If the Jets ignored a need position in the draft

[slats]

Expect? About 1. But if they do things right they could pull in 3 starters and a significant rotational player easily. Now I don't expect that, and it's unfortunate that I assume it'll get screwed up, but it is what it is. They'd have no real problem bringing in at least legit competition for 3 starting spots if they tried to though, hell anyone they draft before round 6 at RT, S, and WR could be better than who'd be starting at those spots if the season began today

I don't think that would be doing things right. If they do things right, that would be extremely lucky. Doing things right -for me- means putting together a draft board and sticking to it. If that means drafting second-stringers, so be it. In the long term, the team will be better off with better second string players (assuming your scouting department has done its job) than lesser guys taken over them to specifically fill a need.

Also, finding three starters and a significant role player will be tough with their picks. They've got three picks in the top 100, and 5 picks in the bottom 50. The last two years they've done well in the fifth round with Conner (probably a reach, actually) and Kerley, but at that point in the draft you're usually grabbing a lump of clay and hoping for the best.

[courtnj18]

I voted safeties. Not because I think Eric Smith is good, its just the opposite but its because he's been a part of the best pass defense in the league over the past 3 seasons. So I think we can get away with not adding more safeties. Plus, I think the Jets resign Leonhard and they've already added Landry.

I agree with you for the most part. Leonhard - yea awesome when healthy. I am also looking forward to Hayden Smith at TE - dude's a beast and will be great for Mark

[Jetsfan80]

I voted WR. We're going to be running the sh** out of the ball and going the gimmick route a lot on offense. Why does # 2 WR matter so much? I can trust the WR by committee of Schillens, Kerley and Turner to be decent while Holmes and Keller get the overwhelming majority of touches in the passing game.

[sirlancemehlot]

Safety. Eric Smith gets a bad rap. Guy led the team in tackles last season and did a solid, though not spectacular job last season. He also was a monster in the playoffs the prior season. He gets hurt by the fact that we have big, slow linebackers and is forced to cover more than he should have to.

[Greenseed4]

great thread

[derp]

I don't think that would be doing things right. If they do things right, that would be extremely lucky. Doing things right -for me- means putting together a draft board and sticking to it. If that means drafting second-stringers, so be it. In the long term, the team will be better off with better second string players (assuming your scouting department has done its job) than lesser guys taken over them to specifically fill a need.

Also, finding three starters and a significant role player will be tough with their picks. They've got three picks in the top 100, and 5 picks in the bottom 50. The last two years they've done well in the fifth round with Conner (probably a reach, actually) and Kerley, but at that point in the draft you're usually grabbing a lump of clay and hoping for the best.

Eh, it's not really that hard to find good value at positions that you need help at. There's a BPA/need argument, but ultimately you have to weigh both I think. And that's why teams tend to weigh their board towards positions that they could use help at. What I'm suggesting isn't "take a OLB in the first round, a WR in the second round, an offensive tackle in the third round, and trade up into the fourth round to get a safety". But in the first round, there's a good chance that the BPA at WR, S, OT, or OLB will be about as good as the overall BPA, but because it's a need the team will have them higher on their draft board. And if the overall BPA is that much better (Trent Richardson), then they'll be higher on the board and likely a starter anyway.

But really, the team's not that good that they shouldn't be able to bring in a bunch of starters or at least significant role players. Guys love DeCastro on this board. Not a need position, but if you draft him at 16 he'd better be starting. If BPA at some point in the first 3 rounds is a RB, I bet they'd start. Any tackle, safety, or WR who's BPA in the first 3 rounds would have a really good chance to start. And the depth at those spots is pretty good in this draft, lots of good WR's and they could bring in a starting caliber guy in round 2-3 and they've been able to hit on safeties in the mid-rounds and have them start year 1 and there's a pretty clear path to starting there.

Plus a player at almost any other position could play a significant role. Who's the #4 corner on the team (that loves corners)? I wouldn't want to take one in round 2 or 3, but if so they'd probably see the field a bunch. The #2 TE who gets used in blocking situations? Same deal there, maybe not too early but if you're going to run a lot of 2 TE sets instead of throwing additional WR's on the field since that position's weak it could work out. Is the starting RB really that good that he couldn't have his job taken away by an explosive player? Could the DE depth be upgraded? DeVito's great but has injury concerns. We know Bart Scott struggled and a ILB would get on the field. A center/guard wouldn't see the field a whole lot and neither would a nose tackle, but outside of that this team needs a lot of starters and a lot of role players. I still think they should be able to help this team considerably this draft without reaching for need.

[Ryno the Jet]

I voted WR. We're going to be running the sh** out of the ball and going the gimmick route a lot on offense. Why does # 2 WR matter so much? I can trust the WR by committee of Schillens, Kerley and Turner to be decent while Holmes and Keller get the overwhelming majority of touches in the passing game.

Agreed. Turner works hard and is a decent pass blocker, so I actually expect him to contribute more this season. We will have to see what we have in Schillens. Kerley was amazing for a 5th round pick. He should have a lock on the slot position, and I would venture to bet he is out there on more than just 3 WR sets. I could see them using him more like a Percy Harvin type going forward.

Remember, Tebow will see as many as 20 snaps a game, so WR will not be a key position in this offense. No way the Jets go WR before the 4th round IMO.

