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2016 WS Champions/Cubs Thread


SenorGato

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Ooooh yeeeess please:

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The Marlins and agent Scott Boras appear unlikely to negotiate an extension for ace Jose Fernandez early in the offseason, according to the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports the team could shop the right-hander as a result. Several of the majors’ high-payroll clubs, including the DodgersRed SoxYankees andCubs, would have interest in acquiring and extending Fernandez, per Cafardo. The 24-year-old is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 campaign and has thrown a career-high 174 1/3 innings this season. Along the way, Fernandez has posted dazzling numbers – 2.99 ERA, 12.44 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 – which has been the norm since he debuted in 2013.

- MLBTR

Fernandez is the guy I'm waiting for as far as ML pitcher trades. Getting him for his ages 25 and 26 seasons would be massive. Stuff like this is why I say the ball has only begun to roll for the Cubs. Stanton and Fernandez in a blockbuster type trade is basically my dream offseason.

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7 hours ago, NJ said:

Props to The Northsiders for putting together a great regular season. 

That said - nobody gives a white rats rear end about the Central Division Championship as it means very little other than it's punched ticket to the rest of the dance.

The hard work is in front of us - lots of time to celebrate if we win some jewelry - now's not that time.  

I'd say dominating the regular season in the way that they did - well above average to elite across the board - means a whole lot for future seasons when combined with the age and pedigree of the roster. The periphs with this young lineup alone are so promising.

A WS would be convenient as it would end all the traditional Lovable Losers crap and be that slumpbuster, but keep building dominant teams like this and rings are inevitable.

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1 hour ago, SenorGato said:

Ooooh yeeeess please:

- MLBTR

Fernandez is the guy I'm waiting for as far as ML pitcher trades. Getting him for his ages 25 and 26 seasons would be massive. Stuff like this is why I say the ball has only begun to roll for the Cubs. Stanton and Fernandez in a blockbuster type trade is basically my dream offseason.

Interesting change of pace.

In providing your "thoughts" on the Mets young elite staff you routinely seemed to be against having anything to do with SP's who have undergone TJ surgery when it comes to giving up resources (prospects or $$$) for them.  Something I am also leaning more towards  after having watched all the SP injuries to the Mets and the rest of MLB this season this season. 

Trading a basketful of minor league prospects along with possibly some major league talent for Fernandez, who has undergone TJ surgery, would seem to indicate that regular season wins has changed your thoughts on how a franchise should be built and treat their trade chips/dollars from a "risk" perspective.

Getting both Stanton and Fernandez is indeed a dream and likely too expensive a trade for any franchise to pull off in one deal.

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6 hours ago, GimmeShelter said:

Interesting change of pace.

In providing your "thoughts" on the Mets young elite staff you routinely seemed to be against having anything to do with SP's who have undergone TJ surgery when it comes to giving up resources (prospects or $$$) for them.  Something I am also leaning more towards  after having watched all the SP injuries to the Mets and the rest of MLB this season this season. 

Trading a basketful of minor league prospects along with possibly some major league talent for Fernandez, who has undergone TJ surgery, would seem to indicate that regular season wins has changed your thoughts on how a franchise should be built and treat their trade chips/dollars from a "risk" perspective.

Getting both Stanton and Fernandez is indeed a dream and likely too expensive a trade for any franchise to pull off in one deal.

- By my count, one (Fernandez) is a smaller number than four (Harvey, DeGrom, Matz, Wheeler). Check my math on that  THO jic. I think an exception can be made for a guy that is statistically is as dominant as anyone in a per inning basis. 

- I have no idea how to translate that second sentence, but no my thoughts are the same - my goal is to see the Cubs continue to field dominant teams. Fernandez is a dominant player.

- I believe it's doable. Cubs have spent five years stockpiling and are as prepped as any franchise in baseball for that kind of blockbuster. 

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1 hour ago, SenorGato said:

- By my count, one (Fernandez) is a smaller number than four

Fernandez plus Lackey would equal two by my count....check me on that though. Then you have Lester's bone chips which has not been an issue but could require rectifying at any time due to just being the nature of the beast. 

I agree Fernandez is worth the shot.

Giving up both Fernandez and Stanton in the same trade would be foolish by Florida from a return perspective and is likely just slow September non news. It's also improbable that the Cubs or any team (Texas, Boston) for that matter, would have the prospects to obtain both in the same deal or off season.  Either of those players would likely take a mix of both Major and Minor League "talent".

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1 hour ago, GimmeShelter said:

Fernandez plus Lackey would equal two by my count....check me on that though. Then you have Lester's bone chips which has not been an issue but could require rectifying at any time due to just being the nature of the beast. 

