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Mark Sanchez: MERGED


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How are dropped INT's a BS stat?

There were a lot that were dropped last season. Turnovers are very flukey season to season...those passes could be caught this year.

How? Simple.

It's far easier to catch a pass as a receiver than it is to intercept it. The receiver & QB know where the ball is going. They know the route and distance. A DB has to guess and react in split second to make a play. There are too many assumptions in order to say the DB should have made the interception.

Consider that Roddy White led the NFL in receptions in 2010 with 115 while Ed Reed led the NFL in INTs with 8.

Consider that the Pats led the NFL with 25 INTs total in 2010, that's still 231 LESS than the worst receiving team in the NFL, the Panthers, who had 256 total receptions.

Probability is the essence of FO's "stat." If an INT is incredibly harder to do than a reception, then we can't use a stat saying something "should have happened."

There were 17,813 total attempts in the NFL in 2010 with 10,185 receptions and 527 INTs. A reception occurred 57.1% of the time and an INT 2.9% of the time. The Colts and Saints each had 450 receptions as a team, 77 less than the total INTs thrown by every QB in the NFL that year. For every INT there were 19 receptions.

For FOs' "stat" to be accurate about Sanchez (or any other QB) that means he should have had 285 more dropped passes. It's an absurd number because "dropped interceptions" is an absurd "stat."

FO's "dropped interception" statistic is claiming a 100% chance of INT on the 15 passes they tracked which were dropped although an INT only happens less than 3% of the time. It's a false assumption by FO.

Sanchez, specifically, threw 507 times with 13 INTs, which means an INT occurred 2.5% of the time which is slightly LESS than the NFL average. If Sanchez threw an INT at the league average then he would have thrown 14.7 INTs, which rounds up to 15 TOTAL. Those are 2 extra INTs.

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I might spend this year watching the Saints. As I posted earlier I didn't get to see the game, plus it's preseason so I can overlook a bad performance. Although the level of ineptitude I heard and have read about is extremely alarming.

If Sanchez pulls this same crap in the regular season however, it's just not entertaining to watch. I'll watch the big games and the playoffs, like I do for every team, but I won't tolerate multiple Sanchez sh*tty games. Look, I'm probably the biggest Sanchez pumper on this board, but he can't just keep going out there and sh*tting the field every week. Even I can only blame Schitty for so much for so long.

With all that garbage about Jets West and his problems with underage girls, Sanchez is quickly looking more and more like a tool to me. Stop talking and start doing already. The bar is not even set high. It's a freaking passing league too. Honestly I'd rather watch him throw 5 INTs a game in the endzone than these type of garbage statlines. If you can't push the ball up the field at all, just throw it into the endzone on bombs every play. It's like a punt.

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How are dropped INT's a BS stat?

There were a lot that were dropped last season. Turnovers are very flukey season to season...those passes could be caught this year.

But on the other hand, our defense should force more turnovers than last season where we barely had any.

I agree Matt. I think our DB's are playing really well together-Cro looks like the wekest link back there. Wilson is still shaky but having Donald Strickland back IF HE CAN STAY HEALTHY will be a great addition.

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I'm not going to go all Senor Gato in your a$$ (Ha!), but I'm sick of the throwing Shotty under the bus to protect Sanchez. While there was no gameplan last night, the issue wasn't the playcalling. There were no glaring errors or momentum killers like a 3rd and 11 reverse play. He didn't even use the wildcat while Sanchez was in, if I remember correctly. Sanchez was throwing the ball behind and over WRs plenty, and unless I'm mistaken, I don't think Shotty calls for that.

I'm not panicked, because we've shown we can be a playoff team with Sanchez performing at the same level he did the last two years. I'm just disappointed that, though early to close the book obviously, there's no sign of progress either.

I pretty much agree with everything you've said except for that last bit. He was very sharp in the first two preseason games, showing very good accuracy (his only incompletion in the 1st preseason game was a dropped pass.) He threw the ball away last night a couple of times instead of trying to force things which he really never did before (this has led to tons of dropped INTs in the past. :winking0001: ) He also showed an ability to slide without looking completely uncoordinated.

The tough thing for him was losing 3-4 months of work that you know he would have put in had he had the abilty to work at Atlantic Health. Because of that, he probably won't take the jump we were all hoping for, but I do think you will see overall improvement and I think we've seen a little already.

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I remember last years preseason...everyone said "it's only preseason" and then the offense comes out opening night and baptizes the new stadium with 3 field goals and a loss.

