Jump to content

The Case for Tim Tebow


TTTTebowAndTheJets

Recommended Posts

http://youhavenogame.wordpress.com/2012/11/10/the-case-for-tim-tebow/

Couldn't have said it better myself:

It’s widely accepted that the quarterback position is the most important single position in major North American professional sports. In the NFL, teams with a great quarterback are often able to overcome mediocre talent throughout the remainder of the team. Teams without a good quarterback often struggle despite having talented skill position players and a strong defense. That’s why it’s so frustrating for me to see NFL teams refusing to make what I consider to be needed quarterback changes. There are three teams in particular I think need to change their starting QB: Philadelphia with Nick Foles, Kansas City with Ricky Stanzi, and yes, the New York Jets with Tim Tebow.

Those who have read my work on MMA know that I’m a numbers guy. I like using numbers to make arguments, even when the numbers themselves are somewhat flimsy. So if you’re a statistics-inclined football fan, you probably think I’m off my rocker. That’s because Tim Tebow’s statistics are almost universally dismal. As the starter for the Denver Broncos last year, Tebow completed 46.5 percent of his passes for 6.4 yards per pass attempt. His net yards per pass attempt – a statistic that includes sacks – was just 4.95, the equivalent of a good running back (and that’s not a good thing). His DVOA as a passer was -22.7%, and his DVOA as a rusher was -18.3%. His Total QBR was 29.9, which ranked 31st out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks. No matter what metrics or statistics you like to use, Tebow graded out as a bad quarterback in 2011.

Despite all the dismal numbers, I’m going to stick my neck out by arguing that Tim Tebow is good enough to be an above-average starting quarterback in the NFL. That’s right – I believe that Tebow’s true talent level is one reflective of one of the best 16 quarterbacks in the league. In a sports world that seems to have decided that Tebow is unworthy of the NFL, I’m going to make the case for him.

More than any other major professional sport, NFL statistics are dependent on context. In baseball, a player’s statistics do not need a whole lot of context. Ultimately, how well a player does has little to do with his coaches or teammates, and the strength of his opponents tends to even out over time. When considering a baseball player’s statistics, perhaps the player’s home ballpark should be considered, but there’s little else that needs to be done. By contrast, football is a sport full of context. When a quarterback completes a pass to a receiver, there are a lot of things that happen on the play. The quarterback’s statistics are dependent not just on the quarterback’s ability, but on the strength of the defense, the ability of the receivers, the quality of the offensive line, and the ingenuity of the scheme. When a pass is completed, it’s not just the quarterback and the receiver who made that happen. It was the entire offense, as a whole.

That’s why I’m a fan of DVOA on a team level, but not on an individual level. There is no one statistic that can properly account for the performance of the offensive line, the running backs, the receivers, the defense, and the play design.

Now, I’m a Minnesota Vikings fan, but I paid very close attention to Tim Tebow last season. Why? Because, from the moment he was named the starting quarterback in Denver, Tebow was also my fantasy football quarterback. I had naively thought that I could do well with Kevin Kolb, as Kolb had some good performances with Philadelphia and had the opportunity to work with Larry Fitzgerald. Needless to say, that didn’t go well for me. My fantasy football team was a dismal 1-5 when I desperately turned to Tebow in one last attempt to save the season. As a result, I watched Tebow play in at least part of almost every game he played in last year.

Anybody who paid attention to Tebow knows that the games he played in were a tale of two Tebows. The first Tebow was a truly unproductive player, to the extent that he would set records for futility in professional football if not for the other Tebow. This Tebow generally played in the first three quarters of games, and sometimes into the fourth quarter as well. He would complete very few passes for very few yards. His drives almost always ended in punts or fumbles. He got sacked a lot. And he had severe difficulty putting points on the board.

Then there was the second Tebow, the one who played late in games. This Tebow was an inspirational football player. He would move the ball down the field in a determined attempt to get his team back into the game. His completion percentage was still low, but his yards per attempt were high, and he was a much more productive runner as well. This Tebow was a deadly weapon – a player who no defense would want to face. He led the Broncos on numerous comebacks and improbable victories. He transformed from popular player to cultural phenomenon. And he left opposing teams and defenses dumbstruck. How is it that the player who was so bad in the first three quarters could be so good when the game was on the line? What was the magic behind “Tebow time?”