I agree Fernandez is worth the shot.

Giving up both Fernandez and Stanton in the same trade would be foolish by Florida from a return perspective and is likely just slow September non news. It's also improbable that the Cubs or any team (Texas, Boston) for that matter, would have the prospects to obtain both in the same deal or off season.  Either of those players would likely take a mix of both Major and Minor League "talent".

Lackey is like 80 and not an outright pivotal piece in 2017. With Arrieta, Lester, Fernandez, and Hendricks, he is just looked at as a strong 5th starter. 

Lester's bone chips have been around long before he was a Cub, and he has zero significant indicators of injury beyond those.

Giving up Fernandez and Stanton in the same deal could give Florida both the flexibility and quantity of young talent they need to maybe get over the hump. Not so different than when they dealt their previous offseason signings to the Blue Jays really or when the Red Sox traded Gonzalez and friends to the Dodgers.

BTW - my "thoughts" on the Mets' pitching staff were "dead on." Harvey, DeGrom, Wheeler, and Matz all suffered a serious setback and missed significant time this year.

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47 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

BTW - my "thoughts" on the Mets' pitching staff were "dead on."

Yep the Mets staff has been hit with injuries but only Wheeler's setback has been diagnosed as being related to having previously undergone TJ surgery. At least from what I've read. Can a case be made that once a pitcher has TJ surgery he might be more prone to arm injuries?...sure but that would also include Jose Fernandez.  Who knows what the remedy is to avoid all these pitching injuries in MLB but it's not confined to just the Mets organization or way of doing things. Even so, a WC birth is still possible.

Throwing out the highly unlikely scenario of Stanton and Fernandez (who are already young & proven HOF potential talent) being dealt in the same deal does not equate to anything the Marlins have ever done before nor is it similar to the RSox getting rid of a bunch of bad contracts of players on the latter sides of their careers in my opinion.  It's more of a case of wishful thinking because you want to make it so as a Cubs fan.

Anyway, Stanton is signed for forever and Fernandez not a FA until 2019 so likely just a slow news week item.  Marlins went for it this year at the deadline before Stanton's injury so I'd be surprised if they abandon this current  team that quickly.  It's possible I guess.

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15 minutes ago, GimmeShelter said:

sure but that would also include Jose Fernandez.  

Throwing out the highly unlikely scenario of Stanton and Fernandez (who are already young & proven HOF potential talent) being dealt in the same deal does not equate to anything the Marlins have ever done before nor is it similar to the RSox getting rid of a bunch of bad contracts of players on the latter sides of their careers in my opinion.  It's more of a case of wishful thinking because you want to make it so as a Cubs fan.

Anyway, Stanton is signed for forever and Fernandez not a FA until 2019 so likely just a slow news week item.  Marlins went for it this year at the deadline before Stanton's injury so I'd be surprised if they abandon this current  team that quickly.  It's possible I guess.

- Sure, and one young TJ'd arm is still less than 4.

- Yes, there is wishful thinking involved - that is why it's called my dream offseason. Similar is not the same. Your confusing the two is causing the dissonance here. They're the two most expensive players, far and away, on the traditionally thrifty Marlins. Flexibilty, both roster and payroll, is exactly why they sold to the Blue Jays the first time and why the Red Sox sold to the Dodgers. Fernandez will be hitting arb this year and make a significant leap in salary. Stanton will jump from less than $10 million to $14.5 million in 2017 to $25+ million in 2018. He's missed at least 20% of the season in 4 of the past 5 years. 

- Stanton has an opt out in 2020 at 30.

- The Marlins went for it and missed. Last time they did that they made that blockbuster, big contract trade with the Blue Jays. They've had Stanton and Fernandez on the roster with this same core (Yelich, Ozuna, Realmuto, etc) for multiple seasons. It has gone nowhere.

- Stanton and Fernandez trade rumors have been stirring forever, this isn't just a September thing. This is not true of say - the Cubs platooning Heyward in October. These are neither the same nor similar.

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Tommy La Stella since coming back to the team on 8/31:

6 for 26 (2 of those 6 were bloops that I saw)  - .230

RBI's - 1

Runs Scored - 2

Don't have breakdown of his fielding since the sent down to AAA tantrum - but on the year he's 4 errors on 42 chances.

Looks like he'd have been better off playing the game and honing his skills in Iowa than jerking off in his batting cage in North Jersey.

Hope they don't bring him into the post season.

