2016 WS Champions/Cubs Thread

[SenorGato]

1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

You support empty claims, with empty validation and claims.

Another gem lol. This guy never fails to be hilariously bad. You're gold Scotty! Gold!

I really, really wish you weren't full of it, as usual, and that bye is legit. 6+ months in THO, I will lean towards wishful thinking on my end.

 

[SenorGato]

My wish list of trade SPs:

Sale
Quintana
Stroman 
Berrios
Norris
Nola
Walker
J. Gray
E. Rodriguez
R. Stephenson
Archer
Honeywell
Bauer
Snell
Beede
McCullers?
Teheran?
Odorizzi?
Ventura
Tanaka?
Greinke?
Severino
Urias
A. Sanchez
Gauman
Glasnow
Gonsalves 
Foltynewicz?

Bradley

Ray

Most of these guys are going nowhere. Prices, interest, and risks vary, but I would take any one or more of the bunch. I might be missing a couple that I would list otherwise.

----

A few pitchers I think have a shot at being outstanding relievers:

Enny Romero (LHP, Rays): Former top prospect, former starter, averaged 96+ on the fastball this year, ~25% K rate this year, ~13% swinging strikes, ~10% whiffs on fastball/23% on curve/20% on cutter, clean arm

Sean Newcomb (LHP, Braves, AA) - Top prospect, command and control issues as a starter, clean and power arm, lots of Ks, stingy with the hits and HRs

Joe Kelly (RHP, Red Sox) - 97+ on the fastball, ~11% whiffs on the fastball, clean arm
Michael Lorenzen (RHP, Reds) 
Tony Cingrani (LHP, Reds) 
Alex Meyer (RHP, Angels)

I've liked Romero as a change-of-scenery reliever for a while now, even if not the Cubs. Newcomb probably does not have the command and control to start in the long run. Kelly's fastball can be excellent, he is capable of piling up GBs, the Red Sox might finally be keeping him in releif. I'm sure there's plenty more candidates out there.

 

[SenorGato]

SABR rates Addison Russell the top defender in the NL and Heyward #5 - including second OF. Russell rated as 4th overall in baseball while Heyward is 8th.

http://sabr.org/sdi/2016-final

 

[SenorGato]

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/208585722/mlb-waiting-for-posting-of-shohei-otani/?partnerId=as_mlb_20161111_67784606&adbid=797167032315756546&adbpl=tw&adbpr=18479513

Already talks of him getting $300 million....He won't get it, the owners will make sure of that, but dude is going to get paid. I look forward to Otani in a Cubs uni and finally paying and playing a Japanese superstar.

[SenorGato]

Quote

Kyle Hendricks is our 2016 NL Contact Manager of the Year with a 75 Adjusted Contact Score. You’ll notice a trio of Cub starters near the top of this list. Gather starting pitchers with length, solid K/BB profiles, exceptional contact-management skills, place a very strong team defense behind them, and you might win some hardware. Hendricks’ Unadjusted Contact Score was even lower, at 66, thanks to unusually low production allowed on grounders (.156 AVG-.169 SLG, 43 Unadjusted Production, adjusted upward for context to 93). Hendricks allowed the least authoritative fly-ball contact in the NL — 62 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score — and his average fly-ball velocity allowed was over two full STD lower than average. In addition, he had a strong though not extreme BIP mix with a clear grounder tendency. Soft fly balls and lots of grounders is a winning combination.

 

Quote

After winning 2015 Contact Manager of the Year honors, Jake Arrieta finished third in the NL in 2016. His Unadjusted Contact Score of 64 actually paced the league; he had even better luck on grounders (.128 AVG-.148 SLG, 30 Unadjusted Contact Score, adjusted upward for context to 83) than his teammate Hendricks. Yup, that Cub infield defense was pretty special indeed. Arrieta didn’t limit fly-ball authority nearly as well as Hendricks or Martinez, but finished a close third in the rankings due to an exceptional BIP mix and the third-best grounder-authority suppression in the league.

