Trade Greene to Arizona or Green Bay

[Jetsfan80]

the statistic that Casserly uses are the following:

1st rounder: 75% chance of starting by year 4.

2nd rounder: 50%

3rd rounder: 30%

4th rounder: 25%

5th rounder: 20%

6th rounder: 9%

7th rounder: 5%

5th is an ok shot. 6th and 7th are just long shots.

So Tannenbaum is 1/7 (14 %) on 5th rounders (below average) and 1/9 (11 %) on 6th rounders (about average), if Casserly's numbers are correct.

For our purposes, I counted years where we didn't have a 5th into the equation. I don't see why he should earn credit for carelessly trading away picks to move up for studs like Shonn Greene.

Granted, he also got Santonio for a 5th, so he's got that going for him. But he also spent $50M on him, something that is for a different discussion.

[stoicsentry]

So Tannenbaum is 1/7 (14 %) on 5th rounders (below average)

Who is the 1 you are counting as a starter? Conner or Kerley? If we start with 3 WR, then Kerley is a starter. If we start with 2 backs, the Conner is a starter. If we start with 3 WR and 2 backs, then both of them are starters.

[Jetsfan80]

Who is the 1 you are counting as a starter? Conner or Kerley? If we start with 3 WR, then Kerley is a starter. If we start with 2 backs, the Conner is a starter. If we start with 3 WR and 2 backs, then both of them are starters.

Conner is not a starter. He's a special teamer and occassionally makes appearances at FB. We've been running far more single-back sets than we did under Schotty.

Casserly's data says "starter by year 4". Conner doesn't qualify.

Kerley can count as a starter, but he's borderline. If we were at full strength with Holmes, Keller and Hill out there, Kerley wouldn't be considered a starter.

Tannebaum really only deserves credit for Slauson among his late-rounders. And that pick only happened because of Callahan, who had coached the guy at Nebraska.

That's also pretty sad considering that plenty of NFL G's out there were drafted in the later rounds. It's not like Tanny has ever unearthed special talent on Day 2 (now Day 3) of the draft.

[#27TheDominator]

Conner is not a starter. He's a special teamer and occassionally makes appearances at FB. We've been running far more single-back sets than we did under Schotty.

Casserly's data says "starter by year 4". Conner doesn't qualify.

Kerley can count as a starter, but he's borderline. If we were at full strength with Holmes, Keller and Hill out there, Kerley wouldn't be considered a starter.

Tannebaum really only deserves credit for Slauson among his late-rounders. And that pick only happened because of Callahan, who had coached the guy at Nebraska.

That's also pretty sad considering that plenty of NFL G's out there were drafted in the later rounds. It's not like Tanny has ever unearthed special talent on Day 2 (now Day 3) of the draft.

I don't believe that analysis is fair. Conner isn't starting because he is hurt. He starts more than half the games. I think Sparano actually is using more FB than Schottenheimer, but he's been forced to use the H-back Reuland. He also signed another FB for that purpose. I'm not in love with Conner or the pick, but the guy is a starter and if he isn't Kerley is because they are running 3 WRs.

I think you are not reading the Casserly data correctly. These guys aren't going to be regular 10 year starters. Coleman probably counts as a starter. He was pretty much our starter for over a year and then was a regular nickel for several more. I started to add Lowery, but I guess that's another thread because he was a 4th. Devito and Cumberland should be in this general discussion because they are legit NFL players that were UFAs.

I don't think this is an area where Tannenbaum excels, but your data has him right around the league average and he traded picks away to move up and get Holmes and Edwards. It's hardly a smoking gun while everybody is piling on.