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AZPhil has 81 guys down for Arizona instructs, including these DSL players....:

Faustino Carrera LHP - US debut
Hector Garica RHP
Alfredo Colorado RHP - US debut
Faustino Guerrero RHP - US debut
Brailyn Marquez LHP - US debut
Carlos Ocampo RHP - US debut
Yunior Perez RHP - US debut
Eury Ramos RHP 
Miguel Amaya C
Aramis Ademan SS
Rafael Narea SS
Luis Diaz IF 
Yonathan Perlaza
Jose Gutierrez CF/OF - US debut 
Fernando Kelli CF/OF - US debut  
Abraham Rodriguez LF/1B
Jonathan Sierra OF 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/09192016/ ... ckets-mesa

Pleasant surprise with Yunior Perez since he missed time, he and Ocampo are the RHs that most interest me with Garcia just behind. Perez was the hardest throwing 16 YO 7/2 IFA past year according go Kiley McDaniel and already grew to 6'4" with the Cubs.  I'm less familiar about the existence of the other RHPs. Kelli is a pleasant surprise, another switch hitter. Gutierrez was one I was hoping would make it. He switch hits and showed a variety of skills durng the DSL season. The only guy I expected there and isn't is Orian Nunez. I expect one of Carrera or Marquez to be the best SP in the organization by 2018. 

Other 2015 IFAs include Kwang Ming Kwon and Jose Albertos, who missed most of the season with an elbow situation, avoided surgery, and was generating lots of buzz before that.

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1 hour ago, SenorGato said:

AZPhil has 81 guys down for Arizona instructs, including these DSL players....:

Faustino Carrera LHP - US debut
Hector Garica RHP
Alfredo Colorado RHP - US debut
Faustino Guerrero RHP - US debut
Brailyn Marquez LHP - US debut
Carlos Ocampo RHP - US debut
Yunior Perez RHP - US debut
Eury Ramos RHP 
Miguel Amaya C
Aramis Ademan SS
Rafael Narea SS
Luis Diaz IF 
Yonathan Perlaza
Jose Gutierrez CF/OF - US debut 
Fernando Kelli CF/OF - US debut  
Abraham Rodriguez LF/1B
Jonathan Sierra OF 

http://www.thecubreporter.com/09192016/ ... ckets-mesa

Pleasant surprise with Yunior Perez since he missed time, he and Ocampo are the RHs that most interest me with Garcia just behind. Perez was the hardest throwing 16 YO 7/2 IFA past year according go Kiley McDaniel and already grew to 6'4" with the Cubs.  I'm less familiar about the existence of the other RHPs. Kelli is a pleasant surprise, another switch hitter. Gutierrez was one I was hoping would make it. He switch hits and showed a variety of skills durng the DSL season. The only guy I expected there and isn't is Orian Nunez. I expect one of Carrera or Marquez to be the best SP in the organization by 2018. 

Other 2015 IFAs include Kwang Ming Kwon and Jose Albertos, who missed most of the season with an elbow situation, avoided surgery, and was generating lots of buzz before that.

That list sounds like a bunch of Chilean coal miners .

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On 9/15/2016 at 6:40 PM, SenorGato said:

Looks like the trolls got the first one. That sucks.

The good thing is that thread spanned the rebuild and got only to the tip of the iceberg as far as how good this franchise is set up to be for a long time. Right now they're set up to be the cream of the crop for the the next 3 years, still in that hunt over the next 5, and will likely be the richest team in baseball at the end of the decade when they will cash in on media rights. This franchise is here to stay, and so long as they continue to field elite teams the rings will come.

Magic number for 2016 is 1

I just saw this. Comical. You launch a tirade and then say the trolls got it. Nice.

This is being merged with the original. A note to everyone, avoid personal attacks.

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2 hours ago, Maxman said:

I just saw this. Comical. You launch a tirade and then say the trolls got it. Nice.

I didn't just randomly launch a tirade at an innocent. This thread legitimately got trolled througout almost this whole ML season, covering some dozen+ pages here, by a small group of posters who like another baseball team. Their goal was to antagonize and piss me off, providing any insight or even baseball content got thrown out the door, and it worked really, really well.

The post just above yours is on the higher end of quality provided by one of that group, funnily enough the most tolerable one, who chose/choose to comment in this thread solely with the hopes of antagonising. 

Hopefully the whole situation is over with. 

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Here's a solid read on Heyward's season from Beyond the Box Score. 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/9/16/12941390/jason-heyward-cubs-contract-defense-value

Quote

 

It all circles back to Heyward’s contract. His poor performance offensively has undoubtedly cast uncertainty over signing players like him to similar deals. Whether this is warranted, I’m not certain. Time will have to tell, but I think we can glean some insight on the thought process going forward with glove-heavy players and what it means for Heyward.