Last night Rex was forced to go for it on his own 29 yard line because our starting offense would have gone an entire half(game for them) going 3 and out.

They need to put a TD on the board in the first quarter against Dallas to get this thing going.

Edited by Matt39
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I remember last years preseason...everyone said "it's only preseason" and then the offense comes out opening night and baptizes the new stadium with 3 field goals and a loss.

Last night Rex was forced to go for it on his own 29 yard line because our starting offense would have gone an entire half(game for them) going 3 and out.

They need to put a TD on the board in the first quarter against Dallas to get this thing going.

I think you're asking for a little too much there Matt. Does anybody else think that maybe, just maybe we should ACCEPT the opening KO's once in a while?

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I remember last years preseason...everyone said "it's only preseason" and then the offense comes out opening night and baptizes the new stadium with 3 field goals and a loss.

Last night Rex was forced to go for it on his own 29 yard line because our starting offense would have gone an entire half(game for them) going 3 and out.

They need to put a TD on the board in the first quarter against Dallas to get this thing going.

Actually, all they need to do is win.

I couldn't friggin' care less when they score as long as they score more than the other team.

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Actually, all they need to do is win.

I couldn't friggin' care less when they score as long as they score more than the other team.

I mean, this is just silly though.

Of course scoring more than the other team is all that matters. I'd take 3-0 wins each week. But, I wouldn't feel good about the team if we went into a week thinking we were good for about 3 points.

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I mean, this is just silly though.

Of course scoring more than the other team is all that matters. I'd take 3-0 wins each week. But, I wouldn't feel good about the team if we went into a week thinking we were good for about 3 points.

It's the Jeckle & Hyde thing you referenced earlier. The Jets lost 5 regular season games last year and in 4 of them they didn't score an offensive TD. That's crazy. Think about that. The Jets went 11-1 in games they scored an offensive TD. In those 12 games, the Jets scored 367 points (29 ppg) and in those 4 other games, they scored 18 points total (4.5 ppg). Yes, there are defensive and ST scores in there, but still. The differense is staggering.

Not scoring an offensive TD is inexcusable. The Jets should not be in that position again this year. That's on Sanchez & Schitty.

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Good grief (kind of fits with the Met Life thing No?) talk about over reaction. Sanchez was awful the first 5 drives last night. Have to agree with Kleck here. I think he over focused on Plax. He did the same thing last season when Holmes came back.

Plax was doubled, and Sanchez kept forcing the ball to him. Plax had 4 targets, most on the team, and 0 receptions. Of course when a QB has that kind of run it's concerning, but overall this preseason Sanchez has been very good.

Including his bad game last night here's his stats.

26-43 60.46% 3TD's 0 picks 98.33 QB rating. if he keeps just those #'s up all season the Jets will be very tough to beat. I think his #'s will be much better.

Relax everyone. Yes I want him to become more consistent, but for now I'll just except winning

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Sounds like he was as bad as he sounded on the radio. I still have no power so I listened a bit on my car radio, and it seemed he was just ignoring open WRs, especially Burress.

I don't like how it sounded. If Mark doesn't put it together by the end of the year, draft another QB in the 1st round. Doesn't matter if Sanchez gets it together next year, with the rookie salary cap in place there is no reason now to keep drafting QBs until you hit on one for sure.

Back when the Niners had Montana they still developed Young and I think 2 other big name QBs whose names I forget now. GB always would do the same thing too.

More recently, the Chargers had both Brees and Rivers. The freaking Giants had Warner and Eli. The Cheatriots cheated with Bledsoe, Brady and Cassel, but they probably don't count.

Still the idea is don't sit on your laurels. I would like to have the Eagles situation on hand, then just trade QBs to other teams for king's ransoms.

Wow. Where to start? I'm not going into the 49er thing because I was too young to look analytically at football rosters. The reason why the Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers was because Drew Brees was not very good in his first few years. He was a 2nd round player with little talent (except LT) yet had the likes of Doug Flutie replacing him during games because he was just plain ineffective. It wasn't until his contract year that he showed a lot of promise, and SD needed to decide on keeping him or trading Rivers because they couldn't retain 2 mega salaries QBs on their roster.

There was a reason why the Giants had the #4 pick that year and they brought Warner in exclusively to mentor Eli. Poor example.