It wasn’t just a couple games either. It was almost every week. First, Tebow did it to the Miami Dolphins. With five minutes left in the game, Denver was behind 15-0. The final score? Denver 18, Miami 15. Two weeks later, it was the Raiders, who went from a 17-7 halftime lead to losing 38-24. Another two weeks later, it was the Jets, a team with a ferocious defense, especially to quarterbacks. Mark Sanchez watched helplessly as Tebow engineered a 95-yard touchdown drive to win 17-13. One week later, San Diego had a 13-10 lead after three quarters. Of course, the Broncos ended up winning, 16-13. My beloved Vikings were next, as a 15-7 halftime lead turned into a 35-32 defeat. In the game after that, Tebow put together perhaps his greatest comeback yet, as he trailed the Bears 10-0 with under five minutes left, and pulled off yet another comeback, winning 13-10. And against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the playoffs, Tebow did it yet again, connecting to Demaryius Thomas on the first play of overtime for an 80-yard touchdown to send the Broncos to New England.

I’ve watched football long enough to know that this is no fluke. If a comeback like the ones I described happened once, perhaps I would dismiss it as such. If it happened twice, I would give Tebow his props, but not read too much into it. But Tebow didn’t make a crazy comeback once. He didn’t do it twice. He did it SEVEN TIMES IN ONE SEASON. At that point, what Tebow was able to accomplish goes way beyond luck.

But I don’t believe in magic either. I don’t believe for a second that Tebow is a mere mortal in the first 55 minutes of a game, and a superhuman when things get down to crunch time. In fact, I’ll say right now that the Tim Tebow we saw late in games, making frenzied comebacks, is the REAL Tim Tebow, not the man who struggled throughout the first three quarters of games.

To emphasize the contrast between the two Tebows, here are his statistics as a starter in 2011:

First three quarters per game: 5.39 completions, 13.38 attempts, 75.5 yards

Fourth quarter: 5.15 completions, 9.69 attempts, 75.3 yards

That’s right, Tebow was just as productive in terms of completions and yardage in the fourth quarter of games as he was in the FIRST THREE QUARTERS of games combined.

What explains this dichotomy? What explains how Tebow was able to transform from awful to good?

The answer is simple: Broncos head coach John Fox was terrified of letting Tebow throw the ball. Like most of the football world, Fox saw Tebow’s flawed throwing motion and mechanics and decided he wasn’t a good passer in the NFL. As a result, he severely restricted the Broncos offense when Tebow was the quarterback. When the Broncos would run a passing play, instead of there being a myriad of options, there would be only a couple. Tebow would have three options: force the ball to a covered receiver, throw a “safe” pass that had a low chance of being either completed or intercepted, or run the ball. Given the available options, running the ball sounds pretty good, doesn’t it? Tebow will always be a quarterback who runs a lot, but I believe he was often put into the position of running the ball because there was simply no other acceptable option.

Want some tangible evidence of the restricted game plan? Just look at the statistics! Against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tebow had a passing line of 2/8 for 69 yards and a touchdown. Most would fixate on the two completions as a sign of Tebow’s lack of passing ability. But every quarterback in the league will have stretches of 2/8 passing at some point. The real stories are: one, Tebow got 8.6 yards per attempt despite only completing two passes, and two, John Fox only let Tebow pass the ball eight times in a whole game! In the same game, Fox rammed Lance Ball into the line of scrimmage 30 times for just 96 yards. Despite the extremely conservative (scared) game plan, no Tebow time was needed, as the Broncos led throughout and won 17-10.

Overall, Tebow averaged just over 13 pass attempts in the first three quarters of football games. This is a level of distrust typically reserved for raw rookies, third-stringers, or Tarvaris Jackson. It’s a serious sign of the argument I’m making: that Tebow’s utter lack of passing offense was a reflection of a badly restricted passing game in Denver, because of the organization’s opinion that Tebow really was no good.

