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derp

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Everything posted by derp

  1. You're not responding to someone who's unfamiliar with the draft. I'm quite aware of what draft people said about Leonard Williams and I watched him plenty. I don't like the idea of taking a DT at 3 this year. I was not at all happy about the Leonard Williams pick at the time. I'd get it if they took Quinnen Williams. They're different prospects. Offensive linemen in the first round are super risky nowadays. Not sure where you're getting that idea.
  2. I need to actually watch Williams but he seems like one of the cleaner prospects to come out in recent memory. I'm not sure what's really wrong with him. Allen fits the bigger long-term need and it seems like it's impossible to find edge rushers because the Jets haven't in forever. I know it feels like Allen fills the bigger need but the roster has no DL too. It's a tough call. I'm not really sure.
  3. Sure, but you'd take Williams at 6 and I wouldn't which is why I answered the question the way I did.
  4. Yup that’s exactly what I said. All else equal, I’d like to have Bell. I think he’s a good player. I’m not saying you sign all of that before Bell. But I think they need to have a plan to do all of that and sign Bell if they want. If they do, fine. I’m okay cutting corners in some spots if they think it’ll help Darnold. But I think the roster is too thin to sign him and figure the rest out later. And I don’t think he’s this panacea people seem to think he is. Think he comes with a lot of risk. I struggle with a $17M a year deal that takes a RB with a high volume history who was willing to sit out a year ago past age 30. Particuarly when his backup was one of the more productive backs in the league after replacing him. I think Conner’s production, Bell sitting out last year, and Gurley’s injury are going to make Bell’s market interesting, particularly when he turned down $14M from the Steelers a year ago. I think the Jets have a terrible roster, desperately need to improve the offensive line, have to bring in some edge rush, need to improve the DL and WR groups, and overall need to sign like 25 free agents this year to fill out a roster.
  5. Yeah I absolutely understand how much they need to do. I think the WR is going to be real cap money. The DL too. This roster is thin. I’ve done pretty detailed looks at FA. I don’t think they have the money to do what you’re suggesting and fill out the rest of the roster the way they’ll need to. The one area where I’d be wrong on that is if they can do some cap magic as you’re suggesting and defer cap hits with bonuses. I could be wrong there but I don’t think it’s as easy this year as you suggest though. If that $80M becomes $50M then you’re getting hit for like $90M next year and that’s ignoring all the other guys who need to be paid this year and next.
  6. If the Steelers get a 1 for Brown they could pretty easily get up to 3. Not sure they want to sacrifice adding to the current roster to bring in a young QB but I think they're pretty close to having to tear the whole thing down.
  7. In this scenario there's only $14M in space left for at least one starting DL, a starting LG, 1-2 legit WR's so Peake isn't the WR3, a possible Anderson extension, a backup QB, and like 5 other backups to fill out the roster. There are gaping holes that probably don't allow the team to spend $30M on a RB and a safety.
