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2016 WS Champions/Cubs Thread


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Porcello is there because he's healthy, young, and productive, only equal to Price in that I would sign him before Zimmermann.

You do realize Zimmermann was 2nd in the majors in FIP last year? And he won 19 games in 2013. Whether you want to look at advanced metrics or outdated hogwash, Zimmermann deserves to have his name listed among the top free agent pitchers next year. He's only two years older than Porcello. The difference between a league average starter and an ace is more valuable to me than two friggin' years. 

 

Have I ever told you that I'm really glad you don't run the Cubs?

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Congrats to Troll and NJ.  Real fans even back during the tough times.  Hoping the Cubs win the WS for you guys. 

Ironically enough, in 1997, I was a 13 year old Indians fan. It wasn't my first baseball heartbreak. That would be whenever Albert Belle signed with the White Sox. That son of a bitch. It's tough to r

Thanks Rob - it was a phenomenal season. I think it gave  - truth be told - my favorite sport a shot in the arm too which just adds to the special nature of what happened here. I was at the first

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You do realize Zimmermann was 2nd in the majors in FIP last year? And he won 19 games in 2013. Whether you want to look at advanced metrics or outdated hogwash, Zimmermann deserves to have his name listed among the top free agent pitchers next year. He's only two years older than Porcello. The difference between a league average starter and an ace is more valuable to me than two friggin' years. 

 

Have I ever told you that I'm really glad you don't run the Cubs?

Oh, he had a top FIP once and won 19 games another time? Alright that is alot of science, Zimmermann's basically David Price.

Why not to buy Zimmermann:

- 6 years removed from TJ this year puts his arm in a dangerous position:

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-high-risk-drafting-high-school-pitchers-with-top-picks/

Three different teams say data shows that once a pitcher has Tommy John Surgery, he is likely to need another operation within seven years.

- Two pitch pitcher with fastball/slider. Throws his changeup, cutter, and curve like 10% of the time combined. I don't buy that he can mix his pitches better thanks to the first point above. More breaking balls and offspeeds is inevitable, and bad for his elbow.

- Flyballs and line drives - those are his favorite types of contact.

- Mediocre whiff rates. Career his whiff rate is something like 9%. Cole Hamels, who pitches to the Nats rather than the Phillies, posts whiff rates 2-3% higher throughout his career.

But I mean if he put up a top FIP once then by all means....throw him another Lester deal....I mean, that is advanced stuff, nowhere near the basic analysis of the day. Its still the early 00s, right?

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Oh, he had a top FIP once and won 19 games another time? Alright that is alot of science, Zimmermann's basically David Price.

Why not to buy Zimmermann:

- 6 years removed from TJ this year puts his arm in a dangerous position:

http://www.gammonsdaily.com/peter-gammons-high-risk-drafting-high-school-pitchers-with-top-picks/

- Two pitch pitcher with fastball/slider. Throws his changeup, cutter, and curve like 10% of the time combined. I don't buy that he can mix his pitches better thanks to the first point above. More breaking balls and offspeeds is inevitable, and bad for his elbow.

- Flyballs and line drives - those are his favorite types of contact.

- Mediocre whiff rates. Career his whiff rate is something like 9%. Cole Hamels, who pitches to the Nats rather than the Phillies, posts whiff rates 2-3% higher throughout his career.

But I mean if he put up a top FIP once then by all means....throw him another Lester deal....I mean, that is advanced stuff, nowhere near the basic analysis of the day. Its still the early 00s, right?

In 2012 Zimmermann ranked 5th in WAR among pitchers. Last year? 7th. He posted the second best strikeout to walk ratio last year.

 

He's a great pitcher. You can't find me a metric that says he isn't. As much as the prospect of Porcello inducing grounders right at defensive wizard Starlin Castro for the next five years appeals to me, I'll take the guy who's been an elite pitcher two of the last three seasons.

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He's a good pitcher lined up to be a horrible long term FA deal. The word elite is passed around like a hoowah, but Zimmermann has been that maybe last year. Way too many flags to lump in with Price, or even target as a FA.

Porcello is solid, young, very healthy, has only now started to mix his pitches more (he's basically survived on his sinker since he was 20), better batted ball profile...Way better buy, and if not give me Samardzija. Someone else can pay for Zimmermann's next TJ and/or quicker than imagined decline.

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Cole Hamels remains available on the trade market, and as many eight teams have kicked the tires on the ace left-hander, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Asked by Salisbury how many clubs have made offers, Amaro replied, “Real offers? Four.”

Amaro wouldn’t comment on which clubs made those “real” offers...

