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derp

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Everything posted by derp

  1. I'm actually (mostly) not thinking Maccagnan guys - and those I am are ones Douglas has already brought back. Figure Griffin was a Maccagnan guy and got extended. I think the ones who are gone are certainly gone for a reason. Those he re-signed are a different story. Vyncint Smith and Perriman at WR, Jenkins, Basham, and Luvu at edge, and then Desir, Maulet, and Poole at corner. Obviously any of the higher priced guys (Perriman, Jenkins, Desir, Poole) are going to be a little tougher to figure out. But it'd be interesting if they've seen enough in a Smith, Basham, or Maulet to want to keep them around a little longer for depth purposes on a reasonable contract.
  2. Oh I totally agree it's a weird format for that scenario. And it's also very possible that they don't re-open to those guys as well. I do think that there's a degree of purpose to the format, though. If Smith is the best player in the draft and you give every team a pick using the oder, the Bengals take him whether they would've given up first, second, or seventh rounder in the next year's draft. Better for him to go to a team that's really invested in him IMO. And while it'd mean less draft picks next year, that probably evens out a little when you consider that you're going to have a draft class in 2021 that's lighter on seniors than it otherwise would've been. I also think teams tend to be conservative using compensatory picks because they don't know where they'll be drafting the following year. I think only teams pretty confident they'd be in the playoffs would consider using a one on this particular group. This is definitely all hypothetical at this point too.
  3. I think I was unclear there. The first sentence was just to indicate that guys who aren't three years out can't enter - not that everyone who didn't enter the NFL draft could enter the supplemental draft. So no Trevor Lawrence, Ja'Marr Chase, Gregory Rouseeau, Penei Sewell. It's only guys who are already three years out. Last sentence where I said they'd have to rule that the pandemic is a change in eligibility for those guys to even enter agrees with what I think you're saying. You can't just enter the draft and then wait till the supplemental. Historically it's only guys who get suspended or kicked off the team or become academically ineligible or something. Change in eligibility from the draft deadline. But if they decide that the pandemic constitutes a change in eligibility, then that would potentially open the floodgates.
  4. Yeah the eligible players are basically those who could've entered the draft but didn't. So the returned to school lists are a good place to look. Travis Etienne would be a big name if he entered, as would Chuba Hubbard at RB. Devonta Smith at WR and Tamorrion Terry is another I like a lot. Pat Freiermuth at tight end. Carlos Basham at edge. Liam Eichenberg at tackle, Trey Smith at guard, and Creed Humphries at center - although I kind of think Douglas has his 9-11 for next year on the OL. But I'm sure they'd have a round where they'd take those guys. Wonder how it works if you want to submit for multiple players. For example say they'd take Etienne, Smith, or Eichenberg in R2 but don't know if anybody will be available. Do you submit who you want in an order and then if one of those guys is available you get them and if not everybody bumps down on the list? Would be pretty interesting. Could be a huge class. But they'd have to rule the pandemic is a change in eligibility for even those guys to end up in the draft.
  5. The Jets obviously have a lot of players with expiring contracts. We know extensions are more fiscally responsible than open FA and we know Douglas has done this before with Ryan Griffin midseason on a one year deal. I believe he’s said that’s an option for them as well in interviews this offseason. Also for context, only two healthy players with experience on NFL rosters are currently under contract next year at WR (Crowder, Mims - not counting Enunwa) and CB (Austin, Hall) and just one at edge (Zuniga). Who are some potential extension candidates among guys who are expiring next year at those positions - and what kinds of deals do you think might be reasonable?
  6. If the Steelers trade Juju, it’s because they expect him to leave in free agency after this season. So a new contract has to be built into this. Which I don’t see anyone talking about. What are you willing to pay Juju after trading a 2 and a 5 for him? No idea where the idea Juju struggled last year because his quarterback couldn’t push the ball downfield is coming from. He ate from the slot early in his career and has never been a downfield guy. Average target depth of 8.4-10.3 his whole career - last year included. And 8.4 was his big 2018 season. For the Jets last year for comparison - Crowded’s average target depth was 8, Thomas’ was 9.6, and Anderson’s was 14. Along those lines not sure why we’re so keen on pairing him with Crowder, or confident he can play outside. Juju is a big slot and a guy who is effective underneath. If anything he’s a Crowder replacement. Also just think this has no chance of happening from a fit standpoint as I said earlier. It seems pretty clear that the Jets want outside receivers who can put pressure on defenses vertically with speed to open up the run game and underneath passing game. Frankly I expect they’ll want to replace Crowder with a more vertical slot guy if they get an opportunity too. That’s the direction this offense is going. Curtis Samuel is the guy to target if anyone. Can play inside or outside, vertical threat, Panthers may be looking to move on, also coming off a down year but won’t be as expensive to acquire, and actually struggled because the Panthers quarterbacks couldn’t find him downfield. He’s Mims/Perriman readiness insurance outside and Crowder insurance in case of injury.
  7. Juju is a good football player but he’s better in the slot than outside and isn’t a field stretcher. Don’t think he aligns with what what Douglas has been adding at the position or fits the Jets’ personnel needs at the position well.
  8. derp