  8. I think it kind of depends on tier and offer. For example - let's say the Murray stuff is a smokescreen. Two of Bosa/Allen/Williams come off the board at 1-2. I'm not trading down unless it's with the Raiders and they want to move up for a QB or someone absolutely blows me away with an offer (maybe Giants offer this year's 2 and next year's 1 and 3 or something). I want someone in that tier unless I get a ton in return. Flip side, say in some weirdo scenario the draft goes Murray to Cardinals, Bosa/Allen/Williams at 2, Raiders flip up to 3 to get a QB. Jets now sitting at 4 and the Giants call to secure that third QB. They're guaranteed one of Bosa/Allen/Williams is sitting there at 6 and I'd have no issue making the trade even if they just get their 2.
  9. If the Jets have enough money to: -Sign a backup QB -Sign 1-2 NFL caliber WR's so they don't go into the draft with Charone Peake as their WR3 -Sign a starting caliber LG and C -Sign RT insurance in case Shell is not healthy -Sign a starting caliber defensive lineman so Folo Fatukasi (as one of only 3 DL on the roster right now) is not starting heading into the draft -Sign another DL so they don't go into the draft with 4 DL. Possibly someone who can start over Shepherd. -Sign a starting caliber edge rusher -Sign 1-2 NFL caliber corners so Rashard Robinson, Derrick Jones, and Parry Nickerson are not the only corners besides Trumaine Johnson with NFL experience -Sign a kicker ...and sign Bell on top of that, then sure I'd like to have Bell on the roster. I'm skeptical which is why I think they end up going Coleman. I'd probably prioritize a second edge rusher over Bell too. Obviously not all of those things more important than RB. But they all need to happen - with or without the RB. And they all will cost money. This. Roster. Is. Decimated. It's what happens when you draft poorly. They literally need to add almost 30 NFL caliber players to the roster between free agency and six draft picks. When the roster is this bad I'm okay not spending $17M on a running back who sat out a year and had a backup step into his role and not have production at the position fall off a cliff.
  10. Think Z Smith signs for more than P Smith but that’s just a guess. I believe you signed 8 guys there for $79.5M. Jets should have $105.1 in space after cutting Crowell less about $12.8 for draft and Anderson’s RFA (more if he gets extended which I think is realistic). Do some math there and I think add a million in space since that all totaled gets the roster to 53 guys and cap is top 51 and you’d have around $14M in space left. My issue though would be you’d be going into the draft with: Enunwa, Anderson, Peake, DeAngelo Yancey, JJ Jones, Tim White and Stacy Coley at WR Herndon and Leggett at TE No LG and aside from the 4 starters and Shell just Eric Smith, Dieugot Joseph, Jon Toth, and Jordan Morgan on the OL Leonard Williams, Nathan Shepherd, and Folo Fatukasi as the only DL on the roster No kicker Right now the team’s depth is a disaster due to bad drafting. There are probably 25 guys worthy of roster spots on the team right now - I am not exaggerating for the sake of making a point either - and 6 draft picks. Maccagnan needs to sign a ton of FA’s, some at positions we don’t want to see (like the DL), and some we do but have a weak FA class (like WR). He’s not going into the draft with no LG, Fatukasi starting, and Peake as the WR3. Possibly not going in with Shepherd starting either. Backup DL will need to be signed. A kicker will need to be signed. It’s all going to cost money. I just wanted to make the point that as much as the Jets have cap space - they have no roster. The offseason is going to be ugly. They’re probably going to sign less guys than we all want and they’re going to be signing defensive linemen and back end of the roster guys - I think before they go spend $13M on a safety. Also think that’s why they might not go Bell. Mock offseason needs to have a lot of bodies.
  11. derp

