At minimum, the Jets need to replace eight starters this off-season.

[jason423]

The idea of surplus value is why it's generally a bad idea to draft a running back in the first round. The difference between a blue chip tackle and a second-rounder is huge. The difference between a blue chip halfback and a UDFA is pretty small.

Agree on the RB, but disagree on the tackle. The 2nd round over like a 12 year span produced about 20% pro bowlers and some quality starters. The blue chippers in round 1, selected outside of the top 10 produced around 11% pro bowlers and probably a lower percent of decent starters. Im not sure if I still have my spreadsheets on it or if they vanished with my old laptop but the best value picks off the top of my head in the middle of round 1 were interior lineman (though the sample size is really small) and safeties. A notch below would be the DEs (at the time the good finds were all injury prone for whatever reason) and TEs(good players, but also injury prone and never contribute to much in the way of success).

LBs have value as well, but you can find really good ones in the 2nd round. You can find guards as well the ceiling I just dont think was as high.

[jason423]

I like how you compare Holmes to Greg Jennings, Roddy White, and Reggie Wayne and then tell him to go test the market. We may be looking at the next Josh McDaniels here.

Why? Holmes has an extenuating circumstance in that he was 1 party night away from a 16 game suspension and that was not there with any of the other players. The Jets paid him top of the market value anyway and its not likely a team was going to go above what the Jets paid him. So if you are going to pay him top of the market why not see if there is real interest elsewhere and try to save some money?

[slats]

TE1: Let's face it--Dustin Keller just isn't a TE. He's a beefed-up slot WR/H-Back. Every time he lines up in a three-point stance, the offense (as well as Keller) is wasting a play. He doesn't block, he doesn't deal well with physical play at the line of scrimmage, and asking him to do anything but catch intermediate passes is an absolute waste of time. Tannenbaum needs to go out and find a legitimate two-way TE immediately. Jerry Reese picked one off the scrap heap in Jake Ballard, who has helped bail out Eli Manning repeatedly. Not giving Mark a reliable underneath receiver was ludicrous from the start, but now it's time to do it or die.

Assuming that Sanchez is here to stay for at least another year, this should be the priority for the offense. A complete TE would allow the Jets to run a lot of 2 TE sets with Santonio as the lone WR, and Keller in the HB/slot/motion where he's most effective - lessening the need for a #1 type WR. The two TE set is good for the ground & pound, and good for Sanchez in the passing game (another large intermediate target). I can't for the life of me understand why they haven't made it a bigger priority. I've been talking about this since I wanted Brandon Pettigrew when the Jets took Sanchez in the first place. Maybe the Jets just don't like to do the obvious.

A total package RB is the other offensive need. A guy who's a genuine threat in the passing game as well as the running game. Shonn Greene is a one dimensional, second tier back on a good day.

[MTJ06]

I'm fine with drafting an offensive lineman in the first round. The biggest holes are quarterback and receiver, but we're not replacing Sanchez with a rookie and we've only drafted a receiver in the first round once since Keyshawn, we need to up the talent level on offense, and that leaves the line. Specific merit to a guy like DeCastro (I like Glenn too; DeCastro is physically in the mold of the group we put together during the Mangini years, while Glenn has the size Rex seems to prefer and can definitely play tackle too) is pulling and blowing stuff up on the second level which were actually our biggest weaknesses this year as far as the line goes. There really aren't all that many other ways to go in terms of our drafting tendencies. Maybe Poe tests out, maybe there's a linebacker that doesn't give us Gholston flashbacks. Maybe Rex looks at Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham and decides he knows how to pick tight ends. In terms of one guy, today, DeCastro's as good a guess as any.

Be careful what you say, some around here might think you are crazy.

[MTJ06]

Not to speak for Jason, but Holmes has been in two run-first offenses his entire career with relatively young QBs. After watching the Saints receivers running up and down the field last night (only one of whom was a high pick), you have to wonder what Holmes could do in a better system such as that. Granted, it's his fault for signing here in the first place, but he has to watch guys like Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem and wonder what might have been.