Fielding is one of the more dependable skill sets that a baseball player can carry. Deterioration of fielding ability generally doesn’t happen as quickly other skills. When handing out these long term deals, it adds a layer of safety. Even with Heyward’s egregiously bad season at the plate, he’s still a positive fWAR player. Don’t get me wrong, if he performs like this through the duration of this deal, it’s going to — justifiably — be looked at as a failure. But, we see the level where someone has to sit offensively from both right field and shortstop to fall to near-replacement player value. To juxtapose that, you can see the huge difference that providing little to no offensive value, rather than making a strong negative impact, makes. This is an illustration of a player just hitting “enough”.

Where we sit with Heyward is essentially his floor. With his defensive value, we can expect him to impact the game strongly with his glove for years to come. Whether or not he’s the same hitter anymore is up for debate; after all, there’s legitimate gripe about how his swing has changed. But, I think it’s hard to think it will get worse.

In an article about defensive value, it’s worth bringing up the standing of public defensive metrics. The statistics have gotten better, but we still haven’t settled into a position where we’re as confident in them as we are pitching and hitting metrics. However, due to more advanced technology with Statcast and the robust scouting information teams have, they can alleviate most of the questions around defensive metrics teams can draw more certain conclusions. That doesn’t exactly help the public argument, but it’s still an argument worth having.

You could not predict Heyward’s precipitous offensive fall or whether it will continue beyond this year. You can, however, make a reasonable assumption that this might just be the worst of it.

 

It basically touches on why I am not particularly upset about this season. If he sh*ts the bed the rest of the contract that obviously changes the story, but my guess is that this is the worst of it. 

I'm even holding out hope he goes all Carlos Beltran 2005 on their asses during the playoffs.

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Speaking of - I'm liking the contact and PAs Heyward is having this week. I'm not sure I can handle how awesome this team is if Heyward finally joins the party and starts hitting like he can, but I am willing to find out. It feels like he's finally making hard contact this season after previous flirtations with a turnaround were built around bloopers. 

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6 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Delusions: Defined as having a years-long discussion with yourself about minor league baseball, then insulting a man'a family when he busts your balls about it. 

Yeah, that's not what a delusion is. From someone like you this comes off as nothing more than your usual sanctimonious drivel.

Delusions: Believing having a family member participate in HS baseball somehow gives you any actual knowledge or insight into the players in the ML draft and minor league baseball prospects. 

Delusions: Believing that guy was just busting balls rather than full out trolling.

 

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9 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

...he said as he attempted to return back to talking to himself. 

True, this post must be intended for the opera crowd hanging on your narrative while the Kris Bryant post in the Cubs thread was for one poster only. So what's the deal here - you're next up in the rotation to troll this thread? 

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On September 21, 2016 at 7:35 PM, SenorGato said:

Here's a solid read on Heyward's season from Beyond the Box Score. 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/9/16/12941390/jason-heyward-cubs-contract-defense-value

It basically touches on why I am not particularly upset about this season. If he sh*ts the bed the rest of the contract that obviously changes the story, but my guess is that this is the worst of it. 

I'm even holding out hope he goes all Carlos Beltran 2005 on their asses during the playoffs.

What I read today is that Heyward's 2016 WAR is 1.0. His 2016 salary of $15m was valued at, based on performance at $8.3m.If I were Cubs management, that would worry me a little. Of course all teams have players like that, and all clubs worry about those types of problems. 

Counter Heyward's performance to Daniel Murphy, who has a WAR of 5.6, and his $8m salary is valued at $44.8m.

 

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1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

What I read today is that Heyward's 2016 WAR is 1.0. His 2016 salary of $15m was valued at, based on performance at $8.3m.If I were Cubs management, that would worry me a little. Of course all teams have players like that, and all clubs worry about those types of problems. 

Counter Heyward's performance to Daniel Murphy, who has a WAR of 5.6, and his $8m salary is valued at $44.8m.

 

Yeah, no one's worried about Heyward's season because of $/WAR. It's a given that that non-performance number is going to look bad as all the numbers are bad. There is zero predictive value there, and a typical Heyward season is worth close to $40 million by that measure. From there, $/WAR is higher through FA - closer to $10 or even $12 million than $8 million.

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25 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Yeah, no one's worried about Heyward's season because of $/WAR. It's a given that that non-performance number is going to look bad as all the numbers are bad. There is zero predictive value there, and a typical Heyward season is worth close to $40 million by that measure. From there, $/WAR is higher through FA - closer to $10 or even $12 million than $8 million.

If you want to take the positive spin on that, I understand. As you well know not everyone will see it that way.

