Klecko73isGod Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Baseball playoffs are pretty random though. Short series' do that. Playing better baseball helps too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Playing better baseball helps too. No sh*t. We're the Giants the best team last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 So in other words, two years is not remotely large enough a sample size to make any realistic prediction off of. Because as Sanchez improves and develops into the QB we all hope he will become, his mean will improve. Meaning this is simply another meaningless exercise in the metal masturbation known as "sabermetrics." BTW, thank you for not being a condescending prick for a change like your buddy and realizing that just because someone doesn't wholeheartedly agree with sabermetrics doesn't mean they don't understand it. 1) The only pricks I see this thread are you and smc 2) You must certainly do not understand what the stat is saying, if you did, we wouldn't be arguing 3) Aten isn't my buddy and I resent the implication Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 There's nothing wrong with embracing some aspects of the advanced statistics. In basketball and football- there still leaves a ton to be desired due to the nature of the game. But in baseball, its as individual as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 For instance, why are you applying the league avg int % of 3% to cases when the pass hits the defender in the hands. Obviously, the vast majority of those 97% non intercepted passed DO NOT hit defender's in the hands. So what is the average rate of intercepted passed when they DO hit the defender in the hands Further to this ... I did some research and ESPN had gotten some numbers from FO for dropped INTs by defenders. Miami’s Sean Smith, Tampa Bay’s Aqib Talib and Kansas City’s Derrick Johnson each had five and "led" the NFL. Sean Smith had 1 INT in 2010 (5 DINT) 83% fail rate Aqib Talib had 6 INTs in 2010 (5 DINT) 45% fail rate Derrick Johnson had 1 INT in 2010 (5 DINT) 83% fail rate Conversely, Courtland Finnegan had 2 INT in 2010 (1 DINT) 33% fail rate Talib was tied for 5th most INTs in NFL last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 1) The only pricks I see this thread are you and smc 2) You must certainly do not understand what the stat is saying, if you did, we wouldn't be arguing 3) Aten isn't my buddy and I resent the implication 1) You're one of the biggest aholes around and you and everyone knows it. 2) The stat is easily understandable, it's simply based on a false premise 3) You're Aten's lapdog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 There's nothing wrong with embracing some aspects of the advanced statistics. In basketball and football- there still leaves a ton to be desired due to the nature of the game. But in baseball, its as individual as it gets. I don't disagree. They are useful to a degree and they help measure some things that previously couldn't really be quantified. I just get annoyed when condescending nerds act like if you don't agree you don't understand. They should all go back to work in comic book stores and independent cappuccino shops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I don't disagree. They are useful to a degree and they help measure some things that previously couldn't really be quantified. I just get annoyed when condescending nerds act like if you don't agree you don't understand. They should all go back to work in comic book stores and independent cappuccino shops. I agree with you there. No reason to be condescending...and the tone is obvious. But while we work in the real world they're working on their 7th Masters degree collecting a pile of debt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Further, Aarn Shatz from FO admits that they used "voluntee charters" to chart dropped INTs and in the comments section this is what he states: These are the directions given to charters: "We don't mean a defender sort of near the play, or guys who dive and see interceptions go off their fingertips. We mean guys who dropped balls that hit them right in the hands or chest." Remember: This is the kind of thing that would be somewhat subjective, no matter WHO was marking it: FO charters or the official scorers at the stadiums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I agree with you there. No reason to be condescending...and the tone is obvious. But while we work in the real world they're working on their 7th Masters degree collecting a pile of debt. I really don't know how you could read SMC's posts and miss the condescenion/barrage of insults, or are familiar with Klacko's abrasive/obnoxious style and expect civilized discourse... In any event, this is all for fun and while Klacko may whine a lot, I know he knows it's good natured ball busting.. same for SoMentallyChallanged oh: and i've been working FT since I was 12 and don't have 1 masters degree let alone 7.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I really don't know how you could read SMC's posts and miss the condescenion/barrage of insults, or are familiar with Klacko's abrasive/obnoxious style and expect civilized discourse... In any event, this is all for fun and while Klacko may whine a lot, I know he knows it's good natured ball busting.. same for SoMentallyChallanged oh: and i've been working FT since I was 12 and don't have 1 masters degree let alone 7.. lol, havent we had this conversation before? I never put you in the Mensa group. Isn't that what the gang around here calls it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I really don't know how you could read SMC's posts and miss the condescenion/barrage of insults, or are familiar with Klacko's abrasive/obnoxious style and expect civilized discourse... In any event, this is all for fun and while Klacko may whine a lot, I know he knows it's good natured ball busting.. same for SoMentallyChallanged oh: and i've been working FT since I was 12 and don't have 1 masters degree let alone 7.. Sure you have, Channy, sure you have. You know I didn't mean you (puts "Kick-Me" sign on CTM while patting him on the back.