JiFtheOracle Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 I was just looking at some Jets related stuff on the ESPN website and I came across this insider article but only got half of the article because I'm not an insider...but I'm shocked at what they said. Check it. Does anyone have the rest of this article or does anyone have the DVOA for the Jets compared to the league? The 2nd paragraph is alarming. Looks like its a Football Outsiders guy writing the article. http://insider.espn....l-talented-team Don't write off the Jets just yet Issues with the run defense and offense are real, but New York is still talented It's become rather convenient to write off the New York Jets after a 2-3 start that has left them multiple games behind the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. While the Jets' playoff chances have certainly taken a hit, this is still very much the same team that made a run to the AFC Championship Game in the past two seasons. By our DVOA rankings, the Jets come into "Monday Night Football" against the Miami Dolphins as the sixth-best team in the NFL. The Jets' formula since Rex Ryan has taken over -- winning with defense and special teams -- is still largely intact. Their defense ranks third in the NFL by our metrics, and their special-teams units rank first. Since 2009, they have never been below sixth in either category. In other words, as long as Darrelle Revis and New York's group of impressive linebackers is still functioning, this Jets team will be dangerous through the remainder of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Nah dude, that sh*t is right front and center on FO's page every week. Their entire reputation has been built on spreading DVOA and DYAR as an upcoming standard for sites and fans alike, I can't imagine them any time soon them charging for it. It's lame that ESPN is just typing up insider reports based on FO's free data and giving off this impression. I mean this is just outsourcing free sh*t and charging for it. That's where I think PFF messed up by the way. I get why they did it, but they changed to a subscription service way, way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 i can't decide if I'm surprised or not that you didn't know where to get DVOA from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 BTW, it's worth noting that the defensive rankings do get skewed because of the amount of red zone stops that the Jets have gotten. And we're first in ST's, which also pushes us up. Two of the important things in terms of context to take in to account is that the Jets are dead last in the league in 2nd half offense, and the defense is ranked 19th in second half D in close games. Most importantly, FO also uses the Forest Index for estimated wins based on DVOA broken down even further with situational aspects taken into account, and the Jets are ranked 17th in that regard. We're also 25th in statistical variance, which is terrible and without question is directly related to the defense simply being unable to keep up with how bad the offense is. No clue if the Insider article mentions any of this but if you're evaluating FO's team stats, they're extremely important measurables that one has to discuss if we're talking about the existing sample. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 BTW, it's worth noting that the defensive rankings do get skewed because of the amount of red zone stops that the Jets have gotten. And we're first in ST's, which also pushes us up. Two of the important things in terms of context to take in to account is that the Jets are dead last in the league in 2nd half offense, and the defense is ranked 19th in second half D in close games. Most importantly, FO also uses the Forest Index for estimated wins based on DVOA broken down even further with situational aspects taken into account, and the Jets are ranked 17th in that regard. We're also 25th in statistical variance, which is terrible and without question is directly related to the defense simply being unable to keep up with how bad the offense is. No clue if the Insider article mentions any of this but if you're evaluating FO's team stats, they're extremely important measurables that one has to discuss if we're talking about the existing sample. so are we gonna win the SB this year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FloridaJetsFan Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Ehhhh, so does this mean we suck, or not??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 It's become rather convenient to write off the New York Jets after a 2-3 start that has left them multiple games behind the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. While the Jets' playoff chances have certainly taken a hit, this is still very much the same team that made a run to the AFC Championship Game in the past two seasons. By our DVOA rankings, the Jets come into "Monday Night Football" against the Miami Dolphins as the sixth-best team in the NFL. The Jets' formula since Rex Ryan has taken over -- winning with defense and special teams -- is still largely intact. Their defense ranks third in the NFL by our metrics, and their special-teams units rank first. Since 2009, they have never been below sixth in either category. In other words, as long as Darrelle Revis and New York's group of impressive linebackers is still functioning, this Jets team will be dangerous through the remainder of the season. Defense Ryan is a premier defensive mind and