What explains Tebow’s sudden heroic performances late in games? The answer is very simple: trailing late in a game, the Broncos had no choice but to open up the offense! Teams that trail by two scores with five minutes left have nothing to lose, and neither did John Fox. With his team behind late, the coaches relented, and gave Tebow an honest-to-goodness NFL offense to work with. And the results were seemingly magical: Tebow completed more passes for more yards, got more first downs, led longer drives, and put points on the board. In other words, Tebow was a good NFL quarterback.

If Tebow’s average statistics in the fourth quarter are extrapolated over a full game, his average passing line would look like this: 21/39 for 301 yards. Of course, Tebow wouldn’t have so many pass attempts throughout games, because he wouldn’t have to play catch-up all the time. So let’s say an unrestricted Tebow would average 28 pass attempts per game (an admittedly arbitrary number). Tebow’s resulting passing line would be 15/28 for 216 yards. This of course doesn’t include Tebow’s inevitable rushing contributions.

Now, it’s a year later, and Tebow is languishing on the Jets as their backup quarterback. Once again, Tebow is in a situation where the coaching staff clearly thinks he’s a terrible passer. That’s because Rex Ryan keeps putting Tebow on the field in ways other than as a passer – sometimes Tebow is a running back, sometimes a wide receiver, sometimes a fullback, and sometimes he’s even a blocker on a punt play. If this is what Tebow is destined to do for the remainder of his career, it will be a tremendous waste of a unique NFL talent.

What Tim Tebow needs is very simple: the opportunity to be the quarterback for an offense that doesn’t limit him. I believe that if a team names Tim Tebow their starting quarterback and lifts the restrictions that coaches so frequently place on him, Tebow will show the world that he is, in fact, a good quarterback, one who is capable of scoring a lot of points and winning a lot of games.

One person who thinks Tebow is a valuable player? None other than New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, arguably the most brilliant football mind in a generation. The Patriots were said to be interested in taking Tebow in the 2010 NFL draft, and Belichick recently made headlines for praising Tebow. And before you say that Belichick says things like that just to get the Jets to play Tebow, consider that Belichick isn’t one to heap praise on players often. Is that the reason Belichickheaped praise on Ed Reed too? Don’t be shocked if the Patriots acquire Tebow at some point – as the heir apparent to Tom Brady himself.

As for my fantasy team… well, after making Tebow my starting fantasy quarterback, my previously 1-5 team went 9-1 the rest of the way and won the league championship. Just another comeback for Tebow.

Football is a sport about context. Context is what has defined the career of Tim Tebow. Scouts and coaches have seen the way Tebow throws the ball, and dismissed him as somebody who doesn’t have what it takes to be a quarterback in the NFL. Offensive restrictions, borne out of a distrust of Tebow’s passing, have created the dichotomy in Tebow’s game, and created the idea that there are two Tebows. The reality is that there is only one Tim Tebow. He’s not an elite quarterback, but he’s a good one. And he’ll prove it if a head coach finally gives him the chance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 105
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Need full read to get context and argument... not worth summarizing... read or don't, just putting it out there because Its the same argument I've tried to make and have failed at and the author put it perfectly.

I'll summarize:

Tebow sucked for 55 minutes in every game cause John Fox was scared.

In the last 5 minutes, he let tebow do whatever he wanted, and God christened Touchdown Jesus with the ability to lead his team to victory.

So, because of this, the Jets should start Tebow and let him do whatever he wants all game and he'll be Touchdown Jesus all game long.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

:rl:

Seriously. this nullifies all arguments being made.

And my next favorite quote:

As for my fantasy team… well, after making Tebow my starting fantasy quarterback, my previously 1-5 team went 9-1 the rest of the way and won the league championship. Just another comeback for Tebow.

Well f#ck! No wonder this boy wonder wrote a fellating article about Touchdown jesus! He won him some fantasy!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why?

We know he sucks already, we don't know that McElroy sucks yet, lets find out if he sux, rather than watching the other two suck.

isnt that the argument people used to try and get sanchez benched!!! I love it. But meh im not entirly sold he sucks yet seeing how he has never had a game plan / offseason. He did pretty well for coming in randomly during the year. He might suck tho lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tebow can run the ball, simple as that.