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I really don't know how you could read SMC's posts and miss the condescenion/barrage of insults, or are familiar with Klacko's abrasive/obnoxious style and expect civilized discourse... In any event, this is all for fun and while Klacko may whine a lot, I know he knows it's good natured ball busting.. same for SoMentallyChallanged oh: and i've been working FT since I was 12 and don't have 1 masters degree let alone 7.. Oh, I was only condescending and sending a barrage of insults to Aten, who I hate with the white hot fire of the sun and curse his descendants. You, I simply pity because of chronic douchocity and lack of back bone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I really don't know how you could read SMC's posts and miss the condescenion/barrage of insults, or are familiar with Klacko's abrasive/obnoxious style and expect civilized discourse... In any event, this is all for fun and while Klacko may whine a lot, I know he knows it's good natured ball busting.. same for SoMentallyChallanged oh: and i've been working FT since I was 12 and don't have 1 masters degree let alone 7.. I don't think he was referring to the street corner in Chelsea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 lol, havent we had this conversation before? I never put you in the Mensa group. Isn't that what the gang around here calls it? I think you're right.. lol ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 A dropped INT must assume that the INT was going to happen but for the defender dropping it. It was a guaranteed event which the defender screwed up for some reason. The problem is that the assumed event (the INT) actually has a low probability of occurring (3%). Thus, it is an improper assumption. You can't say something "should have happened" when the fail rate is 97%. Again. Data set. Passes that hit a defender in the hands turn into actual interceptions at a higher rate than 3/100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsFanInDenver Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Face palms not withstanding it might be time to raise your expectations. Expectations are always raised. But i do not see why the whole world is so down on Sanchez!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slats Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Don't be silly, it's not like the Jets had 3 of their top 4 receivers rank amongst the league leaders in drops or anything. Between the dropped int's and the dropped completions, I think we can conclude that Sanchez throws an impossible ball to catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Between the dropped int's and the dropped completions, I think we can conclude that Sanchez throws an impossible ball to catch. Apparently so. Nobody wants anything to do with that damn thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I really don't know how you could read SMC's posts and miss the condescenion/barrage of insults, or are familiar with Klacko's abrasive/obnoxious style and expect civilized discourse... In any event, this is all for fun and while Klacko may whine a lot, I know he knows it's good natured ball busting.. same for SoMentallyChallanged oh: and i've been working FT since I was 12 and don't have 1 masters degree let alone 7.. Oh, I was only condescending and sending a barrage of insults to Aten, who I hate with the white hot fire of the sun and curse his descendants. You, I simply pity because of chronic douchocity and lack of back bone. What happened to you two? Back in the day when we all had ole Chadwick to mutually hate upon, you two crazy kids got along so well. It pains me to see you two like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Wow, that's quite impressive considering the Jets haven't been around longer than SoFla has been alive. Glad to see all of your arguments are just as coherent as the one you began this thread with. yea I decided to not even bother with that one BG-clearly it's a guy just looking to argue with any and everybody here even if it means arguing the perceived age of someone...talk about a crappy start on a message board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 What happened to you two? Back in the day when we all had ole Chadwick to mutually hate upon, you two crazy kids got along so well. It pains me to see you two like this. We had a common enemy back then. It was WWII and I was the US while CTM was the USSR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 What happened to you two? Back in the day when we all had ole Chadwick to mutually hate upon, you two crazy kids got along so well. It pains me to see you two like this. Mafia! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 this site is starting to give me a headache-every day it's the same stupid crap-people fighting, people calling each other names, people pretending to be all-knowing-I think it's time to take a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Mafia! lol True. Mafia revealed your true nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SMC Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 this site is starting to give me a headache-every day it's the same stupid crap-people fighting, people calling each other names, people pretending to be all-knowing-I think it's time to take a break I agree, SoFla. And it's all the Sanchez-haters' fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 this site is starting to give me a headache-every day it's the same stupid crap-people fighting, people calling each other names, people pretending to be all-knowing-I think it's time to take a break fwiw.. most of the stuff in here is good natured.