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Draft Position Scenarios


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After the Jets recent loss in glorious fashion, we’re going to start to prepare for the draft. With the loss, the Jets can go as high as the 4thpick in the 2013 NFL Draft and as low as the 20thpick. Now to figure out the scenario for each pick might be a bit hard and to keep this from being a novel I will just do two scenarios: highest pick possible and lowest pick possible.

 

Highest Pick Possible Scenario

Jets lose last two (duh!)

Bills win in week 16

Dolphins beat Patriots in week 17

Cleveland win last two

Chargers win in week 17

Titans win last two

Eagles win last two

Lions win last two

Buccaneers win a game

Cardinals win last two

Saints beat the Cowboys in week 16

Panthers win last two

 

If all of that happens then the Jets would finish at 6-10 and would be in a 3-way tie for the 4th worst record in the league. According to the NFL the first tiebreaker for the draft order is strength of schedule, which as of now and not including anything from the scenario goes as such:

 

Jets – 50.2% (112-110-2)

Eagles – 51.3% (115-109-0)

Lions – 56.5% (126-98-2)

 

Jets have clinched over the Lions since they share 8 common opponents and the Lions division rivals play each other, so they can’t make-up the 14 game difference so it’s down to Jets vs. Eagles. The Jets and Eagles share two common opponents in the Cardinals and Steelers.

 

The list below will show the records of the teams in order to make the scenario work and nothing else so some teams might be missing a game or two.

 

Jets Opponents

Bills x2 – 7-9

Dolphins x2 – 7-9

Patriots x2 – 10-5

Steelers – 7-8

Chargers – 7-9

Titans – 7-9

Texans – 12-2

Jaguars – 2-13

Colts – 9-5

49ers – 10-4-1

Rams – 6-8-1/7-7-1

Seahawks – 9-5

Cardinals – 7-9

 

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 124-118-2 or 125-119(51.2%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 125-117-2 or 126-118(51.6%)

 

Week 16

Colts at Chiefs (0-1 or 1-0)

Bengals at Steelers (0-1 or 1-0)

Patriots at Jaguars (1-2 or 2-1)

Vikings at Texans (0-1 or 1-0)

Seahawks at 49ers (1-1)

Week 17

Texans at Colts (1-1)

Rams at Seahawks (1-1)

 

Best case scenario – Chiefs, Bengals, Jaguars, & Vikings win(4-8)

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 128-126-2 or 129-127(50.4%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 129-125-2 or 130-126(50.7%)

 

Eagles opponents

Cowboys x2 – 8-7

Giants x2 – 8-7

Redskins x2 – 8-7

Cardinals – 7-9

Lions – 6-10

Saints – 7-9

Falcons – 13-3/12-4

Bucs – 7-9

Panthers – 7-9

Bengals – 8-6

Ravens – 9-5

Browns – 7-9

Steelers – 7-8

 

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 126-119(51.4%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 125-120(51%)

 

Week 16

Bengals at Steelers (1-1)

Giants at Ravens (1-2 or 2-1)

Week 17

Ravens at Bengals (1-1)

Bears at Lions (0-1 or 1-0)

Cowboys at Redskins (2-2)

 

Best case scenario – Giants and Lions win (7-5)

Total if Tampa wins week 16 – 132-124(51.6%)

Total if Tampa wins week 17 – 131-125(51.1%)

 

Basically the Jets have a to see who Tampa beats and how week 16 folds out since if Tampa wins in week 16 then the Jets have a game in hand in SOS going into the rest of the games for the scenario games otherwise Philly will have the game advantage.

 

In case you were wondering, there is a scenario in which the Jets tie with the Chargers and Raiders along with Philly and Detroit for the 3rdpick but they would lose to them both in strength of schedule since they are ahead by 10+ games so it’s better to concede the 3rdpick to the Raiders and win the tiebreaker for 4th.

 

Lowest Pick Scenario

 

This one will have the Jets finishing at 8-8 with as few ties as possible in order to contend for a higher spot. I’m not sure how this will work as in this scenario an 8-8 team or a 9-7 team would make the NFC playoffs thus changing how many teams are tied for the last spot at pick number 20 since 21-32 are reserved for playoff teams.

