to replace him they have another guy just step in on his rookie deal...who the Jets will eventually sign and the Ravens get another comp pick. You don’t always get immediate starters in rounds 3-5. Goal there is to build depth with guys who can fill short term roles and project to start long-term. Think we’re going to see a lot of this kind of stuff from Douglas who clearly doesn’t want to build the team in FA. The projected roster heading into next offseason already looks dramatically different than last year.
  23. Could you imagine if Maccagnan was the GM this year? I’d wondered if Epenesa was high enough on the board to be the guy at 48 but they knew it made absolutely no sense and were happy to move down for a reasonable offer. “Mike, why another defensive lineman with the 48th pick? Did you consider another position or perhaps trading down?” ”Well a Rich, we did have some conversations with other teams that were interested in moving up. But we had the Iowa kid really high up on our board....there were scenarios we would have considered him in the first round actually. And so when you value a player that highly...no one came to the table with enough of an offer for us to give up the opportunity to draft someone of that caliber, and so we’re really happy with the player we got there.”

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