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Thanks, Brett, but you don't need to explain it to Aten because he understands but chose to be his usual ahole self. An INT is the rarest event in the passing game, only occurring 3% of the time. In other words, for every time a QB passes he has a 97% chance NOT to throw an INT. Thus, how can FO determine that 15 certain passes were guaranteed to be intercepted when an INT only occurs 3% of the time? I don't think it's important because every INT is assumed to be caught the same as a regular pass. It does matter, though, because it speaks to both the QB's accuracy and his ability to read where defenders are. Simply being inaccurate (50-55% compl percentage) with the culprit being a little ahead of the receiver, a little behind, a little overthrown, a little underthrown -- but catchable to either his receiver or no one else - is one thing. Inaccurate where he's throwing it right to a defender, or is inaccurate with his receiver in traffic, is another. On paper, throwing over someone's head out of bounds is the same as hitting a CB between the numbers and it's simply dropped. We all know one is a far worse pass and is of greater concern than the other. Both can be marks of inaccuracy. The latter is a mark of inaccuracy combined with poor reading of the defense & coverage. So one is a physical problem and the other is both a physical and a mental problem. He was money plenty of times during the season & post-season so I still have high hopes. But to ignore dropped interceptions means you think that pass was no worse than one in which his own receiver dropped a perfect strike. And no one thinks that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleckineau Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well here is the personal attack forum certain posters have been craving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleedin Green Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well here is the personal attack forum certain posters have been craving. You suck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serphnx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 If we're going to use dropped INTs against Sanchez, what about dropped TDs and dropped 1st downs? He probably leads the league in those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 If we're going to use dropped INTs against Sanchez, what about dropped TDs and dropped 1st downs? He probably leads the league in those. No doubt he had plenty of those as well. I don't know if he led the league, but it's possible as Holmes and Cotchery alone might have had 20 between them. I'm sure someone can post the official number of this unofficial stat. Someone threw it up here not long ago and I think those two were both in the top 10 in the league in drops and/or drop percentage, and that's with Holmes missing 4 games. I know he blew one game-winning TD pass. Think it was the loss against Miami but now I can't remember for sure. At the same time, Holmes - as well as Cotchery and Edwards - bailed Sanchez out of some questionable (or at best, barely-catchable) passes with pretty amazing acrobatics. I wouldn't take that away from Sanchez as no one's taking great catches away from other QB's he's being measured up against Eli is probably up there as well. I didn't watch all the Giants games last year but just from the ones I saw there were at least 5 picks that hit his own receiver first & then bounced up in the air, into the waiting arms of a defender. His receivers had major butterfingers last year. I don't know who else is up there, but probably because so many drops & muffed catches turned into picks I just remember Eli the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 No doubt he had plenty of those as well. I don't know if he led the league, but it's possible as Holmes and Cotchery alone might have had 20 between them. I'm sure someone can post the official number of this unofficial stat. Someone threw it up here not long ago and I think those two were both in the top 10 in the league in drops and/or drop percentage, and that's with Holmes missing 4 games. I know he blew one game-winning TD pass. Think it was the loss against Miami but now I can't remember for sure. At the same time, Holmes - as well as Cotchery and Edwards - bailed Sanchez out of some questionable (or at best, barely-catchable) passes with pretty amazing acrobatics. I wouldn't take that away from Sanchez as no one's taking great catches away from other QB's he's being measured up against Eli is probably up there as well. I didn't watch all the Giants games last year but just from the ones I saw there were at least 5 picks that hit his own receiver first & then bounced up in the air, into the waiting arms of a defender. His receivers had major butterfingers last year. I don't know who else is up there, but probably because so many drops & muffed catches turned into picks I just remember Eli the most. During one stretch last year it seemed like Eli was being victimized by the tipped ball INT multiple times a week. I just think if people are going to lean so heavily on dropped INTs as a legitimate negative stat, they have to give equal weight to dropped passes as a legitimate positive stat and the two tend to cancel each other out when analyzing a QBs overall accuracy IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleckineau Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 You suck! Max's storm troopers will be visiting you shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mark6sanchez Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 This forum sux --state an opinion and the personal attacks begin ---the trolls are residents in this forum---I read last week about the bickering problem from the mods --yet they let it continue ---few guys with 5000 + posts w/no life get brave behind a computer screen---I posted a reasonable topic and then got attack for the subject matter and get 190 + reply's--- Id love to debate some of these wussys -FACE to FACE and see how brave and aggressive they want to be LOL Dont bother to tell me to go to another forum, Im already gone. s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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