    2021 Draft

    I see a few bigger guys being rated highly - Justyn Ross who obviously you’re familiar with, Rashod Bateman, and Seth Williams are all in that mock. They all looked to lack a degree of burst, maybe Williams the least of the three. Which I think is fine - I just don’t think Douglas is drafting guys like that. Was Ross battling any nagging stuff last year?
  9. derp

    2021 Draft

    The 2021 WR class does look pretty good. Chase is insanely good. Waddle and Moore are absolute speed demons and very much seem to fit the historical Gase smurfs who are speed demons mold. Tamorrion Terry very much fits the Joe Douglas big and fast outside receiver mold as well. Watching Moore pinball off of defenses - including Ohio State - in his freshman year highlights is pretty fun. Would recommend. He's the guy I want in the 2021 class at this point. Terry, based on at least a cursory look, is very underrated at this stage - likely because Florida State has been horrific. But he's big, fast, and makes catches in traffic. If they go outside and aren't in position to grab Chase he'd be my guy. I realize this is wildly hyperbolic and just based on highlights but he's the first WR I've seen in a long time who legitimately looks like a top five pick.
  10. Curtis Samuel would be neat. Young, fits the speed narrative, underperformed his air yards due to awful QB play last year.
  11. It's not as bad as 32 but Terry McLaurin had 75 career catches at Ohio State and his rookie year catch and yardage production were better than any one of his college seasons and basically 3/4 of his entire four year career production. Sometimes it clicks late. I say this understanding that Campbell is a fun long shot to make the roster at this stage. But I'd gladly take 3/4 of his college production next year if he does.
  12. Very cool stat. Think he's got a legit chance to be the 6th receiver if he can do stuff on special teams. Clearly fits the mold Douglas is looking for out wide. Could have four big (6'2+), fast (sub 4.4) outside receivers and two quick slot receivers.
  13. Robby had 52 catches, 779 yards, and 5 TD's on 96 targets for 1402 air yards. Average target depth was 14.6 yards. Thomas had 36 catches, 433 yards, and 1 TD on 58 targets for 558 air yards. Average target depth was 9 yards. Perriman had 36 catches for 645 yards and 6 TD's on 69 targets for 1128 air yards. Average target depth was 16.3 yards. So Perriman was targeted farther down the field than Anderson, caught a slightly lower percentage of his targets (52% vs. 54%), and averaged more receiving yards per target (9.3 vs. 8.1). So overall did more with his targets. His receiving yardage was more than half of the total receiving yardage production lost between Thomas and Anderson on less than half of their total targets and he matched their TD's. What's going out the door and needs to be replaced by Mims and Perriman in the WR room is 88 catches for 1212 yards and 6 TD's. So 5.5 catches for 76 yards and .375 touchdowns per game on ten targets. There are individual two players who matched or exceeded that last year and a third who was two catches away from doing so (on 33 less targets). Incidentally - a player is being talked about as being pushed out the door elsewhere and a potential trade target. Here are his stats from last year. Little different from Anderson but not dramatically. 54 catches, 627 yards, and 6 TD's on 105 targets for 1608 air yards. Average target depth was 15.3 yards.
  14. derp