I'm gonna just facepalm the Patriot example. Drew Bledsoe, Tom Brady and Matt Cassel were not even on the same team at the same time. Plus lets be real Brady will go down as one of the best QBs in history but was drafted late and wasn't drafted as the heir apparent like Manning was for the Giants. Matt Cassel? Jesus christ I don't follow college football but know he didn't play a lick at USC, was drafted in the 7th round and benefitted to being surrounded with tons of talent, great coaching and an opportunity to play.

I'll be the first to admit I was a Kellen Clemens lover and have warmed up to Sanchez in the past 2 years. His problem is having Schotty as his coordinator and a coaching staff that needs to teach him to go through his progressions on every pass play. It seems like there are plays where he predetermines who he's throwing to and locks on a tunnel vision on that receiver no matter what. It happened his first year after the acquired Edwards, last year when Holmes came back and he's starting to do it with Plax. Sanchez needs to be fluid in the pocket look at all his options and not be afraid to use Keller as a blanket or his RB (well if Shonn Greene actually catches a ball). But drafting a QB in the first round next year? Please. We've got way more glaring holes like a pass rush or safety

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I mean, this is just silly though.

Of course scoring more than the other team is all that matters. I'd take 3-0 wins each week. But, I wouldn't feel good about the team if we went into a week thinking we were good for about 3 points.

First of all, that is ridiculous and proves you're just as capable of making an irrational argument as the rest of us.

The Jets averaged 22.9 points per game last year, which was a little bit more than a point per game more than they averaged in '09. If they can average a FG more this year and the defense can get back to '09 form, we will win a sh*tload of games. I have seen nothing this preseason, including last night, to suggest this team isn't capable of making that relatively small stride to get to the next level. Sanchez has absolutely shown improvement and the only way not to see it is to only focus on the negative. I grant you, he still has a long way to go but the reality is, he doesn't need to get all the way there this year for the team to take the next step.

Is it really unrealistic to expect him to jump to a 58% completion rate, 3500+ yards, 25+ TDs and 15 or fewer INTs? If he does, we win 12-13 games. Guess what? If Brady simply reverts his INT total on the season to the mean for his career, which is 12-14, the Pats will lose 2-3 more games than they did last year. In those small improvements by the Jets and small reversion for the Pat lies a division title and at least one home playoff game.

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Not sure why the sky is melting here ? Anybody explain ?

Its a pre-season game.

The JETS did not want to show their cards considering we play them again on Christmas Eve. Sanchez said they had called very basic offensive plays.

And if people are forgetting he has 2 new receivers he is throwing to.

As opposed to the 2 receivers no longer with the Jets that he used to throw high wide or behind too?

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I have to say I can't believe this thread has gone on for 5 pages.

The guy lost me with the original post, but I was curious as to where this was going, so I tuned back in.

My only response is that because he's led his team to 2 AFC Championship games, we tend to forget that the kid is still "a baby" as NFL quarterbacks go.

And as with almost every young QB, even the great ones, inconsistency in the first 3 or 4 years of their careers is part of the deal (see Elway, Favre, Montana, Namath, Staubach, Simms, Bradshaw, etc...).

The important thing is that he plays big when it counts most.

Edited by JoeWillie
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First of all, that is ridiculous and proves you're just as capable of making an irrational argument as the rest of us.

The Jets averaged 22.9 points per game last year, which was a little bit more than a point per game more than they averaged in '09. If they can average a FG more this year and the defense can get back to '09 form, we will win a sh*tload of games. I have seen nothing this preseason, including last night, to suggest this team isn't capable of making that relatively small stride to get to the next level. Sanchez has absolutely shown improvement and the only way not to see it is to only focus on the negative. I grant you, he still has a long way to go but the reality is, he doesn't need to get all the way there this year for the team to take the next step.

Is it really unrealistic to expect him to jump to a 58% completion rate, 3500+ yards, 25+ TDs and 15 or fewer INTs? If he does, we win 12-13 games. Guess what? If Brady simply reverts his INT total on the season to the mean for his career, which is 12-14, the Pats will lose 2-3 more games than they did last year. In those small improvements by the Jets and small reversion for the Pat lies a division title and at least one home playoff game.

Four games without a TD is bad regardless of averages.

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How? Simple.

It's far easier to catch a pass as a receiver than it is to intercept it. The receiver & QB know where the ball is going. They know the route and distance. A DB has to guess and react in split second to make a play. There are too many assumptions in order to say the DB should have made the interception.

Consider that Roddy White led the NFL in receptions in 2010 with 115 while Ed Reed led the NFL in INTs with 8.