[Bleedin Green]

Safety. Eric Smith gets a bad rap. Guy led the team in tackles last season and did a solid, though not spectacular job last season. He also was a monster in the playoffs the prior season. He gets hurt by the fact that we have big, slow linebackers and is forced to cover more than he should have to.

I can see picking safety simply because the Jets have gotten by for so long with such crap at the position and been fine on defense, but Smith most certainly does not get a bad rap. If anything, the guy has gotten far too much credit, first and foremost for his supposed great tackling. Smith led the team in tackles because he was the #1 player on the Jets defense that opposing teams chose to target. In the one Pats game, what was it like 5 consecutive plays they ran that were targeted directly at Smith, both passing and rushing? It was so bad and blatant that even the commentators pointed it out. The truth is his tackling is mediocre at best and his coverage flat out sucks.

He flails his body around to make these "big hits" that people laud him for while ignoring the fact that those cause him to end up completing whiffing on what should be easy tackles far too often, not to mention far too many personal foul penalties to top it off. That's not to mention the number of times per game he's supposed to be in coverage but just ends up face first in the turf for absolutely no explicable reason whatsoever. He's absolutely horrendously awful.

[Ryno the Jet]

I have a thought to add on the OLB situation as well. When you break down the current defense into units (DBs, LBs, and D-line), it is not as hard to feel confident in the existing situation. For example, the pole shows that most people here feel like the combination of Pace, Thomas, and Maybin can get it done, and I would agree. BUT, I also think that the defense as a whole is missing a key element. They do not have a player that offenses need to put two blockers on to stop. Whether it be in the middle, or off the edge, the Jets need a guy that commands a double team for this D to be complete.

[GATA]

I voted safeties. Not because I think Eric Smith is good, its just the opposite but its because he's been a part of the best pass defense in the league over the past 3 seasons. So I think we can get away with not adding more safeties. Plus, I think the Jets resign Leonhard and they've already added Landry.

Pretty much the same reason I voted for S's

[sirlancemehlot]

To: Bleedin' (sorry but for some reason I can't quote you and the whole site is screwy and wierd.) Where was I? Smith. He's a good tackler. He's like an extra linebacker. His problem is he can't cover worth a damn. He's out of position because he tends to come forward too much and cover from behind. Still, he's not the worst player to have in this D considering our LB's can absolutely not cover, and we've had no pass rush to speak of, giving our DB's a much bigger burden. It's also been said he played with a bum knee all season. My question is this: why does Smith get so much crap when he's obviously been the better player between him Leonhard? Leonhard's tackling has been atrocious and his whiff(s) in the Denver game cost us the W (yet its always Smith who gets blamed for the last TD).

[slats]

But in the first round, there's a good chance that the BPA at WR, S, OT, or OLB will be about as good as the overall BPA, but because it's a need the team will have them higher on their draft board. And if the overall BPA is that much better (Trent Richardson), then they'll be higher on the board and likely a starter anyway.

But really, the team's not that good that they shouldn't be able to bring in a bunch of starters or at least significant role players. Guys love DeCastro on this board. Not a need position, but if you draft him at 16 he'd better be starting. If BPA at some point in the first 3 rounds is a RB, I bet they'd start. Any tackle, safety, or WR who's BPA in the first 3 rounds would have a really good chance to start.

So where we disagree here is your optimism about finding starters.

Vlad Ducasse, second rounder, not a starter. Trade up to the top of the 3rd for Shonn Greene, doesn't start as a rookie. First rounder Kyle Wilson gets thrown to the wolves and is demoted ASAP.

I believe the Jets will take any BAP over a WR or a S - at least in the first round. They might even avoid those positions even if they're at the top of their board. RB's don't start until they know pass protection schemes.

With the Jets picks, it's optimistic to hope for a single starter, and maybe one or two situational guys. With six picks in the sixth and seventh rounds, you're looking mostly at practice squad guys - or outright cuts.

[derp]

So where we disagree here is your optimism about finding starters.

Vlad Ducasse, second rounder, not a starter. Trade up to the top of the 3rd for Shonn Greene, doesn't start as a rookie. First rounder Kyle Wilson gets thrown to the wolves and is demoted ASAP.

I believe the Jets will take any BAP over a WR or a S - at least in the first round. They might even avoid those positions even if they're at the top of their board. RB's don't start until they know pass protection schemes.

With the Jets picks, it's optimistic to hope for a single starter, and maybe one or two situational guys. With six picks in the sixth and seventh rounds, you're looking mostly at practice squad guys - or outright cuts.

I'm not sure that's where we disagree, because I'm certainly not optimistic about actually finding starters. However, given the lack of talent at WR, RT, and S on the roster, if they drafted players relatively early at those positions they could find starters at most if not all of them, along with a significant role player at OLB.

Your examples are mostly examples of bad picks, and guys who weren't brought in to be starters. Greene was drafted after Thomas Jones had a great year IIRC, Ducasse was going to be a project pick and Wilson was a BPA/depth guy on a team that didn't really seemt o have a ton of needs. They've all been underwhelming, yes, but they weren't going to start as rookies regardless (Wilson behind Revis and Cro, Greene behind Jones) or were projects who just completely busted (Ducasse).

I'd imagine they'll trade up, draft a role player at OLB, and maybe draft somebody at one of those spots with another somewhat early pick. So probably about one starter. But they could potentially do much more than that based on where their picks are right now.