 

- MLBTR

 

Cubs need to be one of those four, the winning one at that.

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Cole Hamels remains available on the trade market, and as many eight teams have kicked the tires on the ace left-hander, Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com. Asked by Salisbury how many clubs have made offers, Amaro replied, “Real offers? Four.”

Amaro wouldn’t comment on which clubs made those “real” offers...

- MLBTR

Cubs need to be one of those four, the winning one at that.

Red Sox want Hamels. I'd prefer the cubs get him.

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Been suggesting Phil Coke all offseason, glad the Cubs landed him.

Certainly need a lefty "out" guy - don't know if it's him though.

Love the fact he took a minor league contract.

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Minor league deals literally never hurt.

Fact bro  -

Also heard that he passed on a couple major league offers to sign with the "lovable losers"

This new take on the Chicago National League Franchise is going to take some getting used to - but I'm up for the challenge. 

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I'm a little weary of prospects who more or less pop out of nowhere, and despite being the 4th pick in a very weak draft that fits Schwarber. I don't see him as a catcher, which pretty much ruins him for me. Hopefully he either helps land a stud pitcher (still Hamels) or turn into a catcher this year. Otherwise he's just not going to be a worthwhile defensive player.

Good deal with Coke. Still don't understand the Wright non-tender.

Wrights fastball sucked and the FO has stated many times a want for power arms in the bullpen. He just didn't fit.

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I'm a little weary of prospects who more or less pop out of nowhere, and despite being the 4th pick in a very weak draft that fits Schwarber. I don't see him as a catcher, which pretty much ruins him for me. Hopefully he either helps land a stud pitcher (still Hamels) or turn into a catcher this year. Otherwise he's just not going to be a worthwhile defensive player.

Wrights fastball sucked and the FO has stated many times a want for power arms in the bullpen. He just didn't fit.

 

How did Schwarber "pop out of nowhere"? As you said, he was the 4th pick in the draft.

 

If he can catch, it would be an awesome bonus, but he projects as a professional hitter in a league where that's a dying breed. 

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How did Schwarber "pop out of nowhere"? As you said, he was the 4th pick in the draft.

 

If he can catch, it would be an awesome bonus, but he projects as a professional hitter in a league where that's a dying breed. 

Many in the know are saying he's one of the purest hitters in the draft - that's what's exciting to me. the don't come along every day. 

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How did Schwarber "pop out of nowhere"? As you said, he was the 4th pick in the draft.

 

If he can catch, it would be an awesome bonus, but he projects as a professional hitter in a league where that's a dying breed. 

 

Schwarber was pretty late to the party for a guy who ended up being drafted 4th. He was known, but generally thought of as a late first bat with no shot to catch. Most of his hype has come after the draft, which sounds cooler than it is because "after the draft" is still A ball.

 

Things to consider:

 

- The 2014 draft was weak, one of the weaker ones in recent times.

- The Cubs previously stated that college bats were the best way to use top of the draft picks.

- There was no Kris Bryant, Tulo, or Longoria in the draft

- His best competition for top college bat was a guy who profiled as a bad LFer at the time (which, as a "catching prospect" technically means Schwarber would be sliding down the defensive scale to become) or a catcher with some glove and some bat but not elite amounts of either without taking a step forward in the pros...basically, it wasn't a tough room to work.

 

Long term, I think he's a bad defensive corner with a solid but not prodigious bat.

 

Right now I actually think he's the single most overrated player in the system. He's only got a couple hundred PAs in pro ball, all in the SS and A ball levels. The Cubs have an amazing, amazing PR department.

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Pretend there was a time before the draft. Schwarber was pretty late to the party for a guy who ended up being drafted 4th. He was known, but generally thought of as a late first bat with no shot to catch.

 

Other things to consider:

 

- The 2014 draft was weak, one of the weaker ones in recent times.

- The Cubs previously stated that college bats were the best way to use top of the draft picks.

- There was no Kris Bryant, Tulo, or Longoria in the draft

- His best competition for top college bat was a guy who profiled as a bad LFer at the time (which, as a "catching prospect" technically means Schwarber would be sliding down the defensive scale to become) or a catcher with some glove and some bat but not elite amounts of either without taking a step forward in the pros...basically, it wasn't a tough room to work.

 

Long term, I think he's a bad defensive corner with a solid but not prodigious bat. He's only got a couple hundred PAs in pro ball, none above the A ball levels.

 

Right now I actually think he's the single most overrated player in the system. The Cubs have an amazing, amazing PR department.

So, you dislike him just because he was a late riser?

 

It's not like he was projected as a third rounder or something and the Cubs reached.