Hey, want to correct a characterization you have implied on me-You said that I think, because my son plays travel ball at a competitive level, that makes me an expert on evaluating young baseball talent. Never said that. Said I was around the process and see it in action. That is all.

I am sure I can tell you what players look good and why-but anyone with an elementary knowledge can tell you that. 

I have talked to baseball people who do evaluate talent. 3 mlb evaluators and probably 25 college recruiters. Does that make my sample size of talking to those folks large? Of course not. But, I have talked to them about the proliferation of numbers and using those to evaluate talent. And, almost to a man, they say that while the numbers help give measurement to what they see, that the "boots on the ground" process of looking at talent and giving it the eye ball test is the most important. Is that a scientific study there? Of course not. But it does reflect my core belief of seeing talent, getting to know talent, rather than going by numbers to evaluate. That is just me.

Hey, are you going to be in Fort Myers over Columbus Day? PG is having its Underclass WWBA championships. It is a great place to see high school talent and get a sense of it. Promise I will buy you a beer and maybe even lunch, if you are kind.

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3 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

Yeah, I figured you were here for nonsense. There was no positive spin there. 

You know what, you are without any stimulating qualities that promote positive discussion.

There was nothing in that post that was to meant to provoke. You could have shared equal counter, but you chose not to. As always you took the low road.

I will go back to just looking at your posts, chuckling to myself, and realizing that "there is a guy that wishes he had some basis of knowledge of which he talks about, but it remains a wish". 

Continue as you were. 

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9 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

You know what, you are without any stimulating qualities that promote positive discussion.

There was nothing in that post that was to meant to provoke. You could have shared equal counter, but you chose not to. As always you took the low road.

I will go back to just looking at your posts, chuckling to myself, and realizing that "there is a guy that wishes he had some basis of knowledge of which he talks about, but it remains a wish". 

Continue as you were. 

Nah, I undersold your last post Scotty D. I assumed as you blathered on about baseball numbers not telling the whole story - something no one believes in 2016 anyway - that you were in for another troll. My edit came too late. 

Baseball numbers tell ALOT. A number like $/WAR, which is crude at best, tells you nothing more relevant than what many other better stats can tell. Heyward's season does not look good using $/WAR becsuse it does not look good using many other far more important numbers.

I'm sure you do chuckle, would not surprise me, but I've been on point on pretty much everything I've said this year and last. Fact is, I know what I'm talking about and it shows.

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12 minutes ago, SenorGato said:

There was no positive spin there. There's dozens of better numbers that are more worrisome about Heyward's season than $/WAR, a mediocre at best measure 

I've talked to scouts, followed the draft, read books, played ball into college, and even participated in the ML Scouting School last fall

Apologize for that post then. That is cool stuff you provide. Can I ask what level of college? D1, D2 or D3? Position player or pitcher?My son is currently making these choices and we are trying to figure it out.

Have you been around PG at all?

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10 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Apologize for that post then. That is cool stuff you provide. Can I ask what level of college? D1, D2 or D3? Position player or pitcher?My son is currently making these choices and we are trying to figure it out.

Have you been around PG at all?

I know the stuff I provide is cool, but appreciate the compliment for what it is. Like I said, I know baseball. I also don't like sharing personal information on message boards - just in that post there's too much - particularly with people who choose to act like you've acted throughout the year. I will say I pitched, was not a prospect, and did not attend PG events. I would suggest your son hit as you can always go to the mound if the arm is there, hitting requires the reps. Plus young pitchers drop like flies - as the current Mets or early 2000s Cubs show.

 

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So the one question I had about Willson Contreras was his defense as a catcher - particularly framing. Both BP and Statcorner have him as a positive value framer, a skill that tends to stabilize quickly statistically. Yay

----

:http://2080baseball.com/2016/09/ohtani- ... ll-listen/
 
In fact, the Cubs could be the best fit for Ohtani to do both, and much of that has to do with manager Joe Maddon, and his ability to manage just about any scenario. The clubhouse culture that team president Theo Epstein and Maddon have created is a great fit for almost any player, plus Ohtani would come in surrounded by a lot of other young, high-end talent and not bear the weight of being the face of the franchise. On top of that, both Epstein and Maddon have experience with Asian players making the transition to the U.S.— with Maddon getting the absolute best out of second baseman Aki Iwamura during his years in Tampa, and Epstein maneuvering his way through the up and downs of Matsuzaka’s tenure in Boston from 2007-12. Yes, that would mean Ohtani won’t be taking advantage of the DH option in the A.L., but if anyone can figure out how to keep him productive on the mound, at the dish, and in the field it’s Joe Maddon.
 
 
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