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NBA Finals thread: Heat vs Thunder


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And if I'm wrong about a NBA Finals prediction on the football message board I post on, call me crazy but I don't think I'll be losing sleep over it.

See, I think you WILL lose sleep. I think you'll be tossing and turning while saying things like "Why Dwayne, why?" and "That f***er 80 and that queer JiF were right!"

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I think what also plays a major role is that James has had to play mega minutes in the playoffs while the Thunder are well rested and last night the team was again in that trap of sit and watch Lebron try to do something mode. By the time they make the defensive switch James is spent and the long defender pretty much boxes him up. Its a reason why James was more or less pleading after the game for the team to lengthen the bench rather than play 6 guys all game long.

Yeah, I got home last night and looked at the minutes on the box score and just thought, "wait, really?"

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Solid article by Haberstroh on last night. Me thinks we're going to be seeing a lot more of James on Durant tomorrow.

As basketball observers, we tend to undergo a certain postgame ritual of peering at the box score and identifying a singular reason that explains the outcome of a game. But basketball is a complicated web of moving parts, and sometimes a losing team's diagnosis isn't so crystal clear.

In Game 1, however, the reason why the Heat lost comes down to this: The Thunder pounced on the Heat in the open court, scoring 24 fast-break points to the Heat's four. This was the first time in Miami's "Big Three" era that it played in a game in which it was outscored by 20 points in that column.

It all starts there. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra implemented his pace-and-space high-octane offense about seven months ago, but after Tuesday, it felt more like seven years ago. The Heat did not play especially well in the opening game of the series, but it's the way they played that should be most concerning.

With LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in the cockpit, this is a team that normally thrives in the open court and punishes opponents when they turn the ball over. But on Tuesday night, the Heat forced just two turnovers in the second half and didn't score a fast-break point after halftime. The offense looked stagnant and increasingly reliant on uninspired jumpers.

Such is the vicious cycle for the Heat. As the saying goes, a good offense starts with good defense. Youth basketball coaches everywhere should use film from Game 1 as an instructional video on how defense and offense go hand-in-hand. What's the hardest way to get out in transition? By taking the ball out of the opponent's basket. The Heat needed to create triggers for their offense, but they couldn't stop the Thunder from getting what they wanted. According to NBA.com's John Schuhmann, the Thunder scored on 21 of their final 29 possessions. Eight stops in 29 possessions won't cut it.

"We have to get stops," Spoelstra said. "When we're not defending, we don't get opportunities in the open court, and then when we don't attack, we don't get as many opportunities in the paint or the free throw line. They're fast, they're explosive, so we'll have to adjust to that speed."

Spoelstra's adjustments in Game 2 will be tougher in this series against the Thunder than the aging Celtics. The Thunder are better, younger and, as Spoelstra said, more explosive than a Celtics team that was also hobbled by injuries.

As the Heat are finding out, stops are harder to come by against the scorching Thunder offense, but stops are where it all starts. First you make a defensive stand, then you get out on the move in transition, and the inertia carries the offense toward the rim. If you don't get stops, the easy buckets are harder to come by and settling for a jumper becomes that much more tempting.

After the game, Spoelstra pointed to the 50-50 balls going the Thunder's way as a primary reason why the Heat weren't able to get stops, but the unlucky results may been more about energy than effort. James already went public with a desire to get him and Wade more rest, and the Heat will need that duo to be fully energized in Game 2, if only because they're the two best options at slowing down Durant and Westbrook.

The thing is, James barely even guarded Durant in Game 1 even though the OKC star was mostly neutralized this season against the Heat when James was his primary defender. According to ESPN Stats & Info, James guarded Durant on only five plays in Game 1, which led to two missed shots and two turnovers. When guarded by a host of defenders led by Shane Battier, Durant scored 34 points and shot 12-for-18 from the floor without turning the ball over once. In fact, all of Durant's 10 turnovers against the Heat have come while James was the primary defender.

This comes full circle. The Heat were desperate for turnovers and stops in Game 1, but they struggled to get any without James guarding Durant. Spoelstra's decision to save James' energy and assign him to guard everyone else on Oklahoma City may have done more harm than good. The stops were nowhere to be found, and Durant ended up making a living at the free throw line.

It's not sufficient to look at the fast-break disparity in the box score and simply say the Heat need to run more. The Heat can't play their brand of basketball unless they get stops, and they're not going to find it easy to explode in transition if they have their best perimeter defender guarding Perkins -- a point made that was also made clear by former NBA player Speedy Claxton.

With the game of basketball, it's all interconnected. The domino effect of getting stops should propel the Heat to a more efficient style of play in transition compared to the half-court game. All those contested jumpers from James and Wade might slowly disappear if they started going downhill in the open court, and thus, the Thunder might not have as many long rebounds to spark their own fast breaks.

The key to the Heat getting back on track in Game 2 is turning their defense into offense. The bigger question is whether they can defend the Thunder. So far, no team has.

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He'll never live this down. lol.

He's got me on ignore, so I dont think he sees what I post (not sure how that feature works) but I respond anyway because I <3 him even though he hates me. But yeah, I almost spit my coffee on my keyboard reading that...and then Durant goes out and scores 17pts in the 4th while I'm not even sure if LeBron scored until the game was all but put away by the Thunder.

RJF is in love with LeBron...he's a bit delusional about him to say the least. Its actually why he hates me now. I was mean to him about LeBron one day when I said he wasnt clutch.

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This sounds terrifying actually.

It's the perfect storm of suckage for you the last week or so, RJF. The Devils get steamrolled, the Mets get swept, the Bradly-Pacman disgrace, and now Wade lets you down.