 

.344/.428/.634 with 18 homers in 72 games across three different levels last year. What an over-rated prospect.

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So, you dislike him just because he was a late riser?

 

It's not like he was projected as a third rounder or something and the Cubs reached.

 

.344/.428/.634 with 18 homers in 72 games across three different levels last year. What an over-rated prospect.

 

No, just am skeptical and think he's being overrated. The Cubs "reached" for a guy who was probably a mid-late first round pick in most drafts, but last year was not most drafts. It was really weak - enough that a HS lefty went 1 overall for the first time in ~25 years, didn't sign, and isn't even the clear cut favorite to go 1 overall in the very next draft.

 

Scouting stat lines is hack. The "three different levels" include SS ball, A ball, and High A ball - not exactly the pinnacle of baseball competition. Still plenty of questions about defense, quick twitch athleticism including foot speed, logging PAs against better competition...He's a good prospect, but he gets pretty boring if he moves off of C and there is a really good chance he is not a C.

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No, just am skeptical and think he's being overrated. The Cubs "reached" for a guy who was probably a mid-late first round pick in most drafts, but last year was not most drafts. It was really weak - enough that a HS lefty went 1 overall for the first time in ~25 years, didn't sign, and isn't even the clear cut favorite to go 1 overall in the very next draft.

 

Scouting stat lines is hack. The "three different levels" include SS ball, A ball, and High A ball - not exactly the pinnacle of baseball competition. Still plenty of questions about defense, quick twitch athleticism including foot speed, logging PAs against better competition...He's a good prospect, but he gets pretty boring if he moves off of C and there is a really good chance he is not a C.

Power doesn't bore me, and he's got it in spades.

 

Dismissing stat lines completely because they're "hack" is hack. Of course it was against lower level competition. That's basically what all rookies face against in their first year. They don't all have OPS's over 1.000, though.

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Power doesn't bore me, and he's got it in spades.

 

Dismissing stat lines completely because they're "hack" is hack. Of course it was against lower level competition. That's basically what all rookies face against in their first year. They don't all have OPS's over 1.000, though.

1 - Eh, we don't really know what his power ceiling is.

 

2 - No one is dismissing his stat line. Thinking this is all that matters is hack.

 

3 - This isn't some rookie. I get that not making these nuances makes your argument a little cleaner sounding, but it's possible to be better than most prospects and still not have that great of a ceiling in the majors. It's possible to be much better than most lower level pro ball players without having that great of a ceiling in the grand scheme of things.

 

Relatively speaking, I love the bat - but see it as more Nick Swisher than Babe Ruth (the other day I had a Cub fan try to compare him to Ken Griffey ******* Jr).

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1 - Eh, we don't really know what his power ceiling is.

2 - No one is dismissing his stat line. Thinking this is all that matters is hack.

3 - This isn't some rookie. I get that not making these nuances makes your argument a little cleaner sounding, but it's possible to be better than most prospects and still not have that great of a ceiling in the majors. It's possible to be much better than most lower level pro ball players without having that great of a ceiling in the grand scheme of things.

Relatively speaking, I love the bat - but see it as more Nick Swisher than Babe Ruth (the other day I had a Cub fan try to compare him to Ken Griffey ******* Jr).

Well, there ya go, the last sentence pretty much describes why you're being a Schwarber wet blanket. I might feel similarly if I saw idiots comparing him to Ken Griffey Jr.

But, I would say that since being drafted last June, Schwarber has done nothing but inspire optimism. Believe me, I was not happy that we yet again passed on pitching in the draft, but I'm happy now.

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Well, there ya go, the last sentence pretty much describes why you're being a Schwarber wet blanket. I might feel similarly if I saw idiots comparing him to Ken Griffey Jr.

But, I would say that since being drafted last June, Schwarber has done nothing but inspire optimism. Believe me, I was not happy that we yet again passed on pitching in the draft, but I'm happy now.

 

I thought the same thing before that comment. There's plenty who actually buy that he's as good as or better than Bryant.

 

When something so unknown inspires so much optimism, there should also be skepticism. I don't care about passing on pitching - I get why that happened - I just don't think Schwarber is definitely a stud who will be anchoring the Cubs lineup with all those other homegrown guys for the next half decade++.

 

I'd trade Schwarber for Hamels right now.

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I thought the same thing before that comment. There's plenty who actually buy that he's as good as or better than Bryant.

 

When something so unknown inspires so much optimism, there should also be skepticism. I don't care about passing on pitching - I get why that happened - I just don't think Schwarber is definitely a stud who will be anchoring the Cubs lineup with all those other homegrown guys for the next half decade++.