....

Jon Lester rounds out the Cub trio in the top five. Like his teammates, Lester recorded an Unadjusted Contact Score (75) well below his adjusted mark (88). There’s that Cub defense again. Lester’s big variance was on line drives, where he allowed an amazingly low .519 AVG-.615 SLG; that’s 58 Unadjusted Liner Production, marked up to 90 for context. His BIP mix is relatively unremarkable, but he limits authority quite well and has no glaring weaknesses anywhere in his profile.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-nl-starting-pitcher-contact-management/

[SenorGato]

Oh yeeeeeeaaaah....Is now 2x WS MVP Ben Zobrist still overpaid? He got his second one with the Cubs, clear best team in baseball, just a week or so ago. The first was had when the Royals bested the Mets a year ago. 

[SenorGato]

Quote

The top 10 careers by bWAR+, scouting directors with four or more years in the role:

Bill Lajoie – 258.9

Joe McIlvaine – 234.4

Logan White – 184.9

Mickey White – 172.4

Kris Kline – 164.3

Mike Rizzo – 159.1

Jason McLeod – 157.8

Roger Jongewaard – 154.5

Tom Allison – 152.8

Mel Didier – 152.2

And the top 10 by players per year:

Jeff Luhnow  – 8.14

Tom Allison – 8.00

Jason McLeod – 7.20

Bill Gayton – 7.11

Terry Ryan – 6.80

Brian Sabean – 6.71

Dick Bogard – 6.40

Matt Nerland – 6.38

Gary Hughes – 6.30

Bob Engle – 6.20

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/scouting-the-scouting-directors-part-1/

[NJ]

23 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Oh yeeeeeeaaaah....Is now 2x WS MVP Ben Zobrist still overpaid? He got his second one with the Cubs, clear best team in baseball, just a week or so ago. The first was had when the Royals bested the Mets a year ago. 

Where's (what position) he going to play next year?

[SenorGato]

Probably the usual 2B/OF mix. Certainly Baez hasn't taken that 2B spot yet, if ever. 

[NJ]

14 hours ago, SenorGato said:

 Certainly Baez hasn't taken that 2B spot yet, if ever. 

Which is why Baez played there every inning in the postseason. So you saying Benny can play there is we don't really need to win the game?

 

[SenorGato]

2 hours ago, NJ said:

Which is why Baez played there every inning in the postseason. So you saying Benny can play there is we don't really need to win the game?

 

You need to win all the games, if possible. Baez had a sub-.600 OPS against RHP in 2016, was basically a non-entity at the plate against the Indians' RH heavy staff. They played him for his defense in the postseason. It's possible the Cubs may be fine with a black hole in their lineup against RHPs over 162 thanks to his defense, but I have my doubts. Hell, I'm not even 100% certain Baez is untouchable in a trade for the cost controlled SP the Cubs need sooner rather than later. He was given favorable matchups all year and, in his favor, capitalized. He's a premium sell high candidate given the minimal overall improvements at the plate (yes he struck out less, but he also walked less and hit for less power doing it) and significant positive national exposure. 

 

[SenorGato]

Correction...Baez had a .689 OPS against RHs last year, including a .288 OBP and a 26% K rate. He's basically Darwin Barney with more Ks against RHPs.

[NJ]

10 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Correction...Baez had a .689 OPS against RHs last year, including a .288 OBP and a 26% K rate. He's basically Darwin Barney with more Ks against RHPs.

yes .. and he's 23 years old so he's lost that window of opportunity to improve his stick. 

He's the Cubs 2nd baseman next year and probably the AS one too.

 

[SenorGato]

2 hours ago, NJ said:

yes .. and he's 23 years old so he's lost that window of opportunity to improve his stick. 

He's the Cubs 2nd baseman next year and probably the AS one too.

 

Nobody said he can't improve, but I don't get why it should be assumed. It's not exactly common to dramatically improve plate discipline just because a guy is young. RHs pitch like 75% of innings, that's a whole lot of free outs in the probable case he is mostly the same. 