The Steelers were more of a balanced offense when Holmes was there, passing for 4100, 3400, 3600 and 4500 yards during his tenure.

The Saints drafted Meachem in the first, Henderson in the 2nd and Jimmy Graham in the 3rd so they definetly spent more than 1 high pick on the group. And lets not forget that they used the #2 overall pick in the draft on Reggie Bush before replacing him with Sproles this year.

I would wonder what Holmes would do if he was surrounded by the same talent/playmakers/weapons that the Saints have on offense.

[MTJ06]

This. Plus he has had two very good seasons. Hes usually high in the average category, especially when you take into account that he is a full time WR rather than just a deep threat. When I went over his contract estimate and compared him statistically with others at similar stages in their careers he was pretty much right there. His 3 year averages were right on pace with Jennings and White (though in fairness they were poor in year 3 and exploded in the contract year which Holmes never did) and Reggie Wayne(who played in a superb passing offense) and well above guys like Roy Williams, who at one time was considered a really good young talent. Sometimes it just doesnt pan out and maybe he ends up more Williams than Jennings, but the body of work just about justified the total cost of the deal. The only thing I think they did wrong was they should have seen what happened if he played the market to see what the drug issues did for his value. I think the way they pounced on him so fast it was pretty obvious that they did not want Braylon on any long term deal.

Which seasons are you considering his 2 very good seasons? 2009 and which other season? Outside of 2009 he has caught between 49-55 passes. Are you looking back at 2007 and his 18.1 YPC?

You still havent answered my questions as far as what teir #1 you think holmes would fit into. Do you think his is capable of being a #1 that you could build your offense around?

[jason423]

Which seasons are you considering his 2 very good seasons? 2009 and which other season? Outside of 2009 he has caught between 49-55 passes. Are you looking back at 2007 and his 18.1 YPC?

You still havent answered my questions as far as what teir #1 you think holmes would fit into. Do you think his is capable of being a #1 that you could build your offense around?

2007 and 2009, though 2007 did not play into his contract. First of all there is no such thing as a WR that you can build your offense around. A WR is so overly dependent on the other players on the field that its near impossible to have the WR be your primary piece. The Vikings tried that with the " Randy Ratio" and it got them nowhere. A WR is more like the final piece of a puzzle.

As for where he ranks? Maybe between 12 and 16. Probably in the same class as DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, AJ Green(who has more upside), and Colston. Since some of those guys above him are on rookie deals its why he is paid like a top player. When they all sign deals his salary will slowly slide down into that range. When players get paid they are getting it based on performance against comparable players at comparable times. He is right in line with Jennings, Williams and White. Its right around where he should have been paid based on his production in the time leading up to the deal. Its different than someone like Bart Scott, who seemed way overpaid based on the market at the time. .

[MTJ06]

2007 and 2009, though 2007 did not play into his contract. First of all there is no such thing as a WR that you can build your offense around. A WR is so overly dependent on the other players on the field that its near impossible to have the WR be your primary piece. The Vikings tried that with the " Randy Ratio" and it got them nowhere. A WR is more like the final piece of a puzzle.

As for where he ranks? Maybe between 12 and 16. Probably in the same class as DeSean Jackson, Vincent Jackson, AJ Green(who has more upside), and Colston. Since some of those guys above him are on rookie deals its why he is paid like a top player. When they all sign deals his salary will slowly slide down into that range. When players get paid they are getting it based on performance against comparable players at comparable times. He is right in line with Jennings, Williams and White. Its right around where he should have been paid based on his production in the time leading up to the deal. Its different than someone like Bart Scott, who seemed way overpaid based on the market at the time. .

I think there are a few you could build your offense around, but very few. I probably should have said passing game or wr group instead. I would place him a little lower probably in the low 20's as I dont see him as a guy who can get open and make plays on his own. It seems as though he needs other receivers around him who draw attention to be successful.

In 2009 with the steelers Ward caught 95 balls, Holmes 79, Miller 76, and Wallace caught 39 for 756yds. He wasnt the #1 but a complimentary part of the offense.

In 2007 he had a high YPC but it was only on 52 rec over 13 games.