 

I'd trade Schwarber for Hamels right now.

I want to be the Indians of the 90's. Except, ya know, with championships and sh*t.

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I want to be the Indians of the 90's. Except, ya know, with championships and sh*t.

 

I want to be the Yankees - lots of winning, big payrolls, headlines, and so on. Unlike the Indians, they could buy and trade for top pitching.

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Aka the Yankees - who were able to go out and buy pitching.

Well, they had Hershiser. Just had sh*t luck. The f*cking Marlins. That still pisses me off. I was an Indians fan before I discovered WGN, which was in '98.

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Well, they had Hershiser. Just had sh*t luck. The f*cking Marlins. That still pisses me off. I was an Indians fan before I discovered WGN, which was in '98.

 

Plus guys like Finely (lost to the Angels)...Nagy...Yeah, tough luck for those Indians teams.

 

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I got censored on a Cubs forum for saying the word gay, in a joke that had nothing to do with sexual orientation. Further proof that Cubs fans are soft.

 

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Cubs still need to land Hamels.

 

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Cubs need to re-draft Isiah Gilliam in June.

 

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Still pissed they missed out on Heyward's age 25

 

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Baez needs to start the year in AAA. The extra year will help his trade value, and he needs the seasoning. Bryant needs to be on the ML roster on OD, he would be in a merit based world.

 

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Kyle Schwarber might be the single most overrated prospect in baseball, but if he helps land a top pitcher I will take it. He's a no glove player whose bat just might be overrated over the long term. My comp right now is Matt LaPorta. Cubs need to shoot for a Matheny/Ausmus type at C and hope they luck into a Yadier Molina.

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What the f*ck happened? It's like he just suddenly went retarded the second he got called up. 

I don't know dude  ... he's making a young Soriano look picky at the plate. Criminal to waste that bat speed  - but Maddon's not giving him 10 different things to look at and work on.

He told him to lay off the crap and relax up there, and he's giving him a ton of at bats to work on it.

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My preseason top 20 Cubs prospects (allowing me to cheat and keep the top 3):
1) Bryant - Best power in the minors, could be a 30+ HR guy as a rookie.
2) Russell - Has it all.
3) Soler - Stay on the field

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4) Torres - A solid MIF prospect with some strong ARL going for him right now.

5) McKinney - One of the better and more patient plate approaches in the system, but not much power. David DeJeus type starter.
6) Almora - Made some changes in his swing, still young and athletic, still question the bat right now, but ultimately I do think he is a MLer.
7) Schwarber- I think he's the most overrated prospect in the system, but grand scheme he's better than most prospects. No glove, all bat, marginal athlete, and the bat hasn't even really been tested yet (meh the Big 10,meh dominating the A ball levels out of college). Will make the show, but I question the upside.

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8) Stinnett - Needs innings, and not a ton of upside as a starter really, but I like him. For whatever reason I think of a power armed Villanueva flex pitcher. None of the SP prospects have a huge ceiling right now anyway.
9) Edwards - Not sure what to think of him, but definitely a reliever early on in his ML career.

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10) Rivero - Not sure how long it lasts, but a really strong reliever prospect as those go.
11) Hannemann - More physical prospect than you would think, second best athlete in the system. Looked good in the AFL.
12) Zagunis- Interesting athlete himself, though I have no actual hopes he can C. I'm forever on the lookout for Zobrist candidates, so I'm interested in where he plays this year.
13) Clifton - Has some of the better size/velocity/youth combos in the system, has more innings than most of those guys, and has stayed healthy. Basically a year behind Underwood, but has the height and length that Underwood never came up with.
14) Underwood - Needs to tighten his curveball or develop a slider. I think the Cubs thought he would grow a couple more inches when drafting him at 17. Instead he first showed up fat, he never gained any height or length, and now is pretty filled out and barrell chested. Good arm strength, fast arm, some trouble spinning it. Kinda reminds me of Edwin Jackson, if he's lucky.
15) Mitchell - Best athlete in the system, has legitimate baseball talent and tools. An aggressive ranking - will still be at the SS levels this year.
16) Johnson - Just not a fan overall, even as a reliever.
17) Tseng - Lacks projection but if he stays healthy and develops tighter offspeeds could be a decent SP in the league.
18) Steele - Younger, quicker arm, same height, and better delivery than Sands, under the radar. Aggressive ranking.
19) Black - High intensity guy on the mound. Almost definitely a reliever, 6th-7th innings guy, and a likeable prospect as one.
20) Eloy Jimenez - A big kid (6'4," all arms and legs) but not yet a stiff athlete, and didn't embarrass himself as a 17 year old stateside for the first time.

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