 

The scenario goes as follows:

Jets win last 2

Vikings lose last 2

Bears lose last 2

Giants lose 1 or both

Cowboys or Redskins lose last 2

All 7 win teams lose both games

All 6 win teams lose at least once

Rams lose once

 

It’s a bit confusing but in these 3 scenarios the Bears and possibly the Vikings along with either one or two of the following: Giants, Cowboys & Redskins would be tied with the Jets at 8-8.

 

So either way we would have a 4-way tie for the best record for a team not in the playoffs.

 

Current strength of schedule not using scenario

Jets – 112-110-2 (50.2%)

Bears – 115-107-2(51.8%) Bears +3

Giants – 118-105-1(52.9%) Giants +5.5

Vikings – 116-106-2(52.3%) Vikings +4

Cowboys – 115-109(51.3%) Cowboys +2

Redskins – 112-111-1(50.2%) Jets +.5

 

The above is not good when it comes to tiebreakers as the Jets must have the best strength of schedule in this case to get the higher pick. To keep it short I won’t do the math in full but basically vs. the NFC North teams the Jets share at least 8 common opponents, so for the Jets to have any chance the Patriots must win out plus the Bucs and Panthers must lose out. For the NFC East teams the Jets must have the AFC North teams minus Pittsburgh and the NFC South teams lose while the AFC South and Cardinals win out.

 

With the way the schedule is set-up though with all division match-ups in week 17, I don’t see a way for the Jets to get the highest pick since in any scenario the Jets have to catch up to either the Vikings, Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys along with the Bears who each will be increasing their strength of schedule by 3(division rival gets 2) since they have to lose out to meet this criteria while the Jets lose 3 since they have to win to get into this position. With that huge swing in mind here’s how it would look when you just add the three games to each of the team’s strength of schedule.

 

Current strength of schedule with the 3 game swing:

Jets – 112-113-2

Bears – 118-107-2 Bears +6

Giants – 121-105-1 Giants +8.5

Vikings – 119-106-2 Vikings +7

Cowboys – 118-109 Cowboys +5

Redskins – 115-111-1 Redskins +2.5

 

Looking at this this would mean that the Jets at best could probably pass only the Redskins while falling short of the Cowboys by a game or two which means the best case scenario would be having the Redskins going 8-8 and the Jets just barely passing them in strength of schedule to get the 18thpick of the draft otherwise it’ll be the 17thpick.

 

So in conclusion the Jets can possibly draft as high as 4thand as low as 18thtune in next week when this stuff becomes a heck of a lot easier.

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If the Jets don't drop the last two, I'll be pissed. This always play to win nonsense is dumb martyrdom at its best and it's exactly why we got stuck with Vernon ****ing Gholston.

There's literally nothing good that can ever come from losing. Nothing.

(To reduce confusion, the above is another bitonti classic)

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If the Jets don't drop the last two, I'll be pissed. This always play to win nonsense is dumb martyrdom at its best and it's exactly why we got stuck with Vernon ****ing Gholston.

You know better than this. There is literally zero chance we drop the last two. Bonus: McElroy shows enough that Rex anoints him the starter for 2013 and then we spend all our picks on defense. Done and done.

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If you put the onus on a new GM that Rex has to be coach, you are saddling him.

Only a retard would do that. Wait, Woody is our owner, nevermind.

I've been of the opinion for a while now that the new GM should be able to make that decision. Tannenbaum is just far more culpable for our predicament. Regardless of how much input Rex gave him, he ultimately made the decisions to draft and extend Sanchez. He's been here 7 years and the roster has regressed since 2010. For that he deserves the ax first. Simple enough.

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after reading all the imaginations of how 2013 will look, all the heavy lifting to get rid of sanchez and how a new GM wouldn't want Mark or an existing HC the most likely change i see is Sparano getting fired. That's it. Sanchez, Rex and Tanny all come back. Alex Smith or Vick to compete with Mark or whatever.

2014 is the big change year.

to be clear Im not endorsing this outcome but i am predicting it. lost in all this discussion about firing Tanny is that Woody has no other football minds to lean on (including his own). and firing all these people doesn't change the fact that Woody has to pay mark Sanchez next year no matter what.

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Color me surprised.

you can point to Andrew Luck and John Elway as an example where losing was a good thing. I can point to every other losing team, ever. The exception doesn't disprove the rule. Some teams have been losing for decades. All it does is make them a loser. Statistically you'd rather be a winner. To be in the rabbit hole so deep that losing is good... it's unhealthy way to think and it's no way to run a pro football team.