    2021 Draft

    Awesome stuff, thanks. I think given Herndon's injury issues at Miami and then last year it's a big make or break season for him. Gase loves 2TE sets, Darnold loves throwing to the tight end as well, and that seam stretcher role can be important in this offense. I could see it being a sneaky way to add a weapon next draft - particularly in the good TE class. At a glance Freiermuth from Penn State doesn't look quite as athletic (could be wrong) but more like a traditional Y and Jordan from Miami actually looked like a wide receiver - Pitts seemed to split the difference the best as far as I could tell. Plus apparently Douglas likes adding guys who come out of Gainesville.
  15. derp

    2021 Draft

    Watched some early highlights. Supposed to be a good tight end class. Kyle Pitts jumped out - but obviously only can tell so much from highlights. @JiF what can you tell us?
  16. Jaylen Waddle and Rondale Moore are draft eligible next year.
  17. Not really? Dramatically different body types, Pryor was a significantly more powerful hitter, and Davis is much faster and looks way more comfortable in coverage.
  18. I like Berrios and Smith to make the roster. Smith fits the exact mold they’ve been looking for at outside receiver (big, fast), stuck all year, reportedly works hard, and produced some when he got the opportunity. Berrios has return value and provides nice slot depth. Think the other one is a complete wild card. Could be one of a variety of options but I think off roster is most likely. It’d be nice if Doctson sticks here but I wouldn’t bet on him breaking out. We don’t think about things this way but if the WR group is the three locks listed above, Doctson, Berrios, and Smith - Doctson is the oldest WR on the roster. He’s older than both Perriman and Crowder.
  19. Definitely agree Ryan feels more like a Douglas move. That said, I think Douglas is an opportunist - may depend on Clowney's price. He specifically referenced today in his post draft presser as a time pro FA will pick up. If the Jets make a move does that indicate that they think they're potentially in play for a pick next year? I think with all the one year deals there's a haul coming in 2022.
  20. I kind of think this is where the Jets have become a comfortable hybrid between the coach picking the players and the GM picking the guys and putting square pegs in round holes. Gase says I want guys who can spread the field with speed and make plays after the catch. Douglas does that but they're bigger dudes - where maybe Gase would've been more into a Ruggs or Reagor.
  21. I didn’t dig enough to find concrete numbers - but most places you look indicate a) drops were a major issue for FIU WR’s last year and b) some of that falls on Morgan not taking heat off the ball. No issue rolling the dice on a competitive, reasonably smart dude with a live arm who saw a step back in production while playing with a leg injury. I thought that backup QB was a need and I’m glad it got addressed. Helps if there are more injuries, the second half of preseason games will be interesting, and it’s possible they flip him for a pick. I’d guess they really liked him and probably had him sixth on their board - possibly fifth. Can’t see how Eason would’ve been ahead, no clue how they viewed Hurts. And probably was a big drop off after him too. Did think it was interesting Fromm fell so far. Must have had teams thinking he didn’t meet thresholds. Like that the Jets took a gunslinger to back up Darnold. Easier to not have to completely change things up for the backup. And if he’s hurt hopefully you don’t have the team go into that complete shell. Also clear with Perriman, Mims, and taking a quarterback with an arm that the Jets are going to try to take shots downfield to spread the field. I think that’s important.
  22. Definitely agree more 4-3 is coming. The amount of off ball linebackers on the roster is bonkers. Way more than you’d need 3-4 ILB’s. Curious to see how the front seven shakes out. There are a lot of dudes who could make the roster even with only adding Zuniga via the draft.
  23. Waddle and Moore definitively fit the speed narrative in a big way. Chase too obviously.
  24. There’s obviously a wide range of outcomes. I think it should be better for two reasons. Having Perriman and Mims, even if neither individually matches Anderson’s production, should stress defenses quite a bit more than last year. Have to account for deep threats on both sides. I think opens things up underneath for Crowder, Bell, and the tight ends and takes pressure off each of the outside guys. Hopefully it simplifies pre-snap reads a little. Also think that both Mims and Perriman are better in contested situations than Anderson - who was fine but they’re both stronger and more physical. That especially shows up in the red zone where I think it’ll be easier to involve the receivers. Also I know a traditional #1 would be nice and hope Mims develops into that guy - but Crowder was the #1 option in the passing game last year and should be again this year. Having two field stretchers instead of one should be helpful for him as well. Finally I know we’re not counting on anything from Smith and Doctson but I still like Smith and Doctson makes for a nice reclamation project.
  25. I think Shyheim Carter has a very legitimate chance to make the roster.

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