Tebow stole several tds in college by running the spread option and keeping the ball..

Last year in Denver, Tebow was forced to run for his life because of his problems adjusting to the NFL, but mostly because he had Decker and Thomas..

Decker was the return man prior to the Elways trading off their best receiver to the pats, and Thomas was like Stephen Hill, almost a duplicate.. Since The Denver Elways got Manning, they quickly signed Tamme, Stokely and Dreesen.. Peyton being a pocket passer unlike RG3 and Cam and Wilson has to rely only on his arm.

Tim was never considered a "running QB " per say, but it fits depending on the situation.. He sure didn't win in Florida or against the Steelers last year with his running ability.. What Tim has that Mark and Greg don't have is no fear of being hit, and no fear of running the ball..

Tim is a real football player unlike Sanchez who has absolutely no fight whatsoever at this point, I doubt if he ever did.

Greg can't begin to match Tim's fight.. and that is what counts.. fight.

Just because a bunch of people who have been slurping down Marks loads and softly massaging his nutsack for the past four years don't want the jesus boy to replace him and make them look like the idiots they are, doesn't mean Tebow sucks.. You can say it fifty thousand times in the shower while fantasizing about Mark, it still doesn't mean its true...LOL.

This guy nailed it pretty good...you can tell when the same ol people follow it with "Tebow sux" and that is their assessment..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tebow stole several tds in college by running the spread option and keeping the ball..

Last year in Denver, Tebow was forced to run for his life because of his problems adjusting to the NFL, but mostly because he had Decker and Thomas..

Decker was the return man prior to the Elways trading off their best receiver to the pats, and Thomas was like Stephen Hill, almost a duplicate.. Since The Denver Elways got Manning, they quickly signed Tamme, Stokely and Dreesen.. Peyton being a pocket passer unlike RG3 and Cam and Wilson has to rely only on his arm.

Tim was never considered a "running QB " per say, but it fits depending on the situation.. He sure didn't win in Florida or against the Steelers last year with his running ability.. What Tim has that Mark and Greg don't have is no fear of being hit, and no fear of running the ball..

Tim is a real football player unlike Sanchez who has absolutely no fight whatsoever at this point, I doubt if he ever did.

Greg can't begin to match Tim's fight.. and that is what counts.. fight.

Just because a bunch of people who have been slurping down Marks loads and softly massaging his nutsack for the past four years don't want the jesus boy to replace him and make them look like the idiots they are, doesn't mean Tebow sucks.. You can say it fifty thousand times in the shower while fantasizing about Mark, it still doesn't mean its true...LOL.

This guy nailed it pretty good...you can tell when the same ol people follow it with "Tebow sux" and that is their assessment..

Who are these mythical creatures? The vast majority of people that you would consider to be Sanchez supporters generally acknowlege that he hasn't been good, and appears to be getting worse.

Tebow had a good run (despite generally poor play) followed by a bad run. If not for the unlikely win against the Steelers, the discussion of him as an NFL QB would barely exist. As bad as Mark has been, it's difficult to look at Tebow and see improvement. Even his supporters generally admit that a team needs to tailor their offense to his (limited) talents in order for him to be successful. What kind of case is that?

The fact is that the world is littered with outstanding college QBs that just aren't NFL QB material. IMHO, Tebow would be better served playing in the CFL, with it's wide open field, and run and shoot mentality. He's shown some promise with his deep ball, and he's much more of a threat to run when the field is spread with receivers. The lesser competition wouldn't hurt him, either.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just because a bunch of people who have been slurping down Marks loads and softly massaging his nutsack for the past four years don't want the jesus boy to replace him and make them look like the idiots they are, doesn't mean Tebow sucks.. You can say it fifty thousand times in the shower while fantasizing about Mark, it still doesn't mean its true...LOL.

This guy nailed it pretty good...you can tell when the same ol people follow it with "Tebow sux" and that is their assessment..

So in your warped little world, if people dislike Tebow and dont want him playing its because they are massaging Sanchez's nuts?

You are so far off and so f#cking clueless that its a waste of my time even responding to your ridiculous posts.