Should also be noted that he posted this season's below average offensive line with a high .336 BABIP, including .324 against RHP, so it wasn't an issue of luck. 

[SenorGato]

Seriously, the silence in this thread is still beautiful and hilarious. 

[SenorGato]

Kris Bryant is the 2016 NL MVP. 

https://mobile.twitter.com/espn/status/799400035397996544

GD this is fun. I can't wait to see what his peak season is like, there's a couple .300+ seasons in that bat for sure. 

[NJ]

Watched Ian Happ put 2 out and go 4-4 in the AFL Championship game today. 

In him, we've got a outfielder that might be the table setter we'd miss with losing Fowler.

With power and the versatility to play in if we needed him to.

Another Cubs 1st round pick that will likely be able to collect a major league pension some day.

I guess good scouting really does change things. 

ps - saw Jimenez chase the same pitching Happ saw and looked semi lost in doing so.

 

[SenorGato]

Great finish for Happ. Solid season, hopefully fewer Ks next year

That makes two championships since September for Jimenez. Dude more than held his own against mostly AA level comp at 19 with minimal experience above A ball.

[NJ]

9 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Great finish for Happ. Solid season, hopefully fewer Ks next year

That makes two championships since September for Jimenez. Dude more than held his own against mostly AA level comp at 19 with minimal experience above A ball.

He struck out 2% less than Happ did

[SenorGato]

9 hours ago, NJ said:

He struck out 2% less than Happ did

Happ struck out more than league average in every league he played. Jimenez was the opposite, including 7+% better than Happ in the AFL. Jimenez actually struck out less often in SB as the year went on too, 16.7% from June on (257 PAs). 

 

[NJ]

4 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Happ struck out more than league average in every league he played. Jimenez was the opposite, including 7+% better than Happ in the AFL. Jimenez actually struck out less often in SB as the year went on too, 16.7% from June on (257 PAs). 

 

again -  he struck out 2% less than Happ did

watch the game and decide who the hitter is - not hard to do.

One guy homers from both sides of the plate and hits lasers - one guy whiffs twice on pitches that nearly bounce in and looks lost.

Jimenez = Soler part deux

[SenorGato]

4 hours ago, NJ said:

again -  he struck out 2% less than Happ did

watch the game and decide who the hitter is - not hard to do.

One guy homers from both sides of the plate and hits lasers - one guy whiffs twice on pitches that nearly bounce in and looks lost.

Jimenez = Soler part deux

- 2% isn't insignificant, and again Happ struck out more than the league average in all leagues he was in this year. Even if you think he's a better prospect than Jimenez based solely on their last game and dismiss his flaw because the performance gap between he and the top prospect in the system is not arbitrarily large enough, Jimenez still isn't the bar by which all prospects are measured. Happ's got some swing and miss issues, they're objectively his flaw as a prospect. 

- One nationally aired game is not the be all end all. If that were the case then we can point to Jimenez's Futures Game performance where he and Moncada were the two best players on the field.

- Again, Jimenez also struck out 7+% less than Happ in the same league, Happ striking out in 1/4 of his AFL PAs.

They're clearly the best two prospects in the system but Jimenez easily had the better season and is on more of a star's trajectory.

[SenorGato]

3. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Mesa (Cubs No. 2): Another precocious 19-year-old, Jimenez wasn't as spectacular in Arizona as he was when he starred at the SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game and won the Class A Midwest League MVP award this summer. Yet he still exhibited as high a power ceiling as any Fall Leaguer, with scouts comparing his upside with Giancarlo Stanton's.

8. Ian Happ, 2B, Mesa (Cubs No. 1): Happ also has 20-20 potential and homered from both sides of the plate in the championship game. Though he's athletic, most scouts think he'll wind up on an outfield corner rather than at second base.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209388294/arizona-fall-leagues-top-25-prospects-in-2016/

[NJ]

6 hours ago, SenorGato said:

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/209388294/arizona-fall-leagues-top-25-prospects-in-2016/

Glad Jim Callis is the supreme seer of the universe - his judgement is gospel huh? 

