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Young quarterbacks and lofty expectations.


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If manning is really available you go get him period. And yes, i do think Sanchez is more responsible for our poor offense then schotty, but i also understand the guy is very inexperienced and wasn't likely to set the league on fire by now anyway

So you cut him, for a QB that you don't know whether or not he'll even be good again? Thanks, but I'd rather take my chances exploring all options with Sanchez first.

Edited by NYJets90
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So you cut him, for a QB that you don't know if is even going to be good again? Thanks, but I'd rather take my chances exploring all options with Sanchez first.

Oh ok, since you think so... I've seen the error of my ways

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I was thinking the same thing. That single game 1 TD performance in his rookie year was impressive!

Rolling eyes.

Meant second year. He didnt play enough as a rookie for anyone to get any idea. His second year play (which was his "rookie campaign") was right there with the players who typically turn out to be decent pro players, but below the level of the great player he ended up being.

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Meant second year. He didnt play enough as a rookie for anyone to get any idea. His second year play (which was his "rookie campaign") was right there with the players who typically turn out to be decent pro players, but below the level of the great player he ended up being.

The guy didn't throw 60 regular season passes in the NFL going into his 4th season. If the NFL had a minor league system Sanchez would have started in AA rather than the majors.

Edit: I'm a dope.

Edited by SenorGato
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That article made sense, but thats not what Im talking about regarding Sanchez. I realize young QBs are going to have growing pains, they all do,except Marino. But Sanchez doesnt seem to learn from his mistakes, he does the same thing over and over again and its wearing thin. Cant he have ONE solid game: 300yrds 3TD NO INT, This pick 6 sh*t has to stop!

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That article made sense, but thats not what Im talking about regarding Sanchez. I realize young QBs are going to have growing pains, they all do,except Marino. But Sanchez doesnt seem to learn from his mistakes, he does the same thing over and over again and its wearing thin. Cant he have ONE solid game: 300yrds 3TD NO INT, This pick 6 sh*t has to stop!

The INT's could stop with a new system. Most of his INT's come on passes of less then 15 yards, which are plays that the other teams defenses are expecting because thats all we run.

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Meant second year. He didnt play enough as a rookie for anyone to get any idea. His second year play (which was his "rookie campaign") was right there with the players who typically turn out to be decent pro players, but below the level of the great player he ended up being.

That's OK then, what I want to know is what do you actually mean? Specifically? He had a 76 QBR then regressed to 67 in year 3. If there's no basis for comparison then we can just say whatever we want. What are we looking at here to form a comparison?

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If manning is really available you go get him period. And yes, i do think Sanchez is more responsible for our poor offense then schotty, but i also understand the guy is very inexperienced and wasn't likely to set the league on fire by now anyway

Ok hypothetically the Jets give up on Sanchez, and trade two number one picks for Manning, then when he arrives, he isn't the same QB. The neck injury has weakened his arm strength, and he generally has not loyalty to the fans or the Jets, so his heart isn't in it. He basically just rides along with no passion to win. Then what? The Jets are out a QB and two no. 1's. If they were to invest 3 years in a peyton manning experiment, they can wait three more years for Sanchez to develop.

Simplest solution is to shore up the offensive line to improve the running game and pass protection. If you are going to spend it, spend it on something that would help your current QB, if you have given up on Shonn Greene (which i haven't) then get Forte or Peterson. Though I find running backs to be worthless for getting a championship. Look at the teams with the top running backs the past few years, none have reached the super bowl.

Fix the offensive line and things will look worlds better

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That's OK then, what I want to know is what do you actually mean? Specifically? He had a 76 QBR then regressed to 67 in year 3. If there's no basis for comparison then we can just say whatever we want. What are we looking at here to form a comparison?

A few years ago I did a study on QB progressions. For the most part there were very clear trends in the performance of 1st year, 2nd year and 3rd/4th year "rookies". I did it using QBR and to a much lesser extent DVOA(since the DVOA sample size I had was much smaller). The cutoff was 100 pass attempts to qualify for being a "rookie" season. Every QB who turned out to be great that was in Brees' category had a high QBR in their year 2 "rookie campaign" except Steve Young was just dreadful. If I remember correctly the mean player at the time (I originally did this in 2007 and revised it in 2008) was Jason Cambell who was around a 76.5. I think Brees was just slightly higher around 77. If you went from Campbell up there was pretty solid correlation between the QBR that year and how the career turned out. In Brees' case he exceeded expectations while Campbell didnt live up to them. Their range was guys like Randall Cunningham and Ken O'Brien. Pretty decent two time type Pro bowl QBs, but not at the level of a Brett Favre who was a HOFer.

The year 1 true rookie set was different. The correlations were nowhere near as strong. The best chance for success came in year 1---> year 2 improvement levels in QBR. The outliers were basically Marino and Roethlisberger who started so high that there was basically nowhere to go. Just about all the other HOF type talents had 15% or more improvements their second season (a category Sanchez fit into). In terms of DVOA it was that they went from large negatives to being a positive in year 2(I believe Sanchez just made that as well, but Im not 100% certain on that factor). Sanchez was in the lower improvement end which hit the high upside of Troy Aikman (great team surrounding him and he ends up HOF) and lower upside of Bernie Kosar and Neil Lomax (long time starters with pretty solid careers). The downsides were guys like Rodney Peete I believe, who just flop. Again the larger the improvement level the better the career usually ended up- both Mannings, Esiason, Vick, McNabb, Elway, etc...

Most QBs show no improvement in year 3. All you want from the rookies like Mark is to not have a huge regression. DVOA the key was just staying above 0. The Sanchez expectation was about 57-59%, 3400-3460 yards, 22-24 TD 16-18INts. Hes probably going to be right around those numbers at the end of the year. It was unrealistic to expect him to improve beyond what he did last season based on history. The expectations are just so high that you wonder if there is more Peete in him than Aikman.

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