    Josh Allen PLEASE

    Note this is not intended as a dig at Bosa. But I keep seeing career figures for Bosa thrown out. And people seem to not like Allen. Bosa: 29 games, 17.5 sacks, 29 TFL, 2 FF, 0 FR, 1 TD, 2 PD, 0 INT, 77 total tackles, 47 solo tackles Allen: 42 games, 31.5 sacks, 42 TFL, 11 FF, 2 FR, 0 TD, 8 PD, 1 INT, 220 total tackles, 121 assisted tackles Also keep seeing how young Bosa is - Bosa DOB 10/23/1997, Allen 7/17/1997. They’re just over 3 months apart. Bosa is a fantastic prospect. The raw stats even on a per game basis probably don’t do him justice since his snap % has to be lower than Allen’s was. Allen was massively productive in a great conference as a senior after two years of being very productive in a great conference. Did not have a stacked supporting cast. Is not an older guy beating up on younger guys or a one year wonder. Got better and better. Had responsibilities standing up. Supposedly good character. Good athletic testing. Deserves his due. He’s a tremendous prospect.
  12. Just to clarify since it threw me - I think those were Bosa’s stats over 29 games, not 21.
  13. Allen. Though I think there's a real chance Bosa is there and would be the pick.
  14. Do the comp picks matter for the Jets this year? I can't imagine any way the Jets get out of this offseason with $100M in cap space and very few noteworthy FA's and gain comp picks. Absolutely will have an impact for some teams though. Houston feels like he'll end up a Raven or a Patriot to replace Smith/Flowers.
  15. Given Williams' 4-3 background and attacking style I would guess (though it is just a guess) that the Jets won't employ a traditional NT next year and will move guys around. Wade Philips' 3-4 with the Rams last year had a depth chart that listed Michael Brockers (traditional 5-tech) at DE, Suh at NT, and Donald at DT. I could see something like Anderson at DE with some combo of Leo and Shephard at NT and DT. There's definitely room for another DL just a matter of what kind of guy they want. I do think Leo is versatile enough to move around and Shephard is not locked into a starting role so possible they add multiple - though I can't believe the Jets haven't settled their DL yet.
  16. Great post. That's my big question here. I think Gurley and the season Conner had were bad for Bell's value, but if that's the case and he has to swallow his pride...will he, or does he just take his ball and go home? In my opinion of his market is under that $15M he's almost forced to go to a win now team like the Eagles and take a "discount" in order to try to be part of a winning team in order to save face. If he just goes for the best offer and that's less than what the Steelers were offering...
  17. I also think the perspective on Williams is going to change a little when the Jets spend decent money on the OL this offseason. Looking at draft needs before free agency is always messy. The most Maccagnan way to do this is to clean up interior OL and draft a tackle day 2 who competes with Shell this year and takes over for Beachum next year. Anyway, I think he probably lands somewhere in the 8-14 range on draft day. The defensive prospects are just better at comparably important positions. Quarterbacks will get pushed up. And there are some questions about his ultimate position. I think it's earlier than where he'd go if he's just a straight guard since he certainly could be a tackle but I think at guard he'd be really good and worth taking in the teens.
  18. Actual article by Hughes says one agent says they're undeniably the favorite, another agent says they're in the mix along with the Eagles and Bucs, and another source says they prefer Coleman at his lower price tag with less mileage and off field concerns. Had that big quote and then heavily hedged it, only thing definitive was that they'll come away with one or the other.
  19. “I would expect someone (the Jets, perhaps) to pay the 25-year-old Flowers somewhere around $17 million a year.” Not sure if just speculating but found it interesting. I like the idea of nabbing Flowers and moving him all over the place. Big money obviously though, more than his sack production would justify...but that’s free agency.
  20. I was actually comparing Bell’s stats the prior year adjusted for one extra game to just whoever started for the Steelers. So there is no 2 for 1 comparison.
  21. I'm not trying to be one either - but you're not just making these decisions in a vaacum. Bell is a good, versatile football player and the Jets don't have a lot at running back. Sure, they'd be better with him. Honestly, I think they'd be better with Coleman too. The Jets have to fill a ton of needs this offseason. Probably need 4 starters on defense and another 5 on offense. They have a lot of cap space but that money evaporates very quickly. Bell is going to be expensive. That's money you cannot spend elsewhere. And young players stepped into his role and gave the Steelers really good production - because the Steelers are a really good offense. Even if he elevates them, they elevate him. I'd much rather money on Bell goes to edge rusher and offensive line. If they've got that all pulled together and still have money to splooge on Bell - fine. But if resources are limited Bell is not my first choice to spend money on. The way I'd look at it is that the Steelers got basically Bell's 2017 production less like 17 total yards a game from two minimum salary players - on less volume than they gave Bell the year before. To me, the difference of like $14M+ in salary does not justify those 17 total yards a game on more volume.
  22. Than with their third string running back? Yeah, maybe. I think most teams tend to do better with their first string running back than their third string running back. Their December wasn't bad either. Beat the Pats minus Bell and Conner. Lost to the Saints by 3 on the road minus Bell and Conner. Maybe Bell wins that game but the Saints are excellent at home - not a bad result. Lost to the Chargers by 3 the game Conner got hurt. Not great but the Chargers were good and a mid-game injury to the starting RB is always problematic. The Oakland loss was bad for sure although West Coast games are weird. I would've expected them to go 3-2 in December. They went 2-3. Not egregious and again - Conner missed 3.5 of those games.
  23. ...Samuels started for the Steelers weeks 13-15 when Conner was hurt. I thought you knew what happened when Bell was out last year?
  24. Last year he had more YPC than Bell his prior year. Slightly less yardage per game which came down to attempts. Less receiving yardage by again that was volume. More touchdowns. He’s close on volume (yards per game) and his efficiency was excellent. I definitely disagree production isn’t close.
  25. How do you figure Connor's year was worse than Bell's worst year? And, even if it was worse - which I think is debatable, what would you give Connor if he was a FA given his near-Bell production?

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