he'll continue to find ways to bring pressure and complex concepts into a stellar pass defense. That isn't to say that the defense isn't without question marks, though, as the defensive line has really suffered from injuries and defections. In fact, the Jets have managed that third-place ranking on defense despite ranking 22nd in run defense. Whether the point of reference is the long drive the Patriots had at the end of last week's game to close the Jets out that was built solely on runs, or the 171-yard destruction that Darren McFadden carried out against them in Week 3, it's clear that the Jets have had a rough time stopping the run so far. The good news for New York is that in a passing league, that no longer is as hard to hide (nor as big of a deal) as it would have been 10 or 15 years ago. The better news? The Jets' run defense has been in the top 10 of our DVOA ratings in each of the two previous years of Ryan's tenure. That in no way ensures a rebound, but if anyone knows how to patch problems on a defense, it's Ryan. Offense A more legitimate concern for New York is its offense. Mark Sanchez's statistical profile hasn't lived up to his clutch playoff performances quite yet, but after some steady improvement in his sophomore year, there were hopes that he could take another step forward this season. Instead, Sanchez has thrown five interceptions and lost four fumbles and his minus-4.0 percent DVOA places him 24th in the NFL, behind players like Curtis Painter, Andy Dalton and Rex Grossman. However, while New York's pass offense as a whole does not look pretty, much of the damage done to its overall ratings came solely against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. If you remove that game from the spectrum (it carried a not-for-the-squeamish minus-97.9 percent DVOA), the Jets' pass offense actually has a 37.3 percent rating in all other games this season -- a number that would put them seventh in the NFL. Of course, that game is impossible to unsee, but it was also a combination of factors that is unlikely to occur again. There are very few defenses like the Ravens', very few games that wind up featuring an undrafted rookie center getting destroyed by Haloti Ngata on a play-by-play basis and very few games in which defenses outscore offenses. We're not calling it a total aberration, as Sanchez has had plenty of bad games in the past, but it may not be as telling as you'd think. One awful game does not a season make, and it was a little more understandable given the circumstances. That leads to the real problem the Jets have going forward: They don't seem to trust Sanchez to win the game. While you can make a good argument that they shouldn't trust him given his statistical line over the past two years, the run offense that New York normally relies on is no longer there. With Damien Woody retired, the Jets have had problems at right tackle. Wayne Hunter isn't in Woody's league as a run-blocker and leaves a lot to be desired in pass protection. Missing Nick Mangold for a few weeks also hurt. Throw in the continuing decomposition of LaDainian Tomlinson's skills running next to the enigma that is Shonn Greene, and the Jets are having problems cobbling together the decent run offense they had in 2009 and 2010. If the run game problems aren't correctable, the Jets will have little choice but to abandon the ground-and-pound style of offense they've run the past few years and see what Sanchez can do. They tried doing that a bit at the start of the season, which led to dissension in the ranks and an attempt to return to ground-and-pound against New England. But if "ground-and-pound" continues to mean a couple of Greene carries up the gut that leave them in third-and-long, they're going to have to throw the ball and put the onus on Sanchez to score points. The Jets are, in many ways, just like the Jets of the past two seasons. A three-game losing streak -- all on the road -- to three strong teams (Oakland looks like it counts as one this year) is neither a reason to write them off nor something to be ashamed of. The Jets are a playoff contender on talent alone right now. Their chances of catching Buffalo or New England, however, depend largely on head-to-head results and regression by opponents. Even if Ryan can fix the problems that have popped up early in 2011, the Jets will need help to make another playoff run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 so are we gonna win the SB this year ? By these numbers? If by some miracle the offense can turn it around, they'd have a shot. The D and ST's are certainly capable of it by FO's standards. But offensive DVOA is correlative to wins way, way more so than the other two, so at this point it's a legit concern as to whether or not we're even capable of making the playoffs. The specific metric that ESPN is reporting on (Team Efficiency) doesn't really start correlating to total wins until about the midpoint in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted October 17, 2011 Author Share Posted October 17, 2011 i can't decide if I'm surprised or not that you didn't know where to get DVOA from I was more so looking for the article. I know where to find the DVOA, but admittedly never look at it often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WWWWombat Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I am growing disenchanted with DVOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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