Keep on believing it.

Then go look at the Cubs top 30 prospects and see how they're ranked

[SenorGato]

22 minutes ago, NJ said:

Glad Jim Callis is the supreme seer of the universe - his judgement is gospel huh? 

Keep on believing it.

Then go look at the Cubs top 30 prospects and see how they're ranked

Ignoring that Callis goes from not gospel to gospel in two sentences, am I not arbitrarily high enough on Happ because I said he needs to K less and one game didn't sway me from that? He does need to strike out less! He K'd nearly 24% of the time in High A and 25% of the time in the Fall League. That's alot. He has plenty of tools and skills that should do very well in the majors if he starts closing the holes in his swing and could be a first division starting 2B if everything goes well.

 

 

[NJ]

Don't know what you're talking about with the gospel to not gospel and even if Callis did the ranking for the Cubs top 30 prospects http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=chc#livefyre-comments - Happ is ranked 1 and Jimenez 2

[SenorGato]

24 minutes ago, NJ said:

Don't know what you're talking about with the gospel to not gospel and even if Callis did the ranking for the Cubs top 30 prospects http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=chc#livefyre-comments - Happ is ranked 1 and Jimenez 2

So you do know!! I still don't get what any of this has to do with Happ's swing and miss. None of this changes that he struck out more than the league average in all the leagues he played and that it would be better for him as a prospect to strike out less. 

[JPPT1974]

Well the 108 year old curse now has been broken! Way to go!

[SenorGato]

 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

In short the Cubs are going to be awesome again and this is without Fowler.    They have plenty of options this offseason as the Cubs can land anyone they want in a trade and are going to be picky in FA. 

[NJ]

5 hours ago, SenorGato said:

 http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

In short the Cubs are going to be awesome again and this is without Fowler.    They have plenty of options this offseason as the Cubs can land anyone they want in a trade and are going to be picky in FA. 

I quit reading when it said that Rondon and Stroup were the most promising to take over for the strong possibility of Chapman's absence.

If Chapman's absent and Rondon and Stroup are used to replace him - we're by no means in place for a deep postseason run.

Conversely, we're positioned to pull "wait till next year" out of the vocabulary archive.

[SenorGato]

3 hours ago, NJ said:

I quit reading when it said that Rondon and Stroup were the most promising to take over for the strong possibility of Chapman's absence.

If Chapman's absent and Rondon and Stroup are used to replace him - we're by no means in place for a deep postseason run.

That's not what's said:

Quote

The departure of Aroldis Chapman obviously creates a vacuum at the back of Chicago’s bullpen — and that unit represents probably the club’s greatest weakness (relatively speaking) as the roster is presently constructed. Hector Rondon‘s postseason was suboptimal, but he receives a promising forecast (72 ERA-) nonetheless. He and Pedro Strop (71 ERA-) appear to remain the most qualified candidates for high-leverage innings.

They're basically saying that those two project as the best relievers on the team.  Edwards Jr. fan that I am, that's not exactly a controversial statement. 

[SenorGato]

Solid move with Jay

[SenorGato]

Including the postseason, the Cubs are tied with three other teams for the 7th most wins ever in a season.

1998 Yankees - 125
2001 Mariners - 120
1906 Cubs - 118
1986 Mets - 116
1975 Reds - 115
1970 Orioles - 115
2009 Yankees - 114
1927 Yankees - 114
1909 Pirates - 114
2016 Cubs - 114

[NJ]

21 hours ago, SenorGato said:

Solid move with Jay

 

The Jay/Almora platoon is in place - good work.

 

[SenorGato]

7 minutes ago, NJ said:

The Jay/Almora platoon is in place - good work.

Eh, I'll believe that when they run it and/or Almora survives the offseason