Maybe, just maybe, People here have seen enough out of Tim Tebow in his time in the pros and college to know what kind of football player he is and make a decision based on that. Maybe? Naw... its all because we love the Sanchize!!! :rl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, the general argument is Rex is soooo smart he can eval talent enough he knows Mark gives the JETS the best chance to win.. but he watched Tebow (in college perhaps) and then all last year, even when Tebow spanked teh Jets, and he is the braintrust of the NFL for NOT starting Tebow.. ok.

Four years of Sanchez, and you still think Rex knows talent ? Look at Sparano.. he lost his last job, and he has a job waiting ?

It's obvious why Rex doesn't want to start Tebow ...yet, when he does, there won't be any going back to Sanchez..

Slats, we haven't seen Tebow play... and all this discussion about his limited skill set or he can't throw is nonsense..in spite of what he had to throw to last year.. Manning in fact proves my point... Yes he is better than Tebow by far, he better be..he has much more time and support than Tebow has had, but Denver is actually a team with a QB, and Tim showed that last year turning that team around after Orton failed to deliver a winning season with all kinds of support.

I get it ... There are just people , most of whom have been die hard Sanchez supporters up until now, who absolutely hate Tebow, it doesn't matter what he did, or will do.. every bit of it was a fluke.

It doens't matter if he threw for over 300 yds against the number one d last year.. that was a fluke.

It doesn't matter if he took over a team after the FO had no choice because their chosen best chance to win failed, into the playoffs with a 1.8% chance of making it.

It doesn't matter that he is regarded by many as the best college football player ever.. (4ncaa DIV 1 records, 14 SEC records, and 28 school records for PASSING and running)

What matters is that these same *JETS fans* would rather have the third string QB with one NFL start and NO visible history in this league start instead of the nice kid that beat them last year...

It's not even funny..its pathetic.

yes, I know college doesn't count.. that is why people are citing Gmacs college accomplishments as reason to start him, and why the NFL uses college to evaluate players before the draft.

btw, in case you haven't noticed there are several teams in the NFL who are running the spread option at present, because their current QBs ran the SO in college. RG3 is running the exact same offense as Tebow in college.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So in your warped little world, if people dislike Tebow and dont want him playing its because they are massaging Sanchez's nuts?

You are so far off and so f#cking clueless that its a waste of my time even responding to your ridiculous posts.

Maybe, just maybe, People here have seen enough out of Tim Tebow in his time in the pros and college to know what kind of football player he is and make a decision based on that. Maybe? Naw... its all because we love the Sanchize!!! :rl:

No...in my warped *little* world I knew Mark Sanchez was a loser when he opted to gtf out of dodge and take the

NFL starting spot in JETS land, and Tebow was beating the Sooners for the Nat'l title...while your clueless ass was dreaming up some ridiculous bs to tell yourself about Marky mark..

y'all been runnin around fighting over the chance to wipe marks mess up after he spooges all over the place, the rest of the league has been laughin their ass off... (token laughing smiley face excluded)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So, the general argument is Rex is soooo smart he can eval talent enough he knows Mark gives the JETS the best chance to win.. but he watched Tebow (in college perhaps) and then all last year, even when Tebow spanked teh Jets, and he is the braintrust of the NFL for NOT starting Tebow.. ok.

Four years of Sanchez, and you still think Rex knows talent ? Look at Sparano.. he lost his last job, and he has a job waiting ?

It's obvious why Rex doesn't want to start Tebow ...yet, when he does, there won't be any going back to Sanchez..

Slats, we haven't seen Tebow play... and all this discussion about his limited skill set or he can't throw is nonsense..in spite of what he had to throw to last year.. Manning in fact proves my point... Yes he is better than Tebow by far, he better be..he has much more time and support than Tebow has had, but Denver is actually a team with a QB, and Tim showed that last year turning that team around after Orton failed to deliver a winning season with all kinds of support.

I get it ... There are just people , most of whom have been die hard Sanchez supporters up until now, who absolutely hate Tebow, it doesn't matter what he did, or will do.. every bit of it was a fluke.