Consider that the Pats led the NFL with 25 INTs total in 2010, that's still 231 LESS than the worst receiving team in the NFL, the Panthers, who had 256 total receptions.

Probability is the essence of FO's "stat." If an INT is incredibly harder to do than a reception, then we can't use a stat saying something "should have happened."

There were 17,813 total attempts in the NFL in 2010 with 10,185 receptions and 527 INTs. A reception occurred 57.1% of the time and an INT 2.9% of the time. The Colts and Saints each had 450 receptions as a team, 77 less than the total INTs thrown by every QB in the NFL that year. For every INT there were 19 receptions.

For FOs' "stat" to be accurate about Sanchez (or any other QB) that means he should have had 285 more dropped passes. It's an absurd number because "dropped interceptions" is an absurd "stat."

FO's "dropped interception" statistic is claiming a 100% chance of INT on the 15 passes they tracked which were dropped although an INT only happens less than 3% of the time. It's a false assumption by FO.

Sanchez, specifically, threw 507 times with 13 INTs, which means an INT occurred 2.5% of the time which is slightly LESS than the NFL average. If Sanchez threw an INT at the league average then he would have thrown 14.7 INTs, which rounds up to 15 TOTAL. Those are 2 extra INTs.

This is totally incoherent. I seriously do not understand a single one of the points you're trying to make. Dropped interceptions is a fine stat. All you do is count stuff and compare numbers. I guess there can sometimes be a little bit of subjectivity as to whether a particular incompletion qualifies as a dropped interception, but they adjust for tendencies and in any event I'm fairly confident the game charters know them when they see them. Accounting for dropped interceptions predicts future interceptions better than ignoring them. It's really pretty simple.

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This is totally incoherent. I seriously do not understand a single one of the points you're trying to make. Dropped interceptions is a fine stat. All you do is count stuff and compare numbers. I guess there can sometimes be a little bit of subjectivity as to whether a particular incompletion qualifies as a dropped interception, but they adjust for tendencies and in any event I'm fairly confident the game charters know them when they see them. Accounting for dropped interceptions predicts future interceptions better than ignoring them. It's really pretty simple.

if i understand smc correctly... He's saying dropped interception are a dumb stat because if a defender was supposed to catch everything that hits their hands, they'd be receivers not dbs .

Dropped interception means it should have been an interception... But just because it hits a defenders had does not mean it should be a catch..... Their defenders.

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This is totally incoherent. I seriously do not understand a single one of the points you're trying to make. Dropped interceptions is a fine stat. All you do is count stuff and compare numbers. I guess there can sometimes be a little bit of subjectivity as to whether a particular incompletion qualifies as a dropped interception, but they adjust for tendencies and in any event I'm fairly confident the game charters know them when they see them. Accounting for dropped interceptions predicts future interceptions better than ignoring them. It's really pretty simple.

Dude, STFU.

The point is completely coherent. I've debated with FO writers and the guy who does the AFCE blog for ESPN on this issue , and they completely understood the points made.

Dropped INT assumes an event that is statistically improbable. That is fundamentally improper. Defend it by analysis rather than by your usual pompous drivel.

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if i understand smc correctly... He's saying dropped interception are a dumb stat because if a defender was supposed to catch everything that hits their hands, they'd be receivers not dbs .

Dropped interception means it should have been an interception... But just because it hits a defenders had does not mean it should be a catch..... Their defenders.

Thanks, Brett, but you don't need to explain it to Aten because he understands but chose to be his usual ahole self.

An INT is the rarest event in the passing game, only occurring 3% of the time. In other words, for every time a QB passes he has a 97% chance NOT to throw an INT. Thus, how can FO determine that 15 certain passes were guaranteed to be intercepted when an INT only occurs 3% of the time?

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An INT is the rarest event in the passing game, only occurring 3% of the time. In other words, for every time a QB passes he has a 97% chance NOT to throw an INT. Thus, how can FO determine that 15 certain passes were guaranteed to be intercepted when an INT only occurs 3% of the time?

Evidently even FO has a LOT of kinks to work out when it comes to evaluating QB's. A maddening task. Sometimes, I'd just as well prefer the eye test.

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An INT is the rarest event in the passing game, only occurring 3% of the time. In other words, for every time a QB passes he has a 97% chance NOT to throw an INT. Thus, how can FO determine that 15 certain passes were guaranteed to be intercepted when an INT only occurs 3% of the time?

Because their data set is [passes that fall incomplete by way of hitting a defensive player in the hands], not [all pass attempts].

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