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Get the 14th overall pick. Draft Tyler Eifert in Round One, then Tyler Wilson in Round Two. Start McElroy for the first half of 13, then let Wilson play. Boom. Done. Blam.

Tyler Wilson has started something in the neighborhood of 25 games. I'm not even going to get into your continued fetishization of ND tight ends.

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you can point to Andrew Luck and John Elway as an example where losing was a good thing. I can point to every other losing team, ever. The exception doesn't disprove the rule. Some teams have been losing for decades. All it does is make them a loser. Statistically you'd rather be a winner. To be in the rabbit hole so deep that losing is good... it's unhealthy way to think and it's no way to run a pro football team.

Luckily the FO has stamped their disapproval otherwise I would be recruiting you to explain this to dummy Cub fans out there who were tossing away 2013 in June of 2012.

Not that the Cubs will win anything in 2013...they're just not going to be sh*t your pants bad like last year.

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If the Jets don't drop the last two, I'll be pissed. This always play to win nonsense is dumb martyrdom at its best and it's exactly why we got stuck with Vernon ****ing Gholston.

Same here. But you know they will find a way to screw us by winning when it doesn't count and hurt our draft position.

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Get the 14th overall pick. Draft Tyler Eifert in Round One, then Tyler Wilson in Round Two. Start McElroy for the first half of 13, then let Wilson play. Boom. Done. Blam.

Eifert is a perfect Jet's pick -- 2nd round talent drafted in the 1st round. And, Wilson almost certainly will not be around when we pick in the 2nd round.

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Luckily the FO has stamped their disapproval otherwise I would be recruiting you to explain this to dummy Cub fans out there who were tossing away 2013 in June of 2012.

Not that the Cubs will win anything in 2013...they're just not going to be sh*t your pants bad like last year.

Bitonti and Gato taking a position together. That's when you know you're really on to something.

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you can point to Andrew Luck and John Elway as an example where losing was a good thing. I can point to every other losing team, ever. The exception doesn't disprove the rule. Some teams have been losing for decades. All it does is make them a loser. Statistically you'd rather be a winner. To be in the rabbit hole so deep that losing is good... it's unhealthy way to think and it's no way to run a pro football team.

I'm all for winning, but the Jets seem to be that 8-8 team (give or take a loss or win) every year, over and over and over. 8-8 teams never seem to improve. They just continue to be 8-8. Teams that win seem to know how to draft, sign players, trade players, etc. Teams like the (49ers for like twenty years), Patriots (over the past 15 years), Hell even the Eagles for like ten years with Reid/McNabb, and even the Giants over the past 7 years.

The Jets just seem to dump QBs and Coaches and never really get better. We are always in the same spot. No QB. No real coach who knows how to win or build a winner or lead. Or a coach who wants out. Or a GM who knows how to scout talent. And now it seems a GM who has no clue how to finagle numbers under a cap.

I think the Jets finish 8-8 as the Chargers are done and the Bills are horrible. Where does that leave us? Same place as last year, same place as they were a few years ago, same place they were under Herm, under Al Groh. Under everybody. They are always the 8-8 team that can't seem to ever get over the hump and become a division winner.

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I think the Jets finish 8-8 as the Chargers are done and the Bills are horrible. Where does that leave us? Same place as last year, same place as they were a few years ago, same place they were under Herm, under Al Groh. Under everybody. They are always the 8-8 team that can't seem to ever get over the hump and become a division winner.

that's true but 6-10 is still better than 8-8. And 9-7 is better than that. Rooting for the team to lose is no way to go through life.

i saw Vernon Gholston's name in this thread (it wouldn't be a draft thread without it) serious question how much better are the Jets with Darren McFadden?

yeah of course DMC is better but seriously, he'd be a pariah in this town if he had that career here.

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that's true but 6-10 is still better than 8-8. And 9-7 is better than that. Rooting for the team to lose is no way to go through life.

i saw Vernon Gholston's name in this thread (it wouldn't be a draft thread without it) serious question how much better are the Jets with Darren McFadden?

yeah of course DMC is better but seriously, he'd be a pariah in this town if he had that career here.

I think the assumption is that we'd have Matt Ryan, not McFadden.

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