It doens't matter if he threw for over 300 yds against the number one d last year.. that was a fluke.

It doesn't matter if he took over a team after the FO had no choice because their chosen best chance to win failed, into the playoffs with a 1.8% chance of making it.

It doesn't matter that he is regarded by many as the best college football player ever.. (4ncaa DIV 1 records, 14 SEC records, and 28 school records for PASSING and running)

What matters is that these same *JETS fans* would rather have the third string QB with one NFL start and NO visible history in this league start instead of the nice kid that beat them last year...

It's not even funny..its pathetic.

yes, I know college doesn't count.. that is why people are citing Gmacs college accomplishments as reason to start him, and why the NFL uses college to evaluate players before the draft.

btw, in case you haven't noticed there are several teams in the NFL who are running the spread option at present, because their current QBs ran the SO in college. RG3 is running the exact same offense as Tebow in college.

You're rallying against generalities that simply don't exist.

No one thinks Rex is a great talent evaluator. Even his supporters acknowlege he has no business in the talent side of the business.

Sanchez has very few supporters, and the majority of them supported him simply because they had no other choice. The guy was a #5 pick and gets paid a lot of money. He wasn't going anywhere. It's essentially a case of if you can't beat him, join him.

At this point, I think you could classify the majority of Jet fans as wanting Rex, Sanchez, and Tebow ALL GONE.

Rex and Mark sucking don't make Tebow any better, and Tebow sucking doesn't make Rex or Sanchez any better.

I think most people are interested in McElroy starting because he's the guy we know the least about. The QBs we do know about suck.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're rallying against generalities that simply don't exist.

No one thinks Rex is a great talent evaluator. Even his supporters acknowlege he has no business in the talent side of the business.

Sanchez has very few supporters, and the majority of them supported him simply because they had no other choice. The guy was a #5 pick and gets paid a lot of money. He wasn't going anywhere. It's essentially a case of if you can't beat him, join him.

At this point, I think you could classify the majority of Jet fans as wanting Rex, Sanchez, and Tebow ALL GONE.

Rex and Mark sucking don't make Tebow any better, and Tebow sucking doesn't make Rex or Sanchez any better.

I think most people are interested in McElroy starting because he's the guy we know the least about. The QBs we do know about suck.

Read your reply, noted.

Such a rapid change I think from the Mark Forever crowd that was here three months ago.

BTW, WE know plenty about Gmac...plenty. He ran a defensive team , running offense in college..ala Saban/Bama. He handed the ball off very well, good on the fake, and he has two or three pass plays, cannot run. He was as accurate in college almost as Tebow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Read your reply, noted.

Such a rapid change I think from the Mark Forever crowd that was here three months ago.

Mark had a lot of support two years ago coming off his second straight solid-to-very-good performance in the playoffs. But by a few months ago, that had eroded into the level of support I described above. The Mark Forever crowd of 2012 probably consisted of less than five people on this board.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No...in my warped *little* world I knew Mark Sanchez was a loser when he opted to gtf out of dodge and take the

NFL starting spot in JETS land, and Tebow was beating the Sooners for the Nat'l title...while your clueless ass was dreaming up some ridiculous bs to tell yourself about Marky mark..

y'all been runnin around fighting over the chance to wipe marks mess up after he spooges all over the place, the rest of the league has been laughin their ass off... (token laughing smiley face excluded)

Funny. Ive never been a sanchez supporter, even when he was The Sanchize.

But keeping dreaming sweet thoughts about Tebow and how he's supposedly a good QB.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It doens't matter if he threw for over 300 yds against the number one d last year.. that was a fluke.

Wow. I guess Pittsburgh being without one of their top defenders had nothing to do with this? Its all because Tebow is the sh!t!

And take out the 1 pas for 80 yards and its a sh!tty game.

But go ahead,.... 300yd GAME!! TEBOW IS THE AWESOME!!

Keep cherry picking numbers and stats and ignore the evidence right in front of your eyes. There is no way in hell Tebow could EVER perform like that with the Jets offense in front of him. Its a team game, and our team stinks. Tebow will be killled behind center with this team.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.


×
×
  • Create New...