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It's the perfect storm of suckage for you the last week or so, RJF. The Devils get steamrolled, the Mets get swept, the Bradly-Pacman disgrace, and now Wade lets you down.

No, not that. I live in Chicago dude. The thought of me being in my bed and screaming out the name Dwayne in terror means someone finally figured out a way to break into my building.

Edit: It just occurred to me that I'd have absolutely no way of knowing what the burglar's name is in this hypothetical scenario. Unless he introduced himself to me, but I don't think burglars do that. Whatever, stop judging me.

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No, not that. I live in Chicago dude. The thought of me being in my bed and screaming out the name Dwayne in terror means someone finally figured out a way to break into my building.

Edit: It just occurred to me that I'd have absolutely no way of knowing what the burglar's name is in this hypothetical scenario. Unless he introduced himself to me, but I don't think burglars do that. Whatever, stop judging me.

You live in Chicago? When did that happen?

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Last summer actually, The University of Illinois decided I was fit to teach the college kids of America and get a doctorate. In return I get to still be an alcoholic and wear sneakers to work. Not the worst gig I must say.

Seriously?!!? Cool.

You are officially Prof. RJF to me now. What's your doctorate in and what do you teach?

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No, not that. I live in Chicago dude. The thought of me being in my bed and screaming out the name Dwayne in terror means someone finally figured out a way to break into my building.

Edit: It just occurred to me that I'd have absolutely no way of knowing what the burglar's name is in this hypothetical scenario. Unless he introduced himself to me, but I don't think burglars do that. Whatever, stop judging me.

That or the sexual predator tells you to call out his name. Either or..a haunting vision nevertheless.

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I tell ya the one thing I miss the most when I watch the Thunder play and that's Squatch. Rumble is okay, but squatch was just badass. I was by no means a big Sonics fan, but I remember being in the 3rd grade or so when he was unveiled and my buddy was him for halloween. Good times.

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Point of note for the first 5+ minutes. Lebron has literally not left Durant's side once on the defensive end. Even when they pop or roll out and the book says he's supposed to kick over, he hasn't moved. Interesting, it'll be interesting to see if that holds once Harden comes in because that's a huge sacrifice when it comes to your best defender. Wade is also looking pretty awesome so far.

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That Battier gift might be huge for the Heat. OKCs big three are on fire though. Looks as if it could be a really exciting finish.

Insane finish. Is Miami trying to go into OT? They had Durant in position so many times to drive right at and didn't even bother. They had him right where they wanted at 10 minutes to go and just threw out the playbook.

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Insane finish. Is Miami trying to go into OT? They had Durant in position so many times to drive right at and didn't even bother. They had him right where they wanted at 10 minutes to go and just threw out the playbook.

They are a disaster down the stretch of a close game. i dont think coaching means alot but those meltdowns at the end are on the coach. you have to say to attack Durant there and I dont think he tells them anything. Im surprised they didnt call a foul at the end there. Durant got around and he basically used an armbar to hold Durant up. i guess i could see the non-call more if 2 FTs can win rather than tie, but so it goes in the NBA. If he stays healthy Durant is going to go down as the best player in the league. His 4th quarters in these last two games are basically unheard of. you could see him even getting a little pissed when Westbrook had those two or three really bad possessions in a row with Durant wide open and feeling it.

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They are a disaster down the stretch of a close game. i dont think coaching means alot but those meltdowns at the end are on the coach. you have to say to attack Durant there and I dont think he tells them anything. Im surprised they didnt call a foul at the end there. Durant got around and he basically used an armbar to hold Durant up. i guess i could see the non-call more if 2 FTs can win rather than tie, but so it goes in the NBA. If he stays healthy Durant is going to go down as the best player in the league. His 4th quarters in these last two games are basically unheard of. you could see him even getting a little pissed when Westbrook had those two or three really bad possessions in a row with Durant wide open and feeling it.

So stupid. They should have won that game by at least ten. There was one play at the end where Lebron had Sefalofsha on him up top and Durant standing right in prime real estate on the right side, 10 times out of 10 you go right at that when the guy has 5 effing fouls. Can't believe he passed that up. Dumbass. That was some 4th by Durant, holy crap.

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Has a team ever won a title and immediately fired their head coach? Because that's what the Heat need to do.

(Heat huddle at the beginning of the 4th)

Wade: Coach, this is working crazy good. We should definitely keep Lebron on Durant, set screens directly at him to get him to foul out, and stick to the gameplan with transition D right?

Spoelstra: No, no, let's go back to what we did in game 1. Let's mix it up on Durant and stick to shots on the perimeter.

Bosh: Sounds good to me.

Wade: No, wait, what? Why?

Spoelstra: JUST DO IT!

(fin)

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(Heat huddle at the beginning of the 4th)

Wade: Coach, this is working crazy good. We should definitely keep Lebron on Durant, set screens directly at him to get him to foul out, and stick to the gameplan with transition D right?

Spoelstra: No, no, let's go back to what we did in game 1. Let's mix it up on Durant and stick to shots on the perimeter.

Bosh: Sounds good to me.

Wade: No, wait, what? Why?

Spoelstra: JUST DO IT!

(fin)

That's hysterical, but scary plausible.

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After all that the refs win the game for LeBron as he choked on d and made a sloppy foul that went uncalled... He is the anti-Jordan... Just isn't clutch.

what about those free throws at the end of game 2?

not clutch?

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There's no way Stern and his officiating stormtroopers don't make this go to seven games. This whole series will be spent waiting for increasingly absurd calls and non-calls in the last ninety seconds. Should be fun, in that WWE sort of way.

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