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What are your thoughts on going for it on 4th down?


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I ask this because I saw an article on ESPN with Pete Carroll saying he regretted faking a punt.

For those who don't know, there are many advanced statistical experts that believe that going for it on fourth down in most situations is better than punting it. I could go in-depth and explain it myself, but it is kind of complicated.

A New Study on Fourth Downs: Go for It


(Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, runs Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.)

Here’s a thought exercise for you. Imagine that for decades no one ever thought of the punt. Teams knew nothing else than to run or pass on 4th down. And then one day it’s invented. Some guy comes up to a coach and says, “Kick the ball on every 4th down and the other team gets possession 37 yards further down the field.” The coach would think he was crazy: “Wait, you want me to give up one quarter of my opportunities for a first down on every series…just for 35 yards of field position? Do you realize how much that’s going to kill our chances of scoring?”

And that coach would be absolutely right. It’s funny how boxed in our thinking can be. Except for the most desperate of circumstances or with inches to go just outside of field-goal range, today’s N.F.L. coaches will choose to punt.

Every single serious study of 4th-down decisions has found that, in most situations, teams would be better off by going for the conversion attempt rather than kicking. I’ve recently completed a study of 4th-down decisions that confirms what some fans already know, that it pays to be more aggressive. Those short on time might want to skip ahead to the bottom line.

In normal football situations, when neither team is ahead by much, and when the clock is not yet a factor, we can weigh the costs and benefits of each possible decision. Field-goal attempts, punts and conversion attempts can be valued by using a concept called Expected Points. A 1st down at any given yard line has an equivalent point value based on the average of the next score in the game. For example, a 1st down at midfield is worth 1.9 expected points.

Since we know the average punt distances and field-goal percentages from various field positions, we can accurately estimate the expected point values of kicks. And since we know the conversion percentages on 4th-down attempts, we can value those, too. When the values are compared, it becomes clear that going for the first down is the better decision far more often than most people, and most coaches, think.

You might ask: If it’s so obvious, then why don’t coaches go for it more often? There are a number of good explanations. The authors of the football research classic “The Hidden Game of Football” note that in the early days of the sport, it was rare for a team to score more than once all game. A punt basically guaranteed the opponent wouldn’t score on the next drive. Professor David Romer, author of one of the definitive papers on the subject, theorized that coaches are worried more about job security than winning. If a coach goes for it and fails, it’s his fault. But if he punts and loses, well, that’s just football, and his players take the blame.

I buy those explanations, but I also think it has something to do with what economists call Prospect Theory. In short, almost all people tend to fear losses far more than they value equivalent gains. In this perspective, a punt is considered the “break-even” decision. A failed conversion attempt is seen as a loss, and a successful attempt is seen as a gain. But the loss is feared disproportionately, and the result is clouded decision-making.

Above, I wrote “in normal football situations.” When time becomes a factor, or when a team falls far behind, we need a different way to analyze decisions. For these situations we need to rely on a Win Probability model, an index of how likely a team is to win based on all relevant game variables.

There’s an arbitrage opportunity in the N.F.L. right now. The first coach who takes advantage of a more aggressive 4th-down doctrine could win a whole lot of games, and N.F.L. strategy could get a whole lot more interesting.

Now, this is just one of MANY articles, but this one explains it pretty well. Most people will just dismiss it as a bunch of basement nerds who don't know football trying to "gimmick" their way to wins. However, i feel as though the numbers don't lie, and that this concept could actually work at ANY level of football, including the NFL.

With that being said, no team will win anything without players with intangibles!

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I ask this because I saw an article on ESPN with Pete Carroll saying he regretted faking a punt.

For those who don't know, there are many advanced statistical experts that believe that going for it on fourth down in most situations is better than punting it. I could go in-depth and explain it myself, but it is kind of complicated.

Now, this is just one of MANY articles, but this one explains it pretty well. Most people will just dismiss it as a bunch of basement nerds who don't know football trying to "gimmick" their way to wins. However, i feel as though the numbers don't lie, and that this concept could actually work at ANY level of football, including the NFL.

With that being said, no team will win anything without players with intangibles!

too small/couldn't read


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Here's a cool image from the last part of that article:


I bet if he took out the inside your own 30 part of the chart it would reflect even higher data in favor of this if it takes into account failures, and points against due to failures. Just a hunch nothing to back that up statistically

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I bet if he took out the inside your own 30 part of the chart it would reflect even higher data in favor of this if it takes into account failures, and points against due to failures. Just a hunch nothing to back that up statistically

Greg Easterbrook from ESPN tracked Pulaski Academy out of Arkansas whose coach does not punt. His team has punted only once in the last two seasons which included a state championship. This season they converted 35 of 75 (47%) 4th downs regardless of distance. I wish Easterbrook tracked how many points were gained from going for it vs. points allowed by giving the opponent the ball in the scoring position.

Most studies like the one above favor going for 4th 1 and 2 because the conversion rate is high.

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I bet if he took out the inside your own 30 part of the chart it would reflect even higher data in favor of this if it takes into account failures, and points against due to failures. Just a hunch nothing to back that up statistically

It does take failures into account. Either way if it's 4th down inside your own 30, you're not looking good. Going for it on 4th and < 2 is still almost always better than punting. As far as expected value goes, it's the lesser of two evils.

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It does take failures into account. Either way if it's 4th down inside your own 30, you're not looking good. Going for it on 4th and < 2 is still almost always better than punting. As far as expected value goes, it's the lesser of two evils.

Yea but does it take the stat from a team that has a beast punter who can pin you inside the 20? I'm pretty sure all drives in the NFL that start at, or inside your own 20 produces a insanely low percentage of points scored on those drives, you can take other similar studies using your agenda topic, and make a counter